17 hours ago, webfact said:

In the worst-case scenario, the number of foreign tourists may fall to 30 million this year from last year's 39.8 million, with spending down 22%, "if the virus situation bottoms in May," he said.

Continue to produce false numbers, the result will remain negative ...

17 hours ago, saengd said:

Just read that a few times and let it sink in, 30 million tourists is a worst case scenario

He's hoping worst case scenario is 30 million.... that figure is sugar coated!

If the baht drops because of this then its a good thing.

1 minute ago, hotchilli said:

He's hoping worst case scenario is 30 million.... that figure is sugar coated!

Cases in China have slowed markedly, pollution is increasing over manufacturing centers as people get back to work, Chinese tourism represents the vast majority of tourists to Thailand. his estimate does have a logical basis in fact, your opinion doesn't.

They obviously don't understand the expression 'worst case scenario'.

 

8 minutes ago, saengd said:

Cases in China have slowed markedly, pollution is increasing over manufacturing centers as people get back to work, Chinese tourism represents the vast majority of tourists to Thailand. his estimate does have a logical basis in fact, your opinion doesn't.

In your opinion of course.

17 hours ago, saengd said:

Currently exports are at USD 19.5 bill., down from a peak of USD 22.5 bill, we're currently at 2016 levels. The rapid growth rate was never sustainable and everyone understood that.

No not everyone .. People had heads in the sand as they hammered expats and expect them to send home that Thailand was fantastic place to live .. Then the baht grew strong .. It wasn’t just the virus that has caused their fall ... It’s been the total disregard and red tape increase to the biggest marketing tool they had ... Talk about pooing in the nest .. They have 

5 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

In your opinion of course.

No, in the WHO's opinion.

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

 

https://fortune.com/2020/03/03/rising-pollution-china-factories-coronavirus-outbreak/

 

Edited March 10, 20206 yr by saengd

3 minutes ago, Millcx said:

No not everyone .. People had heads in the sand as they hammered expats and expect them to send home that Thailand was fantastic place to live .. Then the baht grew strong .. It wasn’t just the virus that has caused their fall ... It’s been the total disregard and red tape increase to the biggest marketing tool they had ... Talk about pooing in the nest .. They have 

Thailand could afford to get rid of every western expat tomorrow and the impact on the Thai economy would be close to zero.

1 minute ago, saengd said:

No, in the WHO's opinion.

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

 

https://fortune.com/2020/03/03/rising-pollution-china-factories-coronavirus-outbreak/

 

And you believe what the WHO say.... that say's it all.
Don't bother to reply... it's getting very boring

Just now, hotchilli said:

And you believe what the WHO say.... that say's it all.
Don't bother to reply... it's getting very boring

Too funny, can't believe the WHO's numbers, can't believe TAT's numbers, can't believe BOT's numbers, can't believe, can't believe.

14 hours ago, saengd said:

Setting aside for a moment the question of whether or not it is actually possible to transit Swampy versus Transfer at Swampy, I'll dig out the prior thread where airline staff argued it was not possible to transit at Swampy, I argued that is was but was subsequently convinced otherwise.

 

Back to the numbers: if it is possible to transit at swampy then transit passengers cannot possibly be included in the arriving passenger count because they never clear Immigration ergo they never arrive....TOT even separates them from their passenger counts (see below).

 

Transfer passengers do arrive because they clear Immigration hence they are counted, even if they immediately check in for a connecting flight. But as said earlier, how many long haul passengers would do that sort of turnaround, some I suppose but not many.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

 

I think you’ve said this twice already. Why do you keep thinking very few people fly into Bangkok and then go onto  another country??  I’ve met dozens of people on my flights in and have several friends who do this. You land at BKK and then go onto Cambodia , Laos , Vietnam , Myanmar even Maldives or Australia.  So many people coming to South East Asia completely skip BKK in BOTH directions. I’m sure it’s way over a million ++ BKK is often the cheapest place to transfer or transit and many nearby countries don’t have as many or no direct flights to Europe etc. 

