Thai first quarter GDP growth year-on-year seen at lowest in nearly four years as exports sag - Reuters poll

[webfact]

Thai first quarter GDP growth year-on-year seen at lowest in nearly four years as exports sag - Reuters poll

By Orathai Sriring

 

FILE PHOTO: A view of the port of Bangkok, Thailand, May 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economic growth likely picked up in January-March from the previous three months but the annual pace likely was the weakest for any quarter in almost four years, a Reuters poll showed.

 

Weak exports, a key driver of Thai growth, and private investment offset some of the boost from higher consumption and public spending, analysts say.

 

For seasonally-adjusted quarterly growth, the median for 13 economists in the poll was 1.4% in the first quarter. That would top the previous period's 0.8% and be the fastest on-quarter pace in a year.

 

For growth on a yearly basis, the median for 17 economists giving forecasts was 3.0% in January-March - which would be the weakest since 2015's second quarter. The annual pace for October-December was 3.7%.

 

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong said on Thursday first-quarter growth might not look good as exports fell.

 

Charnoon Boonnuch, a Nomura economist in Singapore, expects annual growth of just 2.7%, and said escalating trade tensions likely will worsen the export performance and "continue to weigh on growth".

 

"Combined with domestic political uncertainty, we see downside risks to our full-year 2019 GDP growth forecast of 3.4%," he added.

 

The poll's forecast for full-year 2019 growth was 3.7%, slowing from last year's 4.1%, the best pace in six years.

 

(Fo graphic on Thai GDP, exports, consumption and public investment, click

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy is heavily reliant on external demand, but exports have contracted this year amid global trade tensions while tourism has slowed.

 

Political uncertainty is hanging over the economy as a new government has yet to be formed after a March 24 election, the first since a 2014 army coup.

 

That has kept investors away, Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak said this week.

 

Most economists think the central bank will hold its policy interest rate steady throughout 2019.

 

The National Economic and Social Development Council, which compiles GDP data, has forecast 2019 growth of 3.5% to 4.5%, with exports up 4.1%. It may cut them on Monday.

 

In January-March, exports fell 3.6% from a year earlier, and declined 3.8% from the previous three months, while annual growth in foreign tourist numbers slowed to 1.5%, according to the central bank.

 

First-quarter private investment declined 1.3% year-on-year, while growth in consumption slowed to 3.5%.

 

Government investment spending rose 7% in the March quarter from a year earlier, finance ministry data showed.

 

(Additional reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai and Kitiphong Thaichareon; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-05-17

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[Cadbury]

It was reported somewhere else that if the US continue indefinitely with the round of latest 360 billion tariffs then Thai export growth could end up at zero. What will that do to the GDP growth? There will be some squeals and tears and excuses from Somkid then. 

Plus the EU has just signed a free trade agreement with Vietnam and that will put Thailand at further disadvantage so far as exports go. 

 

[Chris Lawrence]

That smart lady was saving the rice for a day like this.

 

Then the guy with the fancy lapels and little mate with the nice Mickey Mouse watch' borrowed money from the laundry guys who also make good fried rice.

 

So something in between all of that things may have gone wrong?

 

Just a guess?  I am trying to keep it simple so we here at TV can understand.

[Eric Loh]

Somkid, you are FIRED!

[garyk]

Thailand has aligned with China totally now. Thailand, China used to taking advantage of the US now feel's the pain. Thailand has pretty much alienated all western countries, tourism and expat's to visit and live in Thailand will dry up and the people will suffer horribly.  

It will get so bad soon that Thailand will start changing their laws, but it will be too late IMO. 

Way overdue IMO, let them eat their rice, and dream about the past good times when relations with the western countries were good.

Edited May 17, 2019 by garyk

[trainman34014]

And still the Baht keeps heading towards orbit !

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Cadbury said:

It was reported somewhere else that if the US continue indefinitely with the round of latest 360 billion tariffs then Thai export growth could end up at zero. What will that do to the GDP growth? There will be some squeals and tears and excuses from Somkid then. 

And slap on that the reliance on Chinese tourists they've put their bets on. The squeeze is here. Somnamnaa.

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, garyk said:

Thailand has aligned with China totally now. Thailand, China used to taking advantage of the US now feel's the pain. Thailand has pretty much alienated all western countries, tourism and expat's to visit and live in Thailand will dry up and the people will suffer horribly.  

It will get so bad soon that Thailand will start changing their laws, but it will be too late IMO. 

Way overdue IMO, let them eat their rice, and dream about the past good times when relations with the western countries were good.

Maybe the silver lining is that Thailand largest trading partners are not all western countries. Actually of top 10 countries, only USA and Australia who is more an Asia Pacific country. China happen to be top and also in tourism. Doubt a small country like Thailand can alienate all those big powerful western countries. 

