UK's Conservatives set for biggest win since 1987: YouGov model

[snoop1130]

UK's Conservatives set for biggest win since 1987: YouGov model

By Andy Bruce, Guy Faulconbridge

 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives at Healey's Cornish Cyder Farm, in Callestick, Britain, November 27, 2019. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS - RC2QJD9VBZKQ

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s Conservative Party is on course to win its biggest majority in parliament since 1987 at a Dec. 12 election, according to a new poll, which would give Prime Minister Boris Johnson a mandate to take the country out of the European Union.

 

The model developed by pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election result, showed the Conservatives are set to win 359 seats out of 650, which would be their best result since Margaret Thatcher’s victory in 1987.

 

Johnson has pledged to deliver Brexit by Jan. 31 if he wins after nearly four years of political crisis that has shocked allies of a country once considered one of the pillars of Western economic and political stability.

 

Since Britain voted to leave the EU in a June 2016 referendum, Johnson and his predecessor Theresa May have both tried and failed to get deals to leave the 28-member bloc through parliament because they lacked a majority.

 

“Our first MRP model projection for the 2019 election suggests that this time round the Conservatives are set for a majority,” said Anthony Wells, director of political and social research at YouGov, referring to its Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model.

 

“The swing to the Conservative party is bigger in areas that voted to Leave in 2016, with the bulk of the projected Tory gains coming in the North and the urban West Midlands, as well as former mining seats in the East Midlands,” said Wells.

 

The British pound, which rose when rumors of the poll results circulated, shot up when it was published, rising half a cent in minutes to hit a day’s high of $1.2948.

 

The main opposition Labour Party is on track to secure 211 seats, down from 262, according to the YouGov model. The Scottish National Party (SNP) was on 43, the Liberal Democrats on 13 and the Brexit Party was not expected to win any seats.

 

HEADING FOR BREXIT

 

The YouGov model crunched data from more than 100,000 interviews over seven days along with demographics, specific constituency circumstances and national statistics to come up with a projection.

 

It shows the election is now Johnson’s to lose.

 

According to the model, the Conservatives would gain 47 seats: 44 from Labour, two from the Lib Dems and the seat previously held by the Speaker of parliament. Labour are not on course to win any new seats.

 

“Most seats changing hands are ones that Labour won in 2017 that are now set to be taken by the Conservatives,” YouGov said. “What happens in these constituencies is the most important dynamic in deciding whether Boris Johnson has a majority, and how large it ends up being.”

 

The Brexit Party is hurting the Conservatives more than Labour, while independents are finding it difficult to pick up seats, according to the model. It showed neither Johnson nor Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab are in danger of losing their seats.

 

Dominic Cummings, who is Johnson’s senior adviser, cautioned before the YouGov results were released that a hung parliament was still a real possibility.

 

“You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win,” he said. “Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are much tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.”

 

The margins of error in the model put the Conservatives seat projection between 328 and 385, YouGov said, adding that there was still plenty of time for people to change their minds before Dec. 12 - the first Christmas election in nearly a century.

 

In late May 2017, just over a week before the June 8 election, YouGov’s model projected Theresa May would lose her majority, even though she had been ahead in most polls.

 

The model, developed by Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics and Doug Rivers of Stanford University, was accurate: May did lose her majority, a failure that complicated Brexit and eventually destroyed her premiership.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-11-28

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[Orton Rd]

Lets hope so or Marxist Corbyn will bankrupt the country for years to come paying for his bribes to the electorate.

[ivor bigun]

The pound will go up if Boris has a large majority and Brexit goes through .

[Mavideol]

26 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Britain’s Conservative Party is on course to win its biggest majority in parliament since 1987 at a Dec. 12 election, according to a new poll,

which poll, order by whom? the same (fake) site that was run by the conservatives...hmmm smells fishy,

[3NUMBAS]

the thought of a confederacy of labour dunces in power makes his win more or less easy

[PremiumLane]

4 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

Lets hope so or Marxist Corbyn will bankrupt the country for years to come paying for his bribes to the electorate.

But I guess when the money is only going to the rich and not the people of the country that is OK then? Bet you call yourself a patriot too, smell the irony?

[Orton Rd]

2 minutes ago, PremiumLane said:

But I guess when the money is only going to the rich and not the people of the country that is OK then? Bet you call yourself a patriot too, smell the irony?

Almost everyone will be taxed more to pay for his straw clutching give a ways, even pensioners on 14k a year will pay 400 pounds a year more. He's a multi millionaire of course with an enormous pension and a member of the upper middle class, who although he goes on and on about the workers, has never actually been one himself.

[Orton Rd]

4 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

The pound will go up if Boris has a large majority and Brexit goes through .

I think he might well end up being the best PM since Thatcher

[Rookiescot]

This car crash is going to be good.

I have already got the popcorn in.

