Dr. Somkid insists Thai economy remains good but growing slowly

[saengd]

Exactly, in part it's a supply chain issue, in another part it's shifting markets, all in the same way that a hard Brexit would be a global economic issue.

[roobaa01]

300000 to 400000 laid off already 

by next year 500000 young graduates are unemployed acc. to bangkok post.

 

how many lost jobs in the service industry and entertainment industustry due to

tourism decline ??? same in construction due to condo oversupply ???

 

all tit.

 

wbr

roobaa01

 

[SuperTed]

Morning! In order of concern

 

1. Thai Gov’t is linking 300,000 to 400,000 job losses directly to the trade war. Although TH still plays both sides of US/China rift, one has to think the point is to blame the US for the job losses. More bad news for farangs in TH.

 

2. No numbers were given for drop in TH exports to US and China, nor a rationale as to WHY the beef between the two countries affected their imports from TH. I don’t think TH is assembling products for export to either country, rather assembling for SEA sales. So what is the rationale for drop in exports? If it was global slowdown, he should have said that. But its not. It’s the rise of the neighbors, while TH lags behind.

 

3. Talking about global growth together with TH growth is worse that a lie. TH is a developing nation, and needs to be developing at the same rate as Malaysia, PHP, Indonesia, Vietnam (5-7%) or risk moving down from a happy 2nd world country to a 21st Century 3rd world country. Imagine young Thai college graduates going to the African bush, marrying locally to avoid visa rules, and teaching English to make a living, because a low African wage is better than no wage at home.

 

4. Exports are going down because all products have lifecycles, and foreign manufacturers (who drive TH manufacturing growth) are not reinvesting in Thai production facilities due to perceived instability. More growth for Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam at the expense of TH.

 

5. The good news is that TH appears to be avoiding becoming a debtor to China, despite the difficult financial situation. Other Asian nations have failed to do this, and now China is wresting control of key national facilities from them. If there is one thing TH is good at, it is managing the influence of foreign powers. TVF haters of Chinese tourists may disagree, please post somewhere else.

[saengd]

Point 3 - Thai GDP is far higher than Vietnam and other neighbours, it is also more established. Assuming that it should grow at the same rate as the newcomers is not necessarily valid.

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

 

The Thai economy is not bad, just slowing down, said Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak

Delusional

[KhunKenAP]

Thai stock market starting to crash, baht rising through speculation with no government action, tourism in the dump, exports in trash, government only goes after elected opposition, and the list goes on.

 

When will the citizens wakeup and get rid of these fools?

 

 

[toenail]

I do not have a doctorate degree in economics but the professor is only demeaning himself saying the Thai economy is “good”.  With the decrease of exports ( due to the strong baht & the China-USA tariff war),  decline of tourism, and Thais being too much in debt (according to the banks) it is obvious that the economy is something to be concerned about.  I’d have more respect for professor Somkid if he spoke facts to prove his optimistic report. 

Edited December 2, 2019 by toenail

[Soikhaonoiken]

Another propaganda story from the Government, why can't they man up and tell the truth for a change, I think the report from Kbank a few days ago was nearer the the mark, as that stated Thailand was on the brink of a recession..... 

[Aspaltso]

I'm not an expert, but I reckon the economy in Thailand could be gaining an advantage by setting up new supply chains that are resulting from the China-U.S trade war, but it doesn't seem to be happening at a pace, or scale that is benefitting Thailand's economy. Vietnam seems to be gaining most of the advantages from the new supply chains, and it is a shame for Thailand's economy that it cannot do the same.

[Cake Monster]

8 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Funny man is Dr Somkid. Last week he came out with.............Sssh! "Don't mention the economy"; "if we keep talking about it, it'll make good things look bad......"

Today, in contradiction of his earlier remarks, he out and about in a depressive mood mentioning the economy and talking it down by telling everyone it is not doing so good and 300,000 to 400,000 workers have been laid off because of the drop in exports and factory shut shut downs.

And the predicted GDP growth which was originally set at 3.3% is now only 2.4%.

