metisdead Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 A nonsensical post has been reported and removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I'm trying to imagine where the Thai economy might be in say six months (ish) from now, given progress with the virus et al: The number of new and suspected flu cases in China appears to be dropping, only Hubei is reporting new cases. It is also reported that pollution levels are now increasing once again as production at Chinese factories kicks in once again, it's taken four months to get to this point. https://fortune.com/2020/03/03/rising-pollution-china-factories-coronavirus-outbreak/ The number of cases in Europe is increasing sharply, if the numbers follow China it'll be three months before they stabilize, maybe. But Europe's probably doesn't have the same ability or will to lock down the entire continent the same way that China does so it may take longer. Also, Europe sees more business and social travelers from other countries which could prolong matters. If Europe follows the China model it could be at least four more months before things normalize. The numbers of new cases in Thailand and SE Asia/Asia seems to be increasing very slightly whilst restrict measures seem to be increasing, maybe too little too late, maybe not. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports If the situation out of China is as reported you can imagine that Thai tourism may begin to increase inside six months, as long as the number of cases in Thailand don't increase sharply and travel restrictions are lifted. Increased tourism is made even more likely if hotel/airline prices are lowered which I suspect they will be. Supply chains should also begin to function once again which will benefit Thai exports. China is the biggest single export market with the US and Japan following behind, some 30 other smaller countries make up the remaining 55%. https://oec.world/en/profile/country/tha/. Reduced global demand is likely to be an issue since many countries will go into recession this year, it's difficult to imagine the impact of this, Thailand may well see two successive quarters of negative growth. TAT forecasts 30 million tourists in 2020, a 25% drop from last year, February numbers were down 44% but that's just one month, the numbers may drop further before beginning to stabilize. I'm guessing it will be a tough six months for the tourist industry but numbers should start to climb again by 3Q20. As far as I can see nobody is forecasting a massive decline in Thai exports this year but it may be too early to sensibly estimate the numbers given all the variables and unknowns. Until two days ago best estimates I could find for export growth were 2%, the worst case I could find was -3%, only a few TV Forum members are suggesting Armageddon....I wouldn't bet on it. If anyone else has a sensible view on these things it will be good to hear them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post legend49 Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 Aliens to Thailand have been treated with disdain and contempt for too long. The virus is relief valve that has shaken up the money grabbing enterprises here severely. Will they learn a lesson from it, I doubt it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artisi Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, legend49 said: Aliens to Thailand have been treated with disdain and contempt for too long. The virus is relief valve that has shaken up the money grabbing enterprises here severely. Will they learn a lesson from it, I doubt it. Typical Thai accounting 101 is to increase prices during tough times or turn-down in business, so don't look for any easing of prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmicbkktxl Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 15 hours ago, Chivas said: Probably 99% here are not afraid of the virus but 99% are rightly concerned about getting caught up in the subsequent disruption. Nobody with any sense is booking right now for travel over the next 3 months Exactly, I have a few friends left around the world and most of them are frequent visitors of Thailand.50% cancelled their April and May Thailand trips,the other half is waiting with a booking.I think only idiots would book a Thai vacation at this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, legend49 said: Aliens to Thailand have been treated with disdain and contempt for too long. The virus is relief valve that has shaken up the money grabbing enterprises here severely. Will they learn a lesson from it, I doubt it. It's totally illogical to think the effects of the virus will change attitudes towards aliens or the economy as long as Thailand remains a good value destination for Chinese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sahibji Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 that is a heavy downfall considering thailand's dominant dependence on tourism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Borzandy Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 It's really a shame to miss tourists like the ones in the photo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sahibji Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 16 hours ago, Just1Voice said: You know it is just killing TAT to have to admit that. lol you cannot run away from the facts forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tifino Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Borzandy said: It's really a shame to miss tourists like the ones in the photo yes, in the OP, they don't appear behaving very respectful! - bare knees everywhere ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sahibji Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 i hope the 14 odd % that still did visit thailand were monitored closely in view of the COVID-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, sahibji said: that is a heavy downfall considering thailand's dominant dependence on tourism. Tourism is not dominant dependence, exports is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sahibji Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, soalbundy said: apparently in Bangkok it's so bad that muggers are accepting IOU's mugging will deter other potential tourists who might be thinking of visiting thailand. are they bent on killing the goose ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post kwak250 Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 In the worst-case scenario, the number of foreign tourists may fall to 30 million this year from last year's 39.8 million, If thats the worst-case scenario then it is much better than i expected . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, kwak250 said: In the worst-case scenario, the number of foreign tourists may fall to 30 million this year from last year's 39.8 million, If thats the worst-case scenario then it is much better than i expected . A drop to 30 mill. may actually benefit the industry by forcing some of the late comers and poorly run aspects of the industry to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soalbundy Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I bet the Italian tourist arrivals are worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snackbar Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 TIT The Central Bank are busy, Thai style, monitoring oil prices, which fell by 30% yesterday. 99.99% of office staff are very busy, monitoring social media, Thai dramas’ and slap stick game shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmitch Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Why bother to speculate on tourist numbers for 2020. In reality, nobody has a clue! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sahibji Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, mrmicbkktxl said: Exactly, I have a few friends left around the world and most of them are frequent visitors of Thailand.50% cancelled their April and May Thailand trips,the other half is waiting with a booking.I think only idiots would book a Thai vacation at this time sure it is the possibility of being quarantined for 14 days that would cause serious disruptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sahibji Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, soalbundy said: I bet the Italian tourist arrivals are worse. they do not come in big numbers to thailand relatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, madmitch said: Why bother to speculate on tourist numbers for 2020. In reality, nobody has a clue! I think it's reasonable to forecast the numbers, the recovery in China is going to come before anywhere else and they are a near neighbor and the number of cases there is already reducing significantly, 30 mill. makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipButty Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, madmitch said: Why bother to speculate on tourist numbers for 2020. In reality, nobody has a clue! Unless they know something me and you dont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soalbundy Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, sahibji said: they do not come in big numbers to thailand relatively. I meant tourists to Italy, they have a nationwide lockdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anchadian Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 There's an excellent article in today's Bangkok Post which details all the failings of the government. Worth a read. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henryford Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 A drop from 40 million to 30 million is a 25% drop. I think it will be far higher than that if Chinese tourists are down 85%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, Henryford said: A drop from 40 million to 30 million is a 25% drop. I think it will be far higher than that if Chinese tourists are down 85%. 30 Million is the whole year estimate. Tourism for February is down 44%, Chinese tourism for February is down 85%, those are one month figures only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, anchadian said: There's an excellent article in today's Bangkok Post which details all the failings of the government. Worth a read. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fastplus Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 My Thai girlfriend is working at the thai bank, the credit card department. she told me they had very many calls because of the non-payment of credit card loans..many Thais have trouble repaying loans...I think, this is direct evidence that the Thai economy is in trouble,,causes fall tourism, corona virus, China, strong baht, not welcome for expats life in Thailand. yes chinese tourist - welcome,, but foreigners from USA, EU, AUS = not welcome = TM30, VISA rules,, dual prices, as Anutin said: need to kick out farangs... ocourse, not all Thai people have the same opinion as Anutin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
30la Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 17 hours ago, webfact said: Thailand tourist arrivals in February fall 44.3% due to coronavirus And as always ... you never have the fault, the virus, the world economy, the Baht that you cannot "control" and to finish all the "wrong" news published by the media and in the forums ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Fex Bluse Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 Very much looking forward to the total collapse of the tourism industry here. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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