Grim outlook for exports as trade war escalates

[DrTuner]

5 hours ago, neeray said:

I know he doesn't listen to his subordinates but it would be nice if somebody could make this unqualified POTUS understand that it is the American consumers who ultimately pay the hefty tariffs, not China.

There's a fairly easy way to avoid that. Don't buy Chinese crap. I for one am all for it, seeing what China does with their money. Slap on 50000%.

[Eric Loh]

3 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

Disagree, and it sounds like your opinions have been co-opted by the Borg.

Surprising as many of your posts indicate a fairly balanced view.

 

The Chinese have already backed down multiple times -- from their perspective.

They have little retaliatory leverage -- mostly because they have no useful allies (other than Russia).

In other words, nobody likes them.

 

The trade war is not a grand plan to undermine China's rise.

It is, however, a grand plan to undermine their lying, cheating and stealing everything they can.

Surely you are aware of their industrial, pervasive policies to play by their own rules?

 

The net result of the trade war is that many global businesses have already started and will continue to escalate their move out of China and disentaglement with the Chinese economy. 

This is what will squash much of the Chinese ambitions.

US political parties are ALL united on fighting China, so China can't rely on the 4 or 8 year election cycles.

It will be another entire generation 20-30 years before Americans trust the Chinese, and hopefully longer as they are demonstrably, consistently untrustworthy.

The case about unfair trading practices spouted by Trump to support his tariff policy are way of mark. He is doing this for his domestic base and listening to hawkish rhetoric from his cabinet to cap China's meteorical economic rise in just a short 30-40 years. China is just seem an easy punching bag but he is wrong and the tariff war will hurt him as much as it hurt China.

 

First, he accused China of 'forced technology transfer' arguing that US companies must turn over the blueprint of proprietary technologies and operating systems in order to do business in China. This transfer is alleged to take place within the JV structure arrangements. Transfer of technology is in the heart of agreements of all JV and both sides will have to agree on the transfer.   This not only happen in China but every where in the world including Thailand. Companies also leverage on transfer of technology to gain competitive commercial benefits in the host countries. Portraying USA as a innocent victims is totally dishonest. 

 

Then the gem about China sponsoring SOE unfairly aimed at getting competitive supremacy from free and open markets like USA which they attest played by different rules. Yet, even developed countries have relied on industrial policy to achieve national economic and competitive objectives. Ain't the powerful military-industrial industry state-sponsored, tax payer funded in USA. Nasa, internet, semi-conductors, nuclear power are all state funded. I will add pharmaceutical innovations too. 

 

There is a reason why US companies are flocking to China and China will remain a market so large that companies can't ignore. The big companies like Apple, Caterpillar, 3M generate more than half their revenue from China. They are hurt by the tariffs but unlikely to leave because their eco-system are already entrenched in China. 

 

You don't have to like China to trade with China but you can't ignore the last big frontier for doing business.   

[connda]

Given Thailand's tariffs, Thailand doesn't have much room to complain about the US.  Don't agree - go buy a bottle of imported wine and think about it while having a glass.
Thailand should be happy that the US has China in the tariff gun-sights and not Thailand. 

[billd766]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Hoping he will find time to retrospect his conduct and decide he take solace in a wat and announced he is not taking the self anointed post. He will also surrender himself to the military court on treason charges. 

Nice work if it happens but I think I will see 6 feet of snow here in rural Khampaeng Phet before he does that.

 

If he did get that far his mate Apirat will stage yet another coup and grant him amnesty.

[Traubert]

6 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

I don't like Trump, and don't really care about American politics.

 

However, both countries pay a price.

 

The price that China pays ultimately is strategically significant as American (and other foreign) companies simply exit the Chinese market for others.  

 

It's not as simply as just the tariffs alone.

Yup, any right thinking manufacturer or service provider needs to withdraw from a domestic market representing 20% of the world market.

 

The whole argument is because China won't let the Americans in on their own terms.

 

Example. Hollywood films are restricted to 34 releases a year in China, because the Government don't want the drugs, violence, crime, foul language and bodycount extravaganzas that Hollywood films are, on general view. China has the biggest box office in the world by several miles. Companies should walk away from that?

 

It's widely known that countries that trade with America have to accept American media. The Chinese Government wont entertain it and the people dont want it.

 

Now they want the Chinese to start amending their statute book to suit. The f*****g cheek of it.

 

Wait until the petro-yuan starts appearing and Donald and his cohorts will be finished.

