Baht keeps strength despite coronavirus outbreak, economic decline

[saengd]

4 hours ago, mick220675 said:

The Baht won't significantly devalue until exports drop. It dose not matter how bad things get for the average Thai.

 

Export of agricultural products and manufactured goods may be down and tourism may be struggling, but Thailand is exporting gold and gold is in demand.

 

Thailand has massive gold reserves, but who is benefiting from the export off gold?

 

 

I believe the gold exports represents imported gold that is a side effect of the gem refinishing business, Thailand does not mine significant amount of gold but its gems setting and refinishing industry is huge.

[saengd]

4 hours ago, onebir said:

But Thailand is more dependent on most countries - even in SE Asia I think - on tourism. Many people are avoiding unnecessary travel: even tourism to France - with its neglible case count - has taken a big hit*. I'd count on that continuing until this virus is contained/becomes routinely treatable. With Asian countries dominating the case count rankings, and the extreme rapidity with which this thing 'goes viral' I think Asia will be taboo for Europeans/Americans for some time - the image of ending up in a foreign ICU doesn't make for a relaxing holiday. On top of this, potential Chinese tourists will have taken the largest economic blow. Facilities newly built to cater for them are likely to face cash flow problems etc. Echo epidemics in tourist-source developed countries may lead to travel disruption &/ Thailand imposing travel restrictions. The electronics industry is also severely disrupted; the impact on Asia generally from that seems likely to be larger than for other regions, with potential for lagged effects on electronics FDI into Thailand.

 

FCR and gold reserves would allow Thai policy makers support the baht, but if the economic impact is severe enough, they won't want to, or will at most aim to maintain an orderly devaluation.

 

*https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2020/02/25/tourism-in-france-set-to-plummet-by-30-40-due-to-coronavirus/#73464012a279

Tourism represents as much as 20% of Thai GDP, total exports represents as much as 63% (Tourism is an export). There is no doubt tourism will take a hit as a result of the virus and as you imply, exports will also suffer because of disrupted supply chains, 2020 will not be great for the Thai economy but the same can be said of any other economy also. It will come as no surprise if Thailand sees a technical recession this year, along with several other countries.

 

As exports fall (and this is an external supply chain issue) so the trade surplus and the current account surplus should fall also hence FCR's should stop growing at such a rapid rate. Those things should cause THB to lose value but not by a lot, a lower value Baht should cause exports to increase in volume, as long as supply chains allow this. Generally, a lower Baht will be good news for exporters and positive for the economy, FDI could also increase as a result since it would then be cheaper to invest in Thailand. The lower Baht probably wont do much for tourism since people will probably still not want to travel but over time that will change and tourism should recover.

 

All in all I see the things that are happening as being not bad news for the Thai economy, in fact, some of it is potentially quite good and much needed! Had things continued as they were Thailand would have been put on a currency manipulation watch list and this may now not happen. Plus exporters were already screaming about the high value Baht so now that problem goes away also and exporters are likely to export more. All in all things look quite positive for the Thai economy as a whole and I can understand the logic when BOT suggests GDP  will increase by 3 % this year. The downside of course will be that Mr/Mrs Average Thai who is involved in the tourism industry is going to suffer, tourism related businesses will also suffer, in fact there was an over supply of many things such as tourist hotels, tour guides, tour services etc anyway so this may not be altogether bad.

 

All things considered I'm very comfortable sticking with my projection that the Baht will lose about 6% or 8% at max. and that would make THB fair value once again. Any talk about about currency devaluation and defending the Baht is very premature, even if THB fell to 36 there wouldn't be any serious impact since Thailand has hardly no loans denominated in USD, they are all mostly in THB, plus the upside of cheaper increased exports is very desirable.

 

 

 

 

[stament]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Tourism represents as much as 20% of Thai GDP, total exports represents as much as 63% (Tourism is an export). There is no doubt tourism will take a hit as a result of the virus and as you imply, exports will also suffer because of disrupted supply chains, 2020 will not be great for the Thai economy but the same can be said of any other economy also. It will come as no surprise if Thailand sees a technical recession this year, along with several other countries.

 

As exports fall (and this is an external supply chain issue) so the trade surplus and the current account surplus should fall also hence FCR's should stop growing at such a rapid rate. Those things should cause THB to lose value but not by a lot, a lower value Baht should cause exports to increase in volume, as long as supply chains allow this. Generally, a lower Baht will be good news for exporters and positive for the economy, FDI could also increase as a result since it would then be cheaper to invest in Thailand. The lower Baht probably wont do much for tourism since people will probably still not want to travel but over time that will change and tourism should recover.

