Officials forecast 400,000 COVID-19 cases in Thailand

[Tchooptip]

7 hours ago, ianezy0 said:

People are also urged to wear a face mask when outside.......

 

Back to this old chestnut again!

It prevents the contagious who stil  ignore it from sending miasma in the faces of others, although it does not seem to please you it is however obvious.

[Traubert]

34 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

The experience in China is an infection rate of about 30% of the population. Doing the math on the Thai population, the "experts" are saying it will be only 8.6%. Sounds quite optimistic to me.

Based on a death rate of 3%, looks like they'll need 12,000 ICU's.

I wear a mask due to the crappy air in Chiang Rai. Protection from the virus is MAYBE a side benefit. Keeping the hands clean is far more important.

What?

 

82000 is 30% of the population of China? Since when?

[bkkcanuck8]

8 hours ago, zydeco said:

How many required ICU beds does this translate into?

 

Well, if you figure NY now has 1,300 cases ... 19% requiring hospitalization (hospitalization likely means oxygen support or ICU) a portion of that would be ICU.  Based on the distribution talked about earlier of 80, 15, 5 (5% being ICU, 15% severe) that would translate into 20,000 ICU beds at different times.  If it is a spike... most that would be at the same time.  ICU beds tend to be very limited (in many hospitals [not based on Thailand] it tends to average 10 or less per hospital - trauma centers tend to have higher percentages and others lower).   Many of those beds are typically used for already known issues - so only a subset of those would be available. 

 

400,000 sounds suspiciously like they just took the annual reported flu infections and used it as their estimate... only problem is of the different flu strains - a large number of the population would have some immunity - there is none this time so I suspect there assumption may be wrong.

[Artisi]

7 hours ago, KhunKenAP said:

Hold On! The General told us in January the situation is 100% under control. 

Correct, the means of passing it on is 100% under control - - open, borders, particularly from the host country and BS reporting the severity. 

[jhawks09]

Quite a range between #1 @ 400k and #2 @ 9.9 million what about a "1b" at 2 million or "1c" at 4 million. Where do they come with these numbers? Mostly from their posteriors. 

What statisics do they use to support any of them?

[Pancho]

That is such mind numbing BS. To Repeat info like that, spook the heard, reactionary, knee jerk, predatory black propaganda. Pathetic.  Weak. It’s criminal to attack the innocent Thais, who may not yet understand that their media/government may at times stray off the path of truth.
 

There are 0 cases of the wuhons“    little gift “ to the world here in Phuket.

Thailand is self sufficient. Fish, meat, vegetables, rice. All here.
 

Fact: this is not a death penalty.

Fact: it behaves like the flu.

fact: the reaction/ behavior may cause more problems than the illness.

Fact: Oxygen therapy is most effective  where advanced pulmonary fluid is present.

if one passes on as a result of exposure to this virus, ( I need to be a bit firm) there is a strong likelihood they would not have survived anyhow. Rant done.   ????????????????
 

[Tchooptip]

6 hours ago, aussienam said:

Field hospitals by army personnel will be only option.  

They started to do that in France in Alsatian region already !

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts and replies have been removed. 

 

A post containing unattributed content has been removed, please provide a valid link to the source of information when posting. 

[Fred white]

8 hours ago, ParkerN said:

Well, look at it from their POV. They have no clues. It's like a drowning man clutching at straws. and assuming (probably rightly), that the proletariat are just too dim to know any different. One of the advantages of keeping them poor and uneducated; they'll believe pretty much anything.

 

Just wait for the folk magic to start: A dead person riding in on a celestial white chariot to slay the Covid-19 dragon and save the Nation..

 

Wait and see.

