Sharp increase in Covid-19 cases in Thai provinces 'cause for concern'

[Puchaiyank]

1 hour ago, from the home of CC said:

yea, about the same foresight as the Americans..

It always comes back to the Americans...doesn't it?  What is your source of animus with America?

[from the home of CC]

9 minutes ago, Puchaiyank said:

It always comes back to the Americans...doesn't it?  What is your source of animus with America?

what's up with all the animus with the Thais? Maybe I just don't like finger pointing from houses that just ain't that perfect to be pointing out imperfections with others..

Edited March 22, 2020 by from the home of CC

[tgw]

no testing... no cases...

testing... new cases...

surprise... no surprise?

Edited March 22, 2020 by tgw

[tgw]

20 minutes ago, Tropicalevo said:

and that is the really worrying bit because they will not have a clue what to do.

still better than whatever else would be likely to happen as an alternative

[White Christmas13]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

This thread has not helped my positive, hopeful outlook at all.

Seems the culling will continue until the elderly and weak have all expired.

Buddhist funeral ceremonies and daily cremations at your local temple soon.

Peace 

 

 

 

Ever thought about becoming a monk

peace

[Puchaiyank]

1 hour ago, from the home of CC said:

what's up with all the animus with the Thais? Maybe I just don't like finger pointing from houses that just ain't that perfect to be pointing out imperfections with others..

The truth shall set you free!  ????

[Happy Grumpy]

6 hours ago, CLW said:

Pro-active and preventive thinking hardly to be found here...

 

Bus station Mor Chit was packed today.

 

 

 

How else are they supposed to go home after losing their 400thb per day jobs? 

 

 

By helicopter, like you?

[GeoMill]

6 hours ago, Susco said:

I hate to say it, but you have no idea what your are talking about.

 

The mortality rate of covid-19 is about 1%, of the people that get infected, which is so far in the worst case in the world 0.5% of the population (San Marino) , so how would it be possible for any country to have 20% of their population die of the virus?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/what-is-coronavirus-and-what-is-the-mortality-rate

What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Love how you're quoting a quote that says its 'probably' 1%, whereas in the same quote the WHO says 3,4%. Let's stick with the WHO for now, who has access to way more stats, than Chris Whitty. A Brit who has probably not been anywere near China for the past months. 

[Mung]

Someone I know in Loei says it's on their doorstep now, apparently linked to the Muay Thai match 

[Soikhaonoiken]

Did They really think this wouldn't happen, with the closure of city entertainment venues, the virus was surely to be carried to the provinces when the people returned, doesn't take a scientist to work that out. 

[jacob29]

23 minutes ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

Did They really think this wouldn't happen, with the closure of city entertainment venues, the virus was surely to be carried to the provinces when the people returned, doesn't take a scientist to work that out. 

Well.. I guess it is one way to get the infection count in Bangkok down 

[Lingba]

8 hours ago, Just1Voice said:

Hate to say it, and would hate to see it, but I have a feeling Thailand may lose one-fifth of their population before this is through, mostly because of their own ignorance. 

and I hate to agree with you but it's looking more and more like you are correct....they will never learn

[bkkcanuck8]

8 hours ago, Susco said:

I hate to say it, but you have no idea what your are talking about.

 

The mortality rate of covid-19 is about 1%, of the people that get infected, which is so far in the worst case in the world 0.5% of the population (San Marino) , so how would it be possible for any country to have 20% of their population die of the virus?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/what-is-coronavirus-and-what-is-the-mortality-rate

What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Actually the 3%ish number was a more recent number calculated using Chinese data (I believe it was mostly Chinese data) on a CFR basis (i.e. after the fact case open -> closed) basis.  The CFR for Wuhan is over 5% (health system collapse).  Earlier it was estimated to be 2.2% during the outbreak (you cannot accurately calculate during an outbreak since the simple formula overstates the numerator of the equation by an order of magnitude.  Of course it is still ongoing and may change dramatically but you would need to go back and test everyone in a region for antibodies.  It also varies widely depending on the whether it is primarily L or S type of the virus.

 

In NY state they are stating hospitalization (i.e. higher severity cases) sits around 19%.  If the health system is overwhelmed there is a lack of ventilators (significant shortage of) and a much higher percentage of people die from lack of oxygen.

 

Some people are assuming an unlimited healthcare system to be able to deal with cases and thus keep the CFR low, but healthcare has rather significant limits - and once it is overwhelmed then you basically end up with death panels deciding who has the best chance of surviving and ranking everyone chances then drawing a big line through the chart and dropping everyone below it.  Italy has started this... they are effectively dropping everyone over the age of 60 below the line... but as the system becomes overwhelmed that line may have to change lower that age or exclude people from treatment if they have hypertension or diabetes.

 

There is also a widespread shortage of PPE (protective equipment) happening right now, and to be quite honest - no doctor or nurse should enter a room without it.   It is effectively equivalent to running out in the middle of the street to save someone with a gunshot wound in the middle of a big battle... the end result is you will more than likely become a victim and while it is heroic... you won't be around to save others that need help.

Edited March 22, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[SkyFax]

8 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Pure Pandemonium, and chaos will surely ensue.....oh how I hope I am wrong.  After 35 years between the military, Law Enforcement, and the medical field, this does not bode well.  Stay safe folks.  Time for me to go into my self imposed lock down here in BKK.  

I have no idea how many MoChit-ers might be positive / asymptomatic but the same was said of the pandemonium that would ensue after Thais returning from Korea but 

 

240 Thais who returned from South Korea test negative for Covid-19

Of the Thais who returned from South Korea, 240 have been allowed to return to their homes after they tested negative for new coronavirus or Covid-19, Admiral Prachachart Sirisawat, Royal Thai Navy spokesman, said on Friday (March 13).

