Knife-edge? UK's Johnson ahead but polls suggest majority might be tough

[rooster59]

Knife-edge? UK's Johnson ahead but polls suggest majority might be tough

By William Schomberg and Michael Holden

 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson talks to team members during a warm up before the Hazel Grove United JFC vs Poynton Juniors girls soccer match, as he campaigns in Cheadle Hulme, Britain December 7, 2019. REUTERS/Toby Melville/Pool

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Boris Johnson is heading into Britain's election next week with a lead in opinion polls, but some of the surveys also suggest that his chance of winning a parliamentary majority could be too close to call.

 

Four opinion polls published on Saturday put the lead of Johnson's Conservative Party over the main opposition Labour Party at between eight and 15 points, five days before the Dec. 12 national election.

 

At the lowest end of that range, Johnson cannot count on winning the majority in parliament he needs to take Britain out of the European Union by Jan. 31, especially if voters choose to put aside their usual allegiances to vote tactically over Brexit.

 

Polling firm Savanta ComRes said Johnson's lead over Labour had shrunk to eight points from 10 in a previous poll published on Wednesday - the tightest margin of Saturday's four surveys.

 

Its head of politics, Chris Hopkins, said the final few days of the campaign could be crucial.

 

"The margins are incredibly tight," he said. "The Conservative lead over Labour dropping or increasing by one or two points could be the difference between a hung parliament and a sizeable Conservative majority."

 

The election pits Johnson's plan to get Brexit done next month against Labour's call for a second referendum on a new Brexit deal under its veteran socialist leader Jeremy Corbyn.

 

Opinion pollsters were embarrassed by Britain's last election in 2017, when they under-estimated the size of Labour's support which cost previous prime minister Theresa May her majority and threw Brexit into chaos.

 

They also failed to predict the victory of the Leave campaign in the 2016 EU membership referendum.

 

However, one poll, published before the 2017 election, by YouGov, was more accurate in predicting the number of seats won by each party.

 

Known as an MRP poll - an acronym for its Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification model - it predicted 93% of results in individual constituencies correctly.

 

The Sunday Times said a poll by Datapraxis, also using the MRP model and based on 500,000 online interviews, predicted that Johnson would win a majority of 38 in parliament next week, down from a projection of 48 two weeks ago.

 

"We have never seen as many undecided voters this late in the campaign," Datapraxis boss Paul Hilder said. "As many as 80-90 constituencies are still up for grabs. A much larger Conservative landslide is still possible - but so is a hung parliament."

 

YouGov said last month that its MRP model suggested the Conservatives were on course for a majority of 68. YouGov will publish an updated version of the poll on Tuesday.

 

Best for Britain, a group that wants a second referendum to stop Brexit, said an MRP poll it commissioned showed Johnson was on course to win 345 seats in parliament - or a majority of 40 - without tactical voting, a term for when people back parties they do not usually support in an attempt to defeat others.

 

But tactical voting by 41,000 voters in just 36 swing seats could prevent Johnson from getting a majority, it said.

 

"This election is on a knife-edge," the group's chief executive Naomi Smith said. "If enough remainers hold their nose and vote for the candidate with the best chance of stopping the Tories (Conservatives) in their seat we're heading for a hung parliament and a final say referendum."

 

(Reporting by Michael Holden; Editing by William Schomberg and Daniel Wallis)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-12-08

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[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

but so is a hung parliament

I wonder if that is well hung, or a teenie weenie problem?

[roobaa01]

reuters as well as most of the biased main stream which strongly dislike the brexit, they fail to advise about nigel farage. the nigel farage party will make sure that torys gain the upper hand with brexit.

 

wbr

roobaa01

[DannyCarlton]

5 minutes ago, roobaa01 said:

reuters as well as most of the biased main stream which strongly dislike the brexit, they fail to advise about nigel farage. the nigel farage party will make sure that torys gain the upper hand with brexit.

 

wbr

roobaa01

I think they'd need an MP in parliament to do that. I predict that the Green Paty will have more MPs than the Brexit Party, with one MP.

[Orton Rd]

Hard to understand how anyone could vote for Jew hating, capitalist hating terrorist loving comrade Corbyn and his dim witted ex girlfriend Dianne Abbopotomous. They have kept her very quiet, but then she has been busy with her son who attacked two Policemen last week biting ones ear, do they know who his mum is? ????

[Nigel Garvie]

8 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

Hard to understand how anyone could vote for Jew hating, capitalist hating terrorist loving comrade Corbyn and his dim witted ex girlfriend Dianne Abbopotomous. They have kept her very quiet, but then she has been busy with her son who attacked two Policemen last week biting ones ear, do they know who his mum is? ????

Well the Tories have managed to hide Rees Mogg, and gutless Boris has chickened out of key interviews, so they must know that the more the public see of the Toff party the less votes they will get. 

