Is this a good time to buy a Condo?

[newnative]

17 minutes ago, Henryford said:

I agree about sea views. People seem to pay over the odds for them but basically it's just a thin strip of blue/green in the distance. Pretty boring. Sure it's nice to be close to the beach but you don't need the view.

     I 'need the view'--I'm in a beach town, after all.  And, apparently, all my buyers 'need the view', too--and are willing to pay for it.  Usually my seaviews are not '...a thin strip of blue/green in the distance.'  That could be boring.  I think I only bought one of those and it was a rental.  I love a close seaview that has the bay, the coast, and the islands.  But, that's just me--or, I guess, not just me.  

[BigStar]

3 hours ago, Henryford said:

I agree about sea views. People seem to pay over the odds for them but basically it's just a thin strip of blue/green in the distance. Pretty boring. Sure it's nice to be close to the beach but you don't need the view.

Costs a bit more but well worth it, not "over the odds" at all. Free market in sea views as well. No, it's much more than a thin strip of blue/green in the distance. Better see First Optic and get new glasses. No, it's not boring but always dramatic and nice. Why you prefer views of a soi and neighbors' homes, I dunno, but do enjoy those. ????

 

And finally you've mistaken need for want. 

[how241]

On 3/15/2020 at 5:34 PM, Leaver said:

Ok.  Give me your top 5 reasons. 

 

If there are more sellers than buyers, wouldn't that indicate a problem with the area, or the local economy? 

 

Basically, why do more people want out than people wanting in?

Reasons people want/need to sell ???   How long is a piece of string ??  Here are a few reasons:  health/visa/money problems, family issues back home, marriage/divorce, moving money into or out of stocks, gold, bitcoin, or wherever you choose to invest/gamble.  I'm sure I haven't told you anything new. I think anyone who has followed your posts already knows that you don't think it is a good time to buy in Thailand and maybe it is Never a good idea to buy here.  You are certainly entitled to your opinion and you might be right.  As with any investing/gambling it is all about timing/luck...I have done well with all the land and condos I have bought in the last 11 years here in Thailand.

[scubascuba3]

I imagine condo sales has totally stalled now, people are now more focused on survival

[how241]

10 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

I think a lot of it is their woman wanting it.

 

Owned a few like that.  Money pits constant work. Sold everything and came here with one large suitcase.

Yes, I also am so much happier in a 35 sq. mtr. box.  As I get older I want to accumulate less, not more.

A free feeling, and much much less stress and hassle. 

 

Agree...I came from a large 4 bedroom house in the USA and in the past 11 years I have been happy in VERY small condos.  I don't miss walking across the large areas just so the ex-wife could tell/show me something.  Also I tend to save too much junk when I have available space.  Lots of stuff is available very cheaply here so I don't miss having a garage full of junk. For me, smaller condo/house is better.

[Rimmer]

Off topic troll post removed

[scubascuba3]

The financial effect is worse than the health effect, massive job losses and bankruptcies, people haven't thought it through yet, companies are currently working out who to fire. Pensions drastically reduced, then there's the potential bank issue around the corner

[how241]

12 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

The financial effect is worse than the health effect, massive job losses and bankruptcies, people haven't thought it through yet, companies are currently working out who to fire. Pensions drastically reduced, then there's the potential bank issue around the corner

Your 100% right but I am guessing that in a few months, maybe longer,  the markets will be making new highs.  I could be wrong.

[scubascuba3]

1 minute ago, how241 said:

Your 100% right but I am guessing that in a few months, maybe longer,  the markets will be making new highs.  I could be wrong.

except many companies will fall by the wayside by then. Govts can't bail out all companies

[how241]

3 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

except many companies will fall by the wayside by then. Govts can't bail out all companies

100% correct !!!   The big boys will eat up the smaller firms for pennies on the dollar. The rich get richer !!!    Total manipulation, as always.

[Leaver]

47 minutes ago, how241 said:

Reasons people want/need to sell ???   How long is a piece of string ??  Here are a few reasons:  health/visa/money problems, family issues back home, marriage/divorce, moving money into or out of stocks, gold, bitcoin, or wherever you choose to invest/gamble.  I'm sure I haven't told you anything new. I think anyone who has followed your posts already knows that you don't think it is a good time to buy in Thailand and maybe it is Never a good idea to buy here.  You are certainly entitled to your opinion and you might be right.  As with any investing/gambling it is all about timing/luck...I have done well with all the land and condos I have bought in the last 11 years here in Thailand.

Virus aside, I do not think it's a great idea to buy here, either to live in, or as an investment. 