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30384061

 

[Chazar]

7 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

The Mrs says that according to Thai news, those crowds at Mo Chit bus station were mostly Burmese, Laos and Khmers heading for the border towns to return home

and   were  all the drivers  too?

[faraday]

7 hours ago, blackcab said:

 

Ecclesiastes 8:15: Then I commended mirth, because a man hath no better thing under the sun, than to eat, and to drink, and to be merry

 

Isaiah 22:13: Let us eat and drink; for tomorrow we shall die

Thank you Padre.

 

*Smile emoji*

 

Three cases in Udon, & one allegedly in the next soi!!

 

 

[cornishcarlos]

20 minutes ago, faraday said:

Three cases in Udon, & one allegedly in the next soi!!

 

 

Be careful of the "allegedlys"...

My wife is an "allegedly" when there is absolutely nothing wrong with her, she just understands the concept of social distancing and self isolation..

Thais love a good gossip ????

[Destiny1990]

I wonder exactly when will the heat of the sun clear this up or ?

[Grumpy John]

I don't think the death rate percentage can be locked in cement.  It will depend on the intensity of the Wohan China virus attack in each area or province and the medical teams in place to deal with it.  Whenever the wife and I are in Mueang Phitsanulok she usually visits the government hospital to see sick friends and family.  Up in the ICU on any visit there is usually one or 2 beds free.   That tells me if things get out of hand anyone with serious complications from the Wohan China virus had better be the first or second diagnosed as there are unlikely to be any more ICU beds for other victims!

[martin3]

8 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Just spoke to a friend up in Udon. He indicated that as people have arrived back in the village he lives in that it's been one party after another.  Only concern folks have is where the money will come from as they move forward. All eating in large groups and planning welcome home parties for the ones yet to return. His view is that government wanted this to spread and decrease the population.  He said that no one is telling them anything. He feels like a mushroom in the dark.  His son lives here in Bangkok with his thai wife and works at the US embassy. His son told him they have been advised to stay off all public transport, drive there own cars, and stay away from crowds or any groups of people. His son believes that there will be a big explosion in numbers due to the transport of all people over this past weekend to the north. He is pretty worried as no one seems to care about this virus.

I could be completely wrong,but have a feeling by shutting everything down they knew most would have no choice in returning back to the villages,this in fact will probably help Bangkok recover faster and in turn be ready to accept tourists sooner,the down side is,The villagers are just cannon fodder,The powers to be could give a s...t about the people that really keep the country running on their cheap labour...sad.

[lostmebike]

9 hours ago, edwinchester said:

Here in the village there are 2 big parties going on near us right now. Loads of tables at both and the usual communal plates of food in the middle of each.

We declined to attend.

Oh yeh - social distancing in the villages is an impossible concept. 

 

In our village, cv19 is just another thing to get together and chat about. They continue to enter each other's houses at will, eat, drink, and appear to singing and shouting about the new topic of the day.

 

Here, the get togethers here haven't decreased as social distancing advises, quite the opposite, and judging by the weekend just gone, they've actually increased. 

[Aussie999]

13 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

I wonder exactly when will the heat of the sun clear this up or ?

Move on son, there is no proof the heat, or the sun, will clear it up, just look how it is spreading in warmer, sunny, locations, it takes a lot more heat, than humans can handle, to kill a virus, it "may" slow down the infection rate, but as of today, there is no evidence that it will affect Covid-19.

https://www.live5news.com/2020/03/20/fact-or-fiction-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-

[Destiny1990]

2 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

Move on son, there is no proof the heat, or the sun, will clear it up, just look how it is spreading in warmer, sunny, locations, it takes a lot more heat, than humans can handle, to kill a virus, it "may" slow down the infection rate, but as of today, there is no evidence that it will affect Covid-19.

https://www.live5news.com/2020/03/20/fact-or-fiction-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-

Oh so what they said was fake news !

[Aussie999]

1 minute ago, Destiny1990 said:

Oh so what they said was fake news !

Well, who said it... I gave a link.

[Yadon Toploy]

9 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

The Mrs says that according to Thai news, those crowds at Mo Chit bus station were mostly Burmese, Laos and Khmers heading for the border towns to return home

The crowds at the local market in Laem Chabang last night were ALL Thais. 

 

They are not getting the joke here, and the virus is going to decimate the population. 

 

Yes, I used that word on purpose. 

[cardinalblue]

Those out of work in bkk should shelter in place and not go home to provinces...

 

but culturally....they would rather die than not go home...which actually if they think about it would keep their relatives alive in the provinces..

 

they are going to take their families down with them...the isaan provinces are filled with old people

Edited March 23, 2020 by cardinalblue

[Curt1591]

Who didn't see this coming !?!

[Peterw42]

I am not understanding the argument that the virus cant live in temps over 27 Celsius, Heat kills it etc

IT THRIVES IN A HUMAN BODY THAT IS 37 DEGREES.

[Tayaout]

8 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

I am not understanding the argument that the virus cant live in temps over 27 Celsius, Heat kills it etc

IT THRIVES IN A HUMAN BODY THAT IS 37 DEGREES.

Can you thrive at 37C in the middle of a desert with no food and water? 

 

The theory is just that at higher temperature the virus inactivate faster thus slowing down it's spread.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Tayaout

[Aussie999]

7 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

I am not understanding the argument that the virus cant live in temps over 27 Celsius, Heat kills it etc

IT THRIVES IN A HUMAN BODY THAT IS 37 DEGREES.

You must forgive those that do not think, but will still argue their point, no matter how wrong, how much evidence is put forward.