17 hours ago, Chivas said:

Probably 99% here are not afraid of the virus but 99% are rightly concerned about getting caught up in the subsequent disruption.

Nobody with any sense is booking right now for travel over the next 3 months

I have no sense. See you soon. 

1 hour ago, saengd said:

30 Million is the whole year estimate. 

 

Tourism for February is down 44%, Chinese tourism for February is down 85%, those are one month figures only.

But it will get worse before it gets better. Even when they have zero cases i don't expect a sudden rush of tourists for months.

Going to be a rough few months for local businesses .

17 hours ago, saengd said:

It's an important difference we all need to understand. Ask yourself, how many people fly long haul to Bangkok, clear customs and Immi. only to check in straight away and fly to yet another country, precious few I imagine.

I have often flown into Swampy on one international airline and transferred to another international airline to fly out if Thailand without going through passport control or customs. Bags are checked through to the final destination from the first port of boarding. Go to the transfer desk at Swampy and pick up the new boarding pass for the second airline.

Seems to be some confusion about this simple process.

Edited March 10, 20206 yr by emptypockets

12 minutes ago, kwak250 said:

But it will get worse before it gets better. Even when they have zero cases i don't expect a sudden rush of tourists for months.

Going to be a rough few months for local businesses .

Yes Songkran and April are done. I mean if entries are just 60% down, that I think would be a low number. Let’s face it May follows April hence super low arrivals still. Huge parties for Songkran are canceled. This includes the full moon party in April and huge gay parties in BKK and most other events and parties for everyone. Many people come for a week or so In April just for these events. I think even Khao Sarn water play will even be watered down ( excuse the pun lol ) or truly canceled with police out saying no no.  If Hong Kong arrivals are really canceled ( as another poster just reported ) that is a HUGE factor for tourism as well. 

Edited March 10, 20206 yr by alex8912

They will have a new low point when the CV is under control, then TAT can boast and report for many years to come the gradual increase in tourist arrivals.

Cut the value of the baht and stop the burning......enough said

3 hours ago, mrmicbkktxl said:

Exactly, I have a few friends left around the world and most of them are frequent visitors of Thailand.50% cancelled their April and May Thailand trips,the other half is waiting with a booking.I think only idiots would book a Thai vacation at this time

Thanks, I arrived yesterday!

Last week three regular customers arrived at swampy on different days at different times. Every one told me when they got to immigration it was simply walk around the tapes, and choose your desk.........deserted............average 2 minutes to clear passport.

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

In your opinion of course.

And NASA. They published the data.

The economy here was already teetering. Bloomberg has been reporting that Thai manufacturing has been dropping for some time now. Long before Corona. The decimation of the tourism industry, by this spectacularly irresponsible, and incompetent administration has been happening for the entire six hapless years they have been in control. Their constant racist diatribes, their fake nationalism, a hostile immigration service, and all the constant drivel that emanates from Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin, Pipat, Big Oud, Big Joke, and countless other ranting fools has hurt this nation immeasurably. And now with the "place all of your eggs in the China basket" approach to tourism, they are paying a hefty price. Although I do feel bad for the Thai people, millions of whom will feel a world of hurt over this, in a sense it is their fault, for letting the army wrestle power away. That was a tragic error. Could it have been avoidable? Probably not. Can something be done now? You bet? Millions need to rise up and say enough. Hopefully that will happen. Thailand's future is very bleak with the army in charge. 

 

The other major issue is with the accuracy of the Corona numbers. Officially, Thailand has had one case in the past 24 hours, and about five in the past week to ten days. Is that real? A friend of mine tells me there are hundreds of people trying to get into many hospitals with flu like symptoms, and are waiting up to seven hours or longer, to see a doctor. What is up with that? Where is the truth in all of this? It does appear the government, like the administration in the US, quite possibly is doing everything in their power, to keep the truth from the people and the world. 

11 minutes ago, AhFarangJa said:

Last week three regular customers arrived at swampy on different days at different times. Every one told me when they got to immigration it was simply walk around the tapes, and choose your desk.........deserted............average 2 minutes to clear passport.

