Strengthening of baht and divisive politics could hurt Thai economy

[snoop1130]

Strengthening of baht and divisive politics could hurt Thai economy

By The Nation

 

Anusorn

 

The baht could shoot up to Bt29 against the US dollar when the US Federal Reserve cuts the policy rate by another 25 basis points this month, according to Anusorn Tamajai, director of Economic and Business Research Centre for Reform at Rangsit University.

 

If, as seems likely, the Fed lowers its key policy rate again, pressure would be put on the Thai baht which has been seen by investors as a safe haven. The strengthening of the baht has already brought headaches to Thai policymakers, with exporters complaining their competitiveness is being eroded as the exchange rate makes Thai products more expensive. The Bank of Thailand has been preparing to launch new measures that are expected to include capital outflow liberation, the opening of the currency exchange business allowing exporters to place money overseas, management of the gold trade and a current account surplus.

 

The Thai baht has appreciated about seven per cent since early this year, edging closer to Bt30 per dollar and last week hitting a six-year high.

 

Uncertainties in the global economy remain high even though US President Donald Trump agreed to postpone tariff hikes od 30 per cent on Chinese goods worth $250 billion due to come into effect this week, Anusorn added.

 

It is expected that the US and China will achieve a partial trade deal. However, the US still plans to raise tariffs to 15 per cent on another batch of Chinese goods worth $160 billion in December.

 

Anusorn cited some researchers who have suggested that prolonged trade tension would severely damage the Chinese economy, costing around 25-30 per cent of China’s gross domestic product while costing the US about 5 to 10 per cent of its GDP.

 

The US dollar remains favourable for reserve currencies estimated to be at 65 to 70 per cent of global reserves while the Chinese yuan accounts for only 1 to 3 per cent of global currency reserves.

 

China, however, has a strong fiscal position as the government has large international reserves.

 

China could also strengthen its international role via the Belt and Road initiative as well as its high-tech industry and artificial intelligence.

 

The US recently blacklisted Chinese tech companies accusing them of violating the rights of minority Muslim populations in China and Trump also commented on the Hong Kong protests indicating that if the Chinese government were to use violence to suppress protestors, it would affect the trade deal between US and China. US actions suggest that it is linking trade issues with human rights, which could mean that trade tension will continue and affect global trade and economy, experts say.

 

In Thailand, divisive politics have the potential to dampen both consumer and investor confidence, Anusorn warned.

 

Opposition politicians, academics and civil groups are campaigning to amend the junta-sponsor Constitution while the Army Chief opposes the move.

 

“Hate speech could deepen political conflicts and adversely affect confidence. There is a need for political reconciliation by all sides and a determined move towards democracy and raising the standard of living of the people” he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30377393

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-10-14

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

[Hayduke]

14 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

In Thailand, divisive politics have the potential to dampen both consumer and investor confidence, Anusorn warned.

 

The patriotic and correct-thinking Army Chief must stage an immediate, pre-emptive coup...to prevent this hybrid political divisiveness from endangering the country.  

 

 

Edited October 14, 2019 by Hayduke

[Elkski]

Wow some intelligence shining through

[PatOngo]

15 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

There is a need for political reconciliation by all sides and a determined move towards democracy and raising the standard of living of the people” he added.

 

Where have I heard that before?

[BuckBee]

well if thailand implemented actions 2 months ago it would of been well above 30 and not like go below 30 .

base rate needed cutting and never should of gone up to 1.5, they need  put it down again and implement further control on investment and ease outgoing rules .  Main thing is needs doing asap as effects on export/manufacture are getting huge and hard pull it back if wait too long, to many other cheaper options in the region and they got better government and immi policy .

With amount of money uncle buck banana spent on silk shirts, watches, MP's for election win and chinese hardware/projects tough times are ahead.

Been far wiser spending on water management infrastructure and education and encouraging BOT act swift on currency control .

