Baht likely to react to Middle East situation, Thai budget debate

[webfact]

Baht likely to react to Middle East situation, Thai budget debate

By The Nation

 

‭During the week of January 6-‭10‬, KBank expects the baht to move within a range of Bt3‭0-‭30.‬30/USD.‭

 

‭Tensions in the Middle East after a US strike killed a top Iranian commander and‬‬ the budget debate will influence the value of the baht this week, says Kasikornbank (KBank).‬‬

 

‭‭The baht reversed gains and weakened against the US dollar‭ in the ‬‬first two trading days of the year, but it continued to be traded in a narrow range. The Bank of Thailand signalled that it was closely monitoring the baht's movement after it broke Bt30 to the US dollar to hit a six-and-a-half-year high of Bt29.75 amid thin trading volumes during the last ‬days of 2019. In addition, the weakening regional currencies weighed down the baht sentiment later in the week. On ‭Friday, ‭ ‬(January ‬3), the baht ‬closed ‬at ‭Bt30.16/USD versus the Bt30.15/USD reported on Friday (December 27, 2019). ‬

 

‭During the week of January 6-‭10‬, KBank expects the baht to move within a range of Bt3‭0-‭30.‬30/USD.‭ A key domestic factor to be ‬monitored closely ‭is ‬the debate on the 2020 Budget Bill in the Thai parliament.

 

External factors will include issues in‬ ‭the ‬next phase ‭of ‬the ‬US‭-China trade talks after the signing of ‭the‬ first phase agreement, the Middle East tensions, the UK parliament‭’s‬ consideration of the Brexit deal, and ‬Chinese economic data for‬ ‭December.

 

The ‭US ‬economic ‬data ‭to be ‭ ‬released during ‭the week ‬include ‭ ‬December ‭non-farm payrolls data, unemployment rate, ADP employment report, and the purchase managers' index and ISM non-manufacturing surveys, as well as the November factory goods orders data.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30380189

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-01-06

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[Isaan sailor]

Plain and simple: the Baht’s too damned high.

[userabcd]

20 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Plain and simple: the Baht’s too damned high.

By what reference, an exceptional event in 1997?

Edited January 6, 2020 by userabcd

[Isaan sailor]

10 minutes ago, userabcd said:

 

 

10 minutes ago, userabcd said:

By what reference, an exceptional event in 1997?

My reference: USD vs Baht 33.50 when I first came here.  Or USD @ 36.25 four years ago.  Looking at 30.13 right now.

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Isaan sailor

[RichardColeman]

 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The Bank of Thailand signalled that it was closely monitoring the baht's movement after it broke Bt30

monitoring, doing nothing and taking credit for anything positive

[topt]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

 

My reference: USD vs Baht 33.50 when I first came here.  Or USD @ 36.25 four years ago.  Looking at 30.13 right now.

 

And when I changed cash at the end of 2010 it was below 30........

2011 it went up a bit but in the summer (May and August) it again fell below 30 before starting to rise again.

 

[HHTel]

33 minutes ago, topt said:

And when I changed cash at the end of 2010 it was below 30........

2011 it went up a bit but in the summer (May and August) it again fell below 30 before starting to rise again.

 

You have to look at the dollar strength/weakness.  In the period you are covering, other currencies were high against the baht and the dollar.  GBP was running at around $2.60.  You can't blame the THB for being high in those days.  Now the THB is strong against all currencies.

[topt]

1 minute ago, HHTel said:

You have to look at the dollar strength/weakness.  In the period you are covering, other currencies were high against the baht and the dollar.  GBP was running at around $2.60.  You can't blame the THB for being high in those days.  Now the THB is strong against all currencies.

You are talking to the wrong person and please show me where I blamed the baht for anything........

My point was simply that in looking at rates they go up and down all the time and the high points mentioned by the poster I quoted are not necessarily indicative of where the $ should be.....

[Isaan sailor]

Amazing Thailand:

• with a trade war—the Baht rises

• when the trade war subsides—the Baht rises

• when the Chinese Yuan falls—the Baht rises

• when the Chinese Yuan rises—the Baht rises

• when the Euro falls—the Baht rises

• when the Euro rises (vs USD)—the Baht rises

• when exports fall—the Baht rises

• when tourists diminish—the Baht rises

[Roy Baht]

On 1/2/2020 at 5:01 AM, Roy Baht said:

In the meantime, a global event--a stock market crash, a war in the Middle East, the bursting of China's housing bubble--might send people running to BUY dollars,

 

What? A war in the Middle East? Who knew?

 

[Chivas]

2 hours ago, HHTel said:

You have to look at the dollar strength/weakness.  In the period you are covering, other currencies were high against the baht and the dollar.  GBP was running at around $2.60.  You can't blame the THB for being high in those days.  Now the THB is strong against all currencies.

Sterling was $2.60 ??  When fella lol !

Having just had a quick glance it looks like it was in 1971.....lets just say not in the 2010-2020 period you thought !

Edited January 6, 2020 by Chivas

[Chivas]

2 hours ago, HHTel said:

  Now the THB is strong against all currencies.

