snoop1130 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 UK economy headed for recession after services shrink unexpectedly - PMI By David Milliken FILE PHOTO: The Canary Wharf financial district stands in London, Britain August 11, 2019. REUTERS/Simon Dawson/File Photo LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s economy appears to have tipped into recession as firms brace for the risk of a disruptive Brexit in just a few weeks’ time, according to a survey which showed the dominant services sector took an unexpectedly sharp downturn last month. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has promised to take Britain out of the European Union by Oct. 31 come what may, despite parliament passing a law ordering him to secure a new transition deal to soften the economic blow. Against this backdrop, September’s IHS Markit/CIPS services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell by more than any economist predicted in a Reuters poll, tumbling to a six-month low of 49.5, below the 50 level that divides growth from contraction. Combined with even weaker manufacturing and construction surveys earlier in the week, September’s all-sector PMI sank to 48.8 from 49.7, its lowest since the month after the referendum decision to leave the EU in June 2016, and before that 2009. IHS Markit said the figures suggested Britain’s economy shrank by 0.1% in the three months to September. “Coming on the heels of a decline in the second quarter, (this) would mean the UK is facing a heightened risk of recession,” IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson said. Britain’s economy shrank by 0.2% in the three months to June - the first decline since 2012 - and a second quarterly contraction would meet the recession definition used in Europe. On Wednesday, Johnson sent new Brexit proposals to the EU and said that unless the bloc compromised, Britain would leave without a deal at the end of this month. Leaving the EU without a deal risks causing major disruption to trade, at least in the short term, due to the immediate imposition of new tariffs and regulatory checks at ports. Britain’s economy is also slowing due to the trade conflict between the United States and China. “INSIDIOUS WEAKENING” The PMI data are not a fail-safe guide to the outlook for the economy. Immediately after the Brexit referendum in 2016, they pointed to a sharper downturn than was actually the case. But longer-term trends in the all-sector PMI generally match up well with official quarterly growth numbers. “September’s decline is all the more ominous, being the result of an insidious weakening of demand over the past year rather than a sudden shock,” Williamson said. Firms which took part in Thursday’s survey - which does not cover retailers - reported that foreign customers were switching business away from Britain due to fears of a no-deal Brexit. New export orders fell at the sharpest rate since March, when Britain was originally due to leave the EU. Solid consumer demand has so far cushioned Britain’s economy from some of the impact of Brexit uncertainty, helped by the lowest unemployment rate since 1975 and wages that are rising at the fastest pace in a decade. But the latest survey added to signs from consumer sentiment surveys that jobs could be becoming less secure. Services businesses shed staff at the fastest rate in nine years in September. Taken as a whole, this week’s PMIs pointed to the sharpest fall in employment since December 2009. Firms said they mostly reduced staff by not replacing leavers, rather than through lay-offs. -- © Copyright Reuters 2019-10-03 Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johng Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 The other day was economy "unexpectedly" stronger ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post soalbundy Posted October 3, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted October 3, 2019 Why unexpected ? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evadgib Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, johng said: The other day was economy "unexpectedly" stronger ? Project fear is to be expected until halloween if Parliament fail to scupper brexit beforehand. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Off-topic post removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post fishtank Posted October 3, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted October 3, 2019 2 hours ago, evadgib said: Project fear is to be expected until halloween if Parliament fail to scupper brexit beforehand. We can only hope that a crash out Brexit is avoided. Project reality is alive and kicking. Bungle Johnson's strategy relies on a crash out brexit for his own personal agenda. Stuff the country. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baerboxer Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Long time ago I was a contributing member to the CIPS PMI when it was established and for many years. As with all statistics, use if for support rather than enlightenment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cryingdick Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 At least England is jumping off the deck chairs that constitute the economy of Titanic Europe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Boatfreak Posted October 4, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted October 4, 2019 31 minutes ago, Cryingdick said: At least England is jumping off the deck chairs that constitute the economy of Titanic Europe. I think Zimbabwe said the same when they left the British Empire. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evadgib Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 26 minutes ago, Boatfreak said: I think Zimbabwe said the same when they left the British Empire. Lammy is unlikely to get the top job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Tracy Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Unexpected by whom? Analysts, economists and other waste of rations? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chomper Higgot Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Cryingdick said: At least England is jumping off the deck chairs that constitute the economy of Titanic Europe. England? