UK coronavirus death rate to stay high top medic says, as toll passes 4,300

[rooster59]

UK coronavirus death rate to stay high top medic says, as toll passes 4,300

By Kate Holton and Guy Faulconbridge

 

A man wearing a protective face mask is seen passing Brixton Station, as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, London, Britain, April 3, 2020. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/Files

 

LONDON (Reuters) - High fatalities from the coronavirus will continue in the United Kingdom for at least another week or two even if people comply with stringent isolation measures, health authorities said on Saturday as the country's death toll jumped to 4,313.

 

The toll went up by 708 in 24 hours, the highest daily rise so far in Britain. A 5-year-old child with an underlying health problem was among the dead, along with at least 40 who had no known previous known conditions.

 

"With great sadness the number of deaths continues to be high," Stephen Powis, the national medical director of the English health service, said at a Downing Street news conference.

 

"Unfortunately that is likely to continue over the next week or two until we get on top and stop this virus," Powis said.

 

The government has put Britain into a widespread shutdown, closing pubs, restaurants and nearly all shops, while ordering people to stay home unless it is absolutely essential to venture out.

 

Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove repeatedly declined to say when the lockdown could be lifted but said it would depend on whether people adhered to the stringent rules.

 

The lockdown began nearly two weeks ago, with a pledge to review the measures after three weeks.

 

"If we relax our adherence to the rules we increase the risk for others," he said, offering his condolences to the family of the 5-year-old.

 

Britain initially took a restrained approach on tactics to curb the spread but Prime Minister Boris Johnson changed tack and imposed stringent social-distancing measures after modelling showed a quarter of a million people in the country could die.

 

Johnson has himself been in self-isolation after testing positive for the novel coronavirus. His pregnant fiancee, Carrie Symonds, said on Twitter she had spent the past week in bed with symptoms but was now feeling better.

 

"I’ve spent the past week in bed with the main symptoms of Coronavirus. I haven’t needed to be tested and, after seven days of rest, I feel stronger and I’m on the mend," Symonds said.

 

LENGTH OF LOCKDOWN

 

Countries around the world are grappling with tens of thousands of coronavirus deaths and more than a million cases.

But the massive efforts to contain the spread have virtually stalled the economy and some have started to question if a global depression will cost more lives in the long run.

 

British health officials have said the peak of the deaths could come on Easter Sunday, April 12, and Powis told a news conference that new cases had stabilised in recent days.

 

Hospital admissions also plateaued in London, the epicentre of the British outbreak, while increasing in the Midlands and the north west of England. As of 0800 GMT on Saturday, some 41,903 people had tested positive out of a total of 183,190 people tested.

 

Neil Ferguson, a government adviser and professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, said the lockdown was unlikely to be lifted until the end of May.

 

"We want to move to a situation where at least by the end of May we're able to substitute some less intensive measures, more based on technology and testing, for the complete lockdown we have now," he told BBC Radio.

 

However a second government adviser, the chief pandemic modeller Graham Medley, said he feared Britain had painted itself into a corner, with no clear exit from a strategy that would damage the economic and mental well-being of many people.

 

Almost one million people have applied for welfare benefits in just two weeks in Britain. Some major investment banks have cautioned that the world economy is set for the worst contraction since World War Two.

 

"In broad terms are we going to continue to harm children to protect vulnerable people, or not?" Medley said.

 

(Reporting by Kate Holton; Editing by Angus MacSwan and Frances Kerry)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-05

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[darksidedog]

24 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

he feared Britain had painted itself into a corner, with no clear exit from a strategy that would damage the economic and mental well-being of many people.

Bad situation for everyone, Joe Public and the government, who initially were criticised for not doing enough, now for maybe doing too much. Economic damage, absolutely. Mental health problems, guaranteed. It is a very painful cure, if it is indeed a cure, which at some point needs to be balanced with the price being paid. If Boris and friends aren't spending a goodly amount of time praying for miracles right about now, they probably should be.

[Bluespunk]

54 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Neil Ferguson, a government adviser and professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, said the lockdown was unlikely to be lifted until the end of May.

Speaking a truth which gove dares not. 

