Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, wasabi said: 2 strains is fake news until a trusted health organization reports it. I personally trust the reporting of most western countries. It's not fake news, there are at least 2 strains. The Thai doctor is correct in saying there are two strains, he is not correct in assuming one is more virulent than the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timendres Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 37 minutes ago, PaDavid said: I’ve read the article. Very informative. There are indeed two almost identical strains of Covid-19, the L and S type. But the article concludes there is nothing to suggest either strain is more deadly than the other Correct, but the numbers do suggest that one is more contagious than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, timendres said: Correct, but the numbers do suggest that one is more contagious than the other. No, it is not correct, there aren't two strains with one being more contagious than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThailandRyan Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, Jonathan Swift said: According to this reliable source, newscientist.com, "The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”, says Jones. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other."Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/#ixzz6HVpj7Zto: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/ there is no appreciable difference between "strains" of the virus. It would appear we have a xenophobic Thai doctor on the loose. Is he also gonna deport Farang who don't wear masks? WTH.....the same strain of coffee affects people differently, so just because it gives one the <deleted>s and the other extra energy, someone will say it was slightly different....lets get real.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, Surasak said: We now have a Thai expert, or should that be eggspert, who can distinguish between the strains of Covid-19? It's not so difficult. https://nextstrain.org/ncov?c=clade_membership though it takes a little effort to see the graphs. Top graph. The reported less aggressive S-subtype roughly aligns with the B clade of yellow to red colours. The L-subtype correlates with the A clade of blue, grey, and green. Now look at the map and you see much of Europe is heavily blue. South Korea and Japan is mostly B clade as is the US west coast. The doctor in the OP is the ICU chief and disease expert at Bangkok's Vichaiyut Hospital and and can easily determine the clade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThailandRyan Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Logosone said: No, it is not correct, there aren't two strains with one being more contagious than the other. But....I met identical twin sisters in the bar and one affects me differently then the other.......isn't she more contagious than the other... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiSePuede419 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Bangkok is fueled by cheap laborers from other provinces. Shut down Bangkok and everyone who's not from there goes home to spread it there. Ooops. ???? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said: But....I met identical twin sisters in the bar and one affects me differently then the other.......isn't she more contagious than the other... Have coitus and find out....if you dare..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Farang Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Can't compare them to Japan. Japanese follow rules. If government says don't go out they won't. Has nothing to do with a strain or some concoction of a reason to blame someone else. Keeping your borders open, no social distance and your late response is the reason for the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Garvie Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Logosone said: No, it is not correct, there aren't two strains with one being more contagious than the other. From the article in the New Scientist. ...........The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”, says Jones. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other. “In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged, there’s no evidence it is getting any worse.” The sentiment is echoed by the World Health Organization. It does say that one may be more contagious than the other though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, rabas said: It's not so difficult. https://nextstrain.org/ncov?c=clade_membership though it takes a little effort to see the graphs. Top graph. The reported less aggressive S-subtype roughly aligns with the B clade of yellow to red colours. The L-subtype correlates with the A clade of blue, grey, and green. Now look at the map and you see much of Europe is heavily blue. South Korea and Japan is mostly B clade as is the US west coast. The doctor in the OP is the ICU chief and disease expert at Bangkok's Vichaiyut Hospital and and can easily determine the clade. It has nothing to do with 'aggressiveness', it is pure co-incidence that one strain gets distributed more than the other. Only co-incidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JungleBiker Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 This is what happens when you put pangolin on your pizza! ???? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Just now, Nigel Garvie said: From the article in the New Scientist. ...........The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”, says Jones. