Sterling on back foot due to growing concern about no-deal Brexit

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Good to see you back Tebee and you're all right. And all this for much less than nothing. Most of the diehards think they have nothing to lose but as the genius Cummings said about David Davies "they are thick as mince" - past caring what they think now - happy to lob thought grenades over the barricades - they have won nothing unlike some of the rich vultures circling round the carcase of the UK smelling huge profits in the volatility. 

 

 

 

Betting against British firms:

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-donor-crispin-odey-eyes-brexit-jackpot-with-300m-bet-against-british-firms-0lwjbnqsn

[tomacht8]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

At a price.

 

The US President has already stated that the UK’s NHS must be included in any trade deal and assured the UK there will be no trade deal if the UK continues it’s moves to tax US online businesses.

 

Wait until you see what they have in store for Britain’s agricultural sectors.

If the countries of the EU stand together outwardly, they are strong and can enforce their economic interests vis-à-vis the USA or China.

 

Now the UK sheep is out of the herd and the hyenas will have their fun.

 

Fair trade deals? As if only one country in this world had something to give away.

 

It's all about money and power. The stronger market partner dictates the rules.

 

And Trump thinks only of short-term propaganda success. Where he believes he can get money, he pisses on all contracts. The UK will still be longing for the 40+ years in the cuddly EU, when merciless market forces will hit the isolated UK.

[SheungWan]

On 7/26/2019 at 5:35 PM, sunnyboy2018 said:

A poor attempt at semantics. Thus a vote to remain by your logic would just have been and option to remain and could have meant remain. The leave vote was about NOT having to make deals or deal with EU except on our terms. The deal/ no deal issue was a remainer construct to keep us in the EU under false pretences.

The vote did not specify deals or no deals. Only the Hard Brexiteers have made up the idea that only no-Deal was on the table from the off.

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, nauseus said:

I don't mind admitting that I wish I could use Brexit to enrich myself. But for now, my few paltry pounds are just as crap as anyone else's.

Well that is a shame. But not everybody wants to be dragged down into the mire with the Hard Brexiteers.

[nauseus]

18 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Well that is a shame. But not everybody wants to be dragged down into the mire with the Hard Brexiteers.

After all that has happened over the last 3 years, that word, mire, seems to have become so perfectly descriptive of the EU. Glad you mentioned it.

[mommysboy]

47 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I thought I was first in with the "nobody knows" admission but, whatever. I can't remember any leavers asking this question. I acknowledge that the prospect of no deal is negative for the Pound, I always have. But what is driving it down is a combination of both real fear of economic calamity, along with a big slice of opportunistic (potentially profitable) speculation, as we saw 3 years ago.

 

I also still maintain that once this Brexit Circus tent is finally packed up, then the Pound will recover to pre referendum strength, at least. 

 

All MOHO of course.

'also still maintain that once this Brexit Circus tent is finally packed up'

 

In 10-20 years!  The pound will have parity with the baht.

 

The frustrating thing is the drop in sterling has already easily compensated for economic disruption.  I can only think economists foresee the country actually sinking.

[beautifulthailand99]

Just had major power outages all over England - we're doomed I say. Brexit is a symptom not a cause. 35 years at University I posited that politics of the west was about the orderly management of decline and decline was inevitable. I still stand by that but would change the orderly to disorderly. With climate change and the rise of nationalism and populism I hear the distant drums of war which is a baked in inevitably of the human condition thus far sadly in our evolution. 

 

 

 

 

[tebee]

£ at parity with the $ is now being talk about as a serious possibility !

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/pound-falling-to-parity-is-an-idea-thats-starting-to-take-hold/ar-AAFzrso?ocid=st

 

Suddenly, the idea of pound parity seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may crash out of the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock Inc., is short the pound and sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 on such an outcome. 

[nauseus]

33 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

'also still maintain that once this Brexit Circus tent is finally packed up'

 

In 10-20 years!  The pound will have parity with the baht.

 

The frustrating thing is the drop in sterling has already easily compensated for economic disruption.  I can only think economists foresee the country actually sinking.

My opinion. Then yours.

[nauseus]

21 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Just had major power outages all over England - we're doomed I say. Brexit is a symptom not a cause. 35 years at University I posited that politics of the west was about the orderly management of decline and decline was inevitable. I still stand by that but would change the orderly to disorderly. With climate change and the rise of nationalism and populism I hear the distant drums of war which is a baked in inevitably of the human condition thus far sadly in our evolution. 

 

 

 

 

No wonder we're doomed then.

[503726]

The fall in the pound ought to be an opportunity for ex pats holding other currencies.

 

We don't know how much GBP will continue to depreciate. We can probably expect market to have some panicky jitters in the run up to Brexit day (if it happens), then some sort of recovery because uncertainties will eventually be less after the day and then GBP to find its new level based on data on economic performance over many quarters.

 

I guess the real profits will be made moving money into GBP between now & Brexit and holding for the new economic data to show the medium term effect but for individuals perhaps we should think of using any spare Baht to buy GBP if it goes to under x Baht (lets say 30 Baht) on market panic & sell by Xmas.