 

All in all I see the things that are happening as being not bad news for the Thai economy, in fact, some of it is potentially quite good and much needed! Had things continued as they were Thailand would have been put on a currency manipulation watch list and this may now not happen. Plus exporters were already screaming about the high value Baht so now that problem goes away also and exporters are likely to export more. All in all things look quite positive for the Thai economy as a whole and I can understand the logic when BOT suggests GDP  will increase by 3 % this year. The downside of course will be that Mr/Mrs Average Thai who is involved in the tourism industry is going to suffer, tourism related businesses will also suffer, in fact there was an over supply of many things such as tourist hotels, tour guides, tour services etc anyway so this may not be altogether bad.

 

All things considered I'm very comfortable sticking with my projection that the Baht will lose about 6% or 8% at max. and that would make THB fair value once again. Any talk about about currency devaluation and defending the Baht is very premature, even if THB fell to 36 there wouldn't be any serious impact since Thailand has hardly no loans denominated in USD, they are all mostly in THB, plus the upside of cheaper increased exports is very desirable.

 

 

 

 

So where do you see the baht going over the next few months? 33/34?

[saengd]

1 hour ago, stament said:

So where do you see the baht going over the next few months? 33/34?

Seems about right to me personally but of course I don't have a crystal ball and anything could happen to change things or even turn them on their head. Best thing to do is to set yourself a strategy and a strike price and stick to it, it wouldn't be good to keep chasing shadows into the future, chasing yield will cost you money. 

 

Another aspect of this is perspective, I used to watch lots of people on TVF agonize over (for example) whether to exchange Pounds at 45.25 or wait in hope for 45.50 and they were only exchanging 500 Pounds, the stress of it all probably reduced their life span by months, make sure the volume of the exchange is worth the risk of delay.

 

 

 

[Kenny202]

I don't have a clue about the ex rate, or why the baht is still high, but the news now for Thailand sure seems bad and from where I sit domestically there are so many poor people here will be struggling to actually survive. Many of the rest are severely over extended in debt. Business here is the worst I've seen it, shops closing daily. Apart from the Corona virus, there just doesn't look like much joy for Thailand, well not it's people anyway. It is just hard to understand if the country is really this cash / asset rich, where is the benefit to the people? As most things Thai an enigma. 

 

I was thinking this morning I remember when I first came here, maybe 2011, we were getting 30-33 baht for our Australian dollar, then when I moved here late 2014 about 27 baht to the dollar. Now lucky to get 20. But looking back I think the Australian dollar was near parity with the US back then, now AUS 66c / $1 US. SO maybe in Australia and England not so much the rising baht as the falling pound / AUS$. 

[saengd]

11 minutes ago, Kenny202 said:

I don't have a clue about the ex rate, or why the baht is still high, but the news now for Thailand sure seems bad and from where I sit domestically there are so many poor people here will be struggling to actually survive. Many of the rest are severely over extended in debt. Business here is the worst I've seen it, shops closing daily. Apart from the Corona virus, there just doesn't look like much joy for Thailand, well not it's people anyway. It is just hard to understand if the country is really this cash / asset rich, where is the benefit to the people? As most things Thai an enigma. 

 

I was thinking this morning I remember when I first came here, maybe 2011, we were getting 30-33 baht for our Australian dollar, then when I moved here late 2014 about 27 baht to the dollar. Now lucky to get 20. But looking back I think the Australian dollar was near parity with the US back then, now AUS 66c / $1 US. SO maybe in Australia and England not so much the rising baht as the falling pound / AUS$. 

Most people would agree with you that the impact of these things on the poor is far from good. But the rural poor are not the people who make or break the economy, as hard and as unpleasant as this may sound, you have to set them aside from the rest of the equation otherwise emotion distorts the picture. Thirty years ago there was only a very small middle class in Thailand, the majority of people were rural poor, all the wealth was in the hands of the top 0.001%.

 

Since then the middle class has grown hugely, some put the number as high as 45 million (population 69 million), this is the group that is buying cars, taking out mortgages, spending on credit cards and who are in debt to 79% of GDP (a fairly average number for consumer debt). So over those thirty years some of the wealth has trickled down and large numbers of people have been lifted out of abject rural poverty and are now potentially contributing to GDP. None of that would have been able to happen if Thailand hadn't become asset and cash rich in the form of FCR, exports, tourism etc., that's the benefit to the people of those assets.