[DrTuner]

28 minutes ago, Traubert said:

It's widely known that countries that trade with America have to accept American media. The Chinese Government wont entertain it and the people dont want it.

Chinese people don't get any say. It's commieland.

[RobbyXNorway]

The US blow-out will come when OPEC and/or Saudi-Arabia opens oil sales in other currencies than the US dollar.

 

The entire tariff-charade is a joke. It is, like others have said, not China that pays this tariff, but the end-user. The consumer is the one who foots the bill. If the price increases so much its no longer competitive and the sales drop, sure THAT does hurt chinese exports. But 25%? I doubt that makes much of a bump.

 

And remember, Thailand was in US crosshairs not so long ago over currency manipulation. Any country that carries a large trade surplus against the US will be in the crosshairs.

 

The big factor here is the psychology I think. This war of words, if it escalates, will crush the overinflated stockmarkets and might send the global economy in the shitter for a long time. But the one that will be the most hurt, in my opinion, is the USA. So for me, this is Trump putting a bullet in the head of the american eagle.

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Chinese people don't get any say. It's commieland.

Hello Mr McCarthy.

 

Does the acronym VPN mean anything to you?

 

Even the cheapest TV's (television, sir, invented in 1907, in England, about the same time you were born) in China have onboard computers now and are linked to a mobile phone through bluetooth.

 

Have a look at iQiYi, it blows Netflix and HBO out of the water.

[55Jay]

13 hours ago, Khunbilly said:

Last week the headline was "US/China trade war won't affect Thailand"

I recalled the same thing when I saw this article. 

[DrTuner]

9 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Does the acronym VPN mean anything to you?

Yes. Means to access western media, the one you just said Chinese don't want. 

 

Looks like they reeeaaaally don't want any of it:

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/13/media/avengers-endgame-box-office-china/index.html

 

Quote

The Disney (DIS) and Marvel movie pulled in $18.3 million in China over the weekend, bringing its total earnings to $603 million and cementing its place as the country's highest-grossing foreign film ever, according to industry tracker Ent Group. "Endgame" is only the third movie — and the first foreign title — to cross the $600 million mark in China.

 

I just watched Wandering Earth last week. Gringeworthy. But hey they like it over western scifi, right? So much so they'd never flock out of the country the first time they get the chance. 

[Fex Bluse]

15 hours ago, Traubert said:

Yup, any right thinking manufacturer or service provider needs to withdraw from a domestic market representing 20% of the world market.

 

The whole argument is because China won't let the Americans in on their own terms.

 

Example. Hollywood films are restricted to 34 releases a year in China, because the Government don't want the drugs, violence, crime, foul language and bodycount extravaganzas that Hollywood films are, on general view. China has the biggest box office in the world by several miles. Companies should walk away from that?

 

It's widely known that countries that trade with America have to accept American media. The Chinese Government wont entertain it and the people dont want it.

 

Now they want the Chinese to start amending their statute book to suit. The f*****g cheek of it.

 

Wait until the petro-yuan starts appearing and Donald and his cohorts will be finished.

I'm not sure why everyone thinks in such black and white, short term ways. 

 

I like women, and women in Thailand are:

1. abundant

2. inexpensive

3. approachable 

But, I won't bed every such woman I see because I value a) my marriage, b) finances and c) health. I have a longer term view of the situation, rather than just sex. 

 

I acknowledge China is a massive, potentially profitable market. And it is ideal to be in that market. 

 

However, if being in the market under Chinese terms is a severe long-term risk to national security and economic security, then the short-term economic gains should be made a 2nd order priority so that the 20, 30, 50 year strategy is sound. 

[tlandtday]

15 hours ago, RobbyXNorway said:

The US blow-out will come when OPEC and/or Saudi-Arabia opens oil sales in other currencies than the US dollar.

 

The entire tariff-charade is a joke. It is, like others have said, not China that pays this tariff, but the end-user. The consumer is the one who foots the bill. If the price increases so much its no longer competitive and the sales drop, sure THAT does hurt chinese exports. But 25%? I doubt that makes much of a bump.

 

And remember, Thailand was in US crosshairs not so long ago over currency manipulation. Any country that carries a large trade surplus against the US will be in the crosshairs.

 

The big factor here is the psychology I think. This war of words, if it escalates, will crush the overinflated stockmarkets and might send the global economy in the shitter for a long time. But the one that will be the most hurt, in my opinion, is the USA. So for me, this is Trump putting a bullet in the head of the american eagle.

Tariffs work plain and simple.  Why do you think China is retaliating if they don't work lol.  Wake up.