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evadgib Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said: England? Not yet ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thingamabob Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 IHS/CIPS/PMI are a waste of time. Highly politicised and not capable of correctly producing this kind of survey. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazes Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 A good example this of fake news. The headline does not justify what follows in the hack's article. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thingamabob Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 19 hours ago, billd766 said: I agree with not putting the responsibility wholly on the EU. Teresa May should accept 50% of the responsibility. It took her over 3 years to screw up Brexit for the EU and people are blaming Boris for the problem now, when he cannot do the job properly due to parliament and lawyers restricting from doing his job. Correct. Boris operating in very difficult circumstances through no fault of his own. But he's no fool and may be able to conjure up something. Tough though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srikcir Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 4 hours ago, Boatfreak said: I think Zimbabwe said the same when they left the British Empire. Zimbabwe's independence and departure from the Commonwealth had nothing to do with the state of the UK economy. Mugabe told a crowd a few years ago when he was celebrating his 90th birthday: "The British, we don't hate you, we only love our country better." https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42003217 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dunroaming Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 20 hours ago, evadgib said: Project fear is to be expected until halloween if Parliament fail to scupper brexit beforehand. "Project Fear" to the rescue again ????. Surprised nobody has had the tee shirts printed yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evadgib Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 1 hour ago, dunroaming said: "Project Fear" to the rescue again ????. Surprised nobody has had the tee shirts printed yet I'm working on the gloat-dance as stated elsewhere ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dunroaming Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 3 hours ago, evadgib said: I'm working on the gloat-dance as stated elsewhere ???? Maybe goat dance would be more appropriate ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StreetCowboy Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 7 hours ago, Thingamabob said: Correct. Boris operating in very difficult circumstances through no fault of his own. But he's no fool and may be able to conjure up something. Tough though. Boris stopped Brexit once, and he’ll stop it again. Good job, Boris! He might not claim the credit for it, but you and I know who sabotaged Brexit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StreetCowboy Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, Srikcir said: Zimbabwe's independence and departure from the Commonwealth had nothing to do with the state of the UK economy. Mugabe told a crowd a few years ago when he was celebrating his 90th birthday: "The British, we don't hate you, we only love our country better." https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42003217 Ian Smith took that country to independence. Mugabe led his country to glory. Will Boris do the same? Edited October 4, 2019 by StreetCowboy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruntoid Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 (edited) On 10/3/2019 at 6:04 PM, evadgib said: Project fear is to be expected until halloween if Parliament fail to scupper brexit beforehand. How many people are now operating under your ‘Project Fear’ ? So all the purchasing managers of all political persuasions no doubt in a feat of incredible organisational skill, had a clandestine meeting in a back street hotel to derail Brexit correct ? Only they were lucky to get a room as the worlds economists were next door, the farmers next to that one, the retailers booked a whole floor and the builders took the rest !! I wonder how much membership is to this mysterious ‘Project Fear’ ? Have you got nothing else ? Edited October 4, 2019 by Bruntoid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruntoid Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 10 hours ago, Thingamabob said: IHS/CIPS/PMI are a waste of time. Highly politicised and not capable of correctly producing this kind of survey. Just how long is the leavers list of bias organisations now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruntoid Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 7 hours ago, Thingamabob said: Correct. Boris operating in very difficult circumstances through no fault of his own. But he's no fool and may be able to conjure up something. Tough though. “But he’s no fool” ???????????????? Currently on a 0/7 run and couldn’t see any of them coming ? Your statement is an insult to fools! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StreetCowboy Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bruntoid said: Just how long is the leavers list of bias organisations now ? Government, Parliament, the Courts, the Queen, All our institutions and 48% of voters are traitors to the nation. Britain cannot be free until it has been ripped asunder and rebuilt as an anarco-cynicalist commune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StreetCowboy Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Bruntoid said: “But he’s no fool” ???????????????? Currently on a 0/7 run and couldn’t see any of them coming ? Your statement is an insult to fools! It is a compliment to fools that we do not consider Boris one of their number. He is our Defender, who has prevented Brexit once, and will do so again until he dies in a ditch. Good job, Boris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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