Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June - Washington University analysis

[vermin on arrival]

17 hours ago, Logosone said:

So does this mean Chinese hospitals are better than American hospitals?

 

I mean it's just that China was surprised, ambushed. Whereas the US had a few months to learn the lay of the land.

 

More money too.

 

So how come China has less cases?

Here is an interesting article on that https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3905788?fbclid=IwAR36-jlTkF5dSGsmpocDqsQAUBAEn_1W3oytEuOVgeutsDYlahPxp0KVrbA

[vermin on arrival]

16 hours ago, Logosone said:

That's just the point, there is no study which proves social distancing is effective.

 

You're right, travel restriction is not exactly the same as the social distancing we're forced to endure, but unless you have a better study, that's the best there is.

 

I don't have to prove social distancing is not effective. Social distancing extremists have to prove that it is.

I was also putting the massive travel restrictions in with social distancing, but you are correct they are not the same thing

[Logosone]

13 hours ago, Slosheroni said:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3372334/

Nice try, but that's for influenza viruses.

 

Covid19 transmission is rather different.

[Logosone]

10 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

Nations that were impacted by SARS were more wary than others.  For instance, South Korea had a plan that included reacting quickly to a previously unknown and potentially fatal respiratory disease.  SK was "unlucky" in that a low number of infected individuals returning to SK attended large gatherings and became or created super spreaders.

South Korea's government also ignored the many warnings from experts. They were not prepared. The South Korean government failed like everywhere else, they did not prepare fully and they did not react on time. This is evidenced by the fact that they did not have test kits at the start like everyone else.

 

What happened in South Korea is that companies started to produce test kits as soon as China published the genome of the virus, just as was done in Germany. It was private companies and doctors and scientists that saved Korea. Not the government, which failed to prepare adequately and took no action while watching Wuhan, like everyone else.

 

South Korea toward the end of March was able to do 70000 tests a week, less than half of what Germany is able to do. However, they have taken the fight to the virus and really made an effort to identify and isolate the carriers.

 

And the most important difference: They did not use the drastic lockdown measures other countries have used. Because the South Koreans understood that isolating the healthy from the healthy is pointless. They concentrated on isolating the infected.

 

So South Korea is a perfectly example that if you take intelligent steps to isolate the infected, identify them and, track them, then extreme social isolation and lockdown of the healthy are not necessary.

 

So yes, good work Korea. But despite the governments early failure and its failure to prepare adequately.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Logosone

[Sujo]

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

South Korea's government also ignored the many warnings from experts. They were not prepared. The South Korean government failed like everywhere else, they did not prepare fully and they did not react on time. This is evidenced by the fact that they did not have test kits at the start like everyone else.

 

What happened in South Korea is that companies started to produce test kits as soon as China published the genome of the virus, just as was done in Germany. It was private companies and doctors and scientists that saved Korea. Not the government, which failed to prepare adequately and took no action while watching Wuhan, like everyone else.

 

South Korea toward the end of March was able to do 70000 tests a week, less than half of what Germany is able to do. However, they have taken the fight to the virus and really made an effort to identify and isolate the carriers.

 

And the most important difference: They did not use the drastic lockdown measures other countries have used. Because the South Koreans understood that isolating the healthy from the healthy is pointless. They concentrated on isolating the infected.

 

So South Korea is a perfectly example that if you take intelligent steps to isolate the infected, identify them and, track them, then extreme social isolation and lockdown of the healthy are not necessary.

 

So yes, good work Korea. But despite the governments early failure and its failure to prepare adequately.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am really concerned you believe what you are posting. I hope you dont come near me because your attitude seems to be like the kids on spring break.

 

In the interim, no one should worry, trump is on to it. He demands all governors say how good a job he has done.

 

 

[simple1]

15 minutes ago, Logosone said:

And the most important difference: They did not use the drastic lockdown measures other countries have used. Because the South Koreans understood that isolating the healthy from the healthy is pointless. They concentrated on isolating the infected.

Change of policy...

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-26/south-korea-reports-91-new-coronavirus-cases-total-9-332-kcdc

 

Plus...

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down

[Dumbastheycome]

On 3/27/2020 at 4:07 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

But Dr. Trump says you can go to packed church services in time for Easter!!!!!   

 

If he can't be impeached out of office by the Republicans in the U.S. Senate, can they at least yank his medical license!!!!

Should that not be charged  with  practicing Medicine without a license?

[JHolmesJr]

On 3/27/2020 at 9:01 AM, webfact said:

(Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic could kill more than 81,000 people in the United States....

