is Thailand aiming for 'Herd Immunity'?

[Samui Bodoh]

Hi All

 

As the title suggests, I am wondering if Thailand has decided, consciously or unconsciously, that it will follow the 'Herd Immunity' approach in dealing with Corvid-19. Before anyone says otherwise, I am neither a doctor nor an expert; like most of TVF's members, I am just trying to understand what I am seeing in the reaction of the authorities. And, I am a proponent of the philosophical construct that states that an idea does not exist until it has been written down. Finally, I will avoid many/most of the moral issues embedded in these options; honestly I am a born and bred Westerner, but have lived in Asia for decades, so I am not sure where I fit anymore.

 

There are basically four approaches to dealing with a pandemic/infectious disease: do nothing, deny entry/protect your population from catching it, isolate those infected and allow the Health System to deal with the sick, or allow for 'herd Immunity' by permitting the disease to travel widely.

 

The disadvantages of doing nothing are apparent and thus I won't bother to say much. The advantages are equally stark and we have seen actions occurring all over, so i'll leave that one alone as well.

 

A policy of denying access to non-natives/outsiders has a certain appeal; it precludes all the effort required to deal with the disease itself. That said, it is no longer possible to follow this path, even if it were desired.

 

Isolating the sick and providing treatment to them seems like a great policy to follow, but it comes with certain costs and difficulties. First, if you do not have a Health System that is capable of dealing with all the sick people (Thailand does not have tens of thousands of respirators/ventilators nor negative-pressure isolation wards, for example), then this approach simply cannot work. Further, isolating the sick requires massive testing and we have all seen that Thailand simply does not have the capacity to test as much as would be needed for this approach to work effectively. Next, the isolate and test/treat paradigm will require that most economic activity come screeching to a halt for an indefinite amount of time until the testing catches up to reality. How long? There is no firm answer to that, but we have seen several months in China and South Korea, and I suspect that Thailand would need longer due to the culture of disregarding governmental orders that Thais don't agree with (we have all seen the evidence of that). Finally, even with the best of intentions, there will be a certain amount of death when following this approach no matter how effective the response is, and I think we all agree that Thai authorities won't be as effective as China's or S Korea's authorities.

 

Herd Immunity. What is 'Herd Immunity'? I asked Google:

 

"...the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination..."

"the level of vaccination needed to achieve herd immunity varies by disease but ranges from 83 to 94 percent"

 

Have the Thai authorities decided, consciously or unconsciously, to aim for that outcome? The decision(s) to not close borders, to not limit people (mainly Chinese from Wuhan in the early days) entering the Kingdom until it was far too late to pursue denial as a policy, the decision to not close high attendance events like the boxing match despite knowledge of the spread of the disease, the decision to 'close down' Bangkok and thus force people, the poor especially, to flee back to their native villages/countries, and the decision to do this without much forewarning or publicity suggests that it is intentional (Hmm sheer incompetence can't be ruled out, but let's give that a miss). And, if you are going to pursue a policy like 'Herd Immunity', perhaps it is better to just get on with it and (hopefully) get it over with quickly before the economic and societal costs become too great.

 

Is aiming for the "Herd Immunity" a bad policy? That is a very tricky question. If a country does not have a good enough Health System, if a country does not have the many, many resources required to treat people, if a country does not have a social welfare system to support its people for... Weeks? Months? if a country does not have the required, trained medical personnel and the means to protect them, if a country subsists economically on the free movement of people (tourism), then is following the "Herd Immunity" strategy to try to attain quick results the wrong answer?

 

My personal answer is... I don't know.

 

There are pros and cons, rights and wrongs, cold headed realism vs. bleeding heart humanism, there is the logic of sacrificing some for the benefit of many vs the essential desire to assist someone in pain/illness. There are many, many factors.

 

Comments?

 

Thoughts?

 

 

[saengd]

I don't know that herd immunity is intentional other than it's the bi-product of doing nothing! What I do know is that if Thailand follows the Italian model, the country is in for massive numbers of facilitates because the population here operates on a 24 hour cycle of work, earn, eat, sleep and that can't be changed just because of a virus.

[bkk6060]

Very interesting.

I am watching the US president now and it appears he wants to give a "reopen"

in the next 7 days.

Maybe your comments are his thinking?

 

 

[Drax]

Someone I know died of coronavirus + bacterial infection last night here in Thailand.... Not on news yet. He had been in ITC for 10 days now. Man this is getting serious. He did work on a nightclub. I don’t wanna mention the name due to defamation laws but it’s not the thonglor one. This means this virus is more spreading than we think. 

[AlexRich]

Amulet immunity.

[saengd]

It seems from what I've read that the previous virus was a much milder strain and that we've now acquired the Italian version, I think this may be a whole new ball game.

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Very interesting.

I am watching the US president now and it appears he wants to give a "reopen"

in the next 7 days.

Maybe your comments are his thinking?

