Officials forecast 400,000 COVID-19 cases in Thailand

[miamiman123]

Thailand stats???? Naah

[Megasin1]

If it possible to get a medical certificate then there is at least one positive, you would know you were clear when you entered Thailand, but where are these supposed tourists coming from? As to their infection model, poppycock.its more like 4m in a year from now. There has also been nothing to suggest this is seasonal it's a constant spreader what will give the most interesting statistics is when a country fully returns to normality and we see what happens. UK is expecting a 3 month close down period and that is a minimum. And as a final comment when it all goes really bad in Thailand all farangs should be prepared to be interned. You can already see the direction that Thailand is taking and unfortunately if you are still there you have left it too late.

[sahibji]

these are some frightening figures. hope it does not come to that.

[Chiang Mai Bill]

4 hours ago, ParkerN said:

Too many.

 

Still, nice to see a realistic number in the context of TL. So much for goverment hopes of keeping the real number a state secret. 15 cases my sweet bippy.

 

 

 

By the END or NEXT YEAR!!!

 

''Health officials in Thailand have forecast that at least 400,000 people may be diagnosed with the coronavirus, COVID-19, by the end of next year.''

[SiSePuede419]

400,000?

 

Thailand has a population of 69,000,000.

 

If 60-70% of people get COVID-19 eventually, that's 41 to 48 million cases.

 

 

[Grumpy John]

PProbably 400.000 before Christmas Is my guess.   I'd take a 10.000 baht wager on that...but as we all know gambling is illegal and I  do not want to incur the wrath of the mods or spend part of my retirement in gaol.  But I  would be willing to use 10.000 baht to assist the unmarried mothers of Phitsanulok province in an uplifting  manner....... ????

[Chiang Mai Bill]

2 minutes ago, sahibji said:

these are some frightening figures. hope it does not come to that.

What? ''Frightening"?

 

You're not reading the figures from the rest of the world NOW -- never mind the ''end of next year''!

[malibukid]

meanwhile the beaches are crowded Florida for spring break.  the kids don't get it.  

[kensisaket]

Just wondering if the person writing this article knows what "the end of next year" means. 

[Xonax]

4 hours ago, dukeandduke said:

Wonderful.  "Officials" say this.  As opposed to all of the doctors who say otherwise, unless you're sick, a health care worker, etc.

A correctly used mask protects against 95% of the dangerous particles including virus and should definitely be worn in crowded places like buses, trains, airplanes etc.!  Would you prefer to spend time in a crowded room with 20 Covid-19 infected people or with just 1 Covid-19 infected person?

I can´t believe why any doctor would claim otherwise.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Xonax

[Greenie]

4 hours ago, dukeandduke said:

Wonderful.  "Officials" say this.  As opposed to all of the doctors who say otherwise, unless you're sick, a health care worker, etc.

 

That is not 100% accurate. Christian Drosten who is a well known virologist said recently (I read about that today) that wearing if face masks can be a valid measure if it is done by many. It will not prevent you from getting the virus but it lowers the probability of those who have it to spread it. He said for cultural reasons (!) he thinks that is almost impossible to achieve in the western world.

 

 

 

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, Xonax said:

A correctly used mask protects against 95% of the dangerous particles including virus and should definitely be worn in crowded places like buses, trains, airplanes etc.!  Would you prefer to spend time in a crowded room with 20 Covid-19 infected people or with just 1 Covid-19 infected person?

You're talking about the respirator masks but most people aren't not wearing that variety.

 

Issues with them --

Expensive

Should be custom fitted, the public generally doesn't do that

At least half the people don't wear them properly

They restrict breathing and are not practical to wear for long periods of time

For people with breathing issues like asthmatics they are not practical to wear at all

[simtemple]

5 hours ago, VocalNeal said:

I think it is safe to say that we will all get it in one from or another. Eventually. just like any other strain of flu.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

[ParkerN]

5 hours ago, KhunKenAP said:

Hold On! The General told us in January the situation is 100% under control. 

The General lied.

 

Which can't possibly come as a surprise.