 

Of the reasons you mentioned, they could all happen to any expat, at anytime, and the last thing you want is money tied up in a property in here.  

 

Please define "done well."  I would like to weigh up the risk profile v reward. 

 

I also accept your right to your opinion, I just disagree with it, especially as rents are so cheap here. 

[how241]

14 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Please define "done well."  I would like to weigh up the risk profile v reward. 

 

I also accept your right to your opinion, I just disagree with it, especially as rents are so cheap here. 

I will let you to the math (ROI).  I bought condos for 450K  and have kept them 95% of the time rented, or more, at 4000-4500 baht monthly.  I have repaired or replaced VERY little during the past 11 years and most of my condos are almost exactly the way I bought them. I am a little handy so I can fix a few things myself. 8-10%  return. You won't do as well with condos that cost 1-2 million as it is Much harder to keep them rented at a decent price. 

[Leaver]

4 minutes ago, how241 said:

I will let you to the math (ROI).  I bought condos for 450K  and have kept them 95% of the time rented, or more, at 4000-4500 baht monthly.  I have repaired or replaced VERY little during the past 11 years and most of my condos are almost exactly the way I bought them. I am a little handy so I can fix a few things myself. 8-10%  return. You won't do as well with condos that cost 1-2 million as it is Much harder to keep them rented at a decent price. 

I'm getting around 6% on a diversified portfolio, and it's liquid.  Of course, that may take a hit due to the virus, but then again, so will property here.  All owned in my name, left in my will, minimal fees and taxes.  Difficult to liquidate property here, even at a fire sale.

 

You bought in 11 years ago.  Do you think you would get the same ROI now, as in, pre virus? 

 

Some of the reasons you mentioned in a previous post for selling also cross over to renting.  Eg. visas, money issues, health.  Do you thing tenants will be in abundance here, post virus?  Pattaya was losing a lot of foreign expats, pre virus. 

[how241]

29 minutes ago, Leaver said:

You bought in 11 years ago.  Do you think you would get the same ROI now, as in, pre virus? 

NO,  as I paid approx. 450K  and now they sell for 650-750K  so you ROI  would be around 5-6%.  Being that there really is nothing cheaper than Nirun to rent, usually it is not a problem finding renters. Lately I have been renting out to Thai's, so the ex-pat factor isn't so large.  Nothing wrong with getting a easy 6%  BUT  that 'stock party' may or may not be the same for a few years. Time will tell BUT people always need a place to live and I could drop my rents down to 3,500 monthly and still do quite well.  Don't get me wrong,  I have 'other' types of investments besides the condos. Never put all your eggs in one basket. Nothing wrong with stocks, gold, FX and crypto.   The whole 'condo-rental' thing has worked out nicely for me and I like the angle of giving my Thai lady something to do and let her make some income too.  I never have to give her any money. 

[Leaver]

13 hours ago, how241 said:

NO,  as I paid approx. 450K  and now they sell for 650-750K  so you ROI  would be around 5-6%.  Being that there really is nothing cheaper than Nirun to rent, usually it is not a problem finding renters. Lately I have been renting out to Thai's, so the ex-pat factor isn't so large.  Nothing wrong with getting a easy 6%  BUT  that 'stock party' may or may not be the same for a few years. Time will tell BUT people always need a place to live and I could drop my rents down to 3,500 monthly and still do quite well.  Don't get me wrong,  I have 'other' types of investments besides the condos. Never put all your eggs in one basket. Nothing wrong with stocks, gold, FX and crypto.   The whole 'condo-rental' thing has worked out nicely for me and I like the angle of giving my Thai lady something to do and let her make some income too.  I never have to give her any money. 

I also have property in my portfolio, but it's not in Thailand.

 

We are talking about Thailand property.  The first word in your post was, "NO."  So, are you now saying now is NOT a good time to buy a condo, or now IS a good time to buy a condo?  

 

In any case, I would suggest one should factor in the loss of the 650 - 750k outlay into their projections, because they will not be able to sell it in the future. 

 

Also, I think you will see owners in a race to the bottom for rents here, like bars are with their beer prices, as tenants, like bar customers, dry up, and not just due to the virus.  Thailand was falling out of favor with westerners pre virus.

 

Even Thai tenants will be in short supply as employment dries up in and around Pattaya, and that also includes bar girls.

 

Yet, they still keep building more condo's, cutting that buyer and tenant pie into even thinner slices. 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Leaver

[1FinickyOne]

On 2/25/2020 at 10:03 AM, ivor bigun said:

he has a "bigun" to.

two too to

[how241]

20 hours ago, how241 said:

You bought in 11 years ago.  Do you think you would get the same ROI now, as in, pre virus? 

