Thailand reports sharp fall in new COVID-19 cases

[cornishcarlos]

56 minutes ago, rabas said:

Do you have any data or numbers to back up your claims" is no. Thank you.

 

I love it when people on here ask a question and then tell me what my answer is in the same sentence ????

Edited April 7, 2020 by cornishcarlos

[fvw53]

3 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Another day of good news, bringing the likelihood of a full on curfew even less likely. We all know that way more testing would be helpful, but I am yet to hear of a single report of masses of sick and dying crowding at the hospitals. It does seem that Thailand is being most fortunate and that the virus here is unlikely to go crazy like in Europe and the US.

I think that the Thai "wai" in stead of handshake was helpful to avoid spreading Covid-19 during the initial period

[RedPill]

Just now, fvw53 said:

I think that the Thai "wai" in stead of handshake was helpful to avoid spreading Covid-19 during the initial period

Maybe, on the flip side, they love to sit close together and share food and glasses.

 

[cornishcarlos]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Do you have any actual data, numbers for this?

 

So, back to your question... Do I have any actual data on unrecorded infections ???

 

Ummmmmm, no because they are unrecorded !!!

[Kadilo]

2 hours ago, tropo said:

...probably think most people who read these newsclips are mathematically challenged, so they can spin it any way they choose.

Or these forums

[Enoon]

3 hours ago, darksidedog said:

 but I am yet to hear of a single report of masses of sick and dying crowding at the hospitals.

You won't.

 

This is a re-post (it was written to explain the barely noticeable increase in crematorium activity) and includes a relevant reference to location of deaths: 

 

10000 deaths over 2 months would equal 69 per province per month (not counting 4 southern provinces....Islam burials).

 

With crematoriums in virtually every settlement (even the smallest) and city/town sub-district.

 

Who would notice 1 or 2 extra burnings (bear in mind that people are still also dying "as usual") in each one?

 

Even if you concentrate the deaths into more populated "hotspots" what's another 4+ burnings in a busier crematorium with a "healthy" turnover?

 

It's also possible that a significant number of deaths are taking place outside the "system", at home.

 

Which is not unusual.

 

That's a very simplified, coarse analysis, but there is so much "space" for the deaths/cremations to be lost in that they will only register when counted as a whole, collated number, compared to the normal average.

 

And you're not going to get a "real" one of those.

 

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Enoon

[DrTuner]

16 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Indonesia announces biggest daily rise in COVID-19 cases, 24 doctors now dead - CNA If this article is correct then not really

And .. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-indonesia-funerals/exclusive-jump-in-jakarta-funerals-raises-fears-of-unreported-coronavirus-deaths-idUSKBN21L2XU

 

Perhaps ASEAN has finally found a common tune, with the exception of the pesky Singaporeans that test too mutt.

[DrTuner]

19 minutes ago, elektrified said:

Rubbish. It costs 300 all the way up to 10000 depending on which test you take.

Ah, first time I see Rapid NAAT (LAMP or CRISPR based). That'd be the PTT/MIT/etc test kits.

 

EDIT: BKK Post reported on 27. March that Chula was the only provider of "strip tests", which is what those are. Also reported once approved they will be sold over the counter, which is brilliant news if true. Although they speak of serology there, not nasal swabs.

Edited April 7, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

Bumped into another inrteresting article: https://www.chula.ac.th/en/news/29259/

 

Quote

Although the King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital has a limited capacity of around 200 cases per day

Chula, 200/d capacity which apparently their new machine is supposed to increase. It's one of the major hospitals. Gives you an indication of the real testing capacities in Thailand.

[JCP108]

12 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

So, back to your question... Do I have any actual data on unrecorded infections ???

 

Ummmmmm, no because they are unrecorded !!!

What about data on people dying in Thailand of all types of deaths broken down by month? Where can we see that data? I'd like to see that and compare it to the same months last year to see if it looks like there's been a recent bump. We can still all agree that C-19 tests are not being done much here and aren't 100% reliable anyway. How do we see raw data about how many people are dying in Thailand? Anyone?

 

[marko kok prong]

Let's hope it is true.

[mixed]

18 minutes ago, RedPill said:

Maybe, on the flip side, they love to sit close together and share food and glasses.

 

Not so much of that lately 

[DrTuner]

Chula is rolling out antibody testing:

 

None of the positives will end up as "confirmed" in the MoPH stats without going through two RT-PCR reference labs. Unfortunately we, the hoi polloi, will not get access to the stats from Chula.

 

They are doing this as a screening test for the actual RT-PCR test. In the video you'll hear Dr. Narin mention it is to try to ease the burden on the testing capacity. In other words, the PCR testing capacity is very limited.

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by DrTuner

[Sir Bogdiver]

Thailand and other tropical countries are not flu and cold virus countries.  We don't have a flu season here similar to temperate and cold countries.  These type of viruses do not seem to thrive in tropical climates.  During my 37 years in Thailand I've never had the flu and usually a cold maybe once a year or less. However, when I did have a cold it did seem to take longer to heal than back in Europe and also was more severe. When I was living in Europe I had regular cold and flu infections. So infections are possible but nowhere near as prevalent here.