[Chomper Higgot]

Johnson’s callous herd immunity experiment has failed.

 

Interestingly the government are predicting when the peak mortality will occur but have failed to give the associated estimate of deaths.

 

 

 

[from the home of CC]

10 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Johnson’s callous herd immunity experiment has failed.

 

Interestingly the government are predicting when the peak mortality will occur but have failed to give the associated estimate of deaths.

 

 

 

There were some medical experts that did, hence the changed tack. Hopefully folks will now realize sacrifices will be needed to avoid the worst of all possible outcomes..

[Jip99]

13 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Johnson’s callous herd immunity experiment has failed.

 

Interestingly the government are predicting when the peak mortality will occur but have failed to give the associated estimate of deaths.

 

 

 

 

The widely touted figure is 20,000. I believe that a health ministry spokesperson said less than 20,000 deaths would be a “good result”.

 

I own a crematorium so I am aware that within the cremation industry those sort of numbers are being factored into current planning.

[Logosone]

25 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Johnson’s callous herd immunity experiment has failed.

 

Interestingly the government are predicting when the peak mortality will occur but have failed to give the associated estimate of deaths.

 

 

 

The UK is not following a 'herd immunity' strategy. It is now following a suppression strategy, which is largely based on social distancing.

 

The social distancing strategy is a monumental failure.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Logosone

[Chomper Higgot]

23 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The UK is not following a 'herd immunity' strategy. It is now following a suppression strategy, which is largely based on social distancing.

 

The social distancing strategy is a monumental failure.

The UK initially enacted a policy of non intervention with Johnson’s herd immunity experiment, Johnson has since done a U-turn, the virus hasn’t.

 

Your constant claims wrt to social distancing are debunked by a rather simple logical argument:  

 

If you don’t get close to an infected person you can’t catch the virus off them.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Chomper Higgot

[Laughing Gravy]

You just can't please everyone. Done things to quickly/slowly. Not doing enough, doing to much. No matter what people will complain.

 

Many people should take more responsibility themselves and not look at everyone else for blame.

[Basil B]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Johnson’s callous herd immunity experiment has failed.

 

Interestingly the government are predicting when the peak mortality will occur but have failed to give the associated estimate of deaths.

 

 

 

It is easy to predict with a near shutdown, it looks like the rate of deaths is starting to level off, but basically all we have done is put a tuiniqua on and if we we do not keep a tight grip on it the number will hemorrhage again. 

[Chomper Higgot]

42 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

You just can't please everyone. Done things to quickly/slowly. Not doing enough, doing to much. No matter what people will complain.

 

Many people should take more responsibility themselves and not look at everyone else for blame.

Conversely, observing the government embarking on Johnson’s callous herd immunity experiment, his U-turn in the face of criticism from a whole bunch of health experts and the undeniable fact that his failed experiment has resulted in the virus spreading unhindered in the population.

 

Yeh, I know you just can’t please everyone.

[happydays]

92% of people who have died from coronavirus in the UK are over 60.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/03/coronavirus-deaths-age-uk-12506448/

Couldn’t the lockdown be restricted to over-60s (& also under-60s with pre-existing conditions) allowing everyone else to get back to work? This would create herd immunity amongst the healthiest sector of the population. Those stuck at home could be incentivised to stay in by being given free broadband, free food deliveries, etc. In return they would have to agree to being monitored to ensure they comply. 

[Chomper Higgot]

6 minutes ago, happydays said:

92% of people who have died from coronavirus in the UK are over 60.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/03/coronavirus-deaths-age-uk-12506448/

Couldn’t the lockdown be restricted to over-60s (& also under-60s with pre-existing conditions) allowing everyone else to get back to work? This would create herd immunity amongst the healthiest sector of the population. Those stuck at home could be incentivised to stay in by being given free broadband, free food deliveries, etc. In return they would have to agree to being monitored to ensure they comply. 

Johnson tried this, it failed.

 

 

[GarryP]

5 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Conversely, observing the government embarking on Johnson’s callous herd immunity experiment, his U-turn in the face of criticism from a whole bunch of health experts and the undeniable fact that his failed experiment has resulted in the virus spreading unhindered in the population.