[ChipButty]

Local Thai people are suffering they've got no money the government dont give a flying <deleted>, our cleaners come today borrow 2000 Baht because no tourist here

[RotBenz8888]

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

Strengthening of baht and divisive politics could hurt Thai economy

Could? Isn't the economy already impacted?

[jethro69]

21 hours ago, Hayduke said:

 

The patriotic and correct-thinking Army Chief must stage an immediate, pre-emptive coup...to prevent this hybrid political divisiveness from endangering the country.  

 

 

I have to admit, I did no research on this. But within this 30+ coup d'état(s) Thailand have seen since its existence in 1932. Has there been yet one Junta overruled another Junta.

Yeah, technically speaking, they call them now an elected government.

I <deleted>.

 

Edited October 15, 2019 by metisdead
Profane acronym removed.

[EricTh]

1 hour ago, ChipButty said:

Local Thai people are suffering they've got no money the government dont give a flying <deleted>, our cleaners come today borrow 2000 Baht because no tourist here

 

I noticed the popular restaurant that I went to in the tourist area seem to be quiet recently. In the past, there were lots of tourists eating there. 

 

Thailand has been complaining about the strong baht for years now but nothing concrete seems to be done.

 

[jerojero]

Yes, same as bringing happiness to the people. 5 glorious years of happiness recently. Give the MAN a medal. Oh sorry, he has 49 already.

Where have I heard that before?

[billd766]

4 hours ago, Hayduke said:

 

The patriotic and correct-thinking Army Chief must stage an immediate, pre-emptive coup...to prevent this hybrid political divisiveness from endangering the country.  

 

 

Don't give Apirat ideas as you may not like the results.

[ChrisY1]

Buying gold, Bentleys, Porches and of course, offshore properties....a lot easier for the elite with a strong baht....have to wait for instructions tho'.

[RichardColeman]

21 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

the opening of the currency exchange business allowing exporters to place money overseas,

I imagine exporters are too worried about keeping their business afloat and surviving poor policies than moving money abroad

[yellowboat]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

“Hate speech could deepen political conflicts and adversely affect confidence. There is a need for political reconciliation by all sides and a determined move towards democracy and raising the standard of living of the people” he added.

A lovely dream but the army will continue to ruin Thailand for everyone.

[Liverpudlian]

12 hours ago, ChipButty said:

Local Thai people are suffering they've got no money the government dont give a flying <deleted>, our cleaners come today borrow 2000 Baht because no tourist here

Time to sack the cleaners .

[Cadbury]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

“Hate speech could deepen political conflicts and adversely affect confidence......"

Not only confidence! These deranged outbursts by General Apirat must have potential investors wondering if the country is once again going to return to being run by a military junta and dictator.

No self respecting foreign investor would want to risk their money in Thailand while tanks and armoured vehicles rumbled in the streets.

Apirat is a serious threat to the economy and a danger to the country. He is putting Prayut's EEC projects and HS trains at risk.

The problems associated with the high baht would be nothing compared to the damage this man could do. 

[helloagain]

It will hurt not could hurt

[madmitch]

18 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

These deranged outbursts by General Apirat must have potential investors wondering if the country is once again going to return to being run by a military junta and dictator.

I thought it still was!

[Assurancetourix]

19 minutes ago, helloagain said:

It will hurt not could hurt

It's already hurt since maybe 4 or 5 years ...

[Xonax]

Compared to 5 years ago, I get 25% less Baht for my Euro, so if anyone in the government are still wondering, why European tourists no longer travel to Thailand, just look at the below chart showing Euro vs Baht during the last 5 years.

https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/FX/EURTHB/chart

Edited October 15, 2019 by Xonax

[30la]

Has the Thai economy been losing hits for months now, the blame? Your monetary policy that allows the few to become richer and the rest of the population become poorer!

[miamiman123]

Ask the Thai bank collectors how are thai people spending money they don’t have. 
answer: “We call them every month and tell them you are late on your iPhone payment again.... then they hang up on us”.

Ha! 

