What are the chances of a complete financial meltdown?

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, TopDeadSenter said:

A month ago I would have said complete financial armageddon is almost guaranteed. Now I consider that was a mistake. Why? Because the FED and all central banks will not allow it to happen. They will keep providing stimulus for as long and as much as it takes to maintain liquidity and normality across markets. It's only national debt! I'm hoping for a 30-50% pullback from here but not expecting to see it materialize. 

Your hope is a really great one that most people in all countries should have as a hope everyday in their life. Unfortunately I am sad to agree with that you are right, and it will not be seen. Pullback of national dept and stimulus package, is most of the time something that will be forced to work against each other instead making it a little bit worse as a result.

However, welcome to the reality club. I was always 100 % sure that the markets would not crash nor that any armageddon would be a reality. There are to many strong forces that would loose to much on that concept. Again a concept that only would benefit the low income earners and the poor. That is a category of people on earth that are never allowed to win. There is a reason for that, because that is also a concept that would create chaos. One thing stands totally clear, though. The thing that has happened is going to be felt by many for a very long time, and the effects for some is total devastation. Again, we are mostly talking about lower class and poor people like the working class heroes.

One more thing that appears is opportunities for people that are flexible and can shift their focus from one work to another or in any other way create success for themself and their families. A new gold rush will be created, but this time with focus on creativity, ideas and flexibility as the tools to adapt to the new world.

[Snow Leopard]

1 hour ago, TopDeadSenter said:

A month ago I would have said complete financial armageddon is almost guaranteed. Now I consider that was a mistake. Why? Because the FED and all central banks will not allow it to happen. They will keep providing stimulus for as long and as much as it takes to maintain liquidity and normality across markets. It's only national debt! I'm hoping for a 30-50% pullback from here but not expecting to see it materialize. 

What about all the US$ residing outside of the USA? When countries start to realise that their holdings in US$ are worth nothing and have been devalued into worthless paper then all them USD's will start flooding back into the US to buy assets and goods that have some value left. Inflation. 

[Ginger Tea]

19 hours ago, Leaver said:

Investors from ll around the world will be flocking to Thai banks because their deposit is guaranteed up to 5 million baht.   ????????

 

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

Only up until August this year.

Yes it will be only 1,000,000 baht from 11th August this year.

 

 

[jadee]

My biggest surprise so far has been that Bitcoin isn't 'filling the void'. The current situation where central banks are printing money is exactly the sort of climate that I thought bitcoin was supposed to 'thrive' in, but it isn't. From what I read, central banks are considering issuing digital currencies linked to the national currencies - like a crypto-RMB or crypto-USD. It seems that bitcoin won't have the leading status that proponents believed it would. 

[leggo]

19 hours ago, Leaver said:

Investors from ll around the world will be flocking to Thai banks because their deposit is guaranteed up to 5 million baht.   ????????

Don't think you know much about finance - they have never and will never flock to secondary currency markets as there is a enormous chance that these currencies will be devalued - so if you buy x amount when you need to sell you'll probably get x minus !!!

 

[BORRISGOODENUF]

Well, if residing in the U.S, anything can happen and probably will. A government that can't be trusted, a Conman for a president, Oh well, such is life!!!

[Darkside Gray]

Pretty good I would say, the markets have crashed, industries are at a stand still, governments are borrowing to spend money, a toxic mix for a melt down.

[Brickbat]

Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund , using maths and history and comparisons , believes we are headed towards a Depression, similar to 1929. 
zero interest rates, debt ballon, trade war , rising power threatening the super power plus other similarities.

 

and now the Virus. Very contagious and reoccurring in patients that have recovered! Some businesses will prosper. Others will fail. Certainly we are headed for a recession. Wait for the numbers to come out. That will panick those all Gung ho investors.

[scubascuba3]

Estimated increase in unemployment is 195 million worldwide caused by govts actions. Check your own country to see if the restrictions are worth the financial cost

[Enoon]

 

COVID crisis is a world changer.

 

But unlikely that "Gravity" will disappear.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chilli42]

16 hours ago, InfinityandBeyond said:

If recall correctly she had returned from the US in March. Occupation was not identified. Trying to find the link but it is somewhere on thaivisa. 