 

 

I picked up what I read about China getting back to work from Bloomberg, they are pretty clear than Beijing and Shanghai are returning to normal and that Hong Kong ers are returning to work also. Wouldn't it be ironic if the safe haven for us turned out to be mainland China.

[cornishcarlos]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

It seems from what I've read that the previous virus was a much milder strain and that we've now acquired the Italian version, I think this may be a whole new ball game.

 

This new "Italian" strain, has been identified by who exactly ?? 

[tifino]

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

3 minutes ago, saengd said:

It seems from what I've read that the previous virus was a much milder strain and that we've now acquired the Italian version, I think this may be a whole new ball game.

 

This new "Italian" strain, has been identified by who exactly ?? 

Not by WHO... that's fer sure!

[donnacha]

Common sense tells us that Thailand has long been hiding the biggest outbreak in the region.

As a technique, herd immunity only has benefits if, during the first wave, you focus your resources on completely isolating the vulnerable. The idea is to stop it getting to the groups who, if they get sick, will rapidly overwhelm the medical service. The vast majority of people under 60 can catch it and simply have a rough week or two at home.

Once a significant portion of the younger, healthier population have gained immunity, it becomes far harder for the virus to spread, making the second wave far less powerful, and meaning you do not have to isolate the vulnerable quite as much.

It is the smart approach, resulting in far fewer deaths but, as the UK government very quickly learned, politically almost impossible to carry out in a democratic country with a hostile media.

Sadly, most countries will now engage in the "lockdown theatre" of pretending they can have a broad lockdown that will be worth a damn.

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by donnacha

[saengd]

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

This new "Italian" strain, has been identified by who exactly ?? 

As I recall from the article the Italian strain, if that's what we going to call it here, is the one that is ravaging throughout Europe at present, exactly where the mutation occurred is not clear but it it is certainly very clear from the numbers it is not the same one that hit Thailand in the early days. I'll try and dig out the article and post it.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Common sense tells us that Thailand has long been hiding the biggest outbreak in the region.

As a technique, herd immunity only has benefits if, during the first wave, you focus your resources on completely isolating the vulnerable. The idea is to stop it getting to the groups who, if they get sick, will rapidly overwhelm the medical service. The vast majority of people under 60 can catch it and simply have a rough week or two at home.

Once a significant portion of the younger, healthier population have gained immunity, it becomes far harder for the virus to spread, making the second wave far less powerful, and meaning you do not have to isolate the vulnerable quite as much.

If the UK with all of its facilities and tools was unable to prevent the spread of the virus, how exactly did Thailand manage to hide and prevent it for so long?

[cornishcarlos]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

As I recall from the article the Italian strain, if that's what we going to call it here, is the one that is ravaging throughout Europe at present, exactly where the mutation occurred is not clear but it it is certainly very clear from the numbers it is not the same one that hit Thailand in the early days. I'll try and dig out the article and post it.

 

Yes would love to see a link to an article, as there has been no mention of an "Italian" strain in any reports I've seen coming from Europe...

There was one Thai doctor claiming that all the "new" cases in Thailand were due to an imported "Italian" strain and nothing to do with ineffective government policy, maybe that is the one you are referring to ??

[lamyai3]

29 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I am wondering if Thailand has decided, consciously or unconsciously, that it will follow the 'Herd Immunity' approach in dealing with Corvid-19. 

If you're talking about corvid-19, it's probably bird immunity - at least among the crow population.

[donnacha]

8 minutes ago, saengd said:

If the UK with all of its facilities and tools was unable to prevent the spread of the virus, how exactly did Thailand manage to hide and prevent it for so long?

Doing all they could to avoid testing, introducing laws preventing regional health areas from talking to the media, and marking down all hospitalization and deaths as pneumonia. At a time when other countries have been dealing with Covid-19, Thailand has been dealing with an unprecedented outbreak of pneumonia. Complete coincidence. Amazing Thailand.

It is worth noting that in America, arguably the most advanced and tech-savvy country in the world, no one was aware of just how deeply it had incubated in pockets all over the country. It was only when they started testing properly than they "suddenly" discovered their huge outbreak, 45K infected. Thailand still has no testing program.

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by donnacha

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

I THINK THAT WHAT we are seeing with thailand and other asian countries like s. korea

and singapore, is really interesting, even mystical.

you see, by scientific thinking, thailand had to be hit hard allready, with thousands of dead

and tens of thousands of sick people filling the hospitals. that's because thailand never closed it's

borders to china and there are so many chinese and other nationals visiting thailand.

one explanation can be that this virus does not like tropical weather, but still, it does not make sense,

because in s. korea it is very cold not, and still we don't see the italian nightmare there.

 

very very interesting. maybe this virus is god sent to punish only some nations?

 

and as for your wonder weather thailand chose it, i think the answer is not. 

i think that thailand just can't afford measures like total decree, or mass checking

of the population. simply can't afford it, because of social and economic reasons.

anyway now it is too late, according to "sceintific " thinking (because thailnad

had to look like italy now, if thinking "rationally").

let's all hope and pray thay thailand will stay away from this virus.