[Eligius]

This idiotic, protean term, 'hate speech', is so vacuous and over-used. It means, in practice, any words that the Powers That Be don't like to hear. 

I wonder whom Anusorn has in mind when he speaks of 'hate speech'. I bet it is not the members of the junta and the ruling faux-elite. Remember how this same Anusorn had a rosy vision of economic improvement just after the fake election? As was written of him at the time: 'he was optimistic that the economy would be boosted by the election of a new government'.

That worked out well, didn't it?! 

 

Edited October 15, 2019 by Eligius

[wazzupnow]

hey make this guy priminister may be we wil get somewhere

[quadperfect]

Does anyone else here notice whats happening in the usa banking system? Its QE4

Its too late already. The 100 billion per day for bank bailouts till january will destroy the usd. And america. If 70 percent of the worlds currency is usd the entire world is going to be in a depression. And usa will be in a civil war. Its doomsday folks so nothing to do now but prep.

Maybe gold and silver but i certainly wont buy baht. Maybe thai gold.

[kevinmartyn]

This post in unreal. Not only is the Thai exports damaged but all that goes along with that. I feel Thailand will drift into the abyse!

[Expat Brad]

The USA is doing it's best to bring down China. Using every BS excuse. Now it's the Chinese not treating it's Muslim minorities right. What sanctions are they imposing on countries such as Turkey that are openly slaughtering it's ethnic minorities? None, Turkey is not an economic threat!!! Oh, and a founding member of the UN. What a joke.

America is the cause of multiple countries economic pain. All for the make America Great Again rubbish. Stuff the rest of the world as long as America remains Number 1. 

 

 

[Sonhia]

Thai seem to rely far too heavily on tourism which the majority of Thai seemingly forget by way of their obvious lack of respect demonstrated toward foreigners especially Westerners, so the fall in trade etc... could be fuelled by factors such as Thai negitive mind-set attitudes plus dislike toward ex-pats as well as tourists, and the reliance on mainly First world countries, their negligence plus carefree mind-set attitudes toward education, employment, enviroment, social care, law abiding and so on?

 

Every person plus nation has a place, maybe Thai should reconsider their place on the World stage and stop trying to play with big boys toys?

 

Why has / is tourism.fallen / falling? Is it due to World events or more  connected with Thai attitude plus  dislike, more so, toward Western (farang / falang) ex-pats plus tourists? The red tape? The Big Brother obsession? An administration run forcibly by the army?

 

World markets have an impact on us all, but the obvious dislike toward Westerners; who spend  a lot of money in Thailand that are generally more polite, civil and aware of the enviroment, is in my opinion the real problem. Thai have in recent months shown far too much favouritism toward non Western.nationals that spend far less money, are given relaxed visa rules and regulations that come across as being more aggressive, uncaring and less respectful toward Thais.

 

Just my opinion. 

 

It comes as no surprise Western tourist figures are down with many ex-pats leaving the land of double edged swords plus smiles to your face, knife in your back.

 

 

 

[The Preacher]

Think about this.  During the last brouhaha over government mandated medical insurance for expats, I think I read that there are 80,000 folks here on retirement extensions.  If half of them do the 800,000 baht in the bank method, that's 32 BILLION baht of free foreign capital the banks are enjoying for nine months out of the year.  When they increased it from three months to nine months, it had the effect of tripling that free foreign capital.  

 

This could only strengthen the baht.  Of course the old shopworn story that the deposit is necessary to prove an expat has something on which to live on was revealed as <deleted>  when the fixed it so that none of the money could even be spent.  The Bangkok elite own the banking and insurance industry.  What is going on is beyond transparent.  It is a blatant grab.

[wealthychef]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Bank of Thailand has been preparing to launch new measures that are expected to include capital outflow liberation, the opening of the currency exchange business allowing exporters to place money overseas, management of the gold trade and a current account surplus.

Isn't it always this way, socialism for the wealthy while the poor are lectured on the virtues of capitalism?