Have you all started looking at private health insurance yet? I think you will need to.

[Loiner]

Who believes the pollsters anyway? They have  been proved useless on numerous occasions. 

The only positive is that this time they reflect the mood of the nation. They would have been better taking opinion from people on barstools rather than their models. Modelling is better left to miniature railways and girls on catwalks. 

[sotonowl]

YouGov are for my money the best pollsters. They have the Conservatives landing a 68 seat majority in the HoC. They've called it right before when the others were way off. This was quite a large poll of over 100,000 people taking part. The 2017 election they were bang on the money.

But the results come with a caveat. I think they said there are 30 marginals what they reckon the Tories will win. If those seats were to go the other way, bearing in mind they are marginals, then we'd be entering hung parliament territory.

I get the impression the Tories are quietly confident though, Dominic Cummings, the power behind the throne so to speak has stated today that it's too close to call. I think this is just a rallying call to the lethargic to get up off their backsides and make sure you go out to vote.

Boris seems to be running scared of being interviewed by Andrew Neill now, can't say I blame him to be honest, Neill ripped Corbyn a new one in an interview earlier this week.

It's all to play for and there's a lot at stake. Labour are rumoured to have contingency plans in place for a run on the pound if they're elected, bad news for all of us but especially for the Ex Pats wherever they are.

[daveAustin]

6 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

He's a multi millionaire of course with an enormous pension and a member of the upper middle class, who although he goes on and on about the workers, has never actually been one himself.

No change there, all the bigwigs are, this is how it rolls in the bollllox system. Talk twaddle and get yourself up there if you want to effect change. 

 

Even if you hate em, it has to go this way to move the place on. Any ardent remainer that disagrees is being puerile and selfish.

[bkk_mike]

9 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

I think he might well end up being the best PM since Thatcher

Boris isn't even the best PM of the last two. And Theresa May wasn't exactly popular.

 

As for Corbyn's spending. Apparently, even the worst he could come up with is still better for the economy than Boris's Brexit plan.

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4005698/corbyn-government-deal-brexit-ifs

 

And if you think Boris's deal isn't a No Deal brexit, it took two years to ratify the EU-Canada deal after it was agreed. Johnson will have 11 months, and they haven't started yet. (and we have Northern Ireland and Gibraltar to deal with in trying to get unanimous approval for a deal from the EU's member states).

 

Edited November 29, 2019 by bkk_mike

[sammieuk1]

And no bus required for the lies this time impressive at least this will finally be the end of whispering Corbunkel ????

[jesimps]

This election will be a confirmation of what the people voted for in the 2016 referendum. The remainers shenanigans have cost the UK billions over the last three years as well as making us a laughing stock with the rest of the world. It all goes to show that MPs are the servants of the people and should listen to what the majority are saying. After all, the purpose of the referendum was to let the people make a decision on what the MPs couldn't agree at Westminster over many years. Labour, the Tory (so-called) remainers and the rest of the opposition parties absolutely disgust me.

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, bkk_mike said:

Boris isn't even the best PM of the last two. And Theresa May wasn't exactly popular.

 

As for Corbyn's spending. Apparently, even the worst he could come up with is still better for the economy than Boris's Brexit plan.

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4005698/corbyn-government-deal-brexit-ifs

 

And if you think Boris's deal isn't a No Deal brexit, it took two years to ratify the EU-Canada deal after it was agreed. Johnson will have 11 months, and they haven't started yet. (and we have Northern Ireland and Gibraltar to deal with in trying to get unanimous approval for a deal from the EU's member states).

 

May was a disaster, a weak, cowardly, duplicitous Remainer, cosying up to the EU and trying to enact BRINO while lying to the UK electorate. Whilst I am no fan of Johnson I think he should at least be given a chance to govern with a working majority before he is judged to be anywhere near as bad as her.

 

That article you linked to is dated 8th October, before Labour released their 2019 loony manifesto, in fact before the 2019 election was even called. Corbyn's spending was not even announced when that was written therefore all the assumptions it makes are completely irrelevant to your argument.

 

You are correct we could still have No Deal with Boris' deal. Which is why I prefer a clean break sooner rather than later. No point paying 39 Billion and having 12 months more pain to end up in the same place, arguing with an intransigent, bitter EU. Better to leave with No Deal on 31 January 2020. Hopefully this is Boris' secret plan all along.

 

 

[yodsak]

15 hours ago, Mavideol said:

which poll, order by whom? the same (fake) site that was run by the conservatives...hmmm smells fishy,

Latest poll trackers.  

[puipuitom]

The choice between narrow-minded English  nationalism ór an een archaïsc form of extreme left.

I wish the English whisdom. The Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish... will form a Gaelic co-federation with Eire inside the EU. Just like the Flamish wants Belgium to go for

[Baerboxer]

15 hours ago, PremiumLane said:

But I guess when the money is only going to the rich and not the people of the country that is OK then? Bet you call yourself a patriot too, smell the irony?

