Inflation

[ray23]

I will just give one example and see what else people are noticing;

Yesterday I bought six donuts at Tesco' cost 109 baht

One month ago 99 Baht.

I know the cost per barrel is down, but I'm not seeing much difference at the pump.

[Meerkat]

Aiyaa - could this be the beginning of what will go down in history as the Great Doughnut Bubble of '07?

[bendix]

I'd also advise all pastry investors to go short on Bakewell Tarts, and long on Apple Strudel.

[highchol]

I'd also advise all pastry investors to go short on Bakewell Tarts, and long on Apple Strudel.

dont put all your pastry in one basket otherwise you may see it disapear in a puff

[sonicdragon]

My 5megapixel camera cost $250 recently. But 4 years ago it was $1500. Economists can't even agree on what inflations is, let alone how to measure it.

[Meerkat]

I'd also advise all pastry investors to go short on Bakewell Tarts, and long on Apple Strudel.

Ah yes, good call. Known to the cognoscenti of course as the Strudebaker Spread.

[cclub75]

My 5megapixel camera cost $250 recently. But 4 years ago it was $1500. Economists can't even agree on what inflations is, let alone how to measure it.

And even more : to calculate the famous "CPI" they use a "comfort" factor for some items of their "products basket".

Year 1, the reference computer with 512 MB of RAM costs 100.

Year 2, the reference computer now have 1 GB and it cost 80.

The "inflation index" for this item should be -20 %.

But because the computer has more RAM, the statisticians will change the index, by saying that its "comfort factor" has increased (for the same price or less, you get a product that "do" more).

Therefore, inflation index (corrected) will be for instance -30%, instead of -20 %.

At that point, it's easy to understand that CPI and other inflation mesurements are... massaged. And are subject to manipulation and/or misinterpretation.

[PhilHarries]

My 5megapixel camera cost $250 recently. But 4 years ago it was $1500. Economists can't even agree on what inflations is, let alone how to measure it.

And even more : to calculate the famous "CPI" they use a "comfort" factor for some items of their "products basket".

Year 1, the reference computer with 512 MB of RAM costs 100.

Year 2, the reference computer now have 1 GB and it cost 80.

The "inflation index" for this item should be -20 %.

But because the computer has more RAM, the statisticians will change the index, by saying that its "comfort factor" has increased (for the same price or less, you get a product that "do" more).

Therefore, inflation index (corrected) will be for instance -30%, instead of -20 %.

At that point, it's easy to understand that CPI and other inflation mesurements are... massaged. And are subject to manipulation and/or misinterpretation.

So if the reference computer in year two costs 120 you could still argue a negative rate of inflation?

What do they say about lies damm lies and stats?

[JAS21]

I will just give one example and see what else people are noticing;

Yesterday I bought six donuts at Tesco' cost 109 baht

One month ago 99 Baht.

I know the cost per barrel is down, but I'm not seeing much difference at the pump.

I live here now and it seems to me that in general things are more expensive that they were say even 6 months ago..its still much cheaper that the UK...anyway it doesn't cut very far into our Uk pensions does it! must say though the 520d I have just bought was much more expensive than in the uk .

We still manage to have breakfast for 50baht at the local noodle shop though, so am not too worried...have you seen the price rises in the uk over the last 12 months..then you would have something to complain about.

[ray23]

Not complaining at all, but not being from the UK and watching the dollar shrink and prices for day to day goods going up is not a good feeling. I'm very glad I have all the major pruchase out of the way.

You didn't like donuts just using that for feed back so lets talk about housing. Same house in the same area, same lot size that I bought for 1.4 one year ago is now selling at 1.9 . Reason increase in contruction supply costs.

Now to me that is a huge jump in cost in one year, but then again it may not be to others.

Used to fill the tank on the bike for less then 100 baht, now 300 Plus baht. in just four years. Isn't going to break me, but to me that is again a huge increase in a very short period of time.

At a time when things are a bit shakey here anyway. If I notice this what about the guys who builds the houses working for 170 Baht day, what effect these thing have had on him?

Lets see with the current rate of exchange I lose about 24K a month on what I bring in each month, That is enough to pay my house payment and truck monthly. So when that happens and expense go up at the same time. Yes that gets my attention.

I Don't live in the UK or America, but I do live here and what happens here does effect me.

So what was the name of that tart agian.

[cclub75]

I know the cost per barrel is down, but I'm not seeing much difference at the pump.

It's because of... Thaksin.

Yes, him again.

For 1 year and a half, and for populist reasons, they have subzidied the price of gasoline.