[billd766]

15 hours ago, Benroon said:

Making those products uncompetitive so they won't be imported - that's the point of tariffs - you price the competition out of the business.

 

Why is that so difficult to understand ?

But it is a two way street. China doesn't have to import that much stuff from the USA. Already US farmers have a surplus because China isn't buying as much food.

 

Big ticket items such as Boeing airliners will continue for a while until China buys Airbus products plus China's own civil aircraft industry is growing by leaps and bounds.

[losworld]

19 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

The case about unfair trading practices spouted by Trump to support his tariff policy are way of mark. He is doing this for his domestic base and listening to hawkish rhetoric from his cabinet to cap China's meteorical economic rise in just a short 30-40 years. China is just seem an easy punching bag but he is wrong and the tariff war will hurt him as much as it hurt China.

 

First, he accused China of 'forced technology transfer' arguing that US companies must turn over the blueprint of proprietary technologies and operating systems in order to do business in China. This transfer is alleged to take place within the JV structure arrangements. Transfer of technology is in the heart of agreements of all JV and both sides will have to agree on the transfer.   This not only happen in China but every where in the world including Thailand. Companies also leverage on transfer of technology to gain competitive commercial benefits in the host countries. Portraying USA as a innocent victims is totally dishonest. 

 

Then the gem about China sponsoring SOE unfairly aimed at getting competitive supremacy from free and open markets like USA which they attest played by different rules. Yet, even developed countries have relied on industrial policy to achieve national economic and competitive objectives. Ain't the powerful military-industrial industry state-sponsored, tax payer funded in USA. Nasa, internet, semi-conductors, nuclear power are all state funded. I will add pharmaceutical innovations too. 

 

There is a reason why US companies are flocking to China and China will remain a market so large that companies can't ignore. The big companies like Apple, Caterpillar, 3M generate more than half their revenue from China. They are hurt by the tariffs but unlikely to leave because their eco-system are already entrenched in China. 

 

You don't have to like China to trade with China but you can't ignore the last big frontier for doing business.   

Why do you think their industries are growing so quickly... is it Chinese innovation?  greater productivity? I think not.  It is largely due to currency manipulation, state financing and subsidization, slave wages, environmental disregard, intellectual property theft and good old dumping.  Do you realize that companies such as Huawei are actually state enterprises?  China does not play fairly and this is what this trade war is all about.

[losworld]

On 5/13/2019 at 9:16 AM, toenail said:

Trump fans believe he was a “great businessman”. Since Trumpsters do not do much outside reading, they fail to realized Trump Corp. filed bankruptcy six times, his business ventures such as Trump steaks, Trump Vodka, Trump Airlines, Trump Ice ( bottled water), Trump Network, New Jersey Generals ( football team), Trump Magazine, Trump’s “The Game” by Milton Bradley, Trump Casinos. And the greatest con artist on earth has lost over a Billion $$$ during a ten year period -1985-1994; thus, he avoided paying taxes. Trump is totally incompetent as a businessman or world leader. The upswing of USA’s economy started over 10 years ago with Obama inheriting the financial bank crisis from Bush ( Research this) Yet, the Trump supporters who only watch Fox Propaganda News will think this imposter walks on water ( including the evangelical community that are racists). The American farmer , who are Trump supporters, no longer can depend on exporting their soy beans, corn, & pork to Asian countries. USA farmers can barely exist due to Trump’s poor business decisions. This is a sad regime that has taken over America. 

Ridiculous biased post lol.

[Eric Loh]

Just watch for the non tariff retaliation that China will use that will bring lots of pain to USA businesses. China has done this kind of retaliation in previous spats with South Korea and Japan. US businesses can be targeted in a slow down in Chinese administration, approvals and customs processing procedures. At it is now, perishable goods from USA have been delayed by custom procedures or sent back due to non compliance. The Chinese people have also launched campaigns to stop buying Japanese goods and can easily rejuvenate one against US products sold in China. They are very nationalistic and communal in facing external threats.  

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 5/13/2019 at 8:20 AM, nobodysfriend said:

BS ! It is not China who pays the tariffs , it is the IMPORTERS of chinese goods who pay when their ordered chinese merchandise arrives in the US . That means that they will have to raise the prices for their imported stuff and the american consumer will pay it .