 

 

Well I did see on TV a temple full of people shoulder to shoulder holding strings while the monks chanted so I guess they hope Buddha will come down and slay the bad virus good luck with that 

[Fred white]

2 hours ago, Ricebarnandrooms said:

400000 to 16 Million. That seems to cover the options. Imagine all the loud music from all the funeral parties. 
du dum dum dum 

Time to get some heavy duty ear plugs 

[manhood]

The problem will be, if many infected get serious problems and be hospitalied. So the capicity in hospitals for treatments is sure far from what will be needed! That's the scary part of it! Europe who have now a high infection rate, bedude Italy,  try to stretch the situation that too many people nerd care in hospitals . In Thailand you hear nothing about all of that. I estvh german public broadcasting TV closely and see how they prepare everything. The Thai style if informing people is worth nothing without proper informations and transparency......oh sorry, it's not what this government want!

[0zr0cks]

9 hours ago, Jingthing said:

And anyone that believed that I'm selling a bridge cheap. 

Concrete or steel? I don’t need any more steels I’ve put a deposit on 13 already ????

[Older and Wiser]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

 

Health officials in Thailand have forecast that at least 400,000 people may be diagnosed with the coronavirus, COVID-19, by the end of next year.

 

The first scenario, which health officials believe is most likely, is that up to 400,000 people will become infected with the virus by the end of 2020.

 

Sorry, I'll read that again.

[ParkerN]

5 hours ago, Mung said:

You can only get CIOVID from somebody else

At the moment.

 

I suspect this li'l fella hasn't finished growing yet.

 

The worrying thing is that if this gets even near the awful predictions I've seen, then the likelihood that the original virus did indeed leak from a germ warfare lab in China, may actually gain credence. In which case, we all ought to sally forth down the wat and see whether the abbot is home.

[Miami007]

9 hours ago, dukeandduke said:

Wonderful.  "Officials" say this.  As opposed to all of the doctors who say otherwise, unless you're sick, a health care worker, etc.

The interesting part is that the masks apparently do not help the general population, but are vitally important for healthcare workers (same mask not N95).  So, the mask protects the wearer who is in close contact with an infected person, but not people walking in the street?  Seems more like a case of that they can not produce enough masks to protect everyone and are rationing to people with a greater risk.

 

Also, if it prevents infected people from spreading the virus and as many people are asymptomatic but still contagious, it would be too late to wait until a person develops symptoms.  If EVERYONE wears a mask (healthy, sick and sick who appear healthy), the spread of the virus will slow.

 

Just a few things to consider

 

[bkkcanuck8]

16 minutes ago, Elkski said:

And dont forget China has been burning the bodies like they are super hazardous bio waste.  

Freezer space was limited ???? 

 

Since there are no funerals with infected bodies (standard practice in outbreaks like this)... they had to do something and cremating makes sense.

 

The 'haze' that some malpersons posted as being smog from cremation though was actually the trucks going around spraying mist to disinfect surfaces around the city (sometimes twice a day. The posters would have been aware of that - but unfortunately some just want to cause panic to get clicks.

Edited March 18, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[JCP108]

18 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

 Seems more like a case of that they can not produce enough masks to protect everyone and are rationing to people with a greater risk.

 

 

 

It's not that simple. You have to consider that the only way to make sure that you don't infect yourself when putting on the mask is to sanitize your hands and/or wear gloves while putting it on. If you have touched anything after putting your gloves on, you have to put new, clean gloves on before touching the mask and putting it on your face. Then you have to completely refrain from touching the mask and your face with your hands once you touch anything with your hands after you put the mask on. You have to then sanitize your hands before touching the mask to take it off and then throw it away (as in, don't reuse it). This is the standard practice in hospital settings which is why people say that masks "when used properly by hospital staff" offer protection that they don't off the general public. It's not a case of higher need of hospital staff. It's that they use them properly. The general public doesn't follow those rules and, therefore, actually increases their risk of transferring pathogens to their face when using masks. The general public often will reuse them due to shortages or to save money.  

Edited March 18, 2020 by JCP108
hearing voices

[Peterphuket]

Or, do we have already 400,000 cases in Thailand.

It's just a question.