[bikerlou47]

Thailand has only tested 359 per million people.

It will be a long time before this country can open up with this few people being tested.

THAILAND MUST GET SERIOUS AND START TESTING IN ERNEST!

[Cake Monster]

The sharp falls are probably due to the lack of testing.

People now have restricted incomes, and the last thing they will do is spend 7,000 Baht on what they  consider to be a waste of time.

7,000 Baht will feed their family for a decent amount of time, or will allow them to keep the Car or House.

 

[ben2talk]

18 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

What about data on people dying in Thailand of all types of deaths broken down by month? Where can we see that data? I'd like to see that and compare it to the same months last year to see if it looks like there's been a recent bump. We can still all agree that C-19 tests are not being done much here and aren't 100% reliable anyway. How do we see raw data about how many people are dying in Thailand? Anyone?

 

Useless - with fewer people out, there is a slight reduction in road deaths which in itself would be a massive shift in numbers. Remember, many road deaths avoid recording by dying later...

 

The fact is, COVID may have saved many more lives than it's taken.

[tropo]

31 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

What about data on people dying in Thailand of all types of deaths broken down by month? Where can we see that data? I'd like to see that and compare it to the same months last year to see if it looks like there's been a recent bump. We can still all agree that C-19 tests are not being done much here and aren't 100% reliable anyway. How do we see raw data about how many people are dying in Thailand? Anyone?

 

The information you're looking for is freely available.

 

CIA Factbook:

 

Population (2020 est.) = 68,977,400

 

Death rate: 8.3 deaths/1000 pop (from all causes)

 

Per year: 572,512

Per month: 47,709

Per week: 11,009

Per day: 1,568

Per hour: 65.33

Per minute: 1.09

 

So far about 26 Covid-19 deaths have been reported, in 9.5 weeks since February 1. That's one person every 2.5 days.

 

You don't need a monthly breakdown of the death rate. It's a drop in the ocean and wouldn't be noticed in any calculations.

Edited April 7, 2020 by tropo

[bander]

Fake news to help the Thai stock market from kollapsing.

When the news was released Thai stocks gained around 7%

 

[chang1]

2 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

 

I haven't read much from people claiming there are large numbers of unreported deaths...

But you are right that there are vast numbers of unrecorded infections.

As is the case around the world... So the actual death rates due to Covid are much less than being reported % wise...

 

I picked a random year again, 2014.. In the U.K over 11,000 men and over 15,000 women died of influenza/pneumonia.. 26,000 deaths from flu !!! That's an average year...

 

We are being conned and manipulated...

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

 

Looking at table 7 on page 51 of this report shows how bad flu is for the over 65s. I suspect covid19 affects that age group just as bad.

To say we are being conned is a bit strong. Until you can give some evidence of this and reasons why, such as who is gaining from the con, we must assume you are trying to spread fake news. People like you need to learn to do some fact checking before making stupid comments like that with little qualifying information. There are many stupid people who believe any such rubbish - flat earth believers etc. 

Now let's look into your claim a little deeper as you could be right.

This is a new virus that no one knows much about.

1 - We are learning more every day so we can change how we react to it as we see fit.

2 - How to react is a very tough call for a government, do you save lives or the economy? Either way you will be criticized. 

3 - How you think we should react will change depending on how covid19 is likely to affect you. If you are over 65 or live/work with older people you may not worry about the economy as much as a young person living alone. 

4 - Hospitals are run very near to maximum capacity already, especially in the flu season.  If our hospitals are full and you cannot get treatment after an accident or illness you may change your views.

5 - Covid19 might be like flu and able to mutate and become far worse - bubonic plague had a death rate of 95%.

6 - We are in the world of the snowflake generation, where no-one is allowed to suffer or die. 

7 - We still do not know how immune someone is after recovering. Can you catch it again and spread it again?

8 - We don't know if a vaccine is even possible yet alone when it can be produced in quantity. 

9 - No one is gaining from the lock downs. 

10 - 26000 can easily die a year from flu but how many could covid19 kill if no restrictions were imposed? Like everyone else you don't know but it looks like many more. 

 

Taking the above into account,  is there a better way to proceed?

So far I think we are not doing too bad although I think all unnecessary travel should have been stopped as soon as it became known how bad it was in China. Quarantine for those returning or in contact with the infection, should have been a month well away from people not just self isolation. This could have delayed the lockdown by months. 

Should we all be locked down? I think if you are under 65 and unlikely to be in contact with anyone who is in a vulnerable group, you should have the choice to carry on as normal or otherwise self isolate. Then much more resources can be used to keep the vulnerable safe. 

Eg. My father who is in his 80s lives with us so we should stay at home, my brother who lives nearby with his family should be able to carry on working as normal but stay away from my home. Supermarkets can do the food deliveries. This would allow the country to run fairly normal and build up the herd immunity (if that is possible). 

It is not a con, it is a way of dealing with it. Is it the best way, almost certainly not, only time will tell. How many people are you willing to let suffer and die for your freedom?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[spidermike007]

Continued good news. Now, we have seen a consistent drop over the last five days. Around 100 cases a day, four and five days ago, then, 81, then 51, and now 31. This barely existent virus in Thailand is disappearing fast.