 

COULD

 

Well, I think it could kill 3,345,654 people

Or maybe 32,456.

COULD...hardly the language you expect from a think tank.

Sounds like everyone has a right to air an opinion except of course Donald Trump.

Pffft!

[Dumbastheycome]

20 hours ago, IAMHERE said:

I want a test to see if I've already developed immunity before I take a vaccine that rushed into production. YMMV

Me too ! Maybe possible by the time a  vaccine is  generally  available  so will an almost instant  <deleted> test.

[metisdead]

A trolling video has been removed. 

[Slosheroni]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

Nice try, but that's for influenza viruses.

 

Covid19 transmission is rather different.

Lol...the same principles apply.  Social distancing works. 

[Skeptic7]

There needs to be a GLOBAL "Tick By Tick" DEATH SCOREBOARD every day on every website and Television channel...even after this "End of World" event passes, just to keep things in proper perspective. Since there isn't., here are the approximate averages...

 

Average deaths/day from heart disease: 45,000

Average deaths/day from tobacco related: 21,000

Average deaths/day from malnutrition: 20,000

Average deaths/day from mosquitoes: 7000

Average deaths/day from diabetes: 4300

Average deaths/day from motor vehicle: 3700

Average deaths/day from HIV related: 2100

Average deaths/day from seasonal flu(s): 1000 

Average deaths/day from Covid-19: 460

Average deaths/day from lightning: 10

[candide]

22 minutes ago, Skeptic7 said:

There needs to be a GLOBAL "Tick By Tick" DEATH SCOREBOARD every day on every website and Television channel...even after this "End of World" event passes, just to keep things in proper perspective. Since there isn't., here are the approximate averages...

 

Average deaths/day from heart disease: 45,000

Average deaths/day from tobacco related: 21,000

Average deaths/day from malnutrition: 20,000

Average deaths/day from mosquitoes: 7000

Average deaths/day from diabetes: 4300

Average deaths/day from motor vehicle: 3700

Average deaths/day from HIV related: 2100

Average deaths/day from seasonal flu(s): 1000 

Average deaths/day from Covid-19: 460

Average deaths/day from lightning: 10

And the source for these fake statistics is?

[Sujo]

4 hours ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

COULD

 

Well, I think it could kill 3,345,654 people

Or maybe 32,456.

COULD...hardly the language you expect from a think tank.

Sounds like everyone has a right to air an opinion except of course Donald Trump.

Pffft!

The issue is what trumps opinions are based on. Not to worry, he has consulted that well known biological scientist ARod.

 

https://www.news.com.au/sport/american-sports/mlb/donald-trump-reportedly-called-former-baseballer-alex-rodriguez-for-advice-regarding-coronavirus-outbreak/news-story/e40bbb9b0bebd756f3fe0c40365fb2a1

[Skeptic7]

21 minutes ago, candide said:

And the source for these fake statistics is?

#1 should have been listed as CVD...cardiovascular disease. Source WHO

https://www.who.int/health-topics/cardiovascular-diseases/#tab=tab_1

 

#2 Source WHO and CDC

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm

 

#3 Source MercyCorps and WHO

https://www.mercycorps.org/blog/quick-facts-global-hunger

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malnutrition

 

#4 depending on source can possibly be revised down to between 2000-7000

https://mosquitoreviews.com/learn/disease-death-statistics

https://www.who.int/neglected_diseases/vector_ecology/mosquito-borne-diseases/en/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito-borne_disease

 

#5 Source WHO and IDF and can possibly be revised much higher depending on source

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diabetes

https://www.idf.org/aboutdiabetes/what-is-diabetes/facts-figures.html

 

#6 Source CDC and Forbes

https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tanyamohn/2018/12/31/every-24-seconds-someone-dies-death-toll-on-worlds-roads-worsens/#d93edd03e79d

 

#7 Source WHO and UNAids

https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/epidemic_status/deaths_text/en/

https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet

 

#8 Source NIH and WHO

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

 

#9 revised and rounded up to 500/day based on number of known deaths (at this very moment) divided by 60 days since Covid 19 became widely known. This mortality number is rising, but is also subject to the number of days divided in to that number. 88 days would probably be more accurate and yield a daily death rate of 328 per day presently, but the higher number used above was erring on the side of caution. At the end of it...as with the seasonal flu, deaths are divided by 365, to be an accurate comparison the total number of deaths in 2020 from Covid 19 will also have to be divided by 365. 

