UK epidemic is slowing and antibody test could be ready in days, top epidemiologist says

[snoop1130]

UK epidemic is slowing and antibody test could be ready in days, top epidemiologist says

By Guy Faulconbridge

 

A sign is shown warning people to practise safe distancing in a west London park as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues in London, Britain, March 29, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Coombs

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The coronavirus epidemic in the United Kingdom is showing signs of slowing and antibody tests could be ready in days, Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, said on Monday.

 

"We think the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now," Ferguson told BBC radio.

 

Britain, which has the world's fifth largest economy, initially took an approach to containing the spread of the disease that was modest in comparison to European countries such as Italy.

 

But Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed stringent controls after projections showed a quarter of a million people could die. Johnson on Friday became the first leader of a major power to announce a positive test result for coronavirus. He is self isolating in Downing Street.

 

Ferguson said a third or even 40% of people do not get any symptoms. He said perhaps 2% to 3% of the United Kingdom's population had been infected.

 

But Ferguson cautioned that the data was not good enough to make firm extrapolations.

 

He said antibody tests were in the final stage of validation right now and could be hopefully ready to use in "days rather than weeks".

 

Health officials said on Sunday that figures showed that 1,228 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) had died. As of 0800 GMT on March 29, a total of 127,737 people in the UK have been tested, of which 108,215 were confirmed negative and 19,522 were confirmed positive.

 

When asked whether the antibody test would be ready in days, junior health minister Helen Whately told BBC radio: "I am not going to confirm when that's going to arrive."

 

Britain has begun rolling out antigen tests - which are different to antibody tests - for healthcare workers but the numbers being tested are far below the levels of Germany, Europe's largest economy.

 

Whately said there was capacity to have 10,000 people a day tested though 7,000 were tested on Saturday or Sunday. She said the government hoped to get to 25,000 tests per day over the next few weeks.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-30

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[bluesofa]

'Practise safe distancing'

Shouldn't that be 'Practice safe distancing' as it refers to the act itself, not who is doing it?

 

Just waiting to be called a grammar nazi and possible deletion, but in my defence your honour I am referring to the photo, not the text in the article.

 

[Chomper Higgot]

“Britain, which has the world's fifth largest economy, initially took an approach to containing the spread of the disease that was modest in comparison to European countries such as Italy.”

 

Factually incorrect.

 

The UK Government initially enacted a policy of not intervening in order to build natural immunity (by infection) within the population while claiming to take measures to care for the most vulnerable.

 

Johnson changed course when this madness was rumbled and widely criticized in the press.

[ivor bigun]

7 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

“Britain, which has the world's fifth largest economy, initially took an approach to containing the spread of the disease that was modest in comparison to European countries such as Italy.”

 

Factually incorrect.

 

The UK Government initially enacted a policy of not intervening in order to build natural immunity (by infection) within the population while claiming to take measures to care for the most vulnerable.

 

Johnson changed course when this madness was rumbled and widely criticized in the press.

Many thought at first that this was the way to go ,so dont bother using it to berate a guy who is doing a good job for the UK,unlike Corbyn who uses any excuse to push his crazy left wing agenda.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

Many thought at first that this was the way to go ,so dont bother using it to berate a guy who is doing a good job for the UK,unlike Corbyn who uses any excuse to push his crazy left wing agenda.

Many thought otherwise.

 

I’m not sure why you mention Corbyn or left wing agenda, I suspect it’s a trigger response of yours.

[ivor bigun]

2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Many thought otherwise.

 

I’m not sure why you mention Corbyn or left wing agenda, I suspect it’s a trigger response of yours.

Quick simple1  ,agree with him????

[Chomper Higgot]

“We think the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now," Ferguson told BBC radio.

 

Without going into who ‘we’ is, ‘think’ is nonsense without data to back it up.

 

If Ferguson, or whoever ‘we’ is, had data he, and they would present it.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Chomper Higgot

[Nigel Garvie]

15 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

Many thought at first that this was the way to go ,so dont bother using it to berate a guy who is doing a good job for the UK,unlike Corbyn who uses any excuse to push his crazy left wing agenda.