 

There is a big difference between the 366 new cases in Thailand, and 10 new deaths in the past 5 days, and approximately 150,000 new cases and over 7,000 new deaths in the US.

 

I double down on my assertion that the virus appears to be leveling off here. Just look at the numbers.

 

And for those of you who are skeptical of the numbers keep in mind that they stayed at 100-200 total cases for weeks, before they started ticking up. So, there does appear to be some accounting of the caseloads. Just as in the US, the testing is still limited. But, my assertion of the positive effects of the heat remain in place. Alot will assert fake numbers, lack of testing, etc. Believe what you choose to believe. This is not the Zombie Apocalypse. It may be in the US, and parts of Europe, but NOT HERE.

 

Research from a laboratory-grown copy of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes the COVID-19 illness shows that heat affects the virus and impacts its behavior, a top pathologist said new research has shown. But other infectious disease experts aren't yet convinced. “In cold environments, there is longer virus survival than warm ones,” Hong Kong University pathology professor John Nicholls told AccuWeather exclusively. “Temperature could significantly change COVID-19 transmission,” the authors note in the study. They also pointed out that the “virus is highly sensitive to high temperature.” 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800

Edited April 7, 2020 by spidermike007

[gamesgplayemail]

3 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Another day of good news, bringing the likelihood of a full on curfew even less likely. We all know that way more testing would be helpful, but I am yet to hear of a single report of masses of sick and dying crowding at the hospitals. It does seem that Thailand is being most fortunate and that the virus here is unlikely to go crazy like in Europe and the US.

 

I still think that 24 curfew is needed for Songkran. Too many idiots here, and hard to check them all.

Maybe 1 week 24 curfew ?

 

 

[canerandagio]

4 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Another day of good news, bringing the likelihood of a full on curfew even less likely. We all know that way more testing would be helpful, but I am yet to hear of a single report of masses of sick and dying crowding at the hospitals. It does seem that Thailand is being most fortunate and that the virus here is unlikely to go crazy like in Europe and the US.

Couldn't agree more.

[jlwilliamsjr18]

The Thai Way.

Anyone interested in an island in the Pacific for 1000 USD?  

[wazzupnow]

4 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Another day of good news, bringing the likelihood of a full on curfew even less likely. We all know that way more testing would be helpful, but I am yet to hear of a single report of masses of sick and dying crowding at the hospitals. It does seem that Thailand is being most fortunate and that the virus here is unlikely to go crazy like in Europe and the US.

nobody goes crazy with temperatures from 38+ celcius even a virus is to lazy to move

[bencnx]

4 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Another day of good news, bringing the likelihood of a full on curfew even less likely. We all know that way more testing would be helpful, but I am yet to hear of a single report of masses of sick and dying crowding at the hospitals. It does seem that Thailand is being most fortunate and that the virus here is unlikely to go crazy like in Europe and the US.

There is no mass sick and dying anywhere in the world. In France, last year 600 000 persons died so 50 000 per month. Up to now around 10 000 person died form the virus. So it is penuts in statistics. So we are in the phenomal collective allunication that will bring the world to break.

Edited April 7, 2020 by bencnx

[tropo]

9 minutes ago, bikerlou47 said:

Thailand has only tested 359 per million people.

It will be a long time before this country can open up with this few people being tested.

THAILAND MUST GET SERIOUS AND START TESTING IN ERNEST!

That would mean they have tested 24,762 people (0.0359%) in 2 months.

 

In the US they test about 0.04% (125,000) of the population EVERY DAY.

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, bencnx said:

There is no mass sick and dying anywhere in the world. In France, last year 600 000 persons died so 50 000 per month. Up to now around 10 000 person died form the virus. So it is penuts in statistics. So we are in the phenomal collective allunication that will bring the world to break.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-indonesia-funerals/exclusive-jump-in-jakarta-funerals-raises-fears-of-unreported-coronavirus-deaths-idUSKBN21L2XU

 

It's showing in stats too. You just have to find the ones they forgot to massage.

Edited April 7, 2020 by DrTuner

[Tchooptip]

I am in Koh Samui. My wife stranded in Isaan told me yesterday her daughter, 31 years old,  was not well with a fever of 39 degree centigrade, they went to see a doctor, he sent her home with paracetamol, some of you, maybe, will rememder that I said a few days ago my wife had also a same high fever and was sent home in the same way, I called my DIL two hour ago because I wanted to speak to HER, she told me I am too tired for walking and my eyes are hurting a lot ??? Impossible to know if she had coronavirus or not, maybe not, she has no problem for breathing...BUT when I see that, I do not believe at all any fifures of this government anymore, I do not pretend they are lying about it, I say and I'm sure they have no idea at all about the real situation, mainly in the countryside for let's not forget 80% of the people have very little to mild symptoms! And you can't compare the number of doctors or the medical system to western countries.

What scares me a little is that in the same house are my wife's parents, both over 80 and both not in very good health. 

[QPRFC]

Should the title read "fail" instead of "fall" ?

 

Or "fail in reporting true case figures" ?