Thailand reports 30 new coronavirus cases, total of 177, official says

[DrTuner]

59 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

Breaking:

 

Sources in Patttaya have confirmed tonight that the provincial government of Chon Buri, including the Bang Lamung district, has ordered that, from tomorrow, all entertainment venues must close.

 

https://twitter.com/ThaigerNews/status/1239926264217010176

 

 

Oh it's going to be nice walking down the post-apocalypse walking street.

 

[Mung]

SE Asian countries are seeing an uptick in cases over the previous 24 hours;
Indonesia     38 
Philippines  45 
Malaysia      107

Cambodia    21 
Thailand      30
Laos             0 total..??

[Timwin]

Germany currently 300 cases per HOUR! The differences between R0 make all the difference. Praise the Hot Season!

[Stargeezr]

Sorry sandf, you seem to believe the official government numbers, do you remember how those numbers climbed to the 30s then stopped? It was not because people were not getting sick, but

because the officials did not want higher numbers. There have been people douting th

numbers, and that isthe smart thing to do. In my opinion anyway.

Geezer

[Don Chance]

It will be all over the world soon. There is no stopping it. Herd immunity will be reached. Hopefully we all have mild cases.

 

What i have heard is that every 2 weeks you will 10 times the cases.

 

So if Thailand has 5000 infected cases (asymptomatic )

By April there will be 500000

By May it will all be over, no one left to infect.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Don Chance

[Pancho]

Silly people, has The Thai government ever told the truth? On anything, ever?......why would they? 

Remind yourself of how they seized power.

 

[Whip]

Add 000 to the 177

[Tayaout]

7 hours ago, DrTuner said:

It's amazing how nimble US folks can be when they have to .. https://hackaday.com/2020/03/12/ultimate-medical-hackathon-how-fast-can-we-design-and-deploy-an-open-source-ventilator/ . They might jerry-rig something. It's good to see people are trying to find solutions.

I read somewhere that 3D printed ventilators are already in use somewhere (Italy?). 

 

I also saw plan for 3D printed 3M half mask respirator. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Tayaout

[ThailandRyan]

8 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Oh it's going to be nice walking down the post-apocalypse walking street.

 

Good movie, think I will watch it again

[Aussie999]

"Eleven of the new cases are connected to a crowded boxing match that saw a large number of coronavirus cases," today's news states 37, does that mean  it's 203 cases... there seems to be a pattern starting to form, record day jumps, I suspect they can no longer "hide" the truth. The public knows what is happening, and around my way, Mukdahan, Thais are very angry, with the government, for trying to hide the truth, and doing little to stop the virus spreading.

[Dice Man]

20 hours ago, JCP108 said:

I think it's both.

Agreed!

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I did not ask about the tracker SandyF. I asked where they are in the numbers listed as self isolating. Sorry I was not clear. I do not see a statistical spot for numbers of self isolation listed on the daily list of cases......

What you are suggesting is effectively meaningless as by definition it is self diagnosed and unrecorded, as opposed to quarantine. Any such number regarding self isolation would include those that have taken the decision without any real basis, either as a precaution or panic.

The tracker does include quarantine, you will notice that there are 77 at the naval base at Sattahip, which are as yet unconfirmed. 

This is about the best indication you will get.

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, sandyf said:

What you are suggesting is effectively meaningless as by definition it is self diagnosed and unrecorded, as opposed to quarantine. Any such number regarding self isolation would include those that have taken the decision without any real basis, either as a precaution or panic.

The tracker does include quarantine, you will notice that there are 77 at the naval base at Sattahip, which are as yet unconfirmed. 

This is about the best indication you will get.

Not meaningless, but impossible is what I was trying to get at....the one who tested positive from Belgium in the Northeast of Thailand, had just come from Pattaya and prior to that Belgium.  Contact transmission and community transmission without testing make all the trackers and statistics useless. You have kind of made my point with this response to my post....

[morrobay]

2 hours ago, Aussie999 said:

"Eleven of the new cases are connected to a crowded boxing match that saw a large number of coronavirus cases," 

It definitely spreads in crowded clusters -- avoid. And  take precautions everywhere. But the CDC has reported no documented cases of surfaces infections.  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html

See middle first paragraph

I dont think anyone in the stadium was infected from a chair

Edited March 18, 2020 by morrobay

[christophe75]

Here are important hard data from Italy.

 

To this date : 2 500 deaths from the virus.

 

Silvio Brusaferro, head of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, press conference Rome, march 13.

 

"Positive deceased patients have an average of over 80 years - 80.3 to be exact...The majority of these people are carriers of chronic diseases. Only two people were not presently carriers of [other non-COV] diseases', but even in these two cases, the examination of the files is not concluded and therefore, causes of death different from Covid-19 could emerge."

