Baht speculation on downtrend, says central bank governor

[miamiman123]

Out of control 

29.6 yesterday on exchange 

[Time Traveller]

Speculation? What speculation? Why would anyone speculate in a currency with virtually no volitility and is still basically the same level as it was 3 months ago (approx. 30.60) ? 

Short term infows are not necessarily "currency speculation". Some are property buyers, some are stock investors, some are foreign direct investment, some is repatriation of profits by thai companies.

 

It's clear that BoT have no clue and just make stuff up like they know what's going on. They don't.

 

Edited October 1, 2019 by Time Traveller

[canuckamuck]

2 minutes ago, Brickbat said:

Strong Baht means the very rich buy overseas assets and an ensuing economic crash which will then render asset price reductions across the board allowing the very rich to mop up.

 

The very rich here don’t even consider expats or our concerns as we are nothing to them.

So just live and enjoy Thailand and retirement or we <deleted> off. 

Let me know when that crash is coming. I need something to look forward to.

[moe666]

As long as the baht interest rate offers a better return on a speculators money they will keep putting money in here. If someone is investing 200,000,000 dollars for even a quater percent more than else where they will do it. Actually the fall off in tourism should have a bit of affect but not much.

[moe666]

8 minutes ago, miamiman123 said:

Out of control 

29.6 yesterday on exchange 

Exchange rate is not the true exchange rate. Go on line and check the tt rate closer to actual.

[Marley01]

Thailand’s field of dreams

if you drop it, they will come.

 

[nickstav]

9 hours ago, kevin612 said:

I want back up to 33.

I want back up to 42, which was what it was when I started coming here.

[ericthai]

1 hour ago, madmen said:

It took years to get where it is now and will take many years to recover. expats should plan for 5 years but I think there will be new lows to hit that havnt been seen before

Unless something drastic happens no currency moves fast, so I agree it will take time. As for hitting new lows you're thinking below 23-24 to the USD? Myself, I dont ever see that happening. I believe 29/30 is the threshold.  Go below that these days and exports can not compete so I believe the BOT will make adjustments if it starts going below 30.

[RichardColeman]

Now if they could sort the Baht out, and get Brexit done life may return to normality.

[Isaan sailor]

Remember central bankers, actions speak louder than words.  USD remains almost 200 Satang below its 10-year average vs. Thai Baht.  So how ‘bout you lay off hot money inflows for a few weeks?  And for good measure, lower interest rates. And how ‘bout a little less love for your ChiCom friends? Your tourism and export markets could use a break...as well as some expats.

[Eric Loh]

With the FED likely for 2 more rate cuts this year, Baht will likely appreciate against USD. Thailand interest rate will look very attractive for safe haven investments with the EU and Japan in negative rates territory. Hard for BOT to prevent the inevitable. Best they can do is to smooth out wild gyrations so that exporters can manage with better hedging. Expect the Baht to breach the 30 Baht level by year end. Brace yourself. 

[thaistocks]

Lots of BOT talk, the numbers show its the same, same.  The single biggest change they could do is get rid of these silly Bank restrictions imposed on foreigners want to buy foreign currency vs. Baht, to send abroad. Its easy to send money in, but difficult to send it out. This is one reason the Baht remains strong.   But realize, and few expats here do, if you have a Thai brokerage account you can so very easily send money abroad in your own name, instantly.

[kevinmartyn]

A fact is that it's government backed with the Chinese Government being the main culprits! The extreamely hige baht has affected ALL business operating from Thailand (Rice, fish, Chicken famers, hotels and tourest, etc etc)

[Dumbastheycome]

I believe that in not too long the BOT will be  forced to  drop the money market rate again even just to ease/reduce the expansion of the Baht.

But it is  not true to blame the BOT for  what has happened when put in perspective of  global distortions created by the  "Trade War" in particular. Despite political issues Thailand maintains a very substantial  economic position which although being impacted by export issues at this time has also enabled internal investment in imported industrial infrastructure. An eventual reduction in the value of the Baht will see an outflow of speculative currency input but not the infrastructure. Thailand's  biggest issue is in the current excess and rising public debt compounded by increasing  unemployment.

If I were to bet on it I would be looking to have $US by the end of 12  months from now. Not because the US itself  will be doing any better  but because the impact of Brexit in Europe, the Hong Kong  problem, the Middle East problem will leave the $US keep it's  head above water simply because it is imposed as the bench mark  currency. 

 

 

[cheshiremusicman]

4 minutes ago, thaistocks said:

Lots of BOT talk, the numbers show its the same, same.  The single biggest change they could do is get rid of these silly Bank restrictions imposed on foreigners want to buy foreign currency vs. Baht, to send abroad. Its easy to send money in, but difficult to send it out. This is one reason the Baht remains strong.   But realize, and few expats here do, if you have a Thai brokerage account you can so very easily send money abroad in your own name, instantly.

So, how does one acquire a 'Thai Brokerage Account' dare one ask? 

[Nowisee]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

after the central bank imposed measures to discourage foreign investors form parking their short-term funds in Thailand

Does this mean immigration no longer wants 800k in Thai bank?  555

 

2 hours ago, Colabamumbai said:

They have bitten the hand that feeds them. 22 Baht for a Canadian Dollar, I just spend less as my silent protest.