But there is no free lunch. This stupidity ended by a... debt of 100 billions THB.

So after the subsidize was lifted, they created a small tax on gasoline, to pay back the Oil Fund.

Recently, the gvt said that it will increase this tax.

So even if oil price are going down (which is not the case right now...), the retail price of gasoline won't follow.

[LoveDaBlues]

Just got a quote to build my new house. 304 meters for 2.9 million. That's with the highest-quality materials throughout. I can probably get the cost down to 2.5 or so without sacrificing any quality where it really counts.

[LoveDaBlues]

To combat the rising price of diesel/benzine.....anyone thought about going with CNG? Last I looked CNG was around 12 baht per liter. I'm in Udon Thani; wonder if CNG is available here?

Ray.....you bought yer place at the right time. You're in good shape with no big-ticket items to buy. Me on the other hand...........

Edited March 27, 2007 by LoveDaBlues

[PeaceBlondie]

Some economists get all upset if you define "inflation" the same way ten standard dictionaries do: as price increases. They say inflation is when the govt. prints too much money. We know we're talking about price increases.

91 octane benzene/gasoline is back up to 27.54 baht to the liter, and that's high. If it costs you 300 baht to fill the tank on your bike, that's about 11 liters (big tank!).

Doughnut prices in my Tesco Lotus fluctuate.

[jumnien]

Donut prices up, diabetes down!

[chiang mai]

I will just give one example and see what else people are noticing;

Yesterday I bought six donuts at Tesco' cost 109 baht

One month ago 99 Baht.

I know the cost per barrel is down, but I'm not seeing much difference at the pump.

They sell donuts by the barrel? Wheeee. I'll have six barrels to go, and a coffee please.

Edited March 27, 2007 by chiang mai

[soundman]

A donut republic?

soundman.

[PCA]

Inflation is high, very high actually and those who dont feel and see it yet are either blind, dumb or both.

As an expat living here one might not be hit hard on the wallet while having many chances to save at one or the other side of expenses.

More scary is that it hurts the Thais by themselves. Since we are no more than paying guests, as hard as it sounds, we get also treated like that with little to no rights and jealousy on our life style.

So finally less purchasing power of the Thais and it hits the very majority of them leads to growing hate against the "rich" and especially on the foreigners.

Thats another valid aspect of inflation beyond price change. Just think about it.

[ray23]

Station they are building one on Ring Road now.

Fuel costs didn't say it was a 125 and it is not.

Donuts and medical probelms no help there got an oven and the wife is a great cook

Imagine how much lovedablues would have saved a year ago when the baht was at 41. He doesn't imagine it he has told me.

Timing on the house was absolutley correct, just luck

Original cost of the house in Dollars 34,146 today $ 55,882

In one year thats just nuts. Problem is if I replace it I will be paying today prices. So unless I'm quitting Thailand not such a good deal to sale.

If you don't have concerns about the cost of living here, you either are a lot richer then I am and maintain the same approach you won't be for long. Or you don't live here.

Thailands economy is effected by this, domestic purchases are down. Do you really think the average Thai sets around and watches the markets all day long, I seriously doubt it. There not spending money because they can't.

They are buried in credit card debt and the disposal income does not exist. How many farming debts do yuo think the government can forgive.

This is just one aspect of this economy one that I don't like what I'm seeing. Put the others in to the equation, and things may get very interesting in the next year or so.

I don't care how much money you have it is what is the buying power that matters in the end.

[LoveDaBlues]

Ray, I don't even want to look at the numbers......

got lucky when I bought the Fortuner 42.15 : 1

oh well.....every dog has his day

the property is paid for. I'm pretty sure it can't walk away....might just "hunker down" and wait for the good ole days to return.....meanwhile rent at 6K baht doesn't hurt much....decisions, decisions

[LoveDaBlues]

Inflation is high, very high actually and those who dont feel and see it yet are either blind, dumb or both.

As an expat living here one might not be hit hard on the wallet while having many chances to save at one or the other side of expenses.

More scary is that it hurts the Thais by themselves. Since we are no more than paying guests, as hard as it sounds, we get also treated like that with little to no rights and jealousy on our life style.

So finally less purchasing power of the Thais and it hits the very majority of them leads to growing hate against the "rich" and especially on the foreigners.

Thats another valid aspect of inflation beyond price change. Just think about it.

Something as simple as a 6 baht increase in diesel prices will have a huge rippling effect on many Thais. Most of us (farangs) would not be effected at all; maybe bitch about it but no change to lifestyle.