 

#10 Source National Geographic

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/lightning/

[JHolmesJr]

2 hours ago, Sujo said:

The issue is what trumps opinions are based on. Not to worry, he has consulted that well known biological scientist ARod.

 

https://www.news.com.au/sport/american-sports/mlb/donald-trump-reportedly-called-former-baseballer-alex-rodriguez-for-advice-regarding-coronavirus-outbreak/news-story/e40bbb9b0bebd756f3fe0c40365fb2a1

 

you need to stop spewing these crappy urls from dodgy sources...

 

when assessing trump news the smartest thing to do before reacting is to wait 

48 hrs....it will usually be reported as misinformation.

 

This seems like a classic case of made up nonsense...the kind you like to traffic in.

[candide]

1 hour ago, Skeptic7 said:

#1 should have been listed as CVD...cardiovascular disease. Source WHO

https://www.who.int/health-topics/cardiovascular-diseases/#tab=tab_1

 

#2 Source WHO and CDC

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm

 

#3 Source MercyCorps and WHO

https://www.mercycorps.org/blog/quick-facts-global-hunger

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malnutrition

 

#4 depending on source can possibly be revised down to between 2000-7000

https://mosquitoreviews.com/learn/disease-death-statistics

https://www.who.int/neglected_diseases/vector_ecology/mosquito-borne-diseases/en/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito-borne_disease

 

#5 Source WHO and IDF and can possibly be revised much higher depending on source

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diabetes

https://www.idf.org/aboutdiabetes/what-is-diabetes/facts-figures.html

 

#6 Source CDC and Forbes

https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tanyamohn/2018/12/31/every-24-seconds-someone-dies-death-toll-on-worlds-roads-worsens/#d93edd03e79d

 

#7 Source WHO and UNAids

https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/epidemic_status/deaths_text/en/

https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet

 

#8 Source NIH and WHO

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

 

#9 revised and rounded up to 500/day based on number of known deaths (at this very moment) divided by 60 days since Covid 19 became widely known. This mortality number is rising, but is also subject to the number of days divided in to that number. 88 days would probably be more accurate and yield a daily death rate of 328 per day presently, but the higher number used above was erring on the side of caution. At the end of it...as with the seasonal flu, deaths are divided by 365, to be an accurate comparison the total number of deaths in 2020 from Covid 19 will also have to be divided by 365. 

 

#10 Source National Geographic

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/lightning/

Ok I acknowledge your estimates were accurate. However it does not make sense to calculate the number of death per day for the coronavirus pandemic as it is very far from its peak at the world level. As you mention, that would make sense only at the end of this year.

 

However, your estimates may be a good way to assess the magnitude of coronavirus daily figures, I.e. today more than 3500 new deaths, so in the range of deaths by diabetes. When it is in the same range as deaths by CVC, that will be quite significant.

[daveAustin]

4 hours ago, Skeptic7 said:

There needs to be a GLOBAL "Tick By Tick" DEATH SCOREBOARD every day on every website and Television channel...even after this "End of World" event passes, just to keep things in proper perspective. Since there isn't., here are the approximate averages...

 

Average deaths/day from heart disease: 45,000

Average deaths/day from tobacco related: 21,000

Average deaths/day from malnutrition: 20,000

Average deaths/day from mosquitoes: 7000

Average deaths/day from diabetes: 4300

Average deaths/day from motor vehicle: 3700

Average deaths/day from HIV related: 2100

Average deaths/day from seasonal flu(s): 1000 

Average deaths/day from Covid-19: 460

Average deaths/day from lightning: 10

#9 has/had potential to dwarf them all.

[Logosone]

5 hours ago, Slosheroni said:

Lol...the same principles apply.  Social distancing works. 

No, because influenza is transmitted differently to Covid19. With Covid19 transmission is much faster and that is because 50% of the infected show no symptoms, there are also other transmission differences.

 

So one can't just take influenza social distancing data and apply it to Covid19 as if it were the same virus. It's not.

 

Because Covid19 transmission is so fast it is more likely that herd immunity will be achieved before social distancing can even cause any small delay. It's basically pointless. Precisely because Covid19 transmission is different and much faster. Post a study that shows social distancing works with Covid19. There is no hard data on this at all. It's just a belief. A hope. A hunch. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Logosone

[Sujo]

1 hour ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

you need to stop spewing these crappy urls from dodgy sources...

 

when assessing trump news the smartest thing to do before reacting is to wait 

48 hrs....it will usually be reported as misinformation.

 

This seems like a classic case of made up nonsense...the kind you like to traffic in.