 

 

[Chivas]

3 hours ago, stament said:

So where do you see the baht going over the next few months? 33/34?

I'm expecting 33 by end of March.....perfect storm is brewing

 

[saengd]

13 minutes ago, Chivas said:

I'm expecting 33 by end of March.....perfect storm is brewing

 

And by end June? Just for fun, not too serious.

Edited February 26, 2020 by saengd

[Kenny202]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Most people would agree with you that the impact of these things on the poor is far from good. But the rural poor are not the people who make or break the economy, as hard and as unpleasant as this may sound, you have to set them aside from the rest of the equation otherwise emotion distorts the picture. Thirty years ago there was only a very small middle class in Thailand, the majority of people were rural poor, all the wealth was in the hands of the top 0.001%.

 

Since then the middle class has grown hugely, some put the number as high as 45 million (population 69 million), this is the group that is buying cars, taking out mortgages, spending on credit cards and who are in debt to 79% of GDP (a fairly average number for consumer debt). So over those thirty years some of the wealth has trickled down and large numbers of people have been lifted out of abject rural poverty and are now potentially contributing to GDP. None of that would have been able to happen if Thailand hadn't become asset and cash rich in the form of FCR, exports, tourism etc., that's the benefit to the people of those assets.

 

 

I really don't know if your figures are right, I have no figures to dispute it. But are you saying 60-70% of the population middle class?

 

Was only reading a couple of weeks ago the vast majority rural poor, in fact the story was based around how the drought etc was effecting agriculture and even though your average Thai farmer has little disposable income, because there are so many of them it does have a major impact on Thailand GDP. Just from living in rural Thailand and what I see with my own eyes I would strongly disagree 45 million people could be said to be middle class. The only people I see here I could call middle class are government workers / teachers / offspring of wealthy families. And they are all in serious debt. I live in a major Isaan Thai city, on the surface wealthy prosperous busy city and there is not one business here, apart from multi nationals that I would be envious of owning. Everyone is struggling. Bigger shops here not only suffering from all the other downturns in trade but simply can not compete with online sellers, many from outside Thailand. 

[saengd]

9 minutes ago, Kenny202 said:

I really don't know if your figures are right, I have no figures to dispute it. But are you saying 60-70% of the population middle class?

 

Was only reading a couple of weeks ago the vast majority rural poor, in fact the story was based around how the drought etc was effecting agriculture and even though your average Thai farmer has little disposable income, because there are so many of them it does have a major impact on Thailand GDP. Just from living in rural Thailand and what I see with my own eyes I would strongly disagree 45 million people could be said to be middle class. The only people I see here I could call middle class are government workers / teachers / offspring of wealthy families. And they are all in serious debt. I live in a major Isaan Thai city, on the surface wealthy prosperous busy city and there is not one business here, apart from multi nationals that I would be envious of owning. Everyone is struggling. Bigger shops here not only suffering from all the other downturns in trade but simply can not compete with online sellers, many from outside Thailand. 

The numbers vary based on who you read and want to believe, I don't know for certain.

 

"Thailand, with a middle class of 49 million" https://www.startupthailand.org/en/facebook-unveils-4-key-trends-identified-for-southeast-asias-emerging-middle-classes/

 

"17 million Thai's are upper middle class". http://aboutthailandliving.com/2018/09/19/the-rise-of-the-rich-thai/

 

There's lots of data out there but it takes time to read and assess. The last number I recall seeing a couple of years ago that I had confidence in suggested that 40% of the population  was in the middle class...dunno today but I'll see if I can't find out.

 

 

[Henryford]

1 hour ago, Kenny202 said:

I really don't know if your figures are right, I have no figures to dispute it. But are you saying 60-70% of the population middle class?

 

Was only reading a couple of weeks ago the vast majority rural poor, in fact the story was based around how the drought etc was effecting agriculture and even though your average Thai farmer has little disposable income, because there are so many of them it does have a major impact on Thailand GDP. Just from living in rural Thailand and what I see with my own eyes I would strongly disagree 45 million people could be said to be middle class. The only people I see here I could call middle class are government workers / teachers / offspring of wealthy families. And they are all in serious debt. I live in a major Isaan Thai city, on the surface wealthy prosperous busy city and there is not one business here, apart from multi nationals that I would be envious of owning. Everyone is struggling. Bigger shops here not only suffering from all the other downturns in trade but simply can not compete with online sellers, many from outside Thailand. 