Tangential to the topic, but just briefly for clarification, you may not have noticed but Corbyn is history. He gave his farewell remarks at his final PMQs a week or so ago. He promised to carry on the good fight, although in what capacity is anybody's guess. The yawn meter went deep into the red as he spoke.

You should be grateful to him, he was the best supporter Brexit ever had. 

Might I suggest that you find a new figurehead for your anti left wing rants.

 

From Chomper:........."If Ferguson, or whoever ‘we’ is, had data he, and they would present it."

Indeed, this forum, and other social media are full of quotes from individual contributor's favourite professor. Standard practice, if you want your nutty views supported search the web for a suitable like minded nutter. Whether this is the case in this topic here, I would want more evidence. 

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Nigel Garvie

[Krataiboy]

A welcome about-turn from the "expert" who predicted half a million UK deaths.

 

Heartening to see he has reigned in the hyperbole, along with his own Government which officially downgraded the threat level of COVID-19 a couple of weeks ago.  

 

Unfortunately, as well as having to eat humble pie, the poor guy has also tested positive for the virus. What goes around. . . 

[Baerboxer]

18 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

“Britain, which has the world's fifth largest economy, initially took an approach to containing the spread of the disease that was modest in comparison to European countries such as Italy.”

 

Factually incorrect.

 

The UK Government initially enacted a policy of not intervening in order to build natural immunity (by infection) within the population while claiming to take measures to care for the most vulnerable.

 

Johnson changed course when this madness was rumbled and widely criticized in the press.

 

Yes, whereas the socialist government in Spain did so much better. Er, not.

 

Stop politicizing this with your usual anti anything center or right of center criticisms whilst ignoring the reality. It's just rather repetitive.

Edited March 31, 2020 by Baerboxer

[Baerboxer]

17 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

“We think the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now," Ferguson told BBC radio.

 

Without going into who ‘we’ is, ‘think’ is nonsense without data to back it up.

 

If Ferguson, or whoever ‘we’ is, had data he, and they would present it.

 

 

 

None of the governments have. Maybe the bit about data not being enough for accurate extrapolation gives a clue?

[Baerboxer]

18 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

“Britain, which has the world's fifth largest economy, initially took an approach to containing the spread of the disease that was modest in comparison to European countries such as Italy.”

 

Factually incorrect.

 

The UK Government initially enacted a policy of not intervening in order to build natural immunity (by infection) within the population while claiming to take measures to care for the most vulnerable.

 

Johnson changed course when this madness was rumbled and widely criticized in the press.

 

Will you be writing to Reuters to correct their incorrect facts?

 

Do let us know how you get on.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

A welcome about-turn from the "expert" who predicted half a million UK deaths.

 

Heartening to see he has reigned in the hyperbole, along with his own Government which officially downgraded the threat level of COVID-19 a couple of weeks ago.  

 

Unfortunately, as well as having to eat humble pie, the poor guy has also tested positive for the virus. What goes around. . . 

Lest we forget, here we have the good Dr Neil Ferguson on record:

 

"Our estimates – while subject to much uncertainty due to the limited data currently available – suggest that the impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/

 

Fast forward one month and it's:

 

"UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower"

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

 

Dr Ferguson's flawed paper, of which there are two versions because he radically revised the first one, was indeed at the heart of decision making by Downing Street. He's basically had the whole world closed down because 0.03% of the population of the UK may or may not die in the next few weeks, the majority of whom are over 80 years old and would have died anyway because they have underlying medical conditions.

 

Could we get an update on the economic world consequences from the good doctor on his genius policy recommendations?

[Chomper Higgot]

28 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Yes, whereas the socialist government in Spain did so much better. Er, not.

 

Stop politicizing this with your usual anti anything center or right of center criticisms whilst ignoring the reality. It's just rather repetitive.

‘Yes, whereas the socialist government in Spain did so much better. Er, not.’

 

Immediately followed by:

 

‘Stop politicizing this....’

 

I’m not at all sure why you had to wander off to Spain to gather some whataboutary, my guess is you wanted to try to score a political point.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

27 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Will you be writing to Reuters to correct their incorrect facts?