I tried to answer your question.  As long as I keep them rented I will get the same ROI....If someone buys now,  at a much higher price,  then his ROI will be lower as his cost to income ratio is different.  The prices have gone up BUT the rents have gone up less.  Too much supply.  I don't agree will all your doom-and-gloom.  Many of the negative things you post will also apply to most everywhere in the world due to this virus.  Nothing is safe or exempt  BUT I feel comfortable knowing that people will always need a place to live and the LOWER priced condos should still be able to be rented out. Even renting my condos at 3,500 should net me 8%.   3500 X 12 =42,000....450K(cost)  X 9%= 40,500....So allowing for some repairs should still get me 8%....With the banks at 0-1%,  that looks OK to me.  I could rent out at 3,000 monthly and still do very nicely (7.6%)....I am NOT trying to change your opinion as I know how you feel.  Remember that Thailand is not like UK/USA  with all the property taxes, required insurance, crazy high repair costs.

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, how241 said:

I tried to answer your question.  As long as I keep them rented I will get the same ROI....If someone buys now,  at a much higher price,  then his ROI will be lower as his cost to income ratio is different.  The prices have gone up BUT the rents have gone up less.  Too much supply.  I don't agree will all your doom-and-gloom.  Many of the negative things you post will also apply to most everywhere in the world due to this virus.  Nothing is safe or exempt  BUT I feel comfortable knowing that people will always need a place to live and the LOWER priced condos should still be able to be rented out. Even renting my condos at 3,500 should net me 8%.   3500 X 12 =42,000....450K(cost)  X 9%= 40,500....So allowing for some repairs should still get me 8%....With the banks at 0-1%,  that looks OK to me.  I could rent out at 3,000 monthly and still do very nicely (7.6%)....I am NOT trying to change your opinion as I know how you feel.  Remember that Thailand is not like UK/USA  with all the property taxes, required insurance, crazy high repair costs.

You keep posting about your personl circumstance, which started 11 years ago.  This thread was started on the 24th February 2020. 

 

I have always clarified "pre virus" or "post virus."  Like I said, Pattaya has fallen out of favor with westerners pre virus.  Renting to Thai's is fine, if they have employment here.  

 

Simple question.  Would you attempt to do what you did 11 years ago, in 2020? I'm guessing not.   

[how241]

22 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Simple question.  Would you attempt to do what you did 11 years ago, in 2020? I'm guessing not.

No, I would not be buying condos to rent out today  IF  I was just starting out in Thailand today.  I think when to virus hysteria calms down Pattay will rebound along with most everything else. I still think a person who was interesting in buying anyway, even before this virus stuff started,  can still get himself a very good buy if he is patient and goes around shooting 'low-ball' offers.  Some desperate seller will take him up on his low offer and possible that same seller will regret doing that later.  Everything is all about timing (luck)...I already know you don't agree with what I have posted. 

[Leaver]

11 minutes ago, how241 said:

No, I would not be buying condos to rent out today  IF  I was just starting out in Thailand today.  I think when to virus hysteria calms down Pattay will rebound along with most everything else. I still think a person who was interesting in buying anyway, even before this virus stuff started,  can still get himself a very good buy if he is patient and goes around shooting 'low-ball' offers.  Some desperate seller will take him up on his low offer and possible that same seller will regret doing that later.  Everything is all about timing (luck)...I already know you don't agree with what I have posted. 

You are contradicting yourself.

 

No, you wouldn't buy today, but someone can get themselves a good deal.

 

Did it occur to you that Pattaya may not be the preferred destination it once was, regardless of the virus, hence many sellers, and very few buyers, making sellers desperate to take just about any offer? 

 

It's the same with rentals as well.

 

The Pattaya property party is over. 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Leaver

[how241]

6 minutes ago, Leaver said:

You are contradicting yourself.

 

No, you wouldn't buy today, but someone can get themselves a good deal.

 

Did it occur to you that Pattaya may not be the preferred destination it once was, regardless of the virus, hence many sellers, and very few buyers, making sellers desperate to take just about any offer? 

 

It's the same with rentals as well.

 

The Pattaya property party is over. 

 

No, I am not contradicting myself.  Your all gloom-n-doom about Pattaya.  I have lived here VERY happily for 11 years and have not seen things go from good to bad.  Sure things change, as is the nature of life  but it is still good for me here as it is for many others.  My statement of it being a buyers market and possibly a good time to buy is for people that want to live here and not just going into the rental business. As for  myself,  I already own several properties so that is why I am not currently in the market for more.  I have been doing well in the crypto market lately and that is where I would invest free cash right now. Do you currently  live in Pattaya ??  Thailand ?? This makes a BIG difference.