The Chinese are indirectly paying their fair share of the tariffs, since most exporters cut prices to stay competitive.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-17/chinese-factories-cut-prices-lay-off-workers-in-trade-war-ubs

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/china-is-paying-for-most-of-trump-s-trade-war-research-says

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, losworld said:

Why do you think their industries are growing so quickly... is it Chinese innovation?  greater productivity? I think not.  It is largely due to currency manipulation, state financing and subsidization, slave wages, environmental disregard, intellectual property theft and good old dumping.  Do you realize that companies such as Huawei are actually state enterprises?  China does not play fairly and this is what this trade war is all about.

In the word of Deng Xiping “doesn’t matter whether the cat is white or black as long as it catches the rat”. Started China economic reform to be the second largest global economy in less time that most western countries. 

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

They are very nationalistic and communal in facing external threats.  

That's good, then the strategy that worked with USSR will work a treat. Isolate and let them screw it all up by themselves.

[White Christmas13]

18 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Chinese people don't get any say. It's commieland.

Yes and Thailand is a democracy

[Eric Loh]

21 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That's good, then the strategy that worked with USSR will work a treat. Isolate and let them screw it all up by themselves.

Will work in USSR but the fallouts are far from the same. China home to hundreds of US companies and a GDP of 13 trillion usd. Their hurt will be felt around the world. 

[DrTuner]

19 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Will work in USSR but the fallouts are far from the same. China home to hundreds of US companies and a GDP of 13 trillion usd. Their hurt will be felt around the world. 

Worth it. Time to repatriate manufacturing and bring quality back.

[Fex Bluse]

2 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Just watch for the non tariff retaliation that China will use that will bring lots of pain to USA businesses. China has done this kind of retaliation in previous spats with South Korea and Japan. US businesses can be targeted in a slow down in Chinese administration, approvals and customs processing procedures. At it is now, perishable goods from USA have been delayed by custom procedures or sent back due to non compliance. The Chinese people have also launched campaigns to stop buying Japanese goods and can easily rejuvenate one against US products sold in China. They are very nationalistic and communal in facing external threats.  

Let's see how it goes. None of us really knows as it's too complex. 

 

The Chinese are crafty, mostly in their ability to deceive. It's impressive, but there may come a time when much of world will shun them. And then they'll be left with their massive, mostly poor market. 

[MaxLee]

On 5/13/2019 at 2:58 AM, webfact said:

Grim outlook for exports as trade war escalates

and in the mean time the IMPORTS and overseas travels among the rich and influential in the land of smiles will rise beyond means, slowly but surely.

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Worth it. Time to repatriate manufacturing and bring quality back.

There are many reasons as to why companies move overseas and not manufacture at their home base. 

[GroveHillWanderer]

3 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The Chinese are indirectly paying their fair share of the tariffs, since most exporters cut prices to stay competitive.

Not according to a study just published by researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Princeton and Columbia Universities, who say that:

 

Quote

"We find that the U.S. tariffs were almost completely passed through into U.S. domestic prices, so that the entire incidence of the tariffs fell on domestic consumers and importers up to now, with no impact so far on the prices received by foreign exporters,” the economists wrote.

 

“We also find that U.S. producers responded to reduced import competition by raising their prices.”

So the supposed benefit of US consumers  being able to buy cheaper alternatives from domestic producers does not seem to have come to fruition either.

 

Trump Tariffs costing US consumers $1.4 billion per month

Edited May 14, 2019 by GroveHillWanderer

[worgeordie]

I thought NOTHING effects "Teflon Thailand". so i take it this is fake news.

 

regards worgeordie

[CGW]

5 hours ago, losworld said:

It is largely due to currency manipulation, state financing and subsidization, slave wages, environmental disregard, intellectual property theft and good old dumping

Were these not the primary reasons many American companies choose to relocate to China?

[CGW]

3 hours ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

John Logie Baird, was a Scotsman.

Who lived in England when he invented TV ????

Therefore ????

[billd766]

5 hours ago, DrTuner said:

That's good, then the strategy that worked with USSR will work a treat. Isolate and let them screw it all up by themselves.

IMHO  it is the USA that needs Isolating judging by the current POTUS "work" over the past 2 years or so.

 

 

5 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Worth it. Time to repatriate manufacturing and bring quality back.

Have you any idea of the cost of doing that, how long it will take or who will have to pay for it?

 

Do you realise why companies went overseas with jobs? To cut the cost of labour to keep their prices down and their profits up.

 

Take Apple as an example.

 

How much will it cost to build new factories in the USA?

Where will Apple find enough qualified people to run those factories and at what salaries?

If/When Apple does that and produces an iPhone for the US market, paying US wages, what will its price be and who will be able to afford one?