GOD BLESS THAILAND !!

[saengd]

Looking at the uptick of cases in Thailand from 28 January to 12 March, a period of over 6 weeks, the numbers went from 0 to about 75.

 

By contrast, the UK's first case was found on 28 February and from there they grew to over 6.650 by 23 March, less than 4 weeks.

 

Thailand couldn't possibly have hidden a similar rate of spread, we would all have seen or heard about incidents locally and we didn't.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

 

[samsensam]

1 minute ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

I THINK THAT WHAT we are seeing with thailand and other asian countries like s. korea

and singapore, is really interesting, even mystical.

you see, by scientific thinking, thailand had to be hit hard allready, with thousands of dead

and tens of thousands of sick people filling the hospitals. that's because thailand never closed it's

borders to china and there are so many chinese and other nationals visiting thailand.

one explanation can be that this virus does not like tropical weather, but still, it does not make sense,

because in s. korea it is very cold not, and still we don't see the italian nightmare there.

 

very very interesting. maybe this virus is god sent to punish only some nations?

 

and as for your wonder weather thailand chose it, i think the answer is not. 

i think that thailand just can't afford measures like total decree, or mass checking

of the population. simply can't afford it, because of social and economic reasons.

anyway now it is too late, according to "sceintific " thinking (because thailnad

had to look like italy now, if thinking "rationally").

let's all hope and pray thay thailand will stay away from this virus.

GOD BLESS THAILAND !!

 

the latitude theory has been in play for a while now, as far as i'm aware there is no direct evidence it exists but anecdotally there may be something in it.

[donnacha]

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

Thailand couldn't possibly have hidden a similar rate of spread, we would all have seen or heard about incidents locally and we didn't.

We did. Seriously, search this forum for "pneumonia", you'll soon find the official figures. There is nothing subtle about this coverup.

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, donnacha said:

We did. Seriously, search this forum for "pneumonia", you'll soon find the official figures. There is nothing subtle about this coverup.

I don't believe this, I subscribe to and the evidence supports a mutation. Further confirmation of this is found here: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

Edited March 23, 2020 by saengd

[Destiny1990]

Seems the plan is to give all the foreigners an track and trace app..
The results are looking very promising.

 

[GalaxyMan]

Herd immunity might be a good idea scientifically, but it doesn't seem to apply with COVID-19, which 'cured' people have gotten again, according to reports. I see the whole herd immunity support being based on cluelessness and helplessness to know what to do. It's an excuse to do nothing. It's also a very convenient way to get rid of an expensive segment of the population, the old people who require more medical resources (expensive).

[donnacha]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

I don't believe this, I subscribe to and the evidence supports a mutation.

Okay, let's see.

My bet is that after this government falls and the reporting restrictions are lifted, one of the most bitter grievances to emerge will be that thousands of Thais were sent home to die, all to protect the tourist industry.

 

[donnacha]

3 minutes ago, GalaxyMan said:

It's an excuse to do nothing. It's also a very convenient way to get rid of an expensive segment of the population, the old people who require more medical resources (expensive).

Do you really think any politician would deliberately wipe out the segment of the population that reliably votes for his party?

[Lacessit]

IMO the OP is ascribing a competence to the Thai authorities that does not exist.

[saengd]

6 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Okay, let's see.

My bet is that after this government falls and the reporting restrictions are lifted, one of the most bitter grievances to emerge will be that thousands of Thais were sent home to die, all to protect the tourist industry.

 

I think you just over complicated the analysis unnecessarily by trying to justify a conspiracy theory and that's unhelpful. I think you have to look at the problem from a numerical viewpoint rather than anything to do with politics or motivations,.

[saengd]

Scott....get help, now!

[Tayaout]

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-coronavirus-updates-is-the-thai-government-planning-to-use-a-new-herd-immunity-model-approach

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

23 minutes ago, saengd said:

Looking at the uptick of cases in Thailand from 28 January to 12 March, a period of over 6 weeks, the numbers went from 0 to about 75.

 

By contrast, the UK's first case was found on 28 February and from there they grew to over 6.650 by 23 March, less than 4 weeks.

 

Thailand couldn't possibly have hidden a similar rate of spread, we would all have seen or heard about incidents locally and we didn't.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

 

thailand simply does not have the resources to check so many people like the uk.

some time ago a thai official say that thailand has now 10,000 sets for corona checks, but

it keeps most of them for the medical and essential stuff.

now even if thailand had the money to buy millions of corona checks, it will be very

hard to find any on the market. there is a real battle for medical equipment, all over the world,

and as usual the rich and strong countries are getting the most. 

that is why, considering all thailand's  poor conditions,  it is amazing

to see the corona low numbers in thailand.

i think god is protecting thailand.

let's hope and pray it will stay quiet.

[spiekerjozef]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Herd Immunity

Seems to be the only option for many countries who don't have enough beds in ICU.

It becomes more and more clear what a stunning job china has done in wuhan (i still don't believe the numbers). But they stopped spreading it to most other provinces. And now it's under control.