UK car industry warns next PM against 'seismic' no-deal Brexit

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Brexiteer delusion.

 

A few facts for you.

 

https://www.acea.be/statistics/article/motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners

It's depressing that anyone would believe this obviously biased rubbish..., but that's remainers for you.....

 

They are convinced that the miniscule uk auto industry will suffer far more than the German auto industry in the event of no deal.....

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

Clearly the UK will want minimal tariffs on cars, as low as possible. Because that suits both sides (it actually suits the EU more but let's not be spiteful, let's act in good faith for now).

 

If the EU want to put on big tariffs then the UK will match them. Given how many cars the Germans export to the UK, and the downward trend of the German economy right now, they'd be mad to do it.

 

The EU are in a tight spot. They are absolutely desperate to punish/humiliate the UK for leaving their corrupt club but that involves hurting their member states in the process. Will they cut off their nose to spite their face? Or offer us a sensible deal? We'll have to wait and see but either way I'll be happy to be out of their protectionist racket.

 

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

"The EU are in a tight spot. "

Sure mate, keep on believing that. It is this attitude that has brought the troubles on you in the first place.

Yet another poster that has no argument - so relies on trying to belittle the poster to whom he is replying .....

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, bristolboy said:

Remember what Brexiters were saying before the referendum?

 Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards

John Redwood

July 17 2016

 

 The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want

Michael Gove

July 17 2016

 

 The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history

Liam Fox

20 July 2017

 

For more exciting Brexit prediction from Brexiters, click here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/mar/28/11-brexit-promises-leavers-quietly-dropped

 

 

24 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Brexiters choose to believe that is true! They prefer to believe it's 'remainer" politicians who've thwarted this very simply task. Leave the EU, negotiate better trade terms with rest of world and EU - what will the do after lunch? 

Hang on a minute - genuinely leaving as a result of no deal is fairly simple, bearing in mind the eu will be as desperate as the uk to ensure things continue smoothly from both sides.

 

And yes, it is the remainer politicians that have thwarted this simple task......

[stevenl]

20 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

Yet another poster that has no argument - so relies on trying to belittle the poster to whom he is replying .....

Agree with you that my argument was not much of an argument. That's what happens when someone posts 'EU is in a tight spot', when it is very clear to all involved that the tight spot is in the UK, just look at the political mess this has caused.

[Loiner]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Brexiters choose to believe that is true! They prefer to believe it's 'remainer" politicians who've thwarted this very simply task. Leave the EU, negotiate better trade terms with rest of world and EU - what will the do after lunch? 

It obviously is true, we have not left yet because of the Remainer politicians and not accepting the WAG. 

Look at what you confirmed next:

Leave the EU, negotiate better trade terms with rest of world and EU...

 

After we have left, we can start to negotiate trade terms. EU rules.

[puipuitom]

20 hours ago, Joinaman said:

I like the many uses of the word "COULD"

"Germany would do its utmost to protect its trade with the UK, " so no extra tariffs on the UK from them, no restrictions on customs, 

"Vehicle sales have slumped due to slump in Diesel sales" The EU have anything to do with this too?

What tariffs are being imposed, ? anything proposed ? anything set in law ?

Or is it again "COULD". just like we :COULD" trade as normal if they chose to allow us, we "Could" leave and do waht we, and the public want, not what the EU thinks we want, and should have

 

Why you Brexiteers never read, know nearly nothing especailly when it comes to EU ?

All goods imported in the EU, NOT coming from a country with whom there is a special deal, will be considered as "third countries", see https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en

For cars: 10 %, starting 1 Nov in case of a no deal. 

 

[puipuitom]

7 hours ago, jesimps said:

What car industry? We don't have one anymore, they're all German and Japanese owned. Better warn the EU to come up with a good deal then because we import far more cars than we export, consequently, their carmakers will feel the pinch more than ours.

Then walk... saves imported petrol.

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

Hang on a minute - genuinely leaving as a result of no deal is fairly simple, bearing in mind the eu will be as desperate as the uk to ensure things continue smoothly from both sides.