2 minutes ago, alex8912 said:

I think you’ve said this twice already. Why do you keep thinking very few people fly into Bangkok and then go onto  another country??  I’ve met dozens of people on my flights in and have several friends who do this. You land at BKK and then go onto Cambodia , Laos , Vietnam , Myanmar even Maldives or Australia.  So many people coming to South East Asia completely skip BKK in BOTH directions. I’m sure it’s way over a million ++ BKK is often the cheapest place to transfer or transit and many nearby countries don’t have as many or no direct flights to Europe etc. 

I do believe that people fly to Bangkok and then on to other destinations although I don't believe many people fly long haul and then transfer to a second flight the same day. The original question was whether transit/transfer passengers were counted in arriving tourist numbers, it is clear that transits, if indeed they exist, are not. I also think it's extremely likely that transfer passengers in the main, probably stop over in Thailand before flying on. 

 

The second part of this picture as to why involves overall numbers, the majority of tourists to Thailand are Chinese who fly direct, the smaller percentage of other tourists may or may not include those who transfer the same day. The numbers therefore of potential tourists in the category of "arrive and depart" straight away, must be very very few.

14 hours ago, saengd said:

Setting aside for a moment the question of whether or not it is actually possible to transit Swampy versus Transfer at Swampy, I'll dig out the prior thread where airline staff argued it was not possible to transit at Swampy, I argued that is was but was subsequently convinced otherwise.

 

Back to the numbers: if it is possible to transit at swampy then transit passengers cannot possibly be included in the arriving passenger count because they never clear Immigration ergo they never arrive....TOT even separates them from their passenger counts (see below).

 

Transfer passengers do arrive because they clear Immigration hence they are counted, even if they immediately check in for a connecting flight. But as said earlier, how many long haul passengers would do that sort of turnaround, some I suppose but not many.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

 

Transfer refers to passengers going from international to domestic or domestic to domestic, all international passengers would clear immigration on arrival. Same for me going BKK to MAN via LHR.

Transit is international to international, hence the term transit visa. I used to travel on the Amsterdam/Taipai flight which came via BKK. Although the stop was very short all passengers had to disembark to clean the aircraft for new passengers boarding at BKK, there would have been insufficient time for through passengers to leave the airside of the airport.

Transit passengers may leave airside if they wish but they would be liable for the 700 baht airport tax as it would not be included in the ticket.

Hopefully a correction will occur in the exchange rates. 

(I can then explain to my partner again where the 20,000 baht a month dissapears to.)

16 hours ago, zydeco said:

Let's hope the banks don't start to fail with a liquidity crunch and people/businesses hoarding cash.

Your post is contradictory. If people hoard cash (presumably instead of spending), they hoard it in bank deposits. Which increases bank liquidity. And Thai banks are surprisingly well capitalised.

 

people won’t hoard cash notes, they have nasty virus bugs on them.

Just now, sandyf said:

Transfer refers to passengers going from international to domestic or domestic to domestic, all international passengers would clear immigration on arrival. Same for me going BKK to MAN via LHR.

Transit is international to international, hence the term transit visa. I used to travel on the Amsterdam/Taipai flight which came via BKK. Although the stop was very short all passengers had to disembark to clean the aircraft for new passengers boarding at BKK, there would have been insufficient time for through passengers to leave the airside of the airport.

Transit passengers may leave airside if they wish but they would be liable for the 700 baht airport tax as it would not be included in the ticket.

Yes, agreed. As said previously: I started off believing that transit at BKK was possible, I even recall dong so myself. But then I was persuaded by a poster who claimed to be "airline personnel" that it was no longer possible, I posted that discussion earlier. I then checked further and see there are transit facilities albeit I don't know any airline that uses them any more, even Bangkok Airways seems to have forced everyone into transfers.