[ray23]

Lovedablues, I don't think I want to trade palces with you at the moment, rent is still cheap, the land is paid for and you can't get hurt on the buy, at the price yuo bought it.

But building wg ho knows, maybe the baht will strengthen. It does and you will kick yourself for not moving. You do move and things crash and it's back to 56 to one, you will lose.

Two years ago was much easier not so much to think about in the equation.

Maybe in the end you just have to do what makes you happy. Darned if I know

[solo siam]

My 5megapixel camera cost $250 recently. But 4 years ago it was $1500. Economists can't even agree on what inflations is, let alone how to measure it.

And even more : to calculate the famous "CPI" they use a "comfort" factor for some items of their "products basket".

Year 1, the reference computer with 512 MB of RAM costs 100.

Year 2, the reference computer now have 1 GB and it cost 80.

The "inflation index" for this item should be -20 %.

But because the computer has more RAM, the statisticians will change the index, by saying that its "comfort factor" has increased (for the same price or less, you get a product that "do" more).

Therefore, inflation index (corrected) will be for instance -30%, instead of -20 %.

At that point, it's easy to understand that CPI and other inflation mesurements are... massaged. And are subject to manipulation and/or misinterpretation.

Its subjective though, A computer that can run the latest games or software may cost lets say $1,000 this year, next year to get that same level of performance and run the latest games/software etc... the computer may cost $1030 for example.

Technology prices are typically excluded simply because people opt for better technology at similar or higher prices, which is why there are so many big screen TV's etc... nowadays.

When I was young computer games cost $12.99, they are now $59.99 - Computers have gone down, but not the high spec machines, they run about the same (or more) cost year on year, My PC two years ago cost me 35,000 baht, the new PC I want is nearly 40,000 baht.

[quiksilva]

I haven't really noticed prices climb all that much but portions of food definitely seem to be getting smaller. Sizzler's steaks for example seem to have shrunk alot especially over the last 6 months.

[backflip]

The inflation rate provides a normalized statistic which might or might not reflect a specific individual's experience. I'm not sure why many posters believe that the rate should reflect them personally. Calculating your own personal inflation rate is not rocket science, but it does require rigorous record keeping and initiative. I guess that's why it is so unpopular.

[sonicdragon]

The inflation rate provides a normalized statistic which might or might not reflect a specific individual's experience. I'm not sure why many posters believe that the rate should reflect them personally. Calculating your own personal inflation rate is not rocket science, but it does require rigorous record keeping and initiative. I guess that's why it is so unpopular.

Very perceptive comment. Most people don't understand what inflation (as defined by the powers that be) is.

[cclub75]

The inflation rate provides a normalized statistic which might or might not reflect a specific individual's experience. I'm not sure why many posters believe that the rate should reflect them personally.

Oh... but we perfectly understand it.

It's not rocket science.

An individual who :

-owns his house (with mortage fully paid back)

-doesn't drive a car, but instead like to use low cost airlines

-buys huge amount of electronic stuff (computer, LCD screens etc.)

-and eats only cao pad kai or McDonald

This individual will feel no inflation at all (except for his... equity).

[soundman]

I haven't really noticed prices climb all that much but portions of food definitely seem to be getting smaller. Sizzler's steaks for example seem to have shrunk alot especially over the last 6 months.

This is not a joke at all...

I buy about 1000k'gs of adhesive glue a month. For 5 years there has never been a price rise. Five years ago I received 17kg's of glue in the standard package. These days I am receiving abou 9kg's in the same package for the same price.

Not that it applies to me, but, does the company that supplies the glue think most small retail cutsomers won't notice small monthly deviation in the amount of a product actually inside the tin?

Soundman.

[bingobongo]

ah....inflation....the theft of wealth

so say i make 100,000 baht, i get a whooping raise of 2000 per month, or $57 USD per month (2000/35), gee, i can almost buy nothing extra BEFORE TAXES

PAY INCREASES

Thais slip behind rest of Southeast Asia

Salaries of region's professionals growing faster than in Europe and N America

However, Thai professionals are expected to lag behind. Pay rises after inflation will range from 1.9-2 per cent, lower than the Philippines' 1.5-2.5 per cent and Hong Kong's 2.2-2.5 per cent.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/03/16...al_30029439.php

[Heng]

Inflation is high, very high actually and those who dont feel and see it yet are either blind, dumb or both.

Or they simply have been planning ahead all along. And yes, that includes not having to lay off employees just because the cost of doing business goes up and keeping their wages and profit share on par with the cost of living.