 

Do let us know how you get on.

No, I’ll continue to comment here on this discussion forum where I am a member and where the purpose of the forum is to

discuss.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Lest we forget, here we have the good Dr Neil Ferguson on record:

 

"Our estimates – while subject to much uncertainty due to the limited data currently available – suggest that the impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/

 

Fast forward one month and it's:

 

"UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower"

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

 

Dr Ferguson's flawed paper, of which there are two versions because he radically revised the first one, was indeed at the heart of decision making by Downing Street. He's basically had the whole world closed down because 0.03% of the population of the UK may or may not die in the next few weeks, the majority of whom are over 80 years old and would have died anyway because they have underlying medical conditions.

 

Could we get an update on the economic world consequences from the good doctor on his genius policy recommendations?

“Our estimates – while subject to much uncertainty due to the limited data currently available – suggest ....”

 

And then:

 

Fast forward one month and it's:

 

"UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower"

 

Let’s see if yo can grasp this.

 

In the interim month more data became available.

 

Doh!

[nausea]

Calm down and have a cup of tea, it's just a practise for the real thing. Pretty obvious to me that some sort of really virulent pandemic is gonna hit us eventually. Yeah, we could learn a few lessons from this. JIT probably isn't the best idea and crazy preppers may have a point. Everything is so interconnected nowadays, a failure at one point means a failure of the entire system. We could learn from the Bronze Age Collapse, but I won't hold my breath on that. Personally, I'm pretty glad that those I hold dear have a strong connection to the land. Ah, when the banking system fails, there'll be the rub. You won't be so complacent then.

[Krataiboy]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

“Our estimates – while subject to much uncertainty due to the limited data currently available – suggest ....”

 

And then:

 

Fast forward one month and it's:

 

"UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower"

 

Let’s see if yo can grasp this.

 

In the interim month more data became available.

 

Doh!

With limited data, he should have limited his fearmongering. Bet he wishes he had now!

[dunroaming]

20 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

“We think the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now," Ferguson told BBC radio.

 

Without going into who ‘we’ is, ‘think’ is nonsense without data to back it up.

 

If Ferguson, or whoever ‘we’ is, had data he, and they would present it.

 

 

There is a danger that if "they" say that the epidemic is showing signs of slowing, there are many dimwits out there who will start to relax their regime too quickly.  Difficult call but I would sooner "they" keep people focussed on the continuing risks which are just as real for now.

[samran]

21 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

Many thought at first that this was the way to go ,so dont bother using it to berate a guy who is doing a good job for the UK,unlike Corbyn who uses any excuse to push his crazy left wing agenda.

Meanwhile, all the retrenched conservatives are weirdly okay with this new socialist safety net...

[ivor bigun]

22 minutes ago, samran said:

Meanwhile, all the retrenched conservatives are weirdly okay with this new socialist safety net...

Corbyn was not doing it to save the country ,he was just going to give the money away and bankrupt the country in the process ,just like the last Labour govt"sorry the moneys all gone" now who wrote that and what party was he from?

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

With limited data, he should have limited his fearmongering. Bet he wishes he had now!

Exactly, with what he acknowledged was limited data he drafted a paper so alarmist claiming 500,000 dead in the UK, 20 million in the US, that led the UK and US governments to take a certain policy.

 

Then he revised his paper in a hurry, because he realised it was wrong, blaming it on new data, but the paper actually still left out the very key measure to contain the pandemic, testing and isolating. The UK government revises its policy completely on the basis of this flawed paper.

 

Of course when everyone's infected and there's herd immunity but considerably less than 20,000 fatalities he'll say "See, it all worked, social distancing was the key, just like I told you, exactly the amount of dead I told you.", because of course his paper has tables with "possible outcomes" listing everything from 490 to 490,000 and all figures inbetween. It's not his first rodeo after all. Another empire award.

 

Oh and btw, Neil, what about the economy? 

 

The what?

 

Never mind...