 

Yeh, I know you just can’t please everyone.

You do realize that he was following advice of experts who supported herd immunity. He did not make the decision without reason, which is what you appear to be claiming. You should be blaming the experts that recommended that direction.  

 

Only later, with further input from more experts, was the decision made to change tack. Again, a decision made on the advice of experts. 

[happydays]

10 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Johnson tried this, it failed.

 

 

Johnson tried this for the entire population hence the estimate of 250,000 deaths. Restricting the lockdown to the most vulnerable would be far less damaging.

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The UK initially enacted a policy of non intervention with Johnson’s herd immunity experiment, Johnson has since done a U-turn, the virus hasn’t.

 

Your constant claims wrt to social distancing are debunked by a rather simple logical argument:  

 

If you don’t get close to an infected person you can’t catch the virus off them.

 

 

Herd immunity was never tried to its full consequence. The UK, correctly, first wanted to use that policy. But then Boris Johnson had a chin wobble and rowed back because Neil Ferguson suddenly came with a wholly revised paper and so instead of herd immunity the UK opted for "suppression" by  social distancing (as it had no test kits or icu beds).

 

Your simple argument is indeed extremely simple, and like all simple answers way off the mark.

 

Not even hard core social distancing extremists would expect it to end the virus, only to delay the spread by an indeterminate number of days. 

 

The point is that sooner or later you will get close to a person who has the virus, because the virus spreads by stealth and faster than any other. To hope it will just go away if we all stay at home is merely delaying the issue, not solving it.

[puipuitom]

2 hours ago, happydays said:

92% of people who have died from coronavirus in the UK are over 60.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/03/coronavirus-deaths-age-uk-12506448/

Couldn’t the lockdown be restricted to over-60s (& also under-60s with pre-existing conditions) allowing everyone else to get back to work? This would create herd immunity amongst the healthiest sector of the population. Those stuck at home could be incentivised to stay in by being given free broadband, free food deliveries, etc. In return they would have to agree to being monitored to ensure they comply. 

It's the younger who infect the elder. That's why in Netherlands care homes for the elderly are locked down for weeks already after a strong warning period NOT to visit grandpa & -ma.

In the Netherlands, with 17,2 million people, a 16.627, a 6.622 taken into the hospitals, 1.360 in intensive care beds ( on a total of 2100 already), and 1.651 officially died because of Covid-19. However here, seen the statistical increase of deaths, this number should we a +20-25%, as all, who died without an official test, -but according the doctors for nearly sure because of this virus - are left out of this statistics. So, the reality... around 2000-2100. Same for the real contaminated: should be a factor 4-8 x , so 65-130.000.  Far away from "heard immunity. To reach.. 13 million, we are now max at 1%. Imagine the deaths are also at 1%... we have to face in NL 200.000 deaths... to reach that heard immunity... Even a 100.000 , mostly elderly + already some underlying sickness like obesity, diabetes-2, asthma.. a lousy job for the health care from end of the covis-19 crisis. In case of the same for the UK... problems for NHS will be then over for at least a generation.

 

For Germany, with 80 million inhabitants: 96.108 cases confirmed, 1.446 deaths, 26.400 recovered, and... 40,000 intensive care beds... With this on all fronts defeating the rest of Europe by far. https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/04/covid-19-coronavirus-breakdown-of-deaths-and-infections-worldwide

 

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/04/covid-19-coronavirus-breakdown-of-deaths-and-infections-worldwide

 

My condolences for the British with the by such a majority voted Boris-Cummings Government.

However, the real disaster will be in Trump Country.

Edited April 5, 2020 by puipuitom

[puipuitom]

48 minutes ago, Logosone said:

To hope it will just go away if we all stay at home is merely delaying the issue, not solving it.

My explanation: all European governments + people were completely surprized by the fast spread of the disease. Football match with 40.000 visitors 18 Feb Bergamo-Valencia + all neglected the quarantine, to start in Italy, where people left their zone to do shopping outside, even a Slovenian TV crew in, make a report and went out again. Saturday 22 Feb on many European TV-stations, as curiosity brings viewers = money in.

