Officials forecast 400,000 COVID-19 cases in Thailand

[Walter Travolta]

3 hours ago, aussienam said:

Way way too many people are being dismissive and nonchalant about this.  I just left Thailand but Thais and foreigners - particularly the older ones stuffed into bars with groping women, touching tables, glasses, toilet door handles, coughing patrons, close proximity, etc.  It is like a bomb about to explode with infections.  

Thankfully most of us will not die.  Those who are over 70 and those with existing health conditions, get inside and away from people. 

I have tried explaining this to the doom mongers. The virus started in December last year, the borders have remained open until recently, so why isnt Pattaya riddled with this virus already? What you are predicting should already be rife in Pattaya and other highly populated tourist areas. Im not being dismissive or nonchalant, Im trying to view it with an open mind and thought. 

I was in a bar last night and I was saying to my friend that all the fans in bars would add to spreading anything around in the air which one would think would increase the rate of infection, but Pattaya isnt even on the radar for this virus as far as I have seen (no STATISTICS from what I have seen). 

[Mung]

11 minutes ago, cryo said:

Official estimates rang from (0.1% age 1-20) (1% age 20-40) (1.8% 40-50) (2.5% 50-60) (3.5% 60-70) (13.6% 70-upover). Average mortality rate across all a age groups is approx. 1% of suspected infected cases (calculated infection rate not actual tested) These are China's figures up to date and are changing daily.

It's impossible to know without knowing the numbers of infected that are not confirmed. Globally and across all ages, the results of confirmed cases stand at 9% fatal 91% recovered. When hospitals are overrun beyond capacity and people are left to fend for themselves, which will happen in most countries, that ratio is going to change by quite a lot 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Mung

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Where can we buy N95 facemasks?

Because according to experts the surgical masks are almost useless against an airborne virus.

Today I asked in a hospital for the masks. The doctor told me he gets one mask per day. And he told me even high risk patients can't get any masks.

So much about protecting ourselves.

I guess the only "bright side" about this is that in many other countries the situation is not better.

If it's a serious question, Lazada have some knock-off N95's (with replica 3M respirators) that seem effective and not outrageously effective.

[Millcx]

5 hours ago, DLock said:

And if it hits 4% death rate as it is now, that will be 16,000 deaths...

 

Not bad for "all under control".

Yep ... Spend Spend Spend Dirty Falangs and you will stop the spread 

[Mung]

1 minute ago, Walter Travolta said:

I have tried explaining this to the doom mongers. The virus started in December last year, the borders have remained open until recently, so why isnt Pattaya riddled with this virus already? What you are predicting should already be rife in Pattaya and other highly populated tourist areas. Im not being dismissive or nonchalant, Im trying to view it with an open mind and thought. 

I was in a bar last night and I was saying to my friend that all the fans in bars would add to spreading anything around in the air which one would think would increase the rate of infection, but Pattaya isnt even on the radar for this virus as far as I have seen (no STATISTICS from what I have seen). 

In the last week there has been a correlated sharp increase in confirmed cases across SE Asia, not sure why that is and exactly at the same time, but it's happening 

[Phil Here]

Yet more numbers pulled from the sky

[sambum]

5 hours ago, KhunKenAP said:

Hold On! The General told us in January the situation is 100% under control. 

And The Minister of Health told us it would all be over by Songkran as the hot winds would blow the virus away, and he fully expected "our" Chinese friends to have a vaccine by then?

[Lacrimas]

To the people suggesting to hurry up buying a private health insurance: do you know that if there are no hospital beds available you are going to be rejected anyways, even if you have a very expensive health insurance? It happened to my wife last year during a epidemic flu in Chiang Mai. We visited 5 hospitals and there were no beds available. Only Theppanya hospital (very crappy private one) was available and we had to wait 4 hours before she was admitted.

 

Not considering that insurance companies are not likely to pay in case thousands of people start cashing in because of the outbreak

[cryo]

22 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Where can we buy N95 facemasks?

Because according to experts the surgical masks are almost useless against an airborne virus.

Today I asked in a hospital for the masks. The doctor told me he gets one mask per day. And he told me even high risk patients can't get any masks.

So much about protecting ourselves.

I guess the only "bright side" about this is that in many other countries the situation is not better.

If you do not preform correct surgical procedure for wearing and removing masks they are ineffective (fact) Ask any theater surgeon or nurse. Wearing a mask without the correct procedure gives you confidence but in reality nothing else, but it can prevent you from infecting others to a small degree.

[White Christmas13]

1 hour ago, TheFishman1 said:

I still think the government here is clueless TIT

I am surprised the govt hasn't blamed the FFP for the virus in Thailand yet.

[cryo]

6 minutes ago, Walter Travolta said:

I have tried explaining this to the doom mongers. The virus started in December last year, the borders have remained open until recently, so why isnt Pattaya riddled with this virus already? What you are predicting should already be rife in Pattaya and other highly populated tourist areas. Im not being dismissive or nonchalant, Im trying to view it with an open mind and thought. 