All my high cost purchases are on permanent hold.  I'll be making these when I repatriate to cleaner, safer and friendly shores. 

 

6 hours ago, tjo o tjim said:

I am thinking it might be the too-little, too-late.  There is long-term damage caused by a number of factors and no real signs of wanting to change it.  Manufacturing is changing regionally, partly due to current US policy, but also with the dynamics shifting.  Thailand seems to be too slow on a few of their critical exports to address it properly, from cars to durian.  Tourism is fickle, and many are put off by a variety of factors; eastern Europe and Latin America are growing, and more diverse distribution of tourists elsewhere will have an impact on Thailand long term.  Raw costs is one part of it, but so is the value proposition for the high-end travellers.

I agree.  A lot of what you and others say is playing into the macroeconomics here and some of the not mentioned details play a role in what is coming.  Not worth explaining it in this forum, but the dynamics that are not shifting here are going to be crucial in Thailand's fundamental economic divergence.  China is a double edge sword in Thailand's quiver of economic growth...recovery, er,um demise.  One I would not want to be beholden to.  Not my country, not my problem.  

[kevinmartyn]

The high baht is a massive issue for Thais as cost in 7/11 have gone up by 5%+ and rest assured because it's an American company they will not reduce.

 

Fact is that it's government backed with the Chinese Government being the main culprits! Pushing the extreamely high baht! This has affected ALL business operating from Thailand (Rice, fish, Chicken famers, hotels and tourest, etc etc)

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, SteveK said:

Well if it moves in the right direction by only a few satang a day for a few months, then we'll be in a much happier place. So will Thailand's tourism and exports.

I love your optimism...

I'm sure exporters & the people lower down the chain from the larger cooperations would love to see something happen faster before they're laid off.

As for tourists many have already booked elsewhere.... and looking at the return of air-pollution will keep doing so as no need to rush back to get a lung-full of smog.

[Mac98]

10 hours ago, kevin612 said:

I want back up to 33.

42

[Isaan sailor]

I theorise the ChiComs behind most of the Baht appreciation.  And Chinese have a treasure chest of US Treasuries.  And whenever you have hot money flying around—you have ample opportunity for funny things to happen.  Like a Baht that remains stubbornly high...

[Angry Dragon]

14 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

Keep it going boys, long way to go yet.

Stop gap measures like these by central banks might cause a pause in the Baht's climb.  Fundamentals support a stronger baht against the major foreign currencies (USD, GBP in particular).  Go Baht!

[Angry Dragon]

13 hours ago, SteveK said:

Well if it moves in the right direction by only a few satang a day for a few months, then we'll be in a much happier place. So will Thailand's tourism and exports.

we will?  what about those who earn salary in THB, or those Thais who travel abroad or purchase imports?

[SuwadeeS]

So, this might means the superrich of Thailand have exchanged enough Thai Baht into US$ for a good rate. So later can make a lot of profit the change back into Baht.

[Angry Dragon]

11 hours ago, BuckBee said:

Nobody in the country seeing benefit of price reductions on imports so who the ones gaining, few top elites ...

Are you kidding me?  Price of aussie beef and wine are down significantly from the past year.  travel abroad for Thais has become more reasonable as well (not just for the top elites).

[Angry Dragon]

48 minutes ago, kevinmartyn said:

The high baht is a massive issue for Thais as cost in 7/11 have gone up by 5%+ and rest assured because it's an American company they will not reduce.

 

Fact is that it's government backed with the Chinese Government being the main culprits! Pushing the extreamely high baht! This has affected ALL business operating from Thailand (Rice, fish, Chicken famers, hotels and tourest, etc etc)

can you walk me though how a stronger baht is causing prices at 7/11 to go up by 5%?  you must be shopping at the wrong 7/11

[Teee]

Given all that is happening with the High Baht.

How many expats are suffering with the currencies of each country?

Have you stopped eating out often as you did before?

How many expats really thinking of leaving or have left in the last year?

 

[bizboi]

2 hours ago, Wake Up said:

But you are not the Central Banker of Thailand so your speculation is worth a lot less. ????

…and HIS isn’t worth very much!!

[ourdon]

1 hour ago, kevinmartyn said:

The high baht is a massive issue for Thais as cost in 7/11 have gone up by 5%+ and rest assured because it's an American company they will not reduce.

 

Fact is that it's government backed with the Chinese Government being the main culprits! Pushing the extreamely high baht! This has affected ALL business operating from Thailand (Rice, fish, Chicken famers, hotels and tourest, etc etc)

Just a little FYI

the first 7/11 and the one that manages all 7/11s' is in the city of Dallas, Texas.  The company that owns it, Seven Eleven Japan Co. Ltd. is in Tokyo.  Seven Eleven Japan Co. Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of Seven & I Holdings formed by Ito - Yokado in 2005.

It's as American as ... wasabi ????

[TheFishman1]

Unbelievable TIT

[madmen]

1 hour ago, Angry Dragon said:

Price of aussie beef and wine are down significantly

Wine jumped through the roof last year. it would need to drop 30% to get back to old prices. please provide a link or it didn't happen