They are now finding cases that they believe are the return of the same virus that went dormant and returned ... not necessarily a new infection.  Would not be a big surprise as this is how many virus work.

[Brunolem]

Now the economy is frozen.

 

What happens when it unfreezes?

 

There you have your answer OP

[Caldera]

What are the chances? Less than 1% would be my guess. Nobody wants the peasants to revolt, and that applies to each and every country. Much easier to keep printing money and thus to defer the problem by increasing inflation. Worked a treat before. ????

 

 

[Dazinoz]

5 minutes ago, chilli42 said:

They are now finding cases that they believe are the return of the same virus that went dormant and returned ... not necessarily a new infection.  Would not be a big surprise as this is how many virus work.

I contracted the Ross River virus in Australia back in 1995. I believe i keep getting recurring bouts of it because of the symptoms but often don't test for it.

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Ginger Tea said:

 

Yes it will be only 1,000,000 baht from 11th August this year.

 

 

Postponed until next year

Edited April 11, 2020 by Brunolem

[Dazinoz]

3 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Now the economy is frozen.

 

What happens when it unfreezes?

 

There you have your answer OP

A meltdown.

[AAArdvark]

Invest in toilet paper or bum guns.

[topt]

2 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

Only up until August this year.

It has just been extended to August 2021.

 

[Dazinoz]

1 minute ago, AAArdvark said:

Invest in toilet paper or bum guns.

I was going to vote for bum guns but if things get really bad maybe services like water supply will fail. So stock up on toilet paper. Maybe the Aussies not so stupid after all.????

[chilli42]

Whether you believe this guy or not we are in for a world of Financial pain over the next 5-10 years.  Fiat currency is being debased by central banks all over the world to backstop the credit bubble created by corporate borrowing (from low interest rates). In the shirt term the Central Banks might be successful.  However, the debt bubble is too big to solve ... and the Central Banks have now no tools left.  Stock market, which is quite small compared to debt markets is in real trouble.  Stock buy backs are over and this has been a big tribe of stock growth.  Gold, not sure ...but physical gold (if you can find it in any quantity now) has a hefty premium on paper gold.  Of course the USA outlawed the ownership of physical gold by citizens under FDR‘S leadership so there is precedent.  You will see a rapid migration away from paper to digital currency in every country.  Take away paper money and precious metals and you are now owned.

 

the point is not whether any one of these pundits are correct.  What you must do is prepare yourself financially should any of these situations come to pass.  One thing for sure things will not be “normal” again for a very long time.  I feel my generation (Under the leadership of corrupt government and the greed of the top 1%) has fx@$ed everything up and now our children will have to pay the price.

[Brunolem]

5 minutes ago, Caldera said:

What are the chances? Less than 1% would be my guess. Nobody wants the peasants to revolt, and that applies to each and every country. Much easier to keep printing money and thus to defer the problem by increasing inflation. Worked a treat before. ????

 

 

Worked before indeed...the examples abound, from Weimar Germany to today's Venezuela...

 

If printing money could replace a working economy, why should we even bother to go to work?

 

And if we could pile on debt infinitely without consequences, why not have the state employ everybody at 25,000 dollar per month?

 

Our generation is not the first to try to defy the basic laws of economics, yet contrary to what we may think, we are not smarter than our predecessors, but probably far more full of ourselves because, you know, we have smartphones and the internet, so we are all knowledgeable beings (at least in porn)...

 

 

[Snow Leopard]

1 hour ago, jadee said:

My biggest surprise so far has been that Bitcoin isn't 'filling the void'. The current situation where central banks are printing money is exactly the sort of climate that I thought bitcoin was supposed to 'thrive' in, but it isn't. From what I read, central banks are considering issuing digital currencies linked to the national currencies - like a crypto-RMB or crypto-USD. It seems that bitcoin won't have the leading status that proponents believed it would. 

Give Bitcoin time and allow the market to stabilise. Once everyone realises how much the FED has devalued the USD then it will start to rise. A USD Crypto will still be suseptable to excess currency printing. Also it will make it easier for the government to steal your money from inside the system. 

[Dazinoz]

2 minutes ago, chilli42 said:

the point is not whether any one of these pundits are correct.  What you must do is prepare yourself financially should any of these situations come to pass.  One thing for sure things will not be “normal” again for a very long time.  I feel my generation (Under the leadership of corrupt government and the greed of the top 1%) has fx@$ed everything up and now our children will have to pay the price.

