Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

[Sheryl]

14 minutes ago, tomster said:

.....

 

You either need to test everybody, test selectively to mimic testing everybody, or only test the suspected cases of it....

 

 

 

they are doing the last one - testing only suspected cases (including close contacts of known cases). It is not completely random testing. Aside from the elite getting tested at private hospitals, the testing is very targeted.

 

Nothing intrinsically wrong with that, it just needs to be understood that this is what it is and therefore true number of infections is unknown.

[tropo]

9 hours ago, flyingtlger said:

Wishful thinking....There'll be a lot more than 3000.

 

Either they are mathematically challenged, or they think everyone else is.

 

Spread of covid-19 in the early stages is exponential, but detected cases relies on testing, which is limited and cannot assess the true spread of the virus.

 

Assuming there was only 100 new cases detected per day, as we are already over 1000 before the end of March, that would be over 4000 at the end of April. A 5 years old could figure that out.

 

As I said before, for some reason the Thai authorities live in a bubble. It's like they make it all up themselves and have no contact with the outside world.

Edited March 27, 2020 by tropo

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

More clarification is needed,within days of what?Being infected?Or within days of reaching the point of near death?Are there and examples of this happening that you could post?

Two days of reading Thai Visa.

[Zikomat]

Those figures are pretty optimistic and would signal a total control over situation. 300 000 will be a different story

[tropo]

11 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

I think the rapidity of spread is/will be slower here due to climatic conditions and lower density than it would otherwise be. I cannot predict what % of the population will ultimately be infected; we don't even know what % already have been.

 

And the mortality rate will be lower thanks to younger demographic than it otherwise would be. I cannot predict numbers of deaths especially given no idea how many infected.

 

I also cannot predict when it will be "finished". Slower spread can mean longer duration. It will start to wind down (not totally finish) when a critical mass of the population have acquired immunity.

 

Prior to that, it will slow due to measures taken. But we may see a blip first due to the effects of the Bangkok exodus which will inevitably have infected some of the travellers who in turn may infect their families.

 

Bear in mind average incubation period, the effects of things like the Bangkok out-migration and now  containment measures are not seen for at least 2 weeks.

 

 

 Most young people get through this with mild symptoms and basically already have an immune system that can cope. Left unchecked the older generation will take heavy casualties, but immunity is really based on individuals' health, not from having fought the infection and acquired immunity.

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, mberbae said:

Try the end of March. No April Fool's Joke either.

I went to Bangkok for Christmas and New years.

It was wall to wall Chinese.  Wuhan HAD the virus

by then...but were keeping it secret. Thus, tens of

thousands of Chinese came to Thailand on holiday.

 

So 12 weeks ago then?

 

I think they will have emerged by now. Any Spanish Flu victims there?

[Jean Laurent]

The first cases are listed on December 05, 2019 in Wuhan. The lunar new year for China begins on January 25, 2020. China will close its air traffic at the beginning of February 2020. What is surprising for Thailand, 3 million Chinese tourists will wander in the country until the beginning of February 2020 In the number of asymptomatic infected Chinese of whom I do not have the number and sometimes people with proven influenza pathologies, over 2 months from December 2019 to January 2020 where the festive gatherings were very numerous, we have only one limited number of 1045 cases of infected persons including 43 effective human-to-human contamination in the country and 1002 cases imported either from Thai workers returning from China, Japan and Korea or from foreign visitors. Note and this is important, to date 4 dead in Thailand out of 68,299,099 inhabitants (source JHU), which is 2 times less than in Luxembourg with a population of 614,000 inhabitants where the latest sanitary facilities are beyond reproach. Besides, the response here from the health authorities is beyond comprehension, as the psychosis has taken hold. We first had a background of racism towards the Chinese which is moving today towards the Europeans who are singled out especially since culturally they have serious difficulties in wearing a mask, even the Minister of Health has proposed to expel them from the territory if they did not comply with this injunction. What questions me is the closure of all public places, all stores except food and people who notwithstanding voluntarily stop all travel and all activities, remaining while it is not a sanitary obligation, confined to their homes . Families no longer celebrate birthdays, weddings, "monks" for teenagers and funerals, thus avoiding reunions to limit the spread of the virus. Certain provinces close their borders with neighboring provinces on the orders of the governor. For a country with 4 deaths, it's still a bit spectacular! - what can tell us locally about low virulence with rather reduced viral loads, can be found through a response on climatic conditions. It is 36 ° when I write this comment and the bright glow of the sun perhaps pushes the virus not to want to pass too much from one body to another which all in all is proportionally kept, very optimistic! - this is also why the inter-human contaminations were done in confined places and refrigerated by air conditioners at full power, the Muay Thai stadium in Lumpini park, a taxi driver who put his air conditioning at donf by transporting a contaminated Chinese family, people in a market north of Chiang Mai where it is usual to shop at 4am and where the temperature is around 5 °. In any case, a phase of psychosis which can seem suspicious to say the least, which contracts in an enunciation of figures that everyone swings to rely on mathematical models allowing them to place themselves in the hard sciences but where it is doubtful all the same to make carry to a virus the cause of an economic collapse for a Covid-19 which does not have for as much a very broad back but which unfortunately remains a serious serial killer in the temperate climatic zones! I want to testify here of all my consideration for Professor Didier Raoult, astrologically a Dragon from 1952, whose devastating ZZ top look disturbs "the <deleted> born from the last downpour" as French singer Georges Brassens sang. Far from the hushed salons of all of Paris, our researcher works like a titan to advance knowledge, showing off his academic diplomas as certain career academics do to us when the human planet is in danger.