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other. “In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged, there’s no evidence it is getting any worse.” The sentiment is echoed by the World Health Organization. It does say that one may be more contagious than the other though. Thanks, now read this article: "A paper published by Lu Jian of Peking University and colleagues on 3 March in the journal National Science Review analyzed 103 virus genomes and argued that they fell into one of two distinct types, named S and L, distinguished by two mutations. Because 70% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes belong to L, the newer type, the authors concluded that virus has evolved to become more aggressive and to spread faster. But they lack evidence, Rambaut says. “What they’ve done is basically seen these two branches and said, ‘That one is bigger, [so that virus] must be more virulent or more transmissible,’” he says. However, just because a virus is exported and leads to a large outbreak elsewhere does not mean it is behaving differently: “One of these lineages is going to be bigger than the other just by chance.” Some researchers have called for the paper to be retracted. “The claims made in it are clearly unfounded and risk spreading dangerous misinformation at a crucial time in the outbreak,” four scientists at the University of Glasgow wrote in a response published on www.virological.org." https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFishman1 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Thailand blame everybody but themselves they should’ve shut down the borders and done things more rapidly now that it’s here I think there’s gonna be a bigger problem. Of course let’s not say anything bad about the Chinese TIT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, The Farang said: Can't compare them to Japan. Japanese follow rules. If government says don't go out they won't. Has nothing to do with a strain or some concoction of a reason to blame someone else. Keeping your borders open, no social distance and your late response is the reason for the spread. Yes, that worked great in the case of the Diamond Princess. One of the biggest stupidities done relating to the virus. No merit in following stupid rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimLuce Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) You see with information traveling the internet so fast I don’t know whether or not to believe a word of this. Because not everything that’s been put out has been true. I really hope this is one of those things here. Please don’t tell me that this GD thing is mutating!!!!???? REALLY?? A new strain??? Edited March 23, 2020 by JimLuce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Logosone said: It has nothing to do with 'aggressiveness', it is pure co-incidence that one strain gets distributed more than the other. Only co-incidence. The aggressiveness was assigned to these clades by the Chinese scientists in their publication, not me. Edited March 23, 2020 by rabas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Just now, rabas said: The aggressiveness was assigned to these clades by the Chinese scientists in ther publication, not me. I know, Dr Lu Jian of Peking University. His paper has been debunked: A paper published by Lu Jian of Peking University and colleagues on 3 March in the journal National Science Review analyzed 103 virus genomes and argued that they fell into one of two distinct types, named S and L, distinguished by two mutations. Because 70% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes belong to L, the newer type, the authors concluded that virus has evolved to become more aggressive and to spread faster. But they lack evidence, Rambaut says. “What they’ve done is basically seen these two branches and said, ‘That one is bigger, [so that virus] must be more virulent or more transmissible,’” he says. However, just because a virus is exported and leads to a large outbreak elsewhere does not mean it is behaving differently: “One of these lineages is going to be bigger than the other just by chance.” Some researchers have called for the paper to be retracted. “The claims made in it are clearly unfounded and risk spreading dangerous misinformation at a crucial time in the outbreak,” four scientists at the University of Glasgow wrote in a response published on www.virological.org. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, JimLuce said: You see with information traveling the internet so fast I don’t know whether or not to believe a word of this. Because not everything that’s been put out has been true. I really hope this is one of those things here. Please don’t tell me that this GD thing is mutating!!!!???? Yes, it's mutating, but you need not worry, no strain is more aggressive, virulent or better at penalties than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post joecoolfrog Posted March 23, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 23, 2020 4 hours ago, DeeMak9 said: Oh my god, the ignorance again here on ThaiVisa ???? It's know for weeks there there are two strains. Yes but to label them Asian and Italian is pure xenophobic bullshxxxt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, dieter1 said: One reason for the extreme mortality rate could be that many people in that area (North Italy ) are not only vulnerable because of other severe diseases (blood presure, diabetics , cancer ...) but the health of big parts of their population is preloaded because of the air pollution. Thats is what they have in common with the Wuhan region in China. (!) There may be other reasons for the high mortality rate in Italy. Italians have something else in common with China too: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/16/the-chinese-workers-who-assemble-designer-bags-in-tuscany The Chinese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Just now, Logosone said: I know, Dr Lu Jian of Peking University. His paper has been debunked: A paper published by Lu Jian of Peking University and colleagues on 3 March in the journal National Science Review analyzed 103 virus genomes and argued that they fell into one of two distinct types, named S and L, distinguished by two mutations. Because 70% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes belong to L, the newer type, the authors concluded that virus has evolved to become more aggressive and to spread faster. But they lack evidence, Rambaut says. “What they’ve done is basically seen these two branches and said, ‘That one is bigger, [so that virus] must be more virulent or more transmissible,’” he says. However, just because a virus is exported and leads to a large outbreak elsewhere does not mean it is behaving differently: “One of these lineages is going to be bigger than the other just by chance.” Some researchers have called for the paper to be retracted. “The claims made in it are clearly unfounded and risk spreading dangerous misinformation at a crucial time in the outbreak,” four scientists at the University of Glasgow wrote in a response published on www.virological.org. