Falling baht a sign of things to come

By The Nation

 

 

The baht has weakened against the US dollar, opening at Bt30.70 on Tuesday after closing at 30.67 the day before.

 

Jittipol Puksamatanan, financial strategist at Krungthai Bank, believes the markets are preparing for a strengthening of the dollar, while the Bank of Thailand has also introduced a policy of lowering overall liquidity by Bt20 billion, forcing short-term interest rates to fall.

 

“Last night the market was highly active due to the finalization of the US-China trade war and markets around the world rose – the US S&P500 went up by 0.77 per cent, setting a new record, while in Europe the STOXX50 index rose by 0.69 per cent, and the FTSE100 surged by 0.97 per cent, aided by the weakening of the Euro and British pound,” he said.

 

Markets exposed to risks and ongoing European political problems have helped the dollar to rebound by 0.45 per cent against the major currencies, while alternative assets, such as gold, fell by 0.50 per cent to USD1,388 per ounce.

 

Meanwhile, the slowing Japanese production sector caused by the trade war had lowered Japan’s production sector confidence index (Tankan) from 12 points to 7 points. Similarly in China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI has dropped from 50.2 points to 49.4 points, and in the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has fallen from 52.1 points to 51.7 points.

 

“This points out that the global production sector is slowing down due to the trade war,” Jittipol said.

 

Meanwhile, Thailand's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June showed inflation dropping from 1.15 per cent in May to 0.87 per cent. Factors include lower energy prices and transport costs compared with the same period last year.

 

The financial markets have been strengthening amid continuing strength in the baht against other Asian currencies, causing the Bank of Thailand to lower liquidity by Bt20 billion in order to force rates to fall.

 

“We believe this [BoT policy] will not affect the markets,” he said. 

 

“However, the financial markets during this quarter are still interesting as investors are in a highly careful mode, and the [US} Fed might decrease true interest in September while the economic figures are declining globally. 

 

“Thus the dollar has a chance to rebound once the risk market closes.”

 

The Baht was expected to remain in a Bt30.65-30.75 range against the dollar on Tuesday.

 

Source: http://www.nationthailand.com/business/30372137

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand  2019-07-02

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but but doom gloom...

Take some paint, throw it on a wall, and that is the curve the strength of the baht will follow. Well, at least it would be as accurate and anyone else's prediction. 

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

The baht has weakened against the US dollar, opening at Bt30.70 on Tuesday after closing at 30.67 the day before.

Whole 3 cents? WOW

 

Boys, we lich and handsum again. 

So a 3 satang fall, It could be up 10 tomorrow, this is NOT news.

the headline giving so many hope, and it's a none story.

regards worgeordie

4 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The financial markets have been strengthening amid continuing strength in the baht against other Asian currencies, causing the Bank of Thailand to lower liquidity by Bt20 billion in order to force rates to fall. 

Don't forget what they said a few weeks ago - Thailand NEVER manipulates the currency rate ????

What goes up must come down !

 

Before it goes up again.

 

Are we really going to get articles by the nation every time it moves a few statang?

That's like saying there is an extra grain of sand on the beach.

 

Nobody will notice the difference.

5 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Markets exposed to risks and ongoing European political problems have helped the dollar to rebound by 0.45 per cent against the major currencies

Whereas the USD has only "rebounded" against the THB by 0.1% by my reckoning.

 

Fake news, I think.

10 hours ago, ukrules said:

Don't forget what they said a few weeks ago - Thailand NEVER manipulates the currency rate ????

People don't believe it but pickup the Bangkok Post the last week and the writing was right there in articles.????

It will be a while before the gurus in Thailand realise that the strong baht will have a very negative effect on the Thai economy. They will blame external factors beyond their control.The latest inflation figures look spongey the impact of high baht /oil import prices has offset the gradual increase eating into the everyday buying power of the people.Time will tell!

Not what we see now—baht up again this a.m.  So can BoT please tell us WHO is this mysterious foreign entity buying Thai bonds regularly for the past two years?  BTW, we think we know...

Who writes these ridiculous and meaningless headlines?

The baht will weaken in the short term, but in the long term its will become much, much stronger. We will see 1 dollar / 25 baht within a couple of years.

Edited July 3, 20197 yr by RandolphGB

32 minutes ago, Anagami said:

Who writes these ridiculous and meaningless headlines?

We live in the era of clicks, journalism is not immune, the fact that you and I clicked is an example of how it works.

btw, falling baht my foot, it's 34.48 to Eur.

Edited July 3, 20197 yr by arithai12

Now after all the rich have invested their money abroad, the Thai Baht may fall again.

3 satang you must bee "kidding" !!!!!????

I would hardly call this movement even worthy of reporting.

Pound going to 29.

US to mid/ low 20's.

 

At that point your money is worth 50 percent less then just a few years ago.

and now, Wed 11.58 it's a 30.575 what are the basis for these (BoT) people estimates

I cross my fingers ????and pray to all Egypt's Gods ???? – and some extra, just to be safe – that this will be a reliable trend for a weaker baht...????

19 hours ago, worgeordie said:

So a 3 satang fall, It could be up 10 tomorrow, this is NOT news.

the headline giving so many hope, and it's a none story.

regards worgeordie

So many foreigners complaining about everything, the people complaining about the baht are the same people who are threatening to up-sticks, if i was going back to the UK i would prefer 30baht to the £ than 38, make you mind up chaps, hang around what goes around comes around.

20 hours ago, HeyHeyHey said:

Whole 3 cents? WOW

 

Boys, we lich and handsum again. 

It appears to be 3 satang.

17 hours ago, ukrules said:

Don't forget what they said a few weeks ago - Thailand NEVER manipulates the currency rate ????

If that's your criteria for currency manipulation, then the US administration is doing all it can to make the dollar cheaper and all the "western" counties encouraging zero or negative rates are mega manipulator so despite their denials. 

7 hours ago, Paul Henry said:

It will be a while before the gurus in Thailand realise that the strong baht will have a very negative effect on the Thai economy. They will blame external factors beyond their control.The latest inflation figures look spongey the impact of high baht /oil import prices has offset the gradual increase eating into the everyday buying power of the people.Time will tell!

They're well aware of the effects of exchange rate strengths or weaknesses. While using the term "guru" facetiously for   , you obviously, hilariously think you have a better grasp of the simplest of finance and economic realities. Your self regard is breathtaking .

Falling ???? have you seen the BKK FX page today, bank notes buying rate ? Dollar 30.14 Pound 37.69  Euro 33.90. It's just getting worse.

2 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

Falling ???? have you seen the BKK FX page today, bank notes buying rate ? Dollar 30.14 Pound 37.69  Euro 33.90. It's just getting worse.

Every major currency just keeps dropping ....

AUD 21.38  XE this morning ... next step 20.90 .....  and the US will be 29.00 soon ... with the GBP 36.90 

 

When will they stop dropping.

18 minutes ago, steven100 said:

Every major currency just keeps dropping ....

AUD 21.38  XE this morning ... next step 20.90 .....  and the US will be 29.00 soon ... with the GBP 36.90 

 

When will they stop dropping.

It will have to happen soon or the Baht will be the new reserve currency.

3 hours ago, Mavideol said:

and now, Wed 11.58 it's a 30.575 what are the basis for these (BoT) people estimates

weed

7 hours ago, Anagami said:

Who writes these ridiculous and meaningless headlines?

 

Would you (or, I) have clicked on an article that was headlined “Baht mainly unchanged?” We are  here, and the headline writer earned his pay for the day. Clickbait will never stop as long as we keep taking the bait.