Almost every thing i buy of any size is from places like Lazada. The service in any Thai shop is so poor i don't even bother.

[Kenny202]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

The numbers vary based on who you read and want to believe, I don't know for certain.

 

"Thailand, with a middle class of 49 million" https://www.startupthailand.org/en/facebook-unveils-4-key-trends-identified-for-southeast-asias-emerging-middle-classes/

 

"17 million Thai's are upper middle class". http://aboutthailandliving.com/2018/09/19/the-rise-of-the-rich-thai/

 

There's lots of data out there but it takes time to read and assess. The last number I recall seeing a couple of years ago that I had confidence in suggested that 40% of the population  was in the middle class...dunno today but I'll see if I can't find out.

 

 

I just can't believe anything even close to those figures unless middle class is anyone with an income exceeding 10k THB a month. I would have thought middle class Thailand would start with government workers, middle to upper management, teachers etc with an income in excess of 30k THB a month. Even that probably pushing it. To live here and have a home, decent car, decent lifestyle, good school minimum 40k THB, even for a Thai. I would be very surprised if middle class here would exceed 15% of the population. 20% at a stretch. And these so called middle class Thais have a house, and a new car etc....but none of it is theirs. It's all on the never never. It seems like the same banana republic scenario / house of cards we had back in 80's Australia in the recession we had to have.

 

Other thing I don't understand, although I don't doubt you, is if Thailand success is from balance of trade ie exports.....and the government coffers are overflowing, surely the majority of exports are done by individual companies, not the government? Why would all of this wealth be in the Bank of Thailand and not in the accounts of the companies / individuals? Probably a very naive and stupid question. I just don't get it.

 

If Thailand is truly wealthy as a country, clearly it's the 95 / 5 rule. 5% of the population have 95% of the wealth. The other 95% of the population were born with nothing and still have most of it left.  

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Kenny202 said:

I just can't believe anything even close to those figures unless middle class is anyone with an income exceeding 10k THB a month. I would have thought middle class Thailand would start with government workers, middle to upper management, teachers etc with an income in excess of 30k THB a month. Even that probably pushing it. To live here and have a home, decent car, decent lifestyle, good school minimum 40k THB, even for a Thai. I would be very surprised if middle class here would exceed 15% of the population. 20% at a stretch. And these so called middle class Thais have a house, and a new car etc....but none of it is theirs. It's all on the never never. It seems like the same banana republic scenario / house of cards we had back in 80's Australia in the recession we had to have.

 

Other thing I don't understand, although I don't doubt you, is if Thailand success is from balance of trade ie exports.....and the government coffers are overflowing, surely the majority of exports are done by individual companies, not the government? Why would all of this wealth be in the Bank of Thailand and not in the accounts of the companies / individuals? Probably a very naive and stupid question. I just don't get it.

 

If Thailand is truly wealthy as a country, clearly it's the 95 / 5 rule. 5% of the population have 95% of the wealth. The other 95% of the population were born with nothing and still have most of it left.  

Individual Wealth vs Government: Exporter sells product overseas, gets paid in USD, sells USD to BOT, receives THB in exchange, BOT accumulates foreign currency in the foreign currency reserves, exporter gets more wealthy because of his sales.

 

Middle Class: See page 3 for a table of income by class: https://wid.world/document/extreme-inequality-democratisation-and-class-struggles-in-thailand-wid-world-issue-brief-2019-1/

 

Note: IMF and World Bank define middle class based on income but I can't find those numbers, yet, the above seems right to me.

 

The 95/5 rule is actually more like 99/1 in Thailand, it's heavily distorted.

 

 

 

 

[saengd]

This is what I was looking for, The World Bank definition of income classes (in USD):

 

Threshold	July 2019/$ (new)	July 2018/$ (old)
Low income
Lower-middle income	1,026 - 3,995	996 - 3,895
Upper-middle income	3,996 - 12,375	3,896 - 12,055
High income	> 12,375	> 12,055

 

Note 300 baht a day = USD 3,600 per year.

 

https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-country-classifications-income-level-2019-2020

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by saengd

[Chivas]

3 hours ago, saengd said:

And by end June? Just for fun, not too serious.