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret Read the article long ago when it came out. The discussion on the virological website in not what debunked means in science. It is the initial start of a long discussion that will continue for a long while, possibly years from the look of things. AS far as I see the clads roughly track severity but there are always many factors. Re: the sciencemag writeup, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. We will see in time and a lot more data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, rabas said: Read the article long ago when it came out. The discussion on the virological website in not what debunked means in science. It is the initial start of a long discussion that will continue for a long while, possibly years from the look of things. AS far as I see the clads roughly track severity but there are always many factors. Re: the sciencemag writeup, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. We will see in time and a lot more data. Rambaut's objection that one strain is bound to be predominant, purely by chance and not aggression, seems valid to me. If fellow scientists "have called for the paper to be retracted. “The claims made in it are clearly unfounded and risk spreading dangerous misinformation at a crucial time in the outbreak,” four scientists at the University of Glasgow wrote in a response published on www.virological.org.", that seems a pretty strong endorsement of Rambaut's verdict. Edited March 23, 2020 by Logosone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, Logosone said: Yes, it's mutating, but you need not worry, no strain is more aggressive, virulent or better at penalties than the other. I would love to see some hard evidence, but not media discussion. I do appreciate your posts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, rabas said: I would love to see some hard evidence, but not media discussion. I do appreciate your posts though. "Most genomic changes don’t alter the virus’s behavior, Drosten says. The only way to confirm that a mutation has an effect is to study it in cell cultures or animal models and show, for instance, that it has become better at entering cells or transmitting, he says. And if the virus does change in an important way, it could go either way, making it more or less dangerous. In 2018, Drosten’s group published a paper showing that early in the SARS outbreak of 2002–03, that virus lost a small chunk of its genome, 29 base pairs in one gene. Adding those base pairs back in the lab made the virus much better at replicating in several cell culture models. It might seem strange that a mutation that weakens the virus would become established, but that can happen when it has just entered the human population and isn’t competing with strains lacking the mutation, Drosten says. “Sadly, this new virus doesn’t have that deletion,” he adds." https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret So actually a mutation can work in our favour as well, the virus could become less dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caldera Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 His theory that there's an "Italian" strain that is more deadly than the "Asian" strain is ridiculous, he should be stripped of his credentials immediately. Why COVID-19 appears more deadly in Italy than in South Korea is well understood - South Korea has done proper contact tracing and has thus identified many mild cases that would have remained undetected in Italy. Not only does that lower the case fatality rate significantly, it also helps suppressing the spread by identifying and quarantining (potential) spreaders early on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logosone Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Italians have something else in common with China too: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/16/the-chinese-workers-who-assemble-designer-bags-in-tuscany The Chinese. Yes, Italy has a large Chinese expat contingent. But so do the UK and France, who actually have a larger Chinese expat population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Logosone said: Yes, Italy has a large Chinese expat contingent. But so do the UK and France, who actually have a larger Chinese expat population. Seems to match with the strain paths, https://nextstrain.org/ncov?dmax=2020-01-23&dmin=2020-01-15 . Makes sense if you have trade ties or family ties there would be more air traffic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaamBaht Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 5 hours ago, frodo77 said: This doctor should be jailed for fear-mongering. Exactly. Where is the evidence? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLUBBER Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 4 hours ago, fruitman said: So if you don't know it then it doesn't exist, right? Are you a Murrican? What about googling before you spout nonsense? Are you with the Chinese govt . <deleted> ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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