I was in a bar last night and I was saying to my friend that all the fans in bars would add to spreading anything around in the air which one would think would increase the rate of infection, but Pattaya isnt even on the radar for this virus as far as I have seen (no STATISTICS from what I have seen). 

No testing leads to no numbers and we wont go into the lies and loss of face problem.

[aussienam]

5 hours ago, ianezy0 said:

People are also urged to wear a face mask when outside.......

 

Back to this old chestnut again!

Makes sense.  Even if you are not infected.  Most people touch their face several times per hour according to several studies.  If you have a mask then if you touch an infected surface and bring your hand to your face, there is less chance the virus pathogen will get into your mucous membranes as you won't be sliding your fingers under the fabric.  

Masks are not only for mitigating airborne pathogens ejected from lungs (sneezing and coughing most infectious).  

So many surfaces can harbor COVID19 from cross transference such as table tops, drink glasses, cups, plates handled by staff (great community spreaders by their hands), door handles (so many people touch their face after opening doors, trolleys, handled goods, cutlery, etc etc.  

I wear a mask basically because I don't want to kill my elderly parent.  Or walk around asymptomatically killing other elderly and frail people.  Others won't give a damn. 

[ivor bigun]

6 minutes ago, Walter Travolta said:

I have tried explaining this to the doom mongers. The virus started in December last year, the borders have remained open until recently, so why isnt Pattaya riddled with this virus already? What you are predicting should already be rife in Pattaya and other highly populated tourist areas. Im not being dismissive or nonchalant, Im trying to view it with an open mind and thought. 

I was in a bar last night and I was saying to my friend that all the fans in bars would add to spreading anything around in the air which one would think would increase the rate of infection, but Pattaya isnt even on the radar for this virus as far as I have seen (no STATISTICS from what I have seen). 

Funny i was thinking this ,nobody seems to know anyone who has it in Pattaya ,yet we had thousands of Chinese walking the streets , anyway if this carries on for a very long time ,the world as we know it will collapse ,just watch Bloomberg ,the economy everywhere is going down the drain ,My daughter earns quite a lot of money from her business ,everyone has cancelled ,this is a very busy time for her ,but she has not taken a penny and she is not alone ,

[steve73]

11 minutes ago, cryo said:

Official estimates rang from (0.1% age 1-20) (1% age 20-40) (1.8% 40-50) (2.5% 50-60) (3.5% 60-70) (13.6% 70-upover). Average mortality rate across all a age groups is approx. 1% of suspected infected cases (calculated infection rate not actual tested) These are China's figures up to date and are changing daily.

If it's as infectious (and persistent) as many are claiming it will be almost impossible to avoid exposure at some point, unless you're a hermit - and that's before it mutates.

 

So I'd expect almost everyone on the planet to get exposed at some point. (Germany suggesting 60-70%)

How many of those will then show any symptoms?

How many will themselves, showing symptoms or otherwise (the so-called "super-spreaders") be carrying the virus sufficient to infect others?

How many with symptoms will get seriously ill? (with or without other respiratory problems)

How many of those will die (prematurely) as a direct result?

 

 

Unless some of these percentages are very low there will be a very high death toll. 

 

[cryo]

8 minutes ago, Mung said:

1% of suspected infected cases (calculated infection rate not actual tested)

 

7 minutes ago, sambum said:

And The Minister of Health told us it would all be over by Songkran as the hot winds would blow the virus away, and he fully expected "our" Chinese friends to have a vaccine by then?

You are not disputing his shamans answers are you and he paid for the amulet as well !!!!

[pathologix]

Maybe they haven't done a magnificent job at dealing with this catastrophe, but I think the government deserves a bit of a break. This is an unprecedented event in modern history, and nobody really knows what to do. No government in the world has done an amazing job at controlling the outbreak or its economic impacts, including "advanced" governments like Japan, UK, US, France, etc. That's not to say that the Thai government doesn't deserve criticism for its many missteps. But it also deserves some empathy given the novel circumstances. It seems a bit silly to lambast leaders for saying, 2 months ago, that things were relatively under control (as were leaders everywhere else). At that point, they honestly thought that to be true. As did numerous epidemiologists who know way more about disease spread than any of us (go read interviews with virologists in late-January stories in the New York Times, Harvard Gazette, New York Magazine, etc).  

[aussienam]

10 minutes ago, Walter Travolta said:

I have tried explaining this to the doom mongers. The virus started in December last year, the borders have remained open until recently, so why isnt Pattaya riddled with this virus already? What you are predicting should already be rife in Pattaya and other highly populated tourist areas. Im not being dismissive or nonchalant, Im trying to view it with an open mind and thought. 

I was in a bar last night and I was saying to my friend that all the fans in bars would add to spreading anything around in the air which one would think would increase the rate of infection, but Pattaya isnt even on the radar for this virus as far as I have seen (no STATISTICS from what I have seen). 

I doubt airborne pathogens being blown around by a fan have a chance of getting into your lungs, so you have a point.  The PPM ratio would be extremely small. Hence why there is social distancing and crowd restrictions, because confined spaces and anywhere that causes you to breath in quantities of the lungs of infected persons increases your chances.  Yes open air bars would help circulate air, but infected persons who touch tables, cough or sneeze near you will be a good way to transfer the virus.  Pattaya has been lucky.  But it is not teflon coated.  It will happen.  And close person to person contact is very common as we know.  Would not be nice to see retirees and unwell people in general dropping dead because they were being dismissive that's all.  