[Miami007]

3 hours ago, crazykopite said:

400,000 end of next year it will be that by September most Thais don’t wash their hands when they go to the toilet next time your in one of the shopping malls spend 10 minutes observing in the toilets I would say 1 in 10 wash their hands the rest just look in the mirror squeeze a zit and walk out. I used to use a particular sushi bar until I witnessed one of the chefs using the toilet and walking straight out without going near the washing facilities.

 

 

 

 

 

Aside from Coronavirus, you may get a severe case of GI disease, Hep A in that establishment..

[Miami007]

4 hours ago, Mikeasq60 said:

Do people realize China has resumed normal activities while the rest of the world is suffering? Whats going on here.

I am asking myself that question as well... it took China about 3 months to get the situation under control (and they isolated the outbreak to mostly one area), while the west now is talking about 12-18 months of "social distancing", closing schools, gatehrings, travel restrictions - basically killing the economy for more than 1 year...

What did China do that we can imitate?

[Miami007]

4 hours ago, Mung said:

It's impossible to know without knowing the numbers of infected that are not confirmed. Globally and across all ages, the results of confirmed cases stand at 9% fatal 91% recovered. When hospitals are overrun beyond capacity and people are left to fend for themselves, which will happen in most countries, that ratio is going to change by quite a lot 

If we are only counting the mortality among cases with a final outcome (recovered or died), we should also look at the number of deaths this year (from February 1 - today) and compare them to historic averages.  Is there really a large increase in mortality in the EU, USA? 

 

Deaths will be recorded in the West and no government will be able to prevent information to get out if/ when people start dropping dead in the streets in droves.  This is not the case in Korea or Japan either, which are open societies.

 

BTW, A mortality rate of 10% of all resolved cases, seems to be in line with SARS

[Miami007]

6 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The range of infection estimates, I'm pretty certain, is based on the modeling world health authorities have done based on past virus outbreaks. It's not an exact number, and only a range, because there are a lot of variables:

 

different diseases are more or less contagious, affect different age groups differently, may be more or less seasonal, etc etc. And then there's the intervention issues -- governments & societies can take measures like quarantines, social distancing, etc that have the effect to cut down the infection rate, depending on how effectively and broadly they're enforced, and how early in the spread.

 

Depending on what Thailand does now and in the coming weeks/months, where the country actually ends up is either going to be on the high or low end of those estimate ranges.

 

Thailand has not really had any restrictions for Chinese visitors in January and February... and we are not hearing about many infections and deaths among the Thai or expat populations.  Now, as the virus has moved to Europe and the USA, it would be a big issue?   

[Artisi]

2 hours ago, jhawks09 said:

Quite a range between #1 @ 400k and #2 @ 9.9 million what about a "1b" at 2 million or "1c" at 4 million. Where do they come with these numbers? Mostly from their posteriors. 

What statisics do they use to support any of them?

Statistics are derived by waving a wet finger in the air combined with this month's lottery numbers. 

[Miami007]

8 hours ago, potless said:

I saw this video days ago and the first thing that struck me is that the presenter contradicts herself. The video isnt about whether or not masks are effective. The message is "leave them for the health workers".

yes, i noticed that too... so masks protect the healthcare worker because they are in close contact... I'd guess that it may be even more protection for a person who has casual exposure in the general population..

 

[JCP108]

3 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

I'd guess that it may be even more protection for a person who has casual exposure in the general population..

 

No. See my comment above. The general population doesn't use them properly...so, they aren't as effective and they actually increase risk when not used the way they are in the hospital setting. 

[Dogmatix]

10 hours ago, zydeco said:

How many required ICU beds does this translate into?