[WalkingOrders]

4 minutes ago, Jean Laurent said:

The first cases are listed on December 05, 2019 in Wuhan. The lunar new year for China begins on January 25, 2020. China will close its air traffic at the beginning of February 2020. What is surprising for Thailand, 3 million Chinese tourists will wander in the country until the beginning of February 2020 In the number of asymptomatic infected Chinese of whom I do not have the number and sometimes people with proven influenza pathologies, over 2 months from December 2019 to January 2020 where the festive gatherings were very numerous, we have only one limited number of 1045 cases of infected persons including 43 effective human-to-human contamination in the country and 1002 cases imported either from Thai workers returning from China, Japan and Korea or from foreign visitors. Note and this is important, to date 4 dead in Thailand out of 68,299,099 inhabitants (source JHU), which is 2 times less than in Luxembourg with a population of 614,000 inhabitants where the latest sanitary facilities are beyond reproach. Besides, the response here from the health authorities is beyond comprehension, as the psychosis has taken hold. We first had a background of racism towards the Chinese which is moving today towards the Europeans who are singled out especially since culturally they have serious difficulties in wearing a mask, even the Minister of Health has proposed to expel them from the territory if they did not comply with this injunction. What questions me is the closure of all public places, all stores except food and people who notwithstanding voluntarily stop all travel and all activities, remaining while it is not a sanitary obligation, confined to their homes . Families no longer celebrate birthdays, weddings, "monks" for teenagers and funerals, thus avoiding reunions to limit the spread of the virus. Certain provinces close their borders with neighboring provinces on the orders of the governor. For a country with 4 deaths, it's still a bit spectacular! - what can tell us locally about low virulence with rather reduced viral loads, can be found through a response on climatic conditions. It is 36 ° when I write this comment and the bright glow of the sun perhaps pushes the virus not to want to pass too much from one body to another which all in all is proportionally kept, very optimistic! - this is also why the inter-human contaminations were done in confined places and refrigerated by air conditioners at full power, the Muay Thai stadium in Lumpini park, a taxi driver who put his air conditioning at donf by transporting a contaminated Chinese family, people in a market north of Chiang Mai where it is usual to shop at 4am and where the temperature is around 5 °. In any case, a phase of psychosis which can seem suspicious to say the least, which contracts in an enunciation of figures that everyone swings to rely on mathematical models allowing them to place themselves in the hard sciences but where it is doubtful all the same to make carry to a virus the cause of an economic collapse for a Covid-19 which does not have for as much a very broad back but which unfortunately remains a serious serial killer in the temperate climatic zones! I want to testify here of all my consideration for Professor Didier Raoult, astrologically a Dragon from 1952, whose devastating ZZ top look disturbs "the <deleted> born from the last downpour" as French singer Georges Brassens sang. Far from the hushed salons of all of Paris, our researcher works like a titan to advance knowledge, showing off his academic diplomas as certain career academics do to us when the human planet is in danger.

Best taken with magic mushrooms.

[spermwhale]

9 hours ago, flyingtlger said:

Wishful thinking....There'll be a lot more than 3000.