31 minutes ago, saengd said:

Cases in China have slowed markedly, pollution is increasing over manufacturing centers as people get back to work, Chinese tourism represents the vast majority of tourists to Thailand. his estimate does have a logical basis in fact, your opinion doesn't.

Mmm, if people in China are getting back to work, what makes you think that will translate into tourism to Thailand? It might do eventually, but before then, people who haven’t been paid have to rebuild their cash, China has to get back to normal and Chinese people have to get over the fear factor of travelling to another country which isn’t exactly covid free.

 

hard to say what a worst case figure is, 30 million doesn’t sound THAT bad to me given what is going on. Sounds more like a most likely figure to me.

 

but that’s just my opinion

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Mmm, if people in China are getting back to work, what makes you think that will translate into tourism to Thailand? It might do eventually, but before then, people who haven’t been paid have to rebuild their cash, China has to get back to normal and Chinese people have to get over the fear factor of travelling to another country which isn’t exactly covid free.

 

hard to say what a worst case figure is, 30 million doesn’t sound THAT bad to me given what is going on. Sounds more like a most likely figure to me.

 

but that’s just my opinion

I did say in about six months in the following post although I didn't expand on the one you quoted, sorry:

 

 

4 minutes ago, saengd said:

I do believe that people fly to Bangkok and then on to other destinations although I don't believe many people fly long haul and then transfer to a second flight the same day. The original question was whether transit/transfer passengers were counted in arriving tourist numbers, it is clear that transits, if indeed they exist, are not. I also think it's extremely likely that transfer passengers in the main, probably stop over in Thailand before flying on. 

 

The second part of this picture as to why involves overall numbers, the majority of tourists to Thailand are Chinese who fly direct, the smaller percentage of other tourists may or may not include those who transfer the same day. The numbers therefore of potential tourists in the category of "arrive and depart" straight away, must be very very few.

Sorry your “ belief “ is wrong in the first section of your comment above. Europe is an “easy “ 10-12 hour flight to BKK. A million ++ easily go onto a 60-90 minute flight to other Southeast Asian countries as I already pointed out.  I can tell you aren’t from the States or Canada where we all take 2-3 or even 4 flights just to get to BKK. Even many Americans on my flightS STILL go onto other Southeast Asian countries or even farther. You are basing your statement on YOUR own belief that someone flying from London or some other European City is tired after an 11 hour flight and most likely YOU are tired and would not consider flying onward again. Get it now?? You are wrong but also very hyper active on this thread so carry on mate!!! 

Visitors from China, Thailand's biggest source of tourists, tumbled 85.3%, TAT Governor Yuthasak Supasorn told a meeting of tourism operators
 

 

Shouldn't that be tumbled 100%? 

Maybe the downturn will free up brain space for the officials to get around to implementing a health insurance coverage plan for the tourists and expats who are here, or look like coming back to Thailand again. 

I can get a 365 days travel insurance policy for $1200 Australian. 

Called a single trip policy. 

Higher benefits than the Thais are offering. 

At 67 I'm looking at around $7,000 usd if I purchased the policy in Thailand. 

 

They cannot say they are too busy, with such a huge down turn. 

I still think it's a key issue and would certainly benefit the tourists who do come back. 

4 minutes ago, alex8912 said:

Sorry your “ belief “ is wrong in the first section of your comment above. Europe is an “easy “ 10-12 hour flight to BKK. A million ++ easily go onto a 60-90 minute flight to other Southeast Asian countries as I already pointed out.  I can tell you aren’t from the States or Canada where we all take 2-3 or even 4 flights just to get to BKK. Even many Americans on my flightS STILL go onto other Southeast Asian countries or even farther. You are basing your statement on YOUR own belief that someone flying from London or some other European City is tired after an 11 hour flight and most likely YOU are tired and would not consider flying onward again. Get it now?? You are wrong but also very hyper active on this thread so carry on mate!!! 