Edited March 31, 2020 by Logosone

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Exactly, with what he acknowledged was limited data he drafted a paper so alarmist claiming 500,000 dead in the UK, 20 million in the US, that led the UK and US governments to take a certain policy.

 

Then he revised his paper in a hurry, because he realised it was wrong, blaming it on new data, but the paper actually still left out the very key measure to contain the pandemic, testing and isolating. The UK government revises its policy completely on the basis of this flawed paper.

 

Of course when everyone's infected and there's herd immunity but considerably less than 20,000 fatalities he'll say "See, it all worked, social distancing was the key, just like I told you, exactly the amount of dead I told you.", because of course his paper has tables with "possible outcomes" listing everything from 490 to 490,000 and all figures inbetween. It's not his first rodeo after all. Another empire award.

 

Oh and btw, Neil, what about the economy? 

 

The what?

 

Never mind...

Out of curiosity, what data are you using to make your predictions?

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, ivor bigun said:

Corbyn was not doing it to save the country ,he was just going to give the money away and bankrupt the country in the process ,just like the last Labour govt"sorry the moneys all gone" now who wrote that and what party was he from?

Corbyn was not doing it ..........I would just stop there.........Corbyn was not in power, he never was is power, he was never remotely likely to be in power outside the wet dreams of teenage Momentum members, and I guess you are not one of those!!

Corbyn was not doing anything, and was never going to do anything. He certainly did his best to bankrupt the country by supporting Brexit, but that is another topic. Meanwhile please find a replacement bugbear, Corbyn is history.

[bristolboy]

54 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Exactly, with what he acknowledged was limited data he drafted a paper so alarmist claiming 500,000 dead in the UK, 20 million in the US, that led the UK and US governments to take a certain policy.

 

Then he revised his paper in a hurry, because he realised it was wrong, blaming it on new data, but the paper actually still left out the very key measure to contain the pandemic, testing and isolating. The UK government revises its policy completely on the basis of this flawed paper.

 

Of course when everyone's infected and there's herd immunity but considerably less than 20,000 fatalities he'll say "See, it all worked, social distancing was the key, just like I told you, exactly the amount of dead I told you.", because of course his paper has tables with "possible outcomes" listing everything from 490 to 490,000 and all figures inbetween. It's not his first rodeo after all. Another empire award.

 

Oh and btw, Neil, what about the economy? 

 

The what?

 

Never mind...

And yet social distancing looks like it's succeeding. Just as it looks like it's succeeding in the USA.

[samran]

2 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

Corbyn was not doing it to save the country ,he was just going to give the money away and bankrupt the country in the process ,just like the last Labour govt"sorry the moneys all gone" now who wrote that and what party was he from?

No doubt you and all the other rugged individualists will be handing the money back out of principal!

[3NUMBAS]

china needs to be cut off for good before the next virus kills off humanity for good and nobody survives because its to virulent

[3NUMBAS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq-uCJtN9IY

 

goats take over a welsh town

[Stargeezr]

Well at least Boris is not like Trump,  where Trump has to keep adjusting about when

he thinks the Covid virus will get under control in the US.  What  a complete Knob.

Geezer

[Nigel Garvie]

14 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

china needs to be cut off for good before the next virus kills off humanity for good and nobody survives because its to virulent

Well it is an arguable point, but the argument would be much stronger if all the viruses came from China - they don't. The most deadly one "Spanish" flu has the strongest evidence pointing to Kansas as the origin, shouldn't we cut off the US also to be on the safe side? Oh yes AIDS and Ebola came from Africa, better cut them off also. MERS came from -well you guessed it - the Middle East, there's another to "Cut off" as you put it. 

 

VIRUSES DON'T RECOGNISE BORDERS (and don't have Nationalities either). There is no such thing as a Chinese or American virus (Although Trump fits that description pretty well)

 

The puzzling thing is why the "Next virus" that wipes out humanity, hasn't already arrived. Conditions were much less sanitary in the Middle Ages and before. There is a theory that the more deadly the virus, the less contagious it is. This is a bugs eternal Darwinian natural selection problem, if it kills all it's hosts it ain't going nowhere in the longer term.