Been like that since before Christmas.

37 minutes ago, kwak250 said:

But it will get worse before it gets better. Even when they have zero cases i don't expect a sudden rush of tourists for months.

Going to be a rough few months for local businesses .

Waiting for cheap prices

 

Airlines are the problem

 

If cheap id book tomorrow

27 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

And NASA. They published the data.

Another entity funded by government...  I rest my case

so it clear the Chinese are going back to work(pollution levels on the rise in China) you can hide a lot but you can not hide that, what does that mean travel wise? will the Chinese go back to work and save their holiday for next year, or will they escape China now?

2 hours ago, saengd said:

Too funny, can't believe the WHO's numbers, can't believe TAT's numbers, can't believe BOT's numbers, can't believe, can't believe.

WHO, T.A.T, B.O.T, all funded or controlled by governments... same applies to NASA, 

naive, naive, naive..... 

The odd thing is that if you are North American or European, the chances are that you will be safer from Coronavirus in Thailand than at home. Reason - home is still chilly which is perfect for the transmission of the virus whereas Thailand is in the mid 30sC, which is the reason there has been relatively little transmission there.

Hmmm... I suggest numbers were falling well before the coronavirus and it is merely fortuitous nonsense to say otherwise..... but as we all know TIT

..another misleading head-line....i think there are other contributing factors as well..not been mentioned..such as, currency, air-quality, unscrupulous tour operators and vendors, political instability, student unrest, mass closure of factories and small businesses, abuse of children, human trafficking, unsafe drivers/riders, etc. etc...all tend to put off first-time travellers..IMHO based on observations and personal experiences.

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Your post is contradictory. If people hoard cash (presumably instead of spending), they hoard it in bank deposits. Which increases bank liquidity. And Thai banks are surprisingly well capitalised.

 

people won’t hoard cash notes, they have nasty virus bugs on them.

...i always nuke my notes for a few minutes.

19 hours ago, Airalee said:

Too bad personal debt levels will remain at 2019 levels.  But not to worry...the banks will accommodate them rather than asset strip them.

My Thai wife told me this morning that Thai finance companies here in Phuket as of yesterday have started offering existing car borrowers a 6 month moratorium on their car payments as they have stated they do not want any more cars returned. This goes for taxis and minibuses also , not just private.

1 minute ago, zaZa9 said:

My Thai wife told me this morning that Thai finance companies here in Phuket as of yesterday have started offering existing car borrowers a 6 month moratorium on their car payments as they have stated they do not want any more cars returned. This goes for taxis and minibuses also , not just private.

Good to hear they are accommodating the borrowers.

Edited March 10, 20206 yr by saengd

4 minutes ago, tandor said:

..another misleading head-line....i think there are other contributing factors as well..not been mentioned..such as, currency, air-quality, unscrupulous tour operators and vendors, political instability, student unrest, mass closure of factories and small businesses, abuse of children, human trafficking, unsafe drivers/riders, etc. etc...all tend to put off first-time travellers..IMHO based on observations and personal experiences.

...your always 'confused'

1 minute ago, tandor said:

...your always 'confused'

It's the norm., a perpetual state of confusion, don't know how he gets through the day.

I am not down playing the seriousness of this virus and I take it very seriously. I, like many, don’t want to take the risk of getting the disease despite the fairly low death rate which may drop the percentage rate even further when you add the true amount of infected, which will likely never be known as many experience mild symptoms and put it down to flu or the common cold. This scenario never enters the statistics as they never get tested. But my point to this is that human nature is to initially recoil in horror or distress especially with the media hyping it all up but like all things people eventually get used to it as wears thin on our psyche. It will soon simply become a fact of life like SARS and MERS both of which you can still get and have not been eradicated forever. We as a species cannot huddle together for too long before we get <deleted> off with ourselves and accept the risk and move on. The development of a vaccine of sorts would immediately change the game and would offer some psychological comfort. Human nature will get over the hype and eventually become annoyed at all the inconvenience this is causing and start living life again normally while accepting the risk. If the death rate was 30% or 50% or higher this would be an entirely different ball game and would very much reset the world population back a century. Unfortunately we have to go through this period of uncertainty and all that it brings because it part of our collective natural response to these situations. This virus will simply have to run its course. Governments were too slow to react and the genie is now out. Hopeful the next time they will learn to react quicker to prevent a much longer economic and health impact then delay and hope it will all go away. It’s at times like these that we see just how useless our governments actually are!