 

 

A lot more. It will only be 3000 if they continue by only testing a few people everyday. That's why they are able to suppress the real numbers. They are not testing enough. People don't have to pay if the test is positive but if it's negative they have to pony up. What's a poor, out of work Thai to do?

 

[natway09]

I really hope the Government is monitoring Thai Visa or a Moderator may think worth

sending to them (if that is possible).

Watched the Health Minister of Italy make some admissions yesterday that could help Thailand avoid the same mistakes

"We asked everyone who had a bad cough, temperature, hot back etc to go to their local hospital."

"That transpired to be the exact 

wrong action"

as he admitte that a country must keep 60% of Hospitals virus free.

He then continued to express how Sports Auditoriums, (something like Muang Thong Thani)

should be set up as a field Hospital for virus patients & maintain at least half your hospitals free of the disease,

I pass this along in good faith hoping that Thailand may learn from another countries mistakes,

Yes, I know that Thais do not like to think that they can learn from others but this in Italy case could have saved 2,000 lives

 

[Traubert]

35 minutes ago, tropo said:

Either they are mathematically challenged, or they think everyone else is.

 

Spread of covid-19 in the early stages is exponential, but detected cases relies on testing, which is limited and cannot assess the true spread of the virus.

 

Assuming there was only 100 new cases detected per day, as we are already over 1000 before the end of March, that would be over 4000 at the end of April. A 5 years old could figure that out.

 

As I said before, for some reason the Thai authorities live in a bubble. It's like they make it all up themselves and have no contact with the outside world.

You have to subtract the recoveries. Reuters dont even acknowledge their existence. Doesn't sell clicks.

 

China has around 4000 known cases but it's still reported as 82,000. Even though 78000 have recovered. It keeps you scared.

[miamiman123]

There’s really only one person to blame for this Thai spread.

at tops market the admin is going crazy walking around w a temp gun, trying to takes temps over and over.
I REFUSED  and they got a little aggressive 

I said loudly stop and they went and got reinforcements 

I left the store.

<deleted> crazies 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by miamiman123
Spell

[Dogmatix]

7 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

Cases in official announcements only refer to detected and reported cases.  Countries that have the capacity to do very little testing under report cases by a lot more than countries that have already established significant testing capacity.  The WHO said that reported cases in a country doing very little testing such as Indonesia are likely to be only about 2% of total cases.  On that basis Thailand most likely already has over 50,000 cases. 

 

Keeping reported cases at around 100 a day seems nothing short of miraculous compared to the experiences of other countries which experience doubling around every three days.  Italy's numbers went from only 80 cases to 10,000 in three short weeks, then powered on up from there. 

 

As the virus spreads around the provinces, reports of cases will probably slow down due to the much lower level of medical facilities compared to Bangkok and almost total lack of test kits in rural areas.  With an average 5.1 day incubation period before symptoms present, we should start seeing a surge of symptomatic cases in the provinces as a result of the weekend exodus from Bangkok just around now. 

 

[WalkingOrders]

5 minutes ago, miamiman123 said:

There’s really only one person to blame for this Thai spread.

at tops market the admin is going crazy walking around w a temp gun, trying to takes temps over and over.
I REFUSED  and they got a little aggressive 

I said loudly stop and they went and got reinforcements 

I left the store.

<deleted> crazies 

 

Sounds like an ignorant store manager or employee, or both. Not having any such issue at my local Gourmet Market. Give some people a simple job and they can't handle it.

[Krataiboy]

10 hours ago, flyingtlger said:

Wishful thinking....There'll be a lot more than 3000.

 

 

And the evidence is for this statement is what exactly?

[Dogmatix]

I guess he has to put forward his super best case scenario only to avoid being arrested for spreading scary news under the emergency decree.

[Dogmatix]

21 minutes ago, miamiman123 said:

There’s really only one person to blame for this Thai spread.

at tops market the admin is going crazy walking around w a temp gun, trying to takes temps over and over.
I REFUSED  and they got a little aggressive 

I said loudly stop and they went and got reinforcements 

I left the store.

<deleted> crazies 

 

Not sure why anyone would refuse this. Even if the temperature taking is ineffective at detecting pre-symptomatic cases, it is all they can do along with getting people to clean their hands before entering the store. They have a right to take these basic measures and to refuse entry to customers who object.  I fully support the management of all stores doing this.

[mehrdad]

Maybe 30,000 ????