No....The Thai Baht is strong against the Benchmark USD and thats the only one that matters

[david555]

5 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Plain and simple: the Baht’s too damned high.

Plain and simple : I hope he is still damned high when I leave in 2022 MAY, so I can empty KK baht account for good cash in Euros …( different farang different interests....????)

 

by-by condo buying …...changing  plan Thai Gov.....!

[RBOP]

Nothing so far as the BOT is pegging baht since January 1st. 

[Chivas]

17 minutes ago, RBOP said:

Nothing so far as the BOT is pegging baht since January 1st. 

lol pegging Baht ??  Against what fella ??  Its a free floating currency and has been since 1997

[mickey rat]

5 hours ago, HHTel said:

You have to look at the dollar strength/weakness.  In the period you are covering, other currencies were high against the baht and the dollar.  GBP was running at around $2.60.  You can't blame the THB for being high in those days.  Now the THB is strong against all currencies.

Won't be for long. I predict the bottom will drop out this year. A repeat of 1997? Absolutely. Better spend it while it's worth a poop. ????

Edited January 6, 2020 by mickey rat

[charmonman]

11 hours ago, Chivas said:

No....The Thai Baht is strong against the Benchmark USD and thats the only one that matters

Not all of us are Americans, so the other ones DO matter to us.

[HHTel]

13 hours ago, Chivas said:

Sterling was $2.60 ??  When fella lol !

Having just had a quick glance it looks like it was in 1971.....lets just say not in the 2010-2020 period you thought !

You're correct.  I was looking at a BS chart (first one that came up).  However looking at other sources, it seems like it was around $1.71.

Apologies.

[HHTel]

13 hours ago, Chivas said:

No....The Thai Baht is strong against the Benchmark USD and thats the only one that matters

Yes, the USD is the world's reserve currency.  But the baht is strong and gaining strength against all the major currencies. GBP, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia etc etc.

In the past the baht has been strong against the dollar but weak against other currencies.  This is about the baht being strong generally. Remember when GBP as 73+ baht.  It certainly didn't show that weakness against the dollar at the time.

[Chivas]

5 hours ago, charmonman said:

Not all of us are Americans, so the other ones DO matter to us.

 

3 hours ago, HHTel said:

Yes, the USD is the world's reserve currency.  But the baht is strong and gaining strength against all the major currencies. GBP, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia etc etc.

In the past the baht has been strong against the dollar but weak against other currencies.  This is about the baht being strong generally. Remember when GBP as 73+ baht.  It certainly didn't show that weakness against the dollar at the time.

It is seriously disturbing it really is. Guys for christ sake there are TWO currency pairings in every exchange calculation.

The two that matter is firstly Dollar/Baht multiplied by "enter your own currency"/Dollar

 

We know the Baht is strong against the Dollar nobody disputes it but nevertheless it forms part of every calculation relating to Thailand but the problem is being exacerbated by the other side of the pairings namely our OWN currencies weakness against the Dollar

 

There is NO direct exchange rate between HK Dollar Malyasian Ringitt Singapore etc etc etc its the sum of two pairings that gives the bottom line. Either side effects the number crunch

 

There are no exceptions lol that is how foreign exchange is calculated !  Seriously Thaivisa should put a sticky on how foreign exchange is calculated. Its utterly mind boggling that people in a foreign country cannot grasp how it works

[BigC]

There is no reason  for the baht to be so high. It has to crash at some point

 

Cost of living going up for thais also

 

Less tourists

 

Means everybody shall be fighting for food and not spending money. 

 

If the baht continues  to rise and minimum  wage keeps going up.

 

The end cost goes to the customer  which cannot afford items 

 

If no one spends the baht has to crash

[charmonman]

On 1/6/2020 at 10:36 PM, Chivas said:

 

It is seriously disturbing it really is. Guys for christ sake there are TWO currency pairings in every exchange calculation.

The two that matter is firstly Dollar/Baht multiplied by "enter your own currency"/Dollar

 

We know the Baht is strong against the Dollar nobody disputes it but nevertheless it forms part of every calculation relating to Thailand but the problem is being exacerbated by the other side of the pairings namely our OWN currencies weakness against the Dollar

 

There is NO direct exchange rate between HK Dollar Malyasian Ringitt Singapore etc etc etc its the sum of two pairings that gives the bottom line. Either side effects the number crunch

 

There are no exceptions lol that is how foreign exchange is calculated !  Seriously Thaivisa should put a sticky on how foreign exchange is calculated. Its utterly mind boggling that people in a foreign country cannot grasp how it works

OK, so what matters me is the USD/THB multiplied by the CAD/USD. What is your point.? When I, as a non-professional currency trader, transfer money from my Canadian account to my Thai account, I use a CAD/THB exchange rate. I don't really care about the details of how it is calculated on the currency markets, or whether CAD/THB is a tradable currency pairing on those markets. I care about how everything in Thailand keeps costing me more and more CAD.

 

What do you find so disturbing about that?