.....

You would have to explain why the EU would be desperate or why the German auto industry would suffer significantly if the UK leaves without an agreement.

If people in the UK want to buy German, or any other EU product, they will buy it whatever the price. Yes sales may take a hit but it will be small potatoes compared to the ramifications facing the UK. Also the EU have a huge internal market they can turn their attention to without the regulatory hassle that will come into play.

It is EU entities that allow many UK enterprises to function through various agreements, agreements that will come to an end along with EU membership unless alternative agreements are created.

Everything can be quite simple if you ignore the problems, ask Theresa May she found a simple answer.

 

[JonnyF]

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

As economists noted, that was because the UK as stocking up on purchases in advance of the anticipated exit. Lately things haven't been so good:

Brexit hangover leaves UK nursing worst monthly contraction since 2016 - business live

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jun/10/markets--trade-war-progress-uk-gdp-growth-april-brexit-business-live

 

The Guardian? ????????????

 

The most biased rag available for anti-democratic, anti-Brexit, London based, EU loving Champagne Socialists. Their columnists blame Brexit when the Range Rover breaks down on the way to buy their organic kale from SW1. If it didn't break down, it was "despite" Brexit. 

 

Where are your 500,000 UK job losses that Project Fear kept ranting about, purely on a vote to leave in 2016? Oh that's right, it was a load of nonsense.

 

[puipuitom]

4 hours ago, Loiner said:

Being in the EU for 40 years has decimated the UK motor industry even more than the unions managed to do. 

If you want to choose a German car, or another EU imported car, it will cost you more. Yes, that's the same principle as Thailand, but it provides for all those workers employed around Rayong and Ayutthaya.

Not the membership of the EU, but the unwillingness, especially from the Unions, to accept automatisation to be more competative on the world markets, drove the UK car makers into semi-bankruptcy to be take over by German and Japanese car makers and bring in their technology to adapt.

What we see now ( Nissin back to Japan, as.. zero import duty into the EU thanks to a DEAL, and German Mini migration to Borne - NL) is less workers employed in the UK. I hope the voters in Sunderland realised that.

[sandyf]

13 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Why you Brexiteers never read, know nearly nothing especailly when it comes to EU ?

All goods imported in the EU, NOT coming from a country with whom there is a special deal, will be considered as "third countries", see https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en

For cars: 10 %, starting 1 Nov in case of a no deal. 

 

Exactly, they are so hung up on German cars, they cannot see the wood for the trees.

Once the UK becomes a third country, the Japanese will be looking for an escape route.

[JonnyF]

6 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Exactly, they are so hung up on German cars, they cannot see the wood for the trees.

Once the UK becomes a third country, the Japanese will be looking for an escape route.

Course they will. Just like South Korea.

 

Reuters, June 10.

 

[puipuitom]

4 hours ago, JonnyF said:

a) Clearly the UK will want minimal tariffs on cars, as low as possible. Because that suits both sides (it actually suits the EU more but let's not be spiteful, let's act in good faith for now).

b) If the EU want to put on big tariffs then the UK will match them. Given how many cars the Germans export to the UK, and the downward trend of the German economy right now, they'd be mad to do it.

c) The EU are in a tight spot. They are absolutely desperate to punish/humiliate the UK for leaving their corrupt club but that involves hurting their member states in the process. 

d) Or offer us a sensible deal? 

a) for that, you need a DEAL.

b) Remidn: a high import duty might harm the German cvar makers, but.. they do nto have so many problems to sell tehri cars to new markets. The costrs will be at the Brisih car buyers, who will be stuck to UK made.. with spare parts and components from ??

c) when the EU is such a corrupt club, why any negociations: just LEAVE,.. with pleasure.. Why not the day after the referendum ? Close the tunnel and finish the ferries.

d) For that, EU and UK were negociating for over 3 years, without EVER from the UK the words: "with THAT we can livwe with". Only at the end: NO.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

It's depressing that anyone would believe this obviously biased rubbish..., but that's remainers for you.....