If Corona continues and theres little doubt it will I wouldn't rule out 35 by the end of June

Now if Boris and coherts can actually progess trade talks in a satisfactory manner I can see Sterling at $1.35 by the middle of the year

 

That would put Sterling/Baht at 47.25 interbank

Edited February 26, 2020 by Chivas

[Kenny202]

11 minutes ago, saengd said:

This is what I was looking for, The World Bank definition of income classes (in USD):

 

Threshold	July 2019/$ (new)	July 2018/$ (old)
Low income
Lower-middle income	1,026 - 3,995	996 - 3,895
Upper-middle income	3,996 - 12,375	3,896 - 12,055
High income	> 12,375	> 12,055

 

Note 300 baht a day = USD 3,600 per year.

 

https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-country-classifications-income-level-2019-2020

 

If you do the math for someone earning 300 a day its more like 3400 baht a year, and thats only if they work 7 days a week, which most dont. And 300 baht a day the minimum wage for company office workers, multinational staff etc. The reallity for many farm and construction workers 200-250 per day

[saengd]

5 minutes ago, Chivas said:

If Corona continues and theres little doubt it will I wouldn't rule out 35 by the end of June

Now if Boris and coherts can actually progess trade talks in a satisfactory manner I can see Sterling at $1.35 by the middle of the year

 

That would put Sterling/Baht at 47.25 interbank

I'd want to treat anything on Brexit as a bonus and not try to factor it in, it's too uncertain. So that suggests maybe 34 by mid year, seems reasonable.

[saengd]

8 minutes ago, Kenny202 said:

If you do the math for someone earning 300 a day its more like 3400 baht a year, and thats only if they work 7 days a week, which most dont. And 300 baht a day the minimum wage for company office workers, multinational staff etc. The reallity for many farm and construction workers 200-250 per day

You mean 3,400 Dollars I guess. I took 300 x 30 just for round numbers.

 

Average wage is circa 15,000 baht/month which is USD 6,000/year, that puts the average wage right in the middle of the World Bank Upper/Middle income group - the USD 3,400/3,600 per year income is in the lower middle group.

 

The poverty rate is classed as less than USD 5 per day, it is said there is less than 5% of the population that category.

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/THA/thailand/poverty-rate

 

 

[stament]

40 minutes ago, saengd said:

You mean 3,400 Dollars I guess. I took 300 x 30 just for round numbers.

 

Average wage is circa 15,000 baht/month which is USD 6,000/year, that puts the average wage right in the middle of the World Bank Upper/Middle income group - the USD 3,400/3,600 per year income is in the lower middle group.

 

The poverty rate is classed as less than USD 5 per day, it is said there is less than 5% of the population that category.

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/THA/thailand/poverty-rate

 

 

Surely the 6000USD p.a. is relative to TH as you wouldn't be classed as Middle class in the UK if you had that salary.

 

Even so I wouldn't call USD6000 pa in TH as middle class sounds way to low. Would expect minimum THB25k+ to be minimum per month which is 300k THB per year just under 10k USD.

 

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by stament

[Kenny202]

43 minutes ago, saengd said:

You mean 3,400 Dollars I guess. I took 300 x 30 just for round numbers.

 

Average wage is circa 15,000 baht/month which is USD 6,000/year, that puts the average wage right in the middle of the World Bank Upper/Middle income group - the USD 3,400/3,600 per year income is in the lower middle group.

 

The poverty rate is classed as less than USD 5 per day, it is said there is less than 5% of the population that category.

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/THA/thailand/poverty-rate

 

 

Your ordinary everyday Thai you see on the street is on under 10k THB a month for a 6 day week. Usually up to 12 hours a day. I am sure if you average it out amongst the others maybe 15000 baht, when you say average you mean the average of all the populations income? 

[Kenny202]

So what do you see happening when this huge majority middle income earners start deciding they want western goods, better quality imported items. As the Thailand agricultural, manufacturing and export sector becomes more uncompetitive and low tech (and it is already in decline) and the consumption of foreign goods goes up, this is going to skew the balance of trade for sure? and I assume this is what happened in Australia when it used to be a huge exporter of commodities, minerals, agriculture.

 

And what about China? I mean you only need to look around you in Thailand and there is a huge amount of product here imported from China.  

[Airalee]

The one quote, while getting my BS in Economics, that stuck with me the most was...

