Baht to further strengthen, expert warns

[BobinBKK]

3 hours ago, Brer said:

I don’t know how you can live on that figure, I guess you just eat lettuce, live alone and don’t go anywhere. 

You must be a lucky one to get that amount, the part pension they give me is substantially less.

I budget and review every month there is no way I could live on 38k baht with my wife and we don’t live a decadent life.

I budget myself on 38,000 baht per month and live in a very nice condo with a gym and swimming pool. I eat healthy and travel often domestically and internationally. I have money for "entertainment" but I don't waste money on alcohol as I see many people do.

[Carolina Reaper]

1 hour ago, pattayamick said:

Look at it on the bright side. 30 Baht for a dollar is not bad.

when I settled here in the early 1970’s. 1 US$ was 20,30 Baht for many years.

Remember when it hit 44+ a couple of times somewhere in the very beginning of 2000's? And gold here was like THB 5750/baht gold. And I had a sweet dot-com job back in the States. Happy Days.

 

Now I ponder such questions as, "How many flavors does Mama come in?" (Meant the instant noodle soup.)

Edited October 25, 2019 by Carolina Reaper

[Pedrogaz]

I actually had a little bit of luck with the baht. I used to run my own fund in which I kept a tidy some of money in about 7 currencies. I did this for years, not to make, money but to maintain the spending power as all currencies cannot go down at the same time....and you spend the more expensive currency. It all worked great until I got a phone call from this rather unpleasant Aussie lass telling me to get my money out of her bank. Apparently the bank was not a 'deposit taking institution' and only for parking money short term after exchanging it. 

I have no choice but to bring the money over here.....and guess what the baht got stronger and stronger. Serendipity.

[JohnOFphon]

29 baht to one USD and I won't have enough to meet the 65000 per month. So sad.

Got a friend living in Kompot Cambodia..says it nice...but no shopping malls, Big C, Tescos..Little if any restaurant serving anything other than fish. yuck. 

[marqus12]

18 minutes ago, saengd said:

Yes, all entirely valid points. BUT, government debt levels are extremely low,

It is not extremely low. It is the world average level 
and developed economies with more debt to GDP that TH
have a very large part of their debt bought back by central banks.

With one push of the button, they can reduce Euro Zone debt about 40%.

They just not dare ... Yet!

[malt25]

3 hours ago, keith101 said:

I DONT KNOW WHERE YOU GOT THAT FIGURE FROM  but my next payment due Monday will be around 35,200 well under what your saying and going down despite the bi-annual increases to the pension . The actual 28 day payment is $1,700.80 which the basic amount which all overseas pensioners get .

It would appear we don't all get the same aged pension payment.

[Carolina Reaper]

7 minutes ago, JohnOFphon said:

29 baht to one USD and I won't have enough to meet the 65000 per month. So sad.

Got a friend living in Kompot Cambodia..says it nice...but no shopping malls, Big C, Tescos..Little if any restaurant serving anything other than fish. yuck. 

There's also crispy tarantulas.

[saengd]

8 minutes ago, marqus12 said:

It is not extremely low. It is the world average level 
and developed economies with more debt to GDP that TH
have a very large part of their debt bought back by central banks.

With one push of the button, they can reduce Euro Zone debt about 40%.

They just not dare ... Yet!

The world average, on what basis?

 

Thailand debt to GDP level is 41%, the GDP level is USD 455 bill, foreign currency reserves are USD 215 bill. that nets at an extremely low figure.

[KenKadz]

Cambodia retirement looking better!

[alzack]

Time to move to Zimbabwe 

[Angry Dragon]

30.19 to the USD now on Superrich.  Haven't seen it that low in months!  Come on Baht, make it to the 20s!

[joecoolfrog]

4 hours ago, Yinn said:

The surplus this year will reach $34 billion, he said. Thai economic growth is expected to expand by 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, while growth in the third quarter is estimated at 2.7 per cent.

 

The Thai economy is predicted to expand 2.8 per cent for the full year. 

 

The US-China trade war and Brexit would largely determine the direction of the global economy. Uncertainty about the trade relationship and the Brexit deal has led many central banks to ease policy in order to shore up economies

 

 

Thailand ok. If world slump, we will be ok.

 

 

A strong baht doesn't mean everything is ok , many people are deeply in debt and struggling.

Tourism is not floroushing as much as TAT suggests and a downturn allied to further export woes could create major problems.

Yes I know the US and UK are also having trouble but their economies dwarf that of Thailand and are less reliant on a small number of sectors.

 

Edited October 25, 2019 by joecoolfrog

[IsaanAussie]

This is the AUD vs THB since April. The candlesticks are the daily trades and the curves show the 100 and 200 day simple moving averages. The takeaway is simple the trend has been going down steadily and will continue that way. Forecasts show it could go as low as 17 baht within the next few years.