 

Money going to the rich - like Corbyn and his wife, and his cronies you mean?

 

He wants to take other people's money from them and re-distribute it how he sees fit? No thoughts of efficiency, effectiveness or cost control of course. 

 

But not his own money of course.

 

[Baerboxer]

22 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

The choice between narrow-minded English  nationalism ór an een archaïsc form of extreme left.

I wish the English whisdom. The Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish... will form a Gaelic co-federation with Eire inside the EU. Just like the Flamish wants Belgium to go for

 

Utter nonsense!

[abrahamzvi]

The Poll may be right on the one constituency or the other, but what I really can't understand or believe is that the Tories will win a seat from the LibDem, and not lose any to them. If one looks at constituencies on the outskirts of London like Wimbledon or Richmond and others like Finchely, this can't be correct. I most certainly am not a pollster, but I would guess from speaking to various people in the UK, who usually vote Conservative, that the LibDem would get at least 30-40 seats.

[Baerboxer]

5 hours ago, jesimps said:

This election will be a confirmation of what the people voted for in the 2016 referendum. The remainers shenanigans have cost the UK billions over the last three years as well as making us a laughing stock with the rest of the world. It all goes to show that MPs are the servants of the people and should listen to what the majority are saying. After all, the purpose of the referendum was to let the people make a decision on what the MPs couldn't agree at Westminster over many years. Labour, the Tory (so-called) remainers and the rest of the opposition parties absolutely disgust me.

 

You really don't understand how a representative democracy is supposed to work do you?

 

You really should read up on the British Constitution and parliamentary processes, representation and the tyranny of the majority. It would explain a lot to you.

[Baerboxer]

5 minutes ago, abrahamzvi said:

The Poll may be right on the one constituency or the other, but what I really can't understand or believe is that the Tories will win a seat from the LibDem, and not lose any to them. If one looks at constituencies on the outskirts of London like Wimbledon or Richmond and others like Finchely, this can't be correct. I most certainly am not a pollster, but I would guess from speaking to various people in the UK, who usually vote Conservative, that the LibDem would get at least 30-40 seats.

 

A lot of pro Remain voters might've been tempted to vote LibDem as they promise to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

 

However, the very poor performances from the LibDem leader and their sell out to the Tories when in coalition on many issues seems likely to impact very badly on this.

[vogie]

12 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

A lot of pro Remain voters might've been tempted to vote LibDem as they promise to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

 

However, the very poor performances from the LibDem leader and their sell out to the Tories when in coalition on many issues seems likely to impact very badly on this.

The Lib/Dems have reverted to plan A now and are now calling for a second referendum, as they realise that their arrogant approach to democracy is not going down too well with the people who voted in the referendum, whether leave or remain.

Edited November 29, 2019 by vogie

[PremiumLane]

16 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

Almost everyone will be taxed more to pay for his straw clutching give a ways, even pensioners on 14k a year will pay 400 pounds a year more. He's a multi millionaire of course with an enormous pension and a member of the upper middle class, who although he goes on and on about the workers, has never actually been one himself.

actually he has made it clear that the super rich will be paying, got proof of your pensioners being taxed a lot more, and not from the Mail or the Sun ???? 

[lemonjelly]

Can’t believe how the working class are prepared to vote for the likes of Jacob Rees Smug, Boris et al.... Labour have really lost touch 

[JonnyF]

3 minutes ago, PremiumLane said:

actually he has made it clear that the super rich will be paying, got proof of your pensioners being taxed a lot more, and not from the Mail or the Sun ???? 

BBC fact checker good enough?

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50567031

 

 

So yes, pensioners on 14K a year could pay 400 pounds more tax. Not exactly the super-rich.

[yodsak]

 

Yesterdays Oddschecker. 

[Thingamabob]

It would be great to see the value of the pound increase, but two weeks is a long time in politics and  nothing is certain. Could yet be a hung parliament I fear.

[Jimbo53]

9 hours ago, jesimps said:

This election will be a confirmation of what the people voted for in the 2016 referendum. The remainers shenanigans have cost the UK billions over the last three years as well as making us a laughing stock with the rest of the world. It all goes to show that MPs are the servants of the people and should listen to what the majority are saying. After all, the purpose of the referendum was to let the people make a decision on what the MPs couldn't agree at Westminster over many years. Labour, the Tory (so-called) remainers and the rest of the opposition parties absolutely disgust me.

My thoughts exactly!!!

especially the so called Lìberal 'Democrats' Jo Swineson,that has said they will revoke Article 50,and scrap Brexit..AFTER 17.4 Million people voted to LEAVE at the ballot boxes!! What is 'Democratic' about that? We will be out in January...Happy 2020 to the 17.4 million.and all the others whom have joined them since the start of this farce.