 

”Ask 10 economists the same question and you’ll get 11 different answers”

[bkk6060]

Just saw 31.84 on 2nd road Pattaya.  It is slowly improving.

[saengd]

3 hours ago, Kenny202 said:

So what do you see happening when this huge majority middle income earners start deciding they want western goods, better quality imported items. As the Thailand agricultural, manufacturing and export sector becomes more uncompetitive and low tech (and it is already in decline) and the consumption of foreign goods goes up, this is going to skew the balance of trade for sure? and I assume this is what happened in Australia when it used to be a huge exporter of commodities, minerals, agriculture.

 

And what about China? I mean you only need to look around you in Thailand and there is a huge amount of product here imported from China.  

As long as government keeps import taxes high and continues to protect local business that will not happen, the take up rate on foreign goods has already been painful slowly because of this. Government protects markets and only favored nations and suppliers are allowed to import and market their goods. I'm not sure there is such a huge demand for foreign goods by the majority of Thai's although I think everyone laments the lack of quality in many products, particularly Thai products. The transition from all Thai products to a fair mix of international products will take at least a decade or more. 

[saengd]

3 hours ago, Kenny202 said:

Your ordinary everyday Thai you see on the street is on under 10k THB a month for a 6 day week. Usually up to 12 hours a day. I am sure if you average it out amongst the others maybe 15000 baht, when you say average you mean the average of all the populations income? 

Yes, average income in Thailand is around 15,000 baht a month, that's the average across the entire workforce. But income varies by location, Bangkok and the South is higher at around 22,000 whilst the NE is the lowest at around 8,000, there's huge disparity across the country.

[saengd]

2 hours ago, Airalee said:

The one quote, while getting my BS in Economics, that stuck with me the most was...

 

”Ask 10 economists the same question and you’ll get 11 different answers”

This is true of course but only when crystal ball gazing and looking to the future, looking to the past there is only ever one answer.

[Airalee]

20 minutes ago, saengd said:

This is true of course but only when crystal ball gazing and looking to the future, looking to the past there is only ever one answer.

Gotta disagree with you there.  Economists argue just as much as to why something happened as they do to if something will happen.   But if you feel like writing pages upon pages of responses when someone disagrees with you, well...ok.  

[saengd]

19 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Gotta disagree with you there.  Economists argue just as much as to why something happened as they do to if something will happen.   But if you feel like writing pages upon pages of responses when someone disagrees with you, well...ok.  

Take the Asian crisis in Thailand in '97 for example: some theorists have it that Soros cornered the market and forced capitulation, others say it was caused by excessive lending, some even suggest it was because the elite blah blah blah. Enough research has been done and enough written by now to where most people with even a semi-serious interest in the subject understand exactly what happened. It's that sort of thing that I refer to when I say there is only one answer when looking at an economics problem historically.

[saengd]

The big problem is knowing what to believe, what's fact and how much is spin. I have no problem with spin because that's part of TAT's job but in a situation such as now it can be seriously confusing. 

 

Take the case of tourist numbers, today's report is this:

 

Then separately we had news from a non-TAT source about exports which said:

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/thai-exports-figures-rise-in-january

 

So tourist numbers up, exports up and the Baht is falling, is anyone else confused!

 

[Kenny202]

29 minutes ago, saengd said:

The big problem is knowing what to believe, what's fact and how much is spin. I have no problem with spin because that's part of TAT's job but in a situation such as now it can be seriously confusing. 

 

Take the case of tourist numbers, today's report is this:

 

Then separately we had news from a non-TAT source about exports which said:

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/thai-exports-figures-rise-in-january

 

So tourist numbers up, exports up and the Baht is falling, is anyone else confused!

 

I've seen that for a number of years now to the point you just can't believe anything you see on the internet or offical news. You can get media advices from 3 different departments in a day that all put their own portfolio in a golden light and the blame on others. Obviously minister trying to hang on to his job. Skew this figure and that figure favourably. Would be picked to pieces by the western media back home. You only have to compare whats coming out of the Health department and TAT at the moment which do not correlate with each other. One minute the Health guy is saying never mind Corona, its only a severe flu, week after admonishing people for not wearing masks when he's not wearing one himself lol, then talking about closing borders. Then Thailand have found a magic cure etc. The TAT is even more unbelievable and contradictory. As someone said, make it sweet and they'll eat it lol. Honestly my 3yo son tells better stories 5555