 

[source]

https://www.globalist.it/science/2020/03/13/coronavirus-l-eta-media-dei-morti-in-italia-e-di-80-3-anni-un-quarto-sono-donne-2054434.html

 

So to the demented people who were talking about 600 000 deaths in Italy if nothing is done... and all the maniacs afraid of their own shadows.... you are clueless.

 

The Wuhan Virus is not much, in the grand scheme of things.

 

It kills old people, sick, who would have died anyway during the year. And a few young people (yes, bad luck)... Period.

 

I agree.... those are thousands of individual and family tragedies... but from a demographic point of view, on the world scale,.... IT'S NOTHING.

 

I remind you that 647 000 italians died in 2019.

633 000 in 2018.

 

So to close the world, the whole world for this so called "threat", is just sheer madness.

 

You are not sick from the virus.

 

But sick in your mind (most of you).

[sandyf]

6 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

Sorry sandf, you seem to believe the official government numbers, do you remember how those numbers climbed to the 30s then stopped? It was not because people were not getting sick, but

because the officials did not want higher numbers. There have been people douting th

numbers, and that isthe smart thing to do. In my opinion anyway.

Geezer

Everyone is free to believe what they want, I just pay attention to reality.

I went into Malaysia at the beginning of Feb and there was a guy wiping the fingerprint machine every time it was used, yet the experts on here were complaining about the lack of precautions, what was the reality?

My niece is at one of the largest hospitals in Bangkok and quite involved as she did her degree in China and speaks Chinese. Since mid Jan they have had a string of suspected cases but not until Monday did they get the first confirmed case, and today that is now 4, so what is the reality, cases have quadrupled in 2 days or 4 cases in 10 weeks? Context is an alien concept to some.

I am not saying the government did everything it could but they did take steps in trying to prevent the disease entering the country, unfortunately it would appear that the spread is increasing due to domestic transmission. It was reported last week that 11 cases came about from a party where some individuals shared the same glass and one had been to Hong Kong. No government can legislate for stupidity, reality is like beauty, in the eye of the beholder.

[sandyf]

21 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Not meaningless, but impossible is what I was trying to get at....the one who tested positive from Belgium in the Northeast of Thailand, had just come from Pattaya and prior to that Belgium.  Contact transmission and community transmission without testing make all the trackers and statistics useless. You have kind of made my point with this response to my post....

Quite, just like the flu stats each winter, all based on medical recording rather than reality. What percentage of people suffering from flu each year ever get tested?

At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is if medical intervention is necessary. Forecasting can be useful but speculation is useless.

[NanLaew]

On 3/17/2020 at 9:44 PM, NCC1701A said:

this evening in Hua Hin you can hear people coughing with a deep very congested sounding cough as they walk around and while eating.

 

of course it is flu season.

 

i really hope everybody is going to be alright. there are so many older frail men in Hua Hin sitting in large groups. I mean honestly it is like a retirement home. the perfect place for the virus to kill. I guess these old guys don't care if they get it. they are smoking and drinking also. again the worst thing you can do.   

 

i did see a uptick in masks on farangs today in the malls. from zero to maybe 5.

 

I thought you were self-exiling or something at home with your last/best squeeze and not gadding about over there in east Skegness?

 

Deep, phlegmy coughs are OK. It's repeated dry coughing that's the precursor of doom + fever and shortness of breath.

 

The bars in 'Soi Sampan' in Udon are similarly well stocked with smoking, yacking, hacking coffin dodgers too so Hua Hin's not all that exclusive.

 

Considering all the sh!tholes I have passed through since the New Year, I may be asymptomatic so I too have started wearing a mask.

 

 

[bkkcanuck8]

On 3/18/2020 at 10:53 AM, sandyf said:

Quite, just like the flu stats each winter, all based on medical recording rather than reality. What percentage of people suffering from flu each year ever get tested?

At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is if medical intervention is necessary. Forecasting can be useful but speculation is useless.

Most western countries likely base their numbers based on advanced modelling (estimates)... I doubt they actually test the number reported. 

[sandyf]

15 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Most western countries likely base their numbers based on advanced modelling (estimates)... I doubt they actually test the number reported. 

Quite, all based on estimates, modelling is tailored by what is being reported to create a wider picture and demographic/risk factor variations.

Recent studies are indicating the estimated mortality from covid-19 could be lower and much nearer to that of flu than originally thought.

 

Influenza is a highly infectious disease that usually strikes during the winter season. Globally, it causes an estimated one billion cases of influenza, resulting in 290,000 to 650,000 deaths per year. A person can get the virus simply by being near an infected person that coughs, sneezes or talks, or by touching something with the virus on it.

https://www.ifpma.org/global-health-matters/flu-can-cause-up-to-650000-deaths-a-year-globally/

[bkkcanuck8]

5 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Quite, all based on estimates, modelling is tailored by what is being reported to create a wider picture and demographic/risk factor variations.

Recent studies are indicating the estimated mortality from covid-19 could be lower and much nearer to that of flu than originally thought.