[Leaver]

12 minutes ago, how241 said:

No, I am not contradicting myself.  Your all gloom-n-doom about Pattaya.  I have lived here VERY happily for 11 years and have not seen things go from good to bad.  Sure things change, as is the nature of life  but it is still good for me here as it is for many others.  My statement of it being a buyers market and possibly a good time to buy is for people that want to live here and not just going into the rental business. As for  myself,  I already own several properties so that is why I am not currently in the market for more.  I have been doing well in the crypto market lately and that is where I would invest free cash right now. Do you currently  live in Pattaya ??  Thailand ?? This makes a BIG difference.

You keep talking about yourself and your own circumstances from 11 years ago.

 

We are discussing the Pattaya property market in 2020.  The thread was started last month.  Focus on the NOW, not 11 years ago, and your success starting from 11 years ago.  Those days are gone.

 

I live in Pattaya and have seen the tourist demographic change here, dramatically.  I've seen the cost of living rise here, rapidly.  I have seen currencies weaken against the baht, significantly.  I have seen a huge increase in traffic, and infrastructure buckling under the mass package holiday tourism model. 

 

I agree with you, if you want to live here, it's a buyers market.  Perhaps that's because sellers no longer want to live here, and when buyers discover that, they most likely will pull out of the market.

 

Nothing's moving here, and that's pre virus.

 

Pattaya doesn't have the retirement destination attraction that it once had.  There are, and will continue to be, many unoccupied, and unable to be sold, condo's here.  

[bkk6060]

14 minutes ago, how241 said:

I have been doing well in the crypto market lately and that is where I would invest free cash right now.

Wow, lately really?

It is down over 50% in the past month and over 60% in the past 8 months.

 

[Leaver]

4 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Wow, lately really?

It is down over 50% in the past month and over 60% in the past 8 months.

 

Which one?  There are hundreds now.

[moskito]

buy my land and house instead in Phuket NaiHarn area, no direct neighbors, green area, 1 house 3 bungalows for making business, i have enough of this country,
make me an offer, bit more than half rai, about 900m² green garden area,
I throw everything in even 2 cars and 3 motorcycles

 

[newnative]

34 minutes ago, how241 said:

No, I am not contradicting myself.  Your all gloom-n-doom about Pattaya.  I have lived here VERY happily for 11 years and have not seen things go from good to bad.  Sure things change, as is the nature of life  but it is still good for me here as it is for many others.  My statement of it being a buyers market and possibly a good time to buy is for people that want to live here and not just going into the rental business. As for  myself,  I already own several properties so that is why I am not currently in the market for more.  I have been doing well in the crypto market lately and that is where I would invest free cash right now. Do you currently  live in Pattaya ??  Thailand ?? This makes a BIG difference.

   I agree.  Pattaya is 'still good for me', too.  The virus is making things hard everywhere, not just in Thailand and not just in Pattaya.  The things that attracted my partner and me to Pattaya will still be there when the virus passes.   As far as riding out the virus, I'd rather be in Pattaya at my nice condo with a beautiful view, enjoying the good weather, swimming every day, with a good gym, snooker, ping pong, and library on-site, than some other places I lived at in America. 

[Leaver]

13 minutes ago, moskito said:

buy my land and house instead in Phuket NaiHarn area, no direct neighbors, green area, 1 house 3 bungalows for making business, i have enough of this country,
make me an offer, bit more than half rai, about 900m² green garden area,
I throw everything in even 2 cars and 3 motorcycles

 

How long has it been on the market for?

[how241]

17 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Wow, lately really?

It is down over 50% in the past month and over 60% in the past 8 months.

 

Maybe you don't know this BUT  you can SHORT crypto  and make a LOT when it goes down .  It's a 2-way tade, same as stock + gold. 

[Leaver]

25 minutes ago, how241 said:

Maybe you don't know this BUT  you can SHORT crypto  and make a LOT when it goes down .  It's a 2-way tade, same as stock + gold. 

I have said on more than one occasion, if Pattaya was listed on the stock exchange, I would short it big time.   ????

[how241]

6 hours ago, Leaver said:

I live in Pattaya and have seen the tourist demographic change here, dramatically.  I've seen the cost of living rise here, rapidly.  I have seen currencies weaken against the baht, significantly.  I have seen a huge increase in traffic, and infrastructure buckling under the mass package holiday tourism model. 

From all of your many posts, Pattaya really sounds bad and getting worse everyday.  So why do you continue to live here ???

32.650 +0.510  ...

USD/THB - US Dollar Thai Baht

Not so bad right now.