if everyone had shut down flights, trains, cruise ships ferry’s and any form of passenger carrying transport  from the country where the epicentre of the outbreak from day one we might be facing a different situation and the world could have sent supplies towards the problem and contain and treat it there. Now, every country is too busy containing its own outbreaks which were all imported because of they did not stop it when they should have. Who knows we might have been seeing it tapering off already. Let’s hope China and the rest of the world put a complete ban on the importation and sale of wild animals for food. First SARS and now COVID-19 both originating out of China from widely accepted animal to human transmission. Can’t really be allowed to continue, now can it?

17 hours ago, Airalee said:

As I said.  It depends on the agreement between airlines.  Are you going to call every airline to verify?  Some, you can go straight to the transit counter...hence...no need to go through immigration.  Others, you go through immigration and customs and then fly straight out.  I know many who have done it both ways.  It’s really no mystery.  No reply is necessary.  You were wrong.  

    As far as I'm concerned, it doesn't really matter one way or the other.  If TAT is always using one system to count arrivals to give their monthly and yearly tourism totals,  then the only important thing is whether TAT is still in 2020 using the same system when it compares data from one year to the next.  

85 %  less Chinese and 44 % of normal.  I think many people were booked with a go or lose the money so they came.       I think the number for the rest of the year will be lower than 44%. I can see wealthy Chinese  coming but not the average  Joe's for at least a year And demand for exports will be lower.   People who have lost 20% in retirement accounts  are not going to risk travel for a year.  This virus possibly will be endemic for years to come.   Pollution  and military  rule are not ok with western people.  They will be lucky to see 20 million tourists but my money is on 15. 

Edited March 10, 20206 yr by Elkski

1 minute ago, newnative said:

    As far as I'm concerned, it doesn't really matter one way or the other.  If TAT is always using one system to count arrivals to give their monthly and yearly tourism totals,  then the only important thing is whether TAT is still in 2020 using the same system when it compares data from one year to the next.  

Exactly that, it's the year on year comparison that's important, the other stuff is just a smoke screen to try and support a case for bad numbers.

2 minutes ago, Elkski said:

85 %  less Chinese and 44 % of normal.  I think many people were booked with a go or lose the money for bookings so they came.   I think the number for the rest of the year will be lower than 44%. I cam see wealthy Chinese  com ik ng but not the average  Joe's for at least a year And demand for exports will be lower.   People who have lost 20% in retirement accounts  ate not going to risk travel for a year.  This virus possibly will be endemic for years to come.   Pollution  and military  rule are not ok with western people.  They will be lucky to see 20 million tourists but my money is on 15. 

Nobody cares about Westerner tourist numbers and pollution is the norm, it's defacto.

13 minutes ago, saengd said:

Good to hear they are accommodating the borrowers.

They are not accommodating the borrowers at all.

They are simply allowing borrowers 6 Months grace on their Loan repayments.

The Loans will still be there at the end of the 6 Months period, and will probably carry some charge or another for the privilege of being able to offset the payments for that period.

Loan Companies are the same as Banks,- they give the Customer NOTHING AT ALL, and this repayment offset is to reduce the amount of stock vehicles on NPL they will hold and have to sell at a loss.

Keep the numbers low, and hopefully the price stays fairly high for selling on

 

20 minutes ago, saengd said:

Good to hear they are accommodating the borrowers.

No it's more likely they have filled their repo lots and have nowhere to sell the cars and vans they take back. Better to push things off and hope for a recovery than to take back a car and have an immediate loss.