https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/07/health/coronavirus-mutations-analysis/index.html

 

A slightly different view on mutation for interest.

6 minutes ago, Puchaiyank said:

Americans are behind all this chaos...they should get their house in order before pointing fingers at China and Thailand...????

And pray tell how is America behind this Virus Chaos......you don't mean the Donald was a super spreader of this.......tell me your joking or just plain old....well...I can not use the right term without being banned again....

How this statistic works???? if you test only the ones that have strong symptoms, and then calculate death ratio this way, it will always give you high % comparing to other places where tests were done on vast amount of the population where most were not exhibiting any symptoms.

That way you catch the the ones infected that will not exhibit much symptom, hence your ratio is completely different.

Then if you calculate death ratio taking only the one already in intensive care, figure will be a lot worst.

May be it is time to learn how to compare what is comparable and learn how to make interpretation when ground for testing are so, so different.

 

Then, where this Italian strain comes from??? A Thai discovery????

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

The Iranian and Italian Zirus genome is different than the genome that was found in China. The Iran and the Italy genome was modified to fit those two countries because the genomes for these two groups is almost identical.

That suggests it was man made, and did not originate in China because they were not affected by that strain.

I would ask how does the Thai MD know that this new strain is in fact the same as in Italy? 

3 hours ago, Chazar said:

confirmation the dirty Farang brought it here

the chinese didnt do it it was those italians . they are to blame .  i dont buy it..........that the chinese are innocent and the italians are at fault. something is fishy here

56 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

There are no reports that the " strain " of Covid 19, is any different than the original " strain " from Wuhan that was first reported by the Chinese Authorities.

Why, are even these prominent Thais saying, and actually believing, that this Corona Virus is different than that of CHINESE ORIGIN.

Since the Virus touched the shores of European Nations, Thailand has gone to great lengths to try and apportion the whole cause of the Corona Virus upon the Western World.

We have had the insane, and sick public rants of the Health Minister calling Farang Dirty Etc, and now this guy.

Thailand can say whatever it wishes to say about the cause of Corona Virus, but the whole World knows where it originated, and in case the Authorities are reading this post, the Virus originated in CHINA, IN A WET MARKET IN THE CITY OF WUHAN

 

WuFlu it is and always shall be.

34 minutes ago, tropo said:

I don't believe so... I think the reason might be because the virus does not enjoy hot and humid weather.

 

I think this is the reason that Thailand is still miles behind European countries in terms of outbreak severity. They are certainly not doing better due to any effort they've made as their response has been pathetic so far. Thailand has also had more exposure to China than most of all other countries.

 

https://www.sott.net/article/431030-New-study-says-high-temperature-and-high-relative-humidity-significantly-reduce-spread-of-COVID-19

 

Let's look at the situation among its tropical neighbours:

 

Thailand: 599 cases, 1 death

 

Indonesia: 514 cases, 48 deaths

Malaysia: 1306 cases, 10 deaths

Singapore: 455 cases, 2 deaths

Philippines: 380 cases, 25 deaths

Brunei: 88 cases, 0 deaths

Cambodia 84 cases, 0 deaths

Vietnam 113 caes, 0 deaths

 

Laos and Burma statistics were unavailable... https://ncov2019.live/data?fbclid=IwAR3I1npxj7wavdT6EzOEKTg1hC6t5onF3q-tE1GrFjKEalryCEn0OIyB4XQ

 

Apart from Singapore the numbers are quite low, and even in Singapore the death rate is low.

 

Another theory I had about Thailand, although it might seem trivial... they eat truck loads of raw vegetables, so they may have a stronger immune system than their European counterparts.

 

 

Sadly Burma, Cambodia and Laos have some nasty stats heading their way after the exodus of foreign migrant workers before the borders closed at the weekend. So do the Thai villages.  Spending long hours crammed into buses must create ideal conditions for transmission. In village houses in all four countries people tend to live at close quarters and all sleep on the floor together.  Relatives coming back from the cities will add to the crowding. In Thai villages there are a disproportion number of senior citizens who are greater risk, compared to the cities. 

 

I am not sure how much thought went into this but it could probably have been done better to avoid the exodus. It seems likely that the situation in Thai provinces could overtake Bangkok within a month, not to mention the neighbouring countries that decline to provide information. The number of doctors and hospital beds per million of population in the provinces is much less than in Bangkok and government doctors tend to moonlight in private clinics.  There is usually a clinic or say a 40 bed basic hospital without isolation rooms in tambons and amphurs have hospitals with some isolation rooms but not really set up for infectious disease.  That will place huge pressure on government hospitals in provincial capitals which are likely to be overwhelmed within a few days of any crisis really stepping up.  With no spare capacity those who are sick will have to stay home and infect all in their households who will still be going out and infecting other households. 

Edited March 23, 20206 yr by Dogmatix

im in phillipines in small town . we have been on lockdown for some days now. no booze and you cant swim in the ocean.  its that extreme.  but the thais seem to be doing it differently 

The worrying thing is that the genome of the Wuhan virus was already sequenced a month ago, and all the work being done on developing a vaccine is based on that genome. If and when they have a vaccine for that virus, will it also work against the new strains? From what I've read of the flu virus, no it won't.

51 minutes ago, PerkinsCuthbert said:

You would think a supposed 'leading Thai doctor' would have both a better grasp of facts as opposed to hearsay, and would not be fear-mongering in this way.

Why would you think that?

A post in which the quoted content had been altered has been removed. 