[dallen52]

5 hours ago, smiggley said:

16000 deaths should be acceptable after all that is less than the current road deaths.

So 44 deaths a day due to coronavirus. 

That's going to bring the road toll down a few % points.

Nice one ...

[sandyf]

10 minutes ago, Phil Here said:

Yet more numbers pulled from the sky

Appears to be trend.

 

Coronavirus: Chilling scientific paper upends Trump and Johnson's responses

Finally, if the British government quickly went all-out to suppress viral spread – aiming to reverse epidemic growth and reduce the case load to a low level – then the number of dead in the country could drop to below 20,000. To do this, the researchers said, Britain would have to enforce social distancing for the entire population, isolate all cases, demand quarantines of entire households where anyone is sick, and close all schools and universities – and do this not for weeks but for 12 to 18 months, until a vaccine is available.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-us-uk-trump-boris-johnson-covid-19-response-science-paper-a9407946.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=INDNEWS%2318032020&utm_term=IND_Headlines_Masterlist_CDP

 

[morrobay]

6 minutes ago, Walter Travolta said:

I have tried explaining this to the doom mongers. The virus started in December last year, the borders have remained open until recently, so why isnt Pattaya riddled with this virus already? What you are predicting should already be rife in Pattaya and other highly populated tourist areas. Im not being dismissive or nonchalant, Im trying to view it with an open mind and thought. 

I was in a bar last night and I was saying to my friend that all the fans in bars would add to spreading anything around in the air which one would think would increase the rate of infection, but Pattaya isnt even on the radar for this virus as far as I have seen (no STATISTICS from what I have seen). 

That's right the smoky bars and also all the Thai service and transportation people ,many of which smoke and unhealthy, who were in close contact with Chinese and Koreans for months. Pattaya by construction should be full of cases. 

[Mikeasq60]

Do people realize China has resumed normal activities while the rest of the world is suffering? Whats going on here.

[Bangkok Barry]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The first scenario, which health officials believe is most likely, is that up to 400,000 people will become infected with the virus by the end of 2020

Health officials in Thailand have forecast that at least 400,000 people may be diagnosed with the coronavirus, COVID-19, by the end of next year.

So which is it? 2010 or 2021? More brilliant journalism.

[cryo]

1 minute ago, Mikeasq60 said:

Do people realize China has resumed normal activities while the rest of the world is suffering? Whats going on here.

Government running out of options and money. Virus control is already known to seriously seesaw with more infections and closedown by using lock down as was shown in the Spanish flue epidemic but lessons are never learnt when commerce come first.

[freethinker]

But hasn't Thailand reported only like 100 cases or so? lmao what a JOKE country. 

[Zack61]

400,000 translates to 0.6% of the population. Many countries are predicting 20 to 60%. Why the huge discrepancy? If these figures could be used in Thailand then 400,000 is the possible death toll at the top level assuming a 1% mortality rate. 

400,000 may be the number of diagnosed victims but the real number will be much more than that. 

[Mikeasq60]

1 minute ago, cryo said:

Government running out of options and money. Virus control is already known to seriously seesaw with more infections and closedown by using lock down as was shown in the Spanish flue epidemic but lessons are never learnt when commerce come first.

Ponder this in the past 20 years think of all of the bloody pandemics, aids, flu's you name it. Any countries ever lock down because of it, NO! Just a little odd that with President Trump in office everyone is loosing their minds.

[christophe75]

6 minutes ago, Mikeasq60 said:

Ponder this in the past 20 years think of all of the bloody pandemics, aids, flu's you name it. Any countries ever lock down because of it, NO! Just a little odd that with President Trump in office everyone is loosing their minds.

 

It's indeed a mass hysteria.

 

And worse. We are inside the short tale of Hans Christian Andersen : The Emperor's New Clothes.

 

We start to see the reality (a big flu, nothing else)... the emperor is naked... but the people can only doubledown in madness, surrounded by demented so-called "specialists"... Politicians become victims and start to
overbid themselves, afraid to be "different", afraid of their own shadows, afraid to be out of fashion.

 

"This country has shut down. So we need to do the same"

"Why ?"

"Because ! And I will tell you : we need to do more !"

"Why ?"

"Because !"

Edited March 18, 2020 by christophe75

[JulesMad]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

by the end of next year.

That is December 2021, 21 months from now.... The world does not know what will happen tomorrow or next week, but Thai officials (mind you, not even 'experts'!) know...

[KhaoYai]

5 hours ago, DLock said:

And if it hits 4% death rate as it is now, that will be 16,000 deaths...

 

Not bad for "all under control".

To be fair, the percentage of death rates in all countries is actually likely to be far less. There are a significant number of people that for various reasons are not tested and many of them will be infected. The death rate cannot be accurately stated unless everyone is tested and those that are mildy ill, report it.

[Kwasaki]

I miss Brexit now.