I think that there are too many people wearing rose coloured glasses. Its good to be optimistic but I think we need to be realistic and prepare the best way we can. What is the best way? Who knows as there has never really been a situation like this.

[Snow Leopard]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

Worked before indeed...the examples abound, from Weimar Germany to today's Venezuela...

 

If printing money could replace a working economy, why should we even bother to go to work?

 

And if we could pile on debt infinitely without consequences, why not have the state employ everybody at 25,000 dollar per month?

 

Our generation is not the first to try to defy the basic laws of economics, yet contrary to what we may think, we are not smarter than our predecessors, but probably far more full of ourselves because, you know, we have smartphones and the internet, so we are all knowledgeable beings (at least in porn)...

 

 

Well said and spot on. Just one more thing to add. Piling on debt and deficit spending transfers the wealth of the middle class to the ones on the inside. 

[Brunolem]

5 minutes ago, chilli42 said:

Whether you believe this guy or not we are in for a world of Financial pain over the next 5-10 years.  Fiat currency is being debased by central banks all over the world to backstop the credit bubble created by corporate borrowing (from low interest rates). In the shirt term the Central Banks might be successful.  However, the debt bubble is too big to solve ... and the Central Banks have now no tools left.  Stock market, which is quite small compared to debt markets is in real trouble.  Stock buy backs are over and this has been a big tribe of stock growth.  Gold, not sure ...but physical gold (if you can find it in any quantity now) has a hefty premium on paper gold.  Of course the USA outlawed the ownership of physical gold by citizens under FDR‘S leadership so there is precedent.  You will see a rapid migration away from paper to digital currency in every country.  Take away paper money and precious metals and you are now owned.

 

the point is not whether any one of these pundits are correct.  What you must do is prepare yourself financially should any of these situations come to pass.  One thing for sure things will not be “normal” again for a very long time.  I feel my generation (Under the leadership of corrupt government and the greed of the top 1%) has fx@$ed everything up and now our children will have to pay the price.

Right!

Prepare yourself...better be prepared and ultimately not needing it, than the opposite.

 

The governments have not a clue about when and how to reopen business...they are like the guy in front of a ticking nuclear bomb, wondering how to defuse it.

 

McKinsey, the international consulting group, recently released a study showing that Europe would need until 2024 to go back to where it was before the pandemic.

 

And these guys are generally err on the side of optimism.

 

 

[Matzzon]

20 minutes ago, AAArdvark said:

Invest in toilet paper or bum guns.

Depends on if you are looking for a market in the west or east. If UK, US and the Nordic countries I would say, invest in paper is never wrong. For the east you would probably be a winner with bum guns. Can we please go back to something more important now?

[Matzzon]

34 minutes ago, Dazinoz said:

A meltdown.

Would you please tell me how you think that will unfold? Why in the world would that happen? The rich and powerful that controls over 95 % of all assets on earth, has been helped to minimize their losses by all the relief packages that governments all over the world has been pumping in to the economy. The only thing that will be hard is the way back for all in the working class and the poor that as a result of the virus might have lost much more than they could afford. In the big picture, that is seen as irrelevant, due to that the economical markets are held and controlled by the ones with wealth and power.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Matzzon

[Brunolem]

12 minutes ago, Dazinoz said:

I think that there are too many people wearing rose coloured glasses. Its good to be optimistic but I think we need to be realistic and prepare the best way we can. What is the best way? Who knows as there has never really been a situation like this.

People have been trained to wear rose glasses because the powers that be don't want them to see the reality...for obvious reasons...

 

One thing you might expect is to be called for sacrifices.

 

It is for a reason that many Western governments have used the words "we are at war", because war means sacrifices, not only of freedom, like now, but also financial sacrifices, that will come after the "victory".

[Matzzon]

32 minutes ago, Dazinoz said:

A meltdown.

Why not tell me your version instead of laughing at mine and avoiding answers of my 2 questions?

[sawadee1947]

I don't know the guy you are talking of. 

Your neighbour next door maybe? 

Anyway you can ask him Or any tree or dog or cat! 

I doubt even a clairvoyant can answer your questions. ????