Then .. the Austrians, complethely following the example of "JAWS", did NOT close their sky-resorts, as.. it was high tourist season. Result: covid-19 spread all over Europe, with the British thinking in WO1 and WO2 style: "we are safe behind our sea barrier".  With the lockdowns, and semi-quarantine + 1.5 mtr distance , the governments hope to get the original situation of beginning Feb back and hope being able to isolate then new cases + those infected around. With some luck also testing facilities ready, protection clothes available ( dit the EU countries already started up their own production ? NO, of course not... from China cheaper, if they are able to supply; US buyers take everything they can lay their hands on, even offering 2-4x the price at the Chinese loading airports. Remind: health care in the USA is BIG BUSINESS) 

 

Means: even when we can bring the contamination back to the same as beginning Feb, till infestations will enter from the outside, as In Middle East , Africa,  Latin America, close-to-nothing is done, and.. in Trump Country... we will see a disaster... Only a closure - on the Chinese way = shoot to kill for everyone who tries to cross- of all from outside the EU might bring a chance.

And the UK... is on its own, as they so clearly voted for.

Edited April 5, 2020 by puipuitom
some additions and corrections

[Chomper Higgot]

54 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Herd immunity was never tried to its full consequence. The UK, correctly, first wanted to use that policy. But then Boris Johnson had a chin wobble and rowed back because Neil Ferguson suddenly came with a wholly revised paper and so instead of herd immunity the UK opted for "suppression" by  social distancing (as it had no test kits or icu beds).

 

Your simple argument is indeed extremely simple, and like all simple answers way off the mark.

 

Not even hard core social distancing extremists would expect it to end the virus, only to delay the spread by an indeterminate number of days. 

 

The point is that sooner or later you will get close to a person who has the virus, because the virus spreads by stealth and faster than any other. To hope it will just go away if we all stay at home is merely delaying the issue, not solving it.

Who here claimed social distancing would ‘end the virus’?

 

Away with you and your strawman.

[roquefort]

"And the UK... is on its own, as they so clearly voted for".

 

And the EU? At the first sign of a crisis squabbling amongst each other about who should pay the cost, closing internal borders and fighting each other to get hold of vital medical supplies. When the s*** hits the fan, you get to see the reality of this failed experiment. Every country will look after their own first.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

There were some medical experts that did, hence the changed tack. Hopefully folks will now realize sacrifices will be needed to avoid the worst of all possible outcomes..

You and your family first then - for the greater good and all that.

 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Chomper Higgot

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, GarryP said:

You do realize that he was following advice of experts who supported herd immunity. He did not make the decision without reason, which is what you appear to be claiming. You should be blaming the experts that recommended that direction.  

 

Only later, with further input from more experts, was the decision made to change tack. Again, a decision made on the advice of experts. 

I’m not at all sure what advice Johnson followed, neither are you.

 

The policy he adopted was diametrically opposite to that recommended by very many experts, by the WHO and as already successfully applied by other nations.

 

Johnson made a U-turn because of expert advice against his callous and failed experiment was made public - He was demonstrated to have made a callous and tragically wrong decision.

 

With thousands dead and so many clear failures by Johnson and his government, there is a pressing case for an open and transparent investigation.

 

Lets see who gave advice, what advice they gave, what advice was accepted rejected and who the decision makers were.

[Forethat]

More and more discoveries regarding the spread of the virus is now being made. In China, tests have revealed that 4 out of 5 people infected are completely asymptomatic. In Italian news this morning, it was revealed that 40 out of 60 randomly selected people tested positive for the virus without showing any symptoms. 

 

I think it's safe to assume that the virus arrived far earlier in the UK than previously believed. In addition, given the amount of asymptomatic cases, we are likely to see the spread grow for at least a month before we'll see a decline in new cases.

 

The good thing is that IF the virus is already widespread, this will be over well before a vaccine can be developed. More than likely, the death rate will be well below the current numbers that only indicates the rate of deaths amongst the severe cases requiring hospital care.

 

 

[Cake Monster]

4,500 poor souls passed away in the UK, with its population of approx 70 Million, and yet only 3,500 died in China with its population of 1.3 Billion.