[Orton Rd]

Boris participated in the debates with comrade Corbyn and won both, appearing in front of weasel mouthed labour supporting, so called interviewers, would be against his and the nations interests. Boris is no buffoon, he's the next prime minister.

[DannyCarlton]

5 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

Boris participated in the debates with comrade Corbyn and won both, appearing in front of weasel mouthed labour supporting, so called interviewers, would be against his and th nations interests. Boris is no buffoon, he's the next prim minister.

Probably the next Prime Minister but, for the life of me, I can't imagine where you got "Boris is no buffoon" from. Maybe you were referring to Boris Spassky, can't have been Johnson.

 

 

[Baerboxer]

2 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

Hard to understand how anyone could vote for Jew hating, capitalist hating terrorist loving comrade Corbyn and his dim witted ex girlfriend Dianne Abbopotomous. They have kept her very quiet, but then she has been busy with her son who attacked two Policemen last week biting ones ear, do they know who his mum is? ????

 

Interesting facts about Ms. Abbott. She sent her son to a private school, costing 10k GBP a year. Then on to Cambridge. She herself attended an old style grammar school for girls, then onto Oxford.

 

But of course, she despises grammar schools and private schools and wants to deny "normal" people the chance of seeing their children educated. 

 

Another glaring example of the left's philosophy of due as we say not as we do because we're more equal. Total blatant hypocrisy.

[BritManToo]

I despise Boris, but I despise Jeremy more.

I'm not keen on Brexit, but I'm not keen about indecision more.

[Caldera]

What baffles me is that there are so many people who are undecided. All the major issues at stake haven't changed for years. For God's sake, do have an opinion, whatever that may be.

[SheungWan]

48 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I despise Boris, but I despise Jeremy more.

I'm not keen on Brexit, but I'm not keen about indecision more.

Decisively indecisive.

[SheungWan]

39 minutes ago, Caldera said:

What baffles me is that there are so many people who are undecided. All the major issues at stake haven't changed for years. For God's sake, do have an opinion, whatever that may be.

Nothing much has changed if one has presumably been living in a remote cave for the last decade.

[Thingamabob]

3 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Well the Tories have managed to hide Rees Mogg, and gutless Boris has chickened out of key interviews, so they must know that the more the public see of the Toff party the less votes they will get. 

Ridiculous comment.

[Orton Rd]

1 hour ago, DannyCarlton said:

Probably the next Prime Minister but, for the life of me, I can't imagine where you got "Boris is no buffoon" from. Maybe you were referring to Boris Spassky, can't have been Johnson.

 

 

Bloke who speaks 4 languages, has a classics degree from Oxford, who has written several excellent book and who became mayor of London, the leader of his party and them PM is anything but a buffon. His books the dream of Rome and his biog of Churchill are particularity worth a read.

[DannyCarlton]

3 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

Bloke who speaks 4 languages, has a classics degree from Oxford, who has written several excellent book and who became mayor of London, the leader of his party and them PM is anything but a buffon. His books the dream of Rome and his biog of Churchill are particularity worth a read.

Sorry to shatter your illusions, but he's a buffoon.

[bannork]

4 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

Bloke who speaks 4 languages, has a classics degree from Oxford, who has written several excellent book and who became mayor of London, the leader of his party and them PM is anything but a buffon. His books the dream of Rome and his biog of Churchill are particularity worth a read.

Come on Orton, spell it right 'buffoon'. He may not be a buffon but he's a coward and a serial liar.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-lies-conservative-leader-candidate-list-times-banana-brexit-bus-a8929076.html

 

[Jonnapat]

Keeping my fingers crossed that it's not a hung parliament. 

This would have very negative affect on the rising pound.

Never ever voted Tory but this time thinking of my wallet. 

[JAG]

1 hour ago, Orton Rd said:

Bloke who speaks 4 languages, has a classics degree from Oxford, who has written several excellent book and who became mayor of London, the leader of his party and them PM is anything but a buffon. His books the dream of Rome and his biog of Churchill are particularity worth a read.

I agree, having read several of his books, including those two.

 

It is interesting that one of his greatest detractors, amongst Tory ranks, is Sir Max Hastings - who interestingly published a biography of Churchill at about the same time as Boris Johnson! Having read both books, Hastings's offering is the more scholarly, Boris's is by far the more entertaining read. Of course I am not  suggesting that the possible effect on his sales has in any way coloured Hastings's opinion of Boris!

 

As for him being a buffoon and a serial liar, the one is a carefully  cultivated image, the other is being assiduously pushed by such paragons of truth and virtue as The Independent, The Guardian, the BBC and Channel 4. The real problem with Boris is that he has something of a track record of winning votes from those who are not his (the Tories) natural constituency.  As Michael Gove said, when he was a leading journalist: " They shouted Boris you Tory w****r after him as he rode past on his bicycle, but they went out and voted for him - twice." That, I suggest, is why he is so hated in some circles...