Wow so many here still in denial.... there are more than 2 strains already and ALL are mutating and going to..... either they become more or less deadly and viral. With millions infected and continuing to be the odds AND risks of mutation going either or BOTH ways increases....  its going to get real ugly as, if it wasnt already. 

Edited March 23, 20206 yr by englishoak

This is BS. There is zero scientific evidence of a more virulent SARS-CoV-S strain spreading in humans.

1 minute ago, Guderian said:

The worrying thing is that the genome of the Wuhan virus was already sequenced a month ago, and all the work being done on developing a vaccine is based on that genome. If and when they have a vaccine for that virus, will it also work against the new strains? From what I've read of the flu virus, no it won't.

It is true of flu but the different strains are very different from each other.  On the other hand there are vaccines for some other RNA pathogens like small pox and polio that have remained effective for decades with no change to the formulations.  Viruses also often mutate to less severe forms.  If they immobilise or kill all their hosts they can't spread to other hosts so easily,

2 minutes ago, expat1010 said:

This is BS. There is zero scientific evidence of a more virulent SARS-CoV-S strain spreading in humans.

 

Unfortunately your one of those in denial. its already happened. 

There is however some very interesting news being reported outside of Thailand regarding the current power structures within Thailand emanating from the Thai people themselves. The prolitariate is stirring

2 hours ago, frodo77 said:

This doctor should be jailed for fear-mongering.

Is n't that what the local police said to the doctor in Wuhan that tried to raise the alarm ?

 

Even if he is wrong about a new strain of the virus, at least he might wake some members of the government out of their complacency.

As simple it can be: italy reacted too late with everything.  And yes, italy is quite similar to thais. Sanuk first, dolce vita first. So why not get the "iralian strain" into thailand, imported from a thai! Isn't that logic?

2 minutes ago, englishoak said:

 

Unfortunately your one of those in denial. its already happened. 

OK show me the article in the mainstream scientific literature. 

2 hours ago, timendres said:

I was not aware of this.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

I read that doctors have been noticing a uptake of old people dying in Lombardy Italy since November with the same symptoms of CD19. That’s before the virus hit Wuhan in mid December. A lot we not aware. 

4 minutes ago, englishoak said:

 

Unfortunately your one of those in denial. its already happened. 

Unfortunately you are completely wrong. The chinese research postulating two strains, one more violent than the other has been comprehensively debunked.

 

" A paper published by Lu Jian of Peking University and colleagues on 3 March in the journal National Science Review analyzed 103 virus genomes and argued that they fell into one of two distinct types, named S and L, distinguished by two mutations. Because 70% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes belong to L, the newer type, the authors concluded that virus has evolved to become more aggressive and to spread faster.

But they lack evidence, Rambaut says. “What they’ve done is basically seen these two branches and said, ‘That one is bigger, [so that virus] must be more virulent or more transmissible,’” he says. However, just because a virus is exported and leads to a large outbreak elsewhere does not mean it is behaving differently: “One of these lineages is going to be bigger than the other just by chance.” Some researchers have called for the paper to be retracted. “The claims made in it are clearly unfounded and risk spreading dangerous misinformation at a crucial time in the outbreak,” four scientists at the University of Glasgow wrote in a response published on www.virological.org."

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret

There is no foundation to such claims. Italy has the 2nd oldest population in the world after Japan and therefore there are so many deaths. Doctor should be put in isolation, since he didn't has any proof of what he's talking about

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

I read that doctors have been noticing a uptake of old people dying in Lombardy Italy since November with the same symptoms of CD19. That’s before the virus hit Wuhan in mid December. A lot we not aware. 

read where? link please.

Just now, expat1010 said:

OK show me the article in the mainstream scientific literature. 

Mainstream literature is 2 - 3 months late in publishing... go read some white papers for yourself, im sure you know how to research, im not your tutor. 

 

1 minute ago, MasterBaker said:

There is no foundation to such claims. Italy has the 2nd oldest population in the world after Japan and therefore there are so many deaths. Doctor should be put in isolation, since he didn't has any proof of what he's talking about

Germany has an older population than Italy.

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Germany has an older population than Italy.

I was a bit surprised but yes, it does: https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/germany.italy/demographics

1 minute ago, englishoak said:

Mainstream literature is 2 - 3 months late in publishing... go read some white papers for yourself, im sure you know how to research, im not your tutor. 

 

That's a good thing, because you're completely wrong.

 

The Chinese research postulating two strains, one more violent than the other, has been debunked.

 

 "A paper published by Lu Jian of Peking University and colleagues on 3 March in the journal National Science Review analyzed 103 virus genomes and argued that they fell into one of two distinct types, named S and L, distinguished by two mutations. Because 70% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes belong to L, the newer type, the authors concluded that virus has evolved to become more aggressive and to spread faster.

But they lack evidence, Rambaut says. “What they’ve done is basically seen these two branches and said, ‘That one is bigger, [so that virus] must be more virulent or more transmissible,’” he says. However, just because a virus is exported and leads to a large outbreak elsewhere does not mean it is behaving differently: “One of these lineages is going to be bigger than the other just by chance.” Some researchers have called for the paper to be retracted. “The claims made in it are clearly unfounded and risk spreading dangerous misinformation at a crucial time in the outbreak,” four scientists at the University of Glasgow wrote in a response published on www.virological.org."

 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret

 

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

 

Press "Play" in the transmission graph.

Edited March 23, 20206 yr by DrTuner

2 hours ago, newatthis said:

or a Thai coming home from Italy.

 

no way... Thai would never do such thing.