 

They are convinced that the miniscule uk auto industry will suffer far more than the German auto industry in the event of no deal.....

The UK Auto industry is far from miniscule:

 

 

'With some 186,000 people employed directly in manufacturing and in excess of 856,000 across the wider automotive industry, it accounts for 12.0% of total UK export of goods and invests £3.65 billion each year in automotive R&D.'

 

https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/uk-automotive/

 

 

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Brexiteer delusion.

A few facts for you.

https://www.acea.be/statistics/article/motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners

Brexiteers ONLY read what is in accordance with their convincion. 

[CapraIbex]

3 hours ago, natway09 said:

I will say it again if the UK leave without a deal it will take at least 10 years to climb out of the hole.

Being the 51st state of USA is a natural progression for the UK; they probably won't miss the EU club, will they?

[puipuitom]

2 hours ago, JonnyF said:

or setting up domestic production of EU replacments What troubles? Our economy is doing fine, unemployment at it's lowest since 1974. The only thing slowing us down is the uncertainty which will be resolved on October 31.

 

From ft.com in April 2019.

 

How much is caused by stockpiling or setting up production for treplacements for a no-deal Brexit ?

But most important: Brexit did not start yet, I hope 1 Nov 

Edited June 26, 2019 by puipuitom

[GeorgeCross]

deal and no-deal are both dead, they've found another way to exit.

 

welcome GATT24 - the WTO free trade agreement that Boris is pushing that can be wrote on the back of an envelope.

 

enjoy.

 

written by Ian Duncan Smith:

 

https://brexitcentral.com/the-facts-about-gatt-article-24-and-how-it-can-deliver-a-clean-managed-brexit-by-31st-october/

 

oh and as for the car industry if no deal happens 1M Germans will lose their jobs in the german car industry. Britain is their largest automotive trading partner

[puipuitom]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

bearing in mind the eu will be as desperate as the uk to ensure things continue smoothly from both sides.

Because the EU ( and her member states') politicians feel responsable for their people.

[puipuitom]

2 hours ago, stevenl said:

That's what happens when someone posts 'EU is in a tight spot', when it is very clear to all involved that the tight spot is in the UK, just look at the political mess this has caused.

Remind the British weather news 1957 : "There is a dense fogg in the Channel; the continent is isolated". 

[bristolboy]

4 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

deal and no-deal are both dead, they've found another way to exit.

 

welcome GATT24 - the WTO free trade agreement that Boris is pushing that can be wrote on the back of an envelope.

 

enjoy.

 

written by Ian Duncan Smith:

 

https://brexitcentral.com/the-facts-about-gatt-article-24-and-how-it-can-deliver-a-clean-managed-brexit-by-31st-october/

 

oh and as for the car industry if no deal happens 1M Germans will lose their jobs in the german car industry. Britain is their largest automotive trading partner

Same old nonsense. It doesn't address the central question: why would the EU want to make leaving it as painless as possible? That would just give an incentive for other members to do the same. The EU has never denied that it will be economically painful to lose the UK. It's the Brexiters who are unrealistic on the score of economic pain.

[sandyf]

12 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Course they will. Just like South Korea.

 

Reuters, June 10.

 

You obviously missed the point, that the Japanese motor industry will be looking to escape the UK.

Feel free to believe that the South Koreans will provide as many jobs as the Japanese leave behind.

[candide]

15 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

oh and as for the car industry if no deal happens 1M Germans will lose their jobs in the german car industry. Britain is their largest automotive trading partner

You're not at ease with numbers, are you?

100,000 jobs at risk, 15,000 in the car industry.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6688409/100-000-jobs-risk-Germany-UK-leaves-EU-no-deal-Brexit-study-warns.html

[Loiner]

29 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Exactly, they are so hung up on German cars, they cannot see the wood for the trees.

Once the UK becomes a third country, the Japanese will be looking for an escape route.

