Thailand reports four new coronavirus cases - including Italian tourist - total 47

[SkyFax]

49 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That'd be ~27k in hospitals. 

Well now that the caseload in Wuhan has dropped and the makeshift hospital beds no longer necessary, if Thailand needs 27k beds maybe China can ship them here:

[ThailandRyan]

9 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

Well now that the caseload in Wuhan has dropped and the makeshift hospital beds no longer necessary, if Thailand needs 27k beds maybe China can ship them here:

Buriam may need them.  Saw a Facebook post today showing many in quarantine, but having to stay in tents, inside a wharehouse.

 

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[DrTuner]

15 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Buriam may need them.  Saw a Facebook post today showing many in quarantine, but having to stay in tents, inside a wharehouse.

Ugh. Imagine flying in from a country that is not on the high risk list, but being put there while you fly and you'll end up in such a tent center for two weeks, especially the dry coughing in the background must be really comforting. Truly exotic holiday, five stars in tripadvisor.

Edited March 10, 2020 by DrTuner

[ThailandRyan]

As you can see, the public is not being told the extent of things...I do feel sorry for what the fallout will bring to the regular citizen, once it is all out there.

[SkyFax]

I believe the Buriram site is for undocumented Thai returnees from Korea.

 

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/03/10/officials-to-investigate-complaints-of-quarantine-conditions/

[ThailandRyan]

That tells the true story.  Thank you for posting that Link SkyFax.  I posted the link i had from the Facebook post I saw earlier today before I had a chance to update anyone with my view.  As you say Dr. Turner, Truly exotic holiday, five stars in tripadvisor, just needs to be added, and the google photos documented to show the arriving visitors.... 

[rabas]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Yeah, the results are .. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no65-080363.pdf

 

4518 PUI, 1789 in hospitals. Not there yet, but the 250-bed Bamrasnaradu is likely full. The trend is still there, 152 PUI were added on 8th of March. The count for people in hospitals Feb 14 was 117, so it's gone 15-fold in those three weeks.

I will now use a magic Thai wand to calculate (predict) the number of nCoV2019 test results still pending as of March 8, released March 9 (latest English language report).  Ahem.

 

 1789   -- current total PUI in hospitals under treatment

+  54   -- current PUI still at home under observation

-  16   -- current PUI in hospitals confirmed positive (not pending)

 1827      (predicted)

 

 1827    March 8 actual reported test results still pending. 

 

In other words, of the nearly 2000 patients under treatment, none have test results available yet? Yet in the future we will be told almost all of them tested negative when they leave? All 2675 released PUI were confirmed negative except the 33 released positives.  

I do not know what or how they are reporting but I  find the numbers very odd. 1827 cannot be a back log with rapid PCR testing which they say they have.

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no65-080363.pdf

Edited March 10, 2020 by rabas

[DrTuner]

51 minutes ago, rabas said:

In other words, of the nearly 2000 patients under treatment, none have test results available yet? Yet in the future we will be told almost all of them tested negative when they leave?

Maybe they are hoping the patients recover by themselves before they have to confirm anything. Just stall the testing for a couple of weeks or leave it hanging as unverified. Many ways to skin a cat.

 

BTW since you discovered the magic formula, it should be possible to get the pending numbers for the days they were not published and do a graph of the backlog.

Edited March 10, 2020 by DrTuner

[bkkcanuck8]

A statistical outlier right now -- Italy (using bad math: current deceased / current cases) has a rather high mortality rate of 6.2% (631 deceased).

[DrTuner]

21 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

A statistical outlier right now -- Italy (using bad math: current deceased / current cases) has a rather high mortality rate of 6.2% (631 deceased).

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-deaths-from-coronavirus-are-so-high-in-italy/

Quote

Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. 

 

Goes a long way to explaining it.

[bkkcanuck8]

9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-deaths-from-coronavirus-are-so-high-in-italy/

 

Goes a long way to explaining it.

I am wondering if there is also a large number of people with hypertension (one of the high risk factors in mortality as well as age).

 

Dam, I totally forgot about Scientific America - I should start reading it again and see if it is still as good as it use to be.

Edited March 11, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

I am wondering if there is also a large number of people with hypertension (one of the high risk factors in mortality as well as age).

Not sure, but Italians used to smoke like chimneys not so long ago, another risk factor.

[Kinnock]

On 3/5/2020 at 1:11 PM, neeray said:

Iran, Italy, China. Go figure. No surprise here. 

Yep, no surprise there.  They all begin with 'I', well, except China, and they are all Islamic, except for Italy and most of China, and they're all warm, except in winter, and they all eat pizza, so they deserve what they get.

[bkkcanuck8]

1 minute ago, Kinnock said:

Yep, no surprise there.  They all begin with 'I', well, except China, and they are all Islamic, except for Italy and most of China, and they're all warm, except in winter, and they all eat pizza, so they deserve what they get.

Just wait until United States gets in that list then you will have more - go figures ????  US response has been utterly pathetic and many people that should be tested have not (models indicate as of March 1 there may be between 1,000+ and 9,000 - so now (doubling time of 6.4ish) it would be 2,500+ to 23,000)