[bannork]

46 minutes ago, JAG said:

I agree, having read several of his books, including those two.

 

It is interesting that one of his greatest detractors, amongst Tory ranks, is Sir Max Hastings - who interestingly published a biography of Churchill at about the same time as Boris Johnson! Having read both books, Hastings's offering is the more scholarly, Boris's is by far the more entertaining read. Of course I am not  suggesting that the possible effect on his sales has in any way coloured Hastings's opinion of Boris!

 

As for him being a buffoon and a serial liar, the one is a carefully  cultivated image, the other is being assiduously pushed by such paragons of truth and virtue as The Independent, The Guardian, the BBC and Channel 4. The real problem with Boris is that he has something of a track record of winning votes from those who are not his (the Tories) natural constituency.  As Michael Gove said, when he was a leading journalist: " They shouted Boris you Tory w****r after him as he rode past on his bicycle, but they went out and voted for him - twice." That, I suggest, is why he is so hated in some circles...

You've left out a considerable number of ex-Tory MPs, Ministers, and even an ex-PM, who are urging Tory supporters not to vote for the party this time. Unprecedented.

[JAG]

1 minute ago, bannork said:

You've left out a considerable number of ex-Tory MPs, Ministers, and even an ex-PM, who are urging Tory supporters not to vote for the party this time. Unprecedented.

Yes, ex Tory MPS who stood or campaigned against him in the Tory leadership contest (which he won convincingly incidentally ), ministers he sacked, and an ex PM who was hardly renowned for leading a united Tory party!

[bannork]

7 minutes ago, JAG said:

Yes, ex Tory MPS who stood or campaigned against him in the Tory leadership contest (which he won convincingly incidentally ), ministers he sacked, and an ex PM who was hardly renowned for leading a united Tory party!

He inherited a 'broad church' but turned his back on the moderates to appeal to the right-wing sect of nationalists who sadly believe in the return of the Empire, not realising that Boris's attempts to decouple the Uk from EU commitments to workers' rights etc will result in the working class of the UK getting truly stuffed on all fronts. Less investment, less jobs, and less rights.

[Jane Dough]

What would happen if nobody at all voted for anybody?

 

I have set a fine example in this endeavor.....why do so many let the side down?

 

Rooster

[elliss]

4 hours ago, Caldera said:

What baffles me is that there are so many people who are undecided. All the major issues at stake haven't changed for years. For God's sake, do have an opinion, whatever that may be.

 

             There will Not be a decisive majority, in the next election . 

             Brexit chaos , will continue,  gbp will fall again .

              Dammed indecision and cursed lies .  

 

 

[Loiner]

3 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

Sorry to shatter your illusions, but he's a buffoon.

Sorry to shatter yours, but he's also the PM and doing a better job than the last few of them.

 

3 hours ago, bannork said:

He may not be a buffon but he's a coward and a serial liar.

He's also on his way to being a serial PM too, back into No.10 again next week.

[bannork]

31 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Sorry to shatter yours, but he's also the PM and doing a better job than the last few of them.

 

He's also on his way to being a serial PM too, back into No.10 again next week.

A serial PM?! He hasn't won one general election yet.

[evadgib]

2 hours ago, bannork said:

You've left out a considerable number of ex-Tory MPs, Ministers, and even an ex-PM, who are urging Tory supporters not to vote for the party this time. Unprecedented.

Dom the Weasel?

The Hezletinies?

The Fat Controller? (Clarke!)

Maastricght Major?

 

The only thing they have in common is failure!

[DannyCarlton]

36 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Sorry to shatter yours, but he's also the PM and doing a better job than the last few of them.

 

He's also on his way to being a serial PM too, back into No.10 again next week.

He's not doing the job at all. He's Cummings puppet and just does as he's told. Don't you remember his "I'd rather be dead in a ditch than ask th EU for an extension". He broke two promises in one go to the great British public. He sent the letter and wasn't found dead in a ditch.

[bannork]

4 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Dom the Weasel?

The Hezletinies?

The Fat Controller? (Clarke!)

Maastricght Major?

 

The only thing they have in common is failure!

Please elaborate.

[Loiner]

3 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

He's not doing the job at all. He's Cummings puppet and just does as he's told. Don't you remember his "I'd rather be dead in a ditch than ask th EU for an extension". He broke two promises in one go to the great British public. He sent the letter and wasn't found dead in a ditch.

Cumming's puppet, Putin's puppet, who cares so long as he gets us out of the EU.

He probably would still prefer to be dead in a ditch, but the extension letter was his stitch-up forced by Remainers and a crooked court. I reckon that absolves him of any commitments otherwise. Would you feel better about political statements if he was found dead in a ditch?