We can see a trade imbalance of 16.5 Billion Euros on German cars alone. It has got to stop and get UK workers back into UK factories.

[Berkshire]

19 minutes ago, CapraIbex said:

Being the 51st state of USA is a natural progression for the UK; they probably won't miss the EU club, will they?

5555...maybe the UK can be like Puerto Rico.  Just avoid hurricanes.  Our President may get annoyed with another island of ours requiring disaster relief. 

[GeorgeCross]

1 minute ago, candide said:

You're not at ease with numbers, are you?

100,000 jobs at risk, 15,000 in the car industry.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6688409/100-000-jobs-risk-Germany-UK-leaves-EU-no-deal-Brexit-study-warns.html

sorry i got my 'numbers' from ian duncan smith and a 10 year serving MEP not the daily mail 

 

Quote

Well, the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world and the EU’s largest single market – bigger than the USA, China and India. The EU has a £96 billion goods deficit with us (we have a £13bn services surplus). Over a million German jobs alone rely on British consumers buying German goods like BMWs. Without a basic GATT 24 deal, the EU would have £13bn tariffs slapped on its goods – 10% on VWs; 12% on wine, 40% on cheese. They would suffer far more than the UK simply because they sell more to us than we do to them

 

[GeorgeCross]

15 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Same old nonsense. It doesn't address the central question: why would the EU want to make leaving it as painless as possible? That would just give an incentive for other members to do the same. The EU has never denied that it will be economically painful to lose the UK. It's the Brexiters who are unrealistic on the score of economic pain.

 

why?

 

Quote

Well, the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world and the EU’s largest single market – bigger than the USA, China and India. The EU has a £96 billion goods deficit with us (we have a £13bn services surplus). Over a million German jobs alone rely on British consumers buying German goods like BMWs. Without a basic GATT 24 deal, the EU would have £13bn tariffs slapped on its goods – 10% on VWs; 12% on wine, 40% on cheese. They would suffer far more than the UK simply because they sell more to us than we do to them

 

clear enough?

 

 

[sandyf]

22 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

oh and as for the car industry if no deal happens 1M Germans will lose their jobs in the german car industry. Britain is their largest automotive trading partner

Typical brexit mentality.

I suppose that you think with a 200% import tax there isn't any German cars in Thailand.

[bristolboy]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

Hang on a minute - genuinely leaving as a result of no deal is fairly simple, bearing in mind the eu will be as desperate as the uk to ensure things continue smoothly from both sides.

 

And yes, it is the remainer politicians that have thwarted this simple task......

 

33 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

The Guardian? ????????????

 

The most biased rag available for anti-democratic, anti-Brexit, London based, EU loving Champagne Socialists. Their columnists blame Brexit when the Range Rover breaks down on the way to buy their organic kale from SW1. If it didn't break down, it was "despite" Brexit. 

 

Where are your 500,000 UK job losses that Project Fear kept ranting about, purely on a vote to leave in 2016? Oh that's right, it was a load of nonsense.

 

The Guardian was citing government figures from the Office for National Statistics. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/april2019#gdp-contracted-by-04-in-april-2019

Figures you would try to avoid that fact by bring up all sort of irrelevancies.

 

 

[puipuitom]

22 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

The Guardian? ????????????

 

The most biased rag available for anti-democratic, anti-Brexit, London based, EU loving Champagne Socialists. Their columnists blame Brexit when the Range Rover breaks down on the way to buy their organic kale from SW1. If it didn't break down, it was "despite" Brexit. 

 

Where are your 500,000 UK job losses that Project Fear kept ranting about, purely on a vote to leave in 2016? Oh that's right, it was a load of nonsense.

 

Did you already compare this with the direct competitors of the UK, like Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands ?

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics_at_regional_level or  https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9628005/3-01032019-BP-EN.pdf/fdee8c71-7b1a-411a-86fa-da4af63710e1

Not a real diference. Germany 3.2, UK 4.0 for Jan 2019

Remind.. Brexit did not happen yet.