[mok199]

I'm sure after the blame , the fudging will sweeten the bitter pill...

[Geoffggi]

14 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

And still the Baht keeps heading towards orbit !

What goes up must surely someday come down only the speed in which it does so is in question..............

Edited May 18, 2019 by Geoffggi

[spidermike007]

Prayuth should lose his job for this reason alone. When you combine the other 25 major areas where he is failing, installing him as PM for the next five years is about the dumbest thing this nation could possibly do, and the price to be paid for this act of insanity, is going to be huge. The army has shown that they are good at ordering their subordinates to clean their rooms and barracks, and obey orders. But, they are not good for much else, much less running the nation. They must go. 

 

Hopefully, due to all of this economic turmoil, the baht will soon begin to drop to it's rightful place. 

[toenail]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Prayuth should lose his job for this reason alone. When you combine the other 25 major areas where he is failing, installing him as PM for the next five years is about the dumbest thing this nation could possibly do, and the price to be paid for this act of insanity, is going to be huge. The army has shown that they are good at ordering their subordinates to clean their rooms and barracks, and obey orders. But, they are not good for much else, much less running the nation. They must go. 

 

Hopefully, due to all of this economic turmoil, the baht will soon begin to drop to it's rightful place. 

The Future Forward political party was the answer- An educated professor and an international savy young Thai businessman that cares about Thailand’s future, not keeping it muffled and strapped down to old politics. 

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, toenail said:

The Future Forward political party was the answer- An educated professor and an international savy young Thai businessman that cares about Thailand’s future, not keeping it muffled and strapped down to old politics. 

I completely agree. Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit would have made a great PM. He is savvy, unlike the hapless incompetent in charge right now, has great business experience, and could have led Thailand out of the backward wilderness it is currently in. The army has no place in politics. It is all about the money and the power. It has nothing to do with the well being of the Thai people. They could not care less. 

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, toenail said:

The Future Forward political party was the answer- An educated professor and an international savy young Thai businessman that cares about Thailand’s future, not keeping it muffled and strapped down to old politics. 

That the junta are trying to get rid of him in any way possible confirms Thanatorn would be good for Thailand. The opposite of the hapless usurpers.

[Srikcir]

18 hours ago, DrTuner said:

And slap on that the reliance on Chinese tourists they've put their bets on. The squeeze is here. Somnamnaa.

Baht is also stronger against Chinese currency meaning Chinese tourists number will drop too.

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1100763-baht-is-rising-fast/#comments

[Srikcir]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

"Combined with domestic political uncertainty, we see downside risks to our full-year 2019 GDP growth forecast of 3.4%,"

It took the Prayut regime four years to restore GDP growth rate experienced in 2012 prior to the economic destruction by Democrat protests and coup. And a large part of that "new" growth was increasing foreign tourism to contribute GDP growth rate by almost 5% (from GDP rate 7% to GDP rate 12%). Now between the Chinese economy slowing and the baht remaining high, Thailand stands to lose even that additional growth.

[Srikcir]

22 hours ago, webfact said:

The National Economic and Social Development Council, which compiles GDP data, has forecast 2019 growth of 3.5% to 4.5%, with exports up 4.1%. It may cut them on Monday.

Maybe the NESDC should limit itself to compilation and not analysis.

[mommysboy]

The Thai economy is starting to resemble that of the UK, USA, and many others: weak growth, stagnant wages, rising prices, and altogether a failing economic model.  Yet more tough times ahead for at least the next decade.

Edited May 18, 2019 by mommysboy

[JASON THAI]

Don't worry they will get all the farangs that live in Thailand to pay oh I forgot thy are already trying to do this with there new visa rules :) 

[berrec]

20 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

And still the Baht keeps heading towards orbit !

OMG let the backside fall out of the Thai Baht .................the AUS exchange rate is killing me..............

[Eric Loh]

Compare to Thailand ASEAN peers who have the same kind of economy, the junta should just leave office and hand over to a more competent elected government.

 

2019 Q1 GDP

Malaysia 4.5%

Vietnam 6.79%

Philippines 5.6%

Indonesia 5.06%

Thailand 1.4%

 

[Number 6]

2.7% growth, for a developing country that's pretty much 'negative growth'. Even the US expects similar.

 

And the baht is through the roof, surreal.

 

Thailand debt in such a state interest rates need to stay high. Even mortgage debt is mishandled.

 

This China thing, if it really impacts the nation could turn everything upside down.

 

The strength of the thb is obviously manipulation. Exit black money stage right.

 

[bkk6060]

3 hours ago, mommysboy said:

The Thai economy is starting to resemble that of the UK, USA, and many others: weak growth, stagnant wages, rising prices, and altogether a failing economic model.  Yet more tough times ahead for at least the next decade.

Your lack of economic knowledge certainly has been exposed....