[SheungWan]

The fall in the pound ought to be an opportunity for ex pats holding other currencies.
 
We don't know how much GBP will continue to depreciate. We can probably expect market to have some panicky jitters in the run up to Brexit day (if it happens), then some sort of recovery because uncertainties will eventually be less after the day and then GBP to find its new level based on data on economic performance over many quarters.
 
I guess the real profits will be made moving money into GBP between now & Brexit and holding for the new economic data to show the medium term effect but for individuals perhaps we should think of using any spare Baht to buy GBP if it goes to under x Baht (lets say 30 Baht) on market panic & sell by Xmas.

Post-Brexit cannot assume a bounce if economic conditions decline and those banking on a Sterling bounce might be a little more wary though a dead cat bounce might appear little more than a mirage.

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[SheungWan]

After all that has happened over the last 3 years, that word, mire, seems to have become so perfectly descriptive of the EU. Glad you mentioned it.

Is that why GBPEUR has dropped below 1.08 ?

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[nauseus]

3 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Is that why GBPEUR has dropped below 1.08 ?

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

All part of the mire effect.

[503726]

5 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Post-Brexit cannot assume a bounce if economic conditions decline and those banking on a Sterling bounce might be a little more wary though a dead cat bounce might appear little more than a mirage.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

You have a point depending on magnitude of movements. The underlying UK econometrics can't be so damaged as to give no lift at any point.

 

I don't know how much elastic the decline from 50 to 36 might give the cat. Do you know where there are models to decide?

 

This such is an emotive & worrying subject for this forum, we would all benefit from being better informed about how the post Brexit exchange level will be determined and factors to look out for.

[SheungWan]

There are no guarantees for the future which are hidden away to be discovered. The markets assign risk to event horizons and it is up to the individual to take a position if they have assets to do so. Those who sat on Sterling since the referendum in anticipation of a bounce have been stuffed. Looking forwards 6 months, what would I do now? Make sure I was hedged. Purely for piece of mind, being wholly in Sterling is not a stable place to be. And looking forwards not so hot either.

You have a point depending on magnitude of movements. The underlying UK econometrics can't be so damaged as to give no lift at any point.
 
I don't know how much elastic the decline from 50 to 36 might give the cat. Do you know where there are models to decide?
 
This such is an emotive & worrying subject for this forum, we would all benefit from being better informed about how the post Brexit exchange level will be determined and factors to look out for.

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[SheungWan]

Boris is whimsical, but I think he has a functional brain.
His statements plague the pound and overall the entire UK economy.
He is certainly aware of it.
So what purpose?
I think he got into the Brexit camp by opportunism. Now that he has reached his goal, I think he is preparing the kind of 180º turn he has the secret of.
In late October, he will announce that he can not engage the country in such a risky way without a new acceptance of the people.
 
Of course, this would have a fantastic effect on currency prices. That is why I would wait a bit before playing against sterling.

Playing FX on the anticipated state of Boris's mind? Go for it.

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[kingdong]

On 7/30/2019 at 7:41 AM, bristolboy said:

Devaluation isn't great for workers living in the UK, either. A big reason why the average worker has actually suffered a decline in real wages despite the strong employment numbers.

"strong employment numbers"? what in the "gig" economy?still we,ve got our kak handed benefits scheme,family allowance paid abroad,rent and tax credits,etc etc,probably why we,ve got 2.5 million eu migrants resident in the uk.

[SheungWan]

"strong employment numbers"? what in the "gig" economy?still we,ve got our kak handed benefits scheme,family allowance paid abroad,rent and tax credits,etc etc,probably why we,ve got 2.5 million eu migrants resident in the uk.

The one and only issue that really motivates the Brexiteers.

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[Loiner]

The one and only issue that really motivates the Brexiteers.

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Which one? There are seven or eight there to choose from.

[SheungWan]

FX markets now renaming Sterling as the North Atlantic Peso. Brexiteer triumph.

[Chomper Higgot]

On 7/30/2019 at 5:02 PM, evadgib said:

Nothing will stop the gloat-dance up and down the country on 01 November.

I'm already practicing...

Come on then Evadgib, shake a leg, let’s see the fruits of all your practice.

 

 

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

Well if Johnson gets a majority I shall be crying all the way to the bank as I have a big sterling transfer coming up in December. That said as a remainer it's not about the money I would gladly take a hit to see the Tories out. I doubt it will last long though when reality bites in the longer run. But the Brexiteers on these pages who have repeatedly stated that a low pound is great for the economy so a higher pound would surely be a disaster?

 

A clutch of global banks and investment houses is preparing for a British economic boomlet and a potentially explosive rise in sterling, betting that elections will finally break the eternal deadlock over Brexit.The pound has risen 6pc from bargain-basement lows to a six-month high near $1.30 since Boris Johnson clinched a deal with the EU, but currency experts think it remains massively undervalued and could vault much higher with the right catalysts.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/31/global-heavyweights-eye-massively-undervalued-pound-fog-clears/

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Come on then Evadgib, shake a leg, let’s see the fruits of all your practice.

 

 

 

 

Our secret cameraman caught you two practising together.