Edited October 25, 2019 by IsaanAussie

[PS2]

4 hours ago, Yinn said:

20.6 to 19. So 35,000 per month will be 1600 less.

And you will divorce? For 1,600 baht? 

True love? 

Maybe get a job/work permit?

Maybe the Thai wife should get a job.. 

[stevemac]

Already taken her and hates it and we have been married for nearly 10 yrs and together for over 13 and did not expect the exchange rate to get so bad .

Hope she doesn't read tlor mail. Might take the decision out of your hands!

Sent from my SM-G965F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[baansgr]

Totally irrelevant....what is relevant is exports down,  company closures, daily redundancies, tourism in decline and even Thai Air on the brink of collapse.... Stop reading Wilkie figures and see what's really happening  to the economy. It's in a truly dire state. 

[stevemac]

I choose to stay only 4-6 months a year in thailand.I have pension enough to have a good life there.Anyway i will stay 6-8 months a year in norway.Thailand is expencive for many to live in,even thais complain because everything gets more expencive.

I'm the same, 4-5 months/ yr. I could survive on the amount the op states, but would not be comfortable. Having said that, he'll be on the same pension if he goes back home, with a much higher cost of living (and more lonely)!

Sent from my SM-G965F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts and replies have been removed. 

[Millcx]

AND WATCH AS ROME BURNS ... Because it will 

[ujayujay]

So then, byebye Thailand. Had 12 good Years here, spent a lot of Money. Can do this in Vietnam too in Future!

[Surasak]

4 hours ago, Yinn said:

20.6 to 19. So 35,000 per month will be 1600 less.

And you will divorce? For 1,600 baht? 

True love? 

Maybe get a job/work permit?

Not the best thought out answer, Yinn. If Keith101 is here on a retirement visa extension, there is no chance of a work permit.

And it might only be 1600Baht, doesn't sound much in the greater scheme,  but that is 41 Quid to me per month, no small amount when some are only receiving a government pension.

[saengd]

I don't know if this is the tin foil hat brigade or just wishful group think, either way there's not a lot of fact coming out to support the doomsday scenario!

Edited October 25, 2019 by saengd

[Bangkok Barry]

Okay, I'm a simple soul who has never studied economics, but how does this massive reported surplus of S34 billion exist while at the same time the government is planning to borrow 348 billion Baht to cover the fiscal 2019 deficit? (yesterday's report)

[Spock]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

"Up the creek with out a paddle" means to have problems I made an addition to the saying to mean to have very big problems,just my sick humor.You remember asian financial crisis?

I am happy I send a lot money when Australian dollar was strong now I just wait until strong again.

You will be waiting a long, long time.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Okay, I'm a simple soul who has never studied economics, but how does this massive reported surplus of S34 billion exist while at the same time the government is planning to borrow 348 billion Baht to cover the fiscal 2019 deficit? (yesterday's report)

I haven't seen those numbers nor can I relate to them, do you have a link?

[joecoolfrog]

2 hours ago, saengd said:

The subject was a comparison of GDP growth, not any other measure!

Yes except you made a ridiculous oranges and apples comparison , how is Thailand doing against regional nations , Vietnam for example.

[Spock]

2 hours ago, Sticky Wicket said:

Yes i was in one the other day!

 

Got to add 17% to those prices too!!

So a pint of any of these beers costs close on $20 Australian? Why would anyone spend such a large amount of money on a beer in Thailand (or Australia)?

[saengd]

6 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

Yes except you made a ridiculous oranges and apples comparison , how is Thailand doing against regional nations , Vietnam for example.

That poster said Thailand's GDP growth rate was terrible (or similar), 2.6% is, by comparison, very reasonable, especially in the current climate and given the reliance on trade with China. 

 

Thailand's GDP is twice that of Vietnam, of course Vietnam's GDP growth rate is higher.

Edited October 25, 2019 by saengd

[Magenta408]

I suggest between sips and burps that you look at your own currencies. Take a look at the GBP, Euro, $CDN and $AUS as compard to the US dollar and Swiss Franc. All losing ground and all in a deathknell. The Baht will only answer to its regional competititors and that hubris will depend just how much water Thais can count on receiving from the Mekong and we know that China now controls the flow of the Mekong.

[aBigSmile]

The litany of explanations is pure governmental propaganda that attempts to mask the true reason behind the strengthening THB; namely, a relatively high interest rate that attracts foreign capital to park in Thailand. As long that disparity exists, the TBH will keep raising, harming tourism and export alike.

 

BTW, the interest rate in Thailand is hight as the lending institutes puts pressure on the government to maintain it as such, so they can earn handsomely off their loans. A classic case where the greeds of the few runs roughshod over the many.