I suppose at least he is being honest about it, in contrast to TAT and some of the other flaky government spokespersons. Khun Prayut Chan-o-cha is maintaining shameful wall of silence; as he should.

Chin up everyone....we still have the "eat, spend, travel, shop" stimulus programme going......ad nauseum.

 

 

 

if the lay off figures and the GDP are understated by what is normally at least a 50% overstatement value then the figures should be more like 

450,000 - 600,000 workers laid off, and a GDP of 1.5%

A tad  closer to reality me thinks.

[saengd]

5 hours ago, SuperTed said:

Morning! In order of concern

 

1. Thai Gov’t is linking 300,000 to 400,000 job losses directly to the trade war. Although TH still plays both sides of US/China rift, one has to think the point is to blame the US for the job losses. More bad news for farangs in TH.

 

2. No numbers were given for drop in TH exports to US and China, nor a rationale as to WHY the beef between the two countries affected their imports from TH. I don’t think TH is assembling products for export to either country, rather assembling for SEA sales. So what is the rationale for drop in exports? If it was global slowdown, he should have said that. But its not. It’s the rise of the neighbors, while TH lags behind.

 

3. Talking about global growth together with TH growth is worse that a lie. TH is a developing nation, and needs to be developing at the same rate as Malaysia, PHP, Indonesia, Vietnam (5-7%) or risk moving down from a happy 2nd world country to a 21st Century 3rd world country. Imagine young Thai college graduates going to the African bush, marrying locally to avoid visa rules, and teaching English to make a living, because a low African wage is better than no wage at home.

 

4. Exports are going down because all products have lifecycles, and foreign manufacturers (who drive TH manufacturing growth) are not reinvesting in Thai production facilities due to perceived instability. More growth for Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam at the expense of TH.

 

5. The good news is that TH appears to be avoiding becoming a debtor to China, despite the difficult financial situation. Other Asian nations have failed to do this, and now China is wresting control of key national facilities from them. If there is one thing TH is good at, it is managing the influence of foreign powers. TVF haters of Chinese tourists may disagree, please post somewhere else.

"Imagine young Thai college graduates going to the African bush, marrying locally to avoid visa rules, and teaching English to make a living, because a low African wage is better than no wage at home"

 

I think that describes the Phillippines to a tee!

 

"Exports are going down because all products have lifecycles, and foreign manufacturers (who drive TH manufacturing growth) are not reinvesting in Thai production facilities due to perceived instability. More growth for Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam at the expense of TH". and

 

"No numbers were given for drop in TH exports to US and China, nor a rationale as to WHY the beef between the two countries affected their imports from TH. I don’t think TH is assembling products for export to either country, rather assembling for SEA sales. So what is the rationale for drop in exports? If it was global slowdown, he should have said that. But its not. It’s the rise of the neighbors, while TH lags behind".

 

Vietnam for example has membership of twelve Foreign Trade Agreements along with a developed infrastructure and labour force. Thailand on the other hand is under an EU ban resulting from fishing and labour rights, that's why the numbers are skewed in favour of Vietnam and others.  

 

But it should be remembered that Thailand's GDP is circa 450 bill whilst Vietnam (for example) is only half that amount at 229 bill.  Vietnam's growth rate at 7.9% is still less in dollar terms than Thailand's at 2.9%. 

Should it be higher? Not given the FTA imbalance it shouldn't.

[Knocker33]

It’s all a misunderstanding 

[Redline]

10 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

I'm surprised he didn't say "It's just a flesh wound!"

A scrape 

[khunpa]

7 hours ago, roobaa01 said:

300000 to 400000 laid off already 

by next year 500000 young graduates are unemployed acc. to bangkok post.

 

how many lost jobs in the service industry and entertainment industustry due to

tourism decline ??? same in construction due to condo oversupply ???

 

all tit.

 

wbr

roobaa01

 

 

Just wait and see. Next year we will get the report (which we get every year), that Thailand remains the country, with the worlds lowest unemployment rate.

 

The problem will go away, when that next report comes out. So no need to really worry about it.