 

Influenza is a highly infectious disease that usually strikes during the winter season. Globally, it causes an estimated one billion cases of influenza, resulting in 290,000 to 650,000 deaths per year. A person can get the virus simply by being near an infected person that coughs, sneezes or talks, or by touching something with the virus on it.

https://www.ifpma.org/global-health-matters/flu-can-cause-up-to-650000-deaths-a-year-globally/

And for the most part we don't do much other than an annual vaccine for elderly people and medical professionals to control the outbreak of annual flus.  California is currently modelling a 56% of the population infected from SARS-Cov-2.  Pandemics typically happen in waves, and over the 3 or so waves you could easily have north of 50 million fatalities from the virus if the social distancing fails.  BTW.  SARS-CoV-2 also has the same profile as a standard flu - i.e. near someone (with 4 meters in an enclosed area), getting it from surfaces that someone coughs on or sneezes on (fomite).  The difference is you have some immunity to flu viruses, you have none for the new one.   The one benefit is that with the SARS-CoV-2 virus you will likely be immune for the forseeable future if you do get infected - so eventually the pandemic would burn itself out (until SARS-CoV-3 emerges).

[sandyf]

4 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

And for the most part we don't do much other than an annual vaccine for elderly people and medical professionals to control the outbreak of annual flus.  California is currently modelling a 56% of the population infected from SARS-Cov-2.  Pandemics typically happen in waves, and over the 3 or so waves you could easily have north of 50 million fatalities from the virus if the social distancing fails.  BTW.  SARS-CoV-2 also has the same profile as a standard flu - i.e. near someone (with 4 meters in an enclosed area), getting it from surfaces that someone coughs on or sneezes on (fomite).  The difference is you have some immunity to flu viruses, you have none for the new one.   The one benefit is that with the SARS-CoV-2 virus you will likely be immune for the forseeable future if you do get infected - so eventually the pandemic would burn itself out (until SARS-CoV-3 emerges).

I posted elsewhere that Thai research had identified covid-19 as a mutation of SARS-Cov-2 and claim to have identified 49 strains of the mutation.

[bkkcanuck8]

Just now, sandyf said:

I posted elsewhere that Thai research had identified covid-19 as a mutation of SARS-Cov-2 and claim to have identified 49 strains of the mutation.

You don't know what you are talking about.  Covid-19 is the disease.  SARS-Cov-2 (L and S Type; around 99.987% identical) is the virus that causes COVID-19.  SARS (2002) is about 79% in common with SARS-CoV-2 (not surprising since they are both corona viruses along with 4 strains that are cold and MERS).  There is a natural mutation that occurs in the RNA of the virus (sort of a genetic geneology) but they are one or two markers on average.   If you are exposed to SARS-CoV-2 - you will almostly assuredly be immune to all strains and slight mutations. 

 

- 34% of Americans have diabetes (6% mortality rate)

- Nearly half of adults in America (108 million or 45%) have hypertension (defined as a systolic blood pressure ≥ 130 mm Hg or a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 80 mm Hg or are taking medication for hypertension).  Only 1 in 4 have it controlled (7.3% mortality rate)

- 34.3 million people smoke. (don't have stats for this one).

I believe all those 'risk' categories are because of elevated ACE2

 

 

[DJ54]

Is there a website or? To find out if any cases in our area. Wife said one case 10 km from Kumphawapi 

Edited March 21, 2020 by DJ54
Case not cause

[sandyf]

5 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

You don't know what you are talking about. 

That is out of order, but par for the course, if anything was wrong it wasn't my words.

 

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-research-indicates-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-is-indeed-mutating-into-various-strains-that-have-specific-preference-of-attacking-human-host-

[DrTuner]

9 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The one benefit is that with the SARS-CoV-2 virus you will likely be immune for the forseeable future if you do get infected - so eventually the pandemic would burn itself out (until SARS-CoV-3 emerges).

I haven't seen any information yet on possible immunity. It's too early to tell.

[DrTuner]

9 hours ago, sandyf said:

I posted elsewhere that Thai research had identified covid-19 as a mutation of SARS-Cov-2 and claim to have identified 49 strains of the mutation.

Viruses mutate all the time as they pick up pieces to their RNA while replicating in the host cells. In an epidemic this size there is a real danger of one of the millions of hosts giving it a turbo boost. Let's hope that will not happen.

 

EDIT: And damn if it hasn't happened already: https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-latestcoronavirus-research-reveals-that-the-virus-has-mutated-gene-similar-to-hiv-and-is-1,000-times-more-potent-

 

Here's one of the findings: http://www.virology.ws/2020/02/13/furin-cleavage-site-in-the-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-glycoprotein/

 

I am running Stanford's distributed computing node on all of my computers in a small bid to help, it is related to that one. Everyone who wants and has CPU/GPU time available can join: https://foldingathome.org/

Edited March 21, 2020 by DrTuner