 

 

This is the $60,000 question. The best case scenario assumes 20,00 showing symptoms by the end of this year but that assumes tough measures being in place to suppress virus to get its transmission rate down to 1.6 onward transmissions per case.  I think that is about what was achieved in Wuhan which seems completely out of the question for Thailand as no really tough measures have been taken. The base case scenario of 3.5 million showing symptoms by the end of this year also looks a tough challenge given what has not be happening. If we assume the government department's own base case and guess at 15% needing ICU care, that is 525 cases needing ICU care this year. Assuming 21 days of ICU care each that would average out at 44,000 ICU beds needed but in cases of surges, it would be safer to have 60,000. 

 

Clearly the base case scenario is survivable as 20,000 showing symptoms by the end of the year is likely to translate into about 400 ICU beds.  But under the base case scenario there would clearly be a complete collapse of the public health system within a few weeks of the initial ramp up. That could turn into the worst case scenario which is 20 million showing symptoms by the end of the year.  

 

That seems to be the problem with the pandemic.  Bojo's team in the UK initially came up the nonsense about herd immunity and was all set to let the virus take its course and cull the elderly and those with comorbidity to salvage economic growth, until he learned what was happening in Italy where the treatment required in ICUs turned out to be more intensive and for longer than they expected.  That has put the public health service that is better resourced than the NHS on the brink of collapse, despite a fairly draconian lock down. Bojo finally realised that he wouldn't even survive politically, let alone go down in history as another Churchill, if the NHS, if he allowed the NHS to collapse, so he has been changing tack but it all looks too little and too late in the UK.  Thailand has the same information and the scenarios from its Emergency Ops Dept but also seems intent on doing things too little and too late. There is no suggestion that they followed Boris herd immunity theory and it seems more likely that they are too concerned about the economy and the interests of their business backers to flex with the wind and come back to fight another day.  I guess it's hard for the type of people in the government, who are used to getting their own way and being able to manage information to believe that things could spin out of control very fast. But planning based on their own best case scenario only does seem a bit risky.

[KhaoNiaw]

9 hours ago, graemeaylward said:

The article then goes on to talk about the end of 2020!

2020 is this year!  If the Government don't know what year we are in they are unlikely to be "in control" of any situation! ????????

Not the journo at fault? I bet no-one official even mentioned it as "2020".

Edited March 18, 2020 by KhaoNiaw

[Miami007]

5 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

No. See my comment above. The general population doesn't use them properly...so, they aren't as effective and they actually increase risk when not used the way they are in the hospital setting. 

I am sure many people who are not doctors or nurses can figure out how to use a mask properly.  

The message so far was that the masks do not protect against the virus, now the message is changing to that they protect, but regular people do not know how to use them.  

 

If everyone were to wear a mask, wouldn't it slow down the infection rate to some degree - which is the "flattening of the curve" governments in Europe/ USA want?  Sick people with or without officially recognized symptoms would keep their coughs and sneezes to themselves and some people in addition to healthcare workers would also be protected by properly using the mask.

 

Aside from wearing masks, what are the large differences between the measures in Asia (China, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan), which now seems to get the situation under control and Europe / USA?  

[Miami007]

59 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

It's not that simple. You have to consider that the only way to make sure that you don't infect yourself when putting on the mask is to sanitize your hands and/or wear gloves while putting it on. If you have touched anything after putting your gloves on, you have to put new, clean gloves on before touching the mask and putting it on your face. Then you have to completely refrain from touching the mask and your face with your hands once you touch anything with your hands after you put the mask on. You have to then sanitize your hands before touching the mask to take it off and then throw it away (as in, don't reuse it). This is the standard practice in hospital settings which is why people say that masks "when used properly by hospital staff" offer protection that they don't off the general public. It's not a case of higher need of hospital staff. It's that they use them properly. The general public doesn't follow those rules and, therefore, actually increases their risk of transferring pathogens to their face when using masks. The general public often will reuse them due to shortages or to save money.  

I can follow these instructions - many of my friends and relatives can do that as well... doesn't seem to be a very difficult protocol to follow (doctors and nurses are human too...)

[alfalfa19]

as we all know, the forecasts of Thai officials are always amazingly accurate.