Something aint right.

 

[Chomper Higgot]

7 minutes ago, Forethat said:

More and more discoveries regarding the spread of the virus is now being made. In China, tests have revealed that 4 out of 5 people infected are completely asymptomatic. In Italian news this morning, it was revealed that 40 out of 60 randomly selected people tested positive for the virus without showing any symptoms. 

 

I think it's safe to assume that the virus arrived far earlier in the UK than previously believed. In addition, given the amount of asymptomatic cases, we are likely to see the spread grow for at least a month before we'll see a decline in new cases.

 

The good thing is that IF the virus is already widespread, this will be over well before a vaccine can be developed. More than likely, the death rate will be well below the current numbers that only indicates the rate of deaths amongst the severe cases requiring hospital care.

 

 

Those are startling ‘discoveries’ do you have links?

[Forethat]

5 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Those are startling ‘discoveries’ do you have links?

Yes, I do have links.

 

https://www.lastampa.it/topnews/primo-piano/2020/04/02/news/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-e-un-caso-di-studio-il-70-dei-donatori-di-sangue-e-positivo-1.38666481

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

 

https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/locali/2020/04/03/news/milano_la_ricerca_dell_universita_statale_i_contagi_reali_in_italia_potrebbero_essere_5_milioni_-253027121/

[Forethat]

4 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Johnson’s callous herd immunity experiment has failed.

 

Interestingly the government are predicting when the peak mortality will occur but have failed to give the associated estimate of deaths.

 

 

 

Do you have any links?

[puipuitom]

51 minutes ago, roquefort said:

"And the UK... is on its own, as they so clearly voted for".

 

And the EU? At the first sign of a crisis squabbling amongst each other about who should pay the cost, closing internal borders and fighting each other to get hold of vital medical supplies. When the s*** hits the fan, you get to see the reality of this failed experiment. Every country will look after their own first.

NONSENSE: That's why Dutch are in Belgium and German hospitals , French are in Belgium + German hospitals, medical utilities are shared, and French planes take also Belgium + Dutch tourists back, German planes the same.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/uk-discussed-joint-eu-plan-to-buy-covid-19-medical-supplies-say-officials and https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/eu-create-strategic-stockpile-medical-equipment-fight-against-coronavirus

 

Corona-bonds: "you must repair your roof when it is dry": How can I defend to the Dutch, Germans etc THEY had to go on pension at 65 and now increasing towards 67, while the French were having an over one year Yellow Vests fight against 62 going to 64, with result it stays at 62 ?

The Italian nation debt went between 2016-2019 from 134,8 % towards 136,2% of GDP, while in the same period the Dutch went from 61,9% towards 48,9% with massive austerity measurements, increase of pension age from 65 towards 66.

Already forgotten the fierce discussions betweeen Mr "Selfini" c.s. and the EU about the Italian budget 2019 ? Then it was "the f.ck to the EU rules for increase of State Debt and budget shortage % of GDP". ( as it was already for decades ) 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/italy-budget-crisis-brexit-eu-economics-public-services-giuseppe-conte-matteo-salvini-a8597466.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45954022

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-budget-europe-brussels-fight-italians/

 

The state ( public) debt in the Olive-oil countries is high, but the private very low ( see mortgages). These are in NL and especially Germany quite high. Also the "informal" economy in the south is substantial. Time to tax that and when still in shortage, of course the Germanic countries will help.

Edited April 5, 2020 by puipuitom

[puipuitom]

22 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

4,500 poor souls passed away in the UK, with its population of approx 70 Million, and yet only 3,500 died in China with its population of 1.3 Billion.

Something aint right.

In this you cannotlook to entire China, but just the Wuhan area, with a 60 million inhabitants as real focus of the disease.

For the USA you now also look to only New York as comparisson.

[Chomper Higgot]

13 minutes ago, Forethat said:

Do you have any links?

1.Herd immunity:

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1255476/UK-coronavirus-U-turn-herd-immunity-Matt-Hancock-Boris-Johnson-Government

 

2: I can’t provide a link to a number the government has not published.