[taxin]

I guess Anupong may have overlooked the fact that only 3 weeks ago in Phuket (particularly Patong) the place was rammed with Italian and other mainland European tourists, a large portion of these tourists would have entered Thailand when the neighbouring counties in Europe would have already started to restrict movements.
 

The Phuket Paradise Beach full moon party was allowed to go ahead, one week after the Lumpini boxing stadium outbreak. Many of these tourists would have flocked to Phuket after discovering the main full moon party In Koh Pha Ngan was canceled. Those same tourists of which many of them are still in Phuket now being ordered to stay in their rooms.

 

But it’s OK, for the problems in the south we will blame the “foreigners” in Malaysia for attending a religious ceremony in Kuala Lumpur. 
 

Yet another brain dead Thai politician passing the blame in the name of saving face.

Edited March 27, 2020 by taxin

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

What is? Please post a credible link.

Just look. Chinese covid test kits Spain. 27,000,000 results. Try thinking for yourself.

Edited March 27, 2020 by dinsdale

[P Funk]

Multiply by 10 to get the real number...

[Assurancetourix]

All that does not suit the Cassanders of the TAT who had planned the end of Covid-19 for the end of April and the triumphant return of the Chinese in early May ...

[jimmjam]

lets double or even triple that number,as you decided to stop everyone going back to their homes after they already did last Friday from bangkok. too little too late mate

 

[sqwakvfr]

My fear is in Bangkok.  This is based upon the US Numbers for Comparison:

 

1.  New York City has approximately 24,000

2.  Los Angeles has approximately 1200.  This number will be nigher if neighboring Orange County is also included.  My guess is all of Southern California would top 2000.

 

I believe the key reasons for New York’s high number is the following:

 

1.  High Density

2.  A large subway systems

3.  Large Transient Population

4.  Winter Weather?

 

In Southern California most people drive and most vehicles have solo drivers.

Also, the weather in So Cal is rather warm.  

 

At this time I do not see Los Angeles surpassing New York and I believe any exponential growth in Thailand will be primarily in Bangkok.  

 

 

[DrTuner]

40 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

I believe any exponential growth in Thailand will be primarily in Bangkok.  

The social distancing will decrease the R0, but it is always exponential, with the exception of R0 exactly 1.0 where it stays at same number.

 

In the sticks the amount of people one comes into contact with each day is less than in tightly packed city centers, meaning the time to meet some one infected increases in average, dropping R0. Natural social distancing when you don't cram into metal BTS tubes.  So, yes it'll be BKK centric. Simple fact of population density.

 

You can play around with the factors here: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html , R0 is something you have to estimate yourself for any given location.

Edited March 27, 2020 by DrTuner

[lamyai3]

7 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

What medical/mathmatical modelling is the department using

1) 1 0 0

2) x

3) 3 0

4) =

[Cranky]

9 hours ago, MaiDong said:

I remember when a Thai Scientist came forward and pronounced that Thailand would suffer(marginally) less than some other nations with rising sea levels. He turned out to be correct, despite many comments of derision - including mine.

 

So let's give this fella a chance, shall we? As others have said, the temperature here could help prevent the spread, the amount of people wearing facemasks could help prevent the spread too, as in Italy I don't believe many wore masks in the early stages?...

 

Anyhow, don't we all WANT him to be right in his conservative estimate? Or even overestimating the numbers?

And you believe in the Tooth Fairy and Santa?

[Dannybigboy]

3000 ??? Come on ....its gonna be a disaster with at least 50- 100000 cases !! Anything else is a bonus and a blessing. The Corona ( Covid-19 ) is already out there and Thailand was late on proper measures to deal with it. We will pray for you. 

[pacovl46]

7 hours ago, WalkingOrders said:

Thailand's rate of growth is definately, factually, NOT, a mirror of the rate of growth of other countries, nor are other countries growth rates mirroring each other. So explain to me why Thailand must mirror Germany?

At the end of February Thailand had about 40 cases. Now 27 days later they’re at 1136 as of right now. It’s not quite double the rate every 4 days, yet, but it’s seems to be getting there. The numbers in Thailand really took of in March. I really hope that it won’t go the German way. Time will tell. 

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, metempsychotic said:

how many places do you intend to repost this without context?

It was in CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/covid-19-lung-damage-video/index.html

 

I think the message is, it's very nasty even if you don't die of it. Stay home.

Edited March 27, 2020 by DrTuner