Edited March 18, 2020 by ParkerN

[justin case]

from 100% under control (lol) to 400.000 cases ... all because of mr. dirty farang ?

 

or doing NOTHING AT ALL for 3 months ???

[mrmicbkktxl]

5 hours ago, ParkerN said:

Too many.

 

Still, nice to see a realistic number in the context of TL. So much for goverment hopes of keeping the real number a state secret. 15 cases my sweet bippy.

 

 

Not sure if 400000 is realistic,in Germany they talk about  50-60 million people who probably catch the virus

[cryo]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Definitely not. That's not how most governments roll.

 

However, I think people should be seeing this as good news in the sense that the authorities here are FINALLY facing the seriousness of this.

 

But it would have been much better news if they had done that months ago.

 

It's a quite similar situation to the USA but with many specific differences as well. 

Still not facing up to reality as there appears to be a problem with all Government figures missing a number of zeros. The Thai Government has always had a problem with zeros just look at the tourist forecasts although that's an extra zeros problem. I worry for the Thai population as once the latest measure's begin to take effect lots of infected people from the city's will head home to older relatives ????

Edited March 18, 2020 by cryo

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, mrmicbkktxl said:

Not sure if 400000 is realistic,in Germany they talk about  50-60 million people who probably catch the virus

Ouch. And that's a 1st-world country with a 1st-world health system.

 

Oh dear.

 

The general comments from posters does not create a positive impression. Still, the soldiers'll all be OK so not to worry.

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, justin case said:

from 100% under control (lol) to 400.000 cases ... all because of mr. dirty farang ?

 

or doing NOTHING AT ALL for 3 months ???

 

Trick question?

 

 

[OneMoreFarang]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

People are also urged to wear a face mask

Where can we buy N95 facemasks?

Because according to experts the surgical masks are almost useless against an airborne virus.

Today I asked in a hospital for the masks. The doctor told me he gets one mask per day. And he told me even high risk patients can't get any masks.

So much about protecting ourselves.

I guess the only "bright side" about this is that in many other countries the situation is not better.

[time2093]

With these kind of forecast numbers. I dont think that any bars and other entertainment places will be open after April 1, probably for the rest of the year.

[Nick33]

always look on the bright side of life...

[Nanaplaza666]

5 hours ago, ParkerN said:

Too many.

 

Still, nice to see a realistic number in the context of TL. So much for goverment hopes of keeping the real number a state secret. 15 cases my sweet bippy.

 

 

It's nice to hear a higher nr then the 40 cases wich they held on to for a long time , but 400.000 cases by the end of next year is still a bit low i think . They calculate this by the rate it's going up with right now but you can count on this rate going up much faster soon .

[White Christmas13]

4 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

but but but the experts on this forum said this would not happen in Thailand.

 

i was specificity assured this would not happen. 

 

something about it being too hot. 

 

WEAR A MASK

Rubbish

[cryo]

2 hours ago, steve73 said:

Definitely dodgy....

 

5% of (the worst case estimate of) 10 million is 500,000.  

Official estimates rang from (0.1% age 1-20) (1% age 20-40) (1.8% 40-50) (2.5% 50-60) (3.5% 60-70) (13.6% 70-upover). Average mortality rate across all a age groups is approx. 1% of suspected infected cases (calculated infection rate not actual tested) These are China's figures up to date and are changing daily.

[JCP108]

I guess if we accept the basis of the model and want to see if we have a better, or worse, outcome here, use the infection rate average that is happening elsewhere where there is such data. Isn't that such that each infected person is infecting between 2 and 3 other people?

[cryo]

10 minutes ago, Nick33 said:

always look on the bright side of life...

Didn't this Monty python guy just die?

[Mung]

5 hours ago, VocalNeal said:

I think it is safe to say that we will all get it in one from or another. Eventually. just like any other strain of flu.

I'm 32 and I've never actually had the flu before. 
You can only get CIOVID from somebody else, so if you aren't around people until a vaccine is made, you stand a good chance of not getting it. If you're really quite elderly and or weak, that might be an idea 

[Jack Mountain]

April 1st is early this year ....

[Bangkokianbaba]

"by the end of next year" (?)????