I have lived in the US for 15 years but I'm not from the US. But I have spent a decade of my adult life flying in SE Asia and the Far East.

 

See blow the AOT passengers numbers for 2018, you'll not that transit passengers are shown separately and are very small.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

 

If you have any stats to support your opinion please post them, otherwise it's just another unsupported opinion.

Its going to tumble a few more today, Thailand has now put Hong Kong on the list of banned countries we have some guest from Hong Kong who arrived at the airport only to be told you're going nowhere flights cancelled just this morning

18 hours ago, saengd said:

"In the worst-case scenario, the number of foreign tourists may fall to 30 million this year from last year's 39.8 million, with spending down 22%,".

 

Just read that a few times and let it sink in, 30 million tourists is a worst case scenario, does 30 million tourists sound like Armageddon to you! 30 million is 2017 levels.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

Who believe the numbers of TAT

The tourism market in Thailand will be dead this year, it's not worth the time to argue if it's 30 million or 25 million or whatever BS million number TAT throws up. China is in deep recovery mode at the moment with factories just starting to come on line and people moving back from their hometowns. Many have not been paid in February and March isn't looking so good either. Lots of small and mid sized companies are on the brink of insolvency and banks are in bad shape as well, so there's not a lot of slack there.

The global supply chain is an absolute mess at the moment and will probably take two months to get back to speed. Think about this: an iPhone has about 1,500 components coming from different factories - just missing a few will halt production.

I would not anticipate very many Chinese tourists the rest of the year as they recover from their own personal financial distress and their companies will be loathe to let them take holiday as they try to catch up and survive.

Tourists from Western countries ain't coming in any number to make a difference. First you have the ongoing clown show with quarantine threats and the uncertainty of how that might change between when you book and travel. Don't anticipate many people want to fly here and deal with that, combined with the potential quarantine when coming back - yeah boss I know I was out two weeks on holiday and now I need two weeks to sit at home - that'll go over real well!!

Also with the airlines cancelling flights en masse, who wants to book a flight and take a chance it gets cancelled or maybe the airline goes belly up. 

It all adds up to an absolute disaster for the tourist business this year and probably into next. Combine that with the drought affects on farm income, the very recent plunge in oil prices and the strong baht's impact on competitiveness, the Thai economy is heading for a crack-up. Not 1997 levels, but recession level for certain. Given the ineptitude of the Government this could be quite problematic. 

 

Take a well-deserved bow, Cha-Cha regime.  Your obscene relationship with China has ultimately thrown LoS into recession.  And the Baht/USD even rose for this occasion.

27 minutes ago, saengd said:

I have lived in the US for 15 years but I'm not from the US. But I have spent a decade of my adult life flying in SE Asia and the Far East.

 

See blow the AOT passengers numbers for 2018, you'll not that transit passengers are shown separately and are very small.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

 

If you have any stats to support your opinion please post them, otherwise it's just another unsupported opinion.

The people I discuss have to go through immigration , get their bags and then check in/ go to the next country on a different airline. No need to open a link for me. Its the truth and supported. Many people do this everyday at BKK. 

Tourism was on its way down a few years back when the BIB started taking control and using the Gestapo as immigration......... The virus has just given the powers that be a scapegoat to cover up all their incompetence, and everyone knows it........     Read carefully......... " You reap, what you sow "         and Karma's just doing her nails and finishing her cocktail, she'll be with you in a minute..............

17 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Its going to tumble a few more today, Thailand has now put Hong Kong on the list of banned countries we have some guest from Hong Kong who arrived at the airport only to be told you're going nowhere flights cancelled just this morning

Did they give a date this will last until ( at least as of today??). This means NO Cathay Pacific flights out of BKK to Hong Kong and beyond? 
Thank you or anyone who knows. Cathay is very popular for Americans for sure going from BKK to the states.