Whats dodgy about the source.

 

If you believe anything trump says i know its dodgy, he dies have prior form as the liar in chief.

[Throatwobbler]

On 3/27/2020 at 2:06 PM, Logosone said:

81,000 are going to be killed? How so? I thought we were all social distancing?

 

Are you saying social distancing doesn't work?

What you have to remember about the above poster is that he knows far more than all the health experts. He also does not care about how many die. He just want the economy to keep going so he can keep chasing the dollar.

Evil does not cover the sort of person he is.

 

[Throatwobbler]

On 3/27/2020 at 3:44 PM, Logosone said:

No it doesn't. Travel restrictions only work at the start of a pandemic, not when the virus has already spread.

 

Precisely because there has been massive community spread going on for some time in the US is social distancing effectively useless now:

 

Cordoning off an entire city, Wuhan, bought the rest of China a grand total of 3 days:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218

 

You love quoting this report but you really have no idea what it says. And I and many others have explained so many times what you do not understand. You really are not a numbers person are you? 

 

[JHolmesJr]

1 hour ago, Sujo said:

Whats dodgy about the source.

 

If you believe anything trump says i know its dodgy, he dies have prior form as the liar in chief.

 

hmmmm....you are going to find yourself increasingly isolated in your echo chamber

of trump hate. His approval on handling the crisis has skyrocketed according to an ABC

poll yesterday (google it).....his daily briefings have shown him too be a guy who suffers

no idiot journos.....gives hope and courage to millions.....so much so that CNN has decided to stop airing 

them. 

 

Trump has proven that posturing saints like governor Cuomo are just liars who cry wolf about ventilators

when they actually have them sitting in stockpiles. 

 

liar in chief??? LOL....it's sad to see a grown up (presumably) getting all their critical thinking fodder from

a lying sewage outlet like CNN.

[URMySunshine]

2 hours ago, daveAustin said:

#9 has/had potential to dwarf them all.

I've always been scared of lightning and to date I've never had a problem. Quid pro quo. 

[simple1]

5 hours ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

you need to stop spewing these crappy urls from dodgy sources...in.

Crappy URLs? Uninformed nonsense - comes from a Rupert Murdoch owned media group - a well known trump supporter

Edited March 28, 2020 by simple1

[heybruce]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

No, because influenza is transmitted differently to Covid19. With Covid19 transmission is much faster and that is because 50% of the infected show no symptoms, there are also other transmission differences.

 

So one can't just take influenza social distancing data and apply it to Covid19 as if it were the same virus. It's not.

 

Because Covid19 transmission is so fast it is more likely that herd immunity will be achieved before social distancing can even cause any small delay. It's basically pointless. Precisely because Covid19 transmission is different and much faster. Post a study that shows social distancing works with Covid19. There is no hard data on this at all. It's just a belief. A hope. A hunch. 

Influenza is transmitted the same way as Covid 19, but since it is easier to catch Covid 19 the virus spreads more rapidly.  That is an argument for social distancing.  The claim that 50% show no symptons (evidence also shows these people do not spread the virus as effectively) is also an argument for social distancing.

 

Herd immunity will be achieved eventually with slow transmission, then we will see how effective it is.  Low transmission rates allow health care systems more time to prepare.

[simple1]

Info from Washington Post - US Covid-19 deaths have doubles in two days - currently stands at 2,000.

 

 

 

[Opl]

"Insider asked poll respondents to rate 10 top Trump administration officials and governors on trustworthiness. 

We asked respondents: "When it comes to the official advice regarding coronavirus, please rate how much you trust the following messengers on a scale on 1 to 5."

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci and Gov. Andrew Cuomo are the most trusted leaders in America on the coronavirus right now. Trump is not.

[cdemundo]

On 3/27/2020 at 12:06 AM, Logosone said:

81,000 are going to be killed? How so? I thought we were all social distancing?

 

Are you saying social distancing doesn't work?

As I understand it social distancing may not change the total number of people who ultimately become infected.  The idea is to prevent rampant early infections that overwhelm the medical system and increase the number of deaths from other causes as well as from COVID virus.  If you are really interested in this question you could look at one of multiple accounts online of the difference in the effects of social distancing as practiced by Philadelphia vs. St. Louis during the 1918 flu pandemic.

[JHolmesJr]

7 hours ago, URMySunshine said:

The day I stop hating Trump is the day I stop taking breath. From my cold dead hands ,  from my cold dead body. 

 

No one cares.

Wash your hands and follow the hygiene guidelines.