Thailand cannot lower its guard despite declining Covid-19 trend

[Guderian]

41 minutes ago, hobz said:

I have the same experience in local markets around Chiang Mai.. most the vendors doesn't wear mask or they wear it around their neck but doesn't cover mouth / nose. Irresponsible, ignorant morons.

That and the fact that the markets are so crowded that it's impossible to stay two feet away from people, never mind 2 metres. I've given up on my local market, which I love as they have so much great food there, it's just too risky.

[stephenterry]

Until the source and accuracy of the infected cases are known, the figures quoted on here mean bu**er all. IMO, Thailand does have a seemingly advantage over most other countries, but you might as well pluck a figure from the air as to the reasons.

 

What I expect is that most people would not be able to afford the testing, and those feeling sick would make do with OTC herbal remedies and meds. Having said that, and certainly in my area, the nearby cremation temple appears quiet - no monks chanting throughout the day. Which is an indicator of death rates.

All positives, then.

Stay safe.

 

 

[Sametboy2019]

43 minutes ago, khunpa said:

In my opinion Thailands low numbers are due to:

 

• Low testing rate. 
• The weather, which seems to have some effect on the virus.

That said, I think the Thailands biggest advantage is this is their culture. Them not shaking hands and hugging friends etc. must have been and is a huge disadvantage for the virus. 

 

Closing down the bars and big gatherings was a good move. This was the main places where the virus could have spread like wildfire.

 

Overall, I think the Thais are good at keeping a distance and following the rules. Everyone I know is <deleted> scared of getting infected, which is a good thing for keeping the numbers down.

 

 

Maybe but what about the communal eating? Handling of food to each other and children.  Same with Ice in drinks.

[stephenterry]

2 minutes ago, Guderian said:

That and the fact that the markets are so crowded that it's impossible to stay two feet away from people, never mind 2 metres. I've given up on my local market, which I love as they have so much great food there, it's just too risky.

Best time is when they're opening - not so many customers about. 

[korse]

3 hours ago, Chazar said:

makes  no  sense

Males no sense to you...To me it makes a lot of sense.

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, Daveyh said:

 ignore the figures ............ just follow simple rules & self isolate. Stay safe.

 

If you ignore the figures and remain isolated deep in a cave, or in the woods, you might well be still there in 10 years!

 

You will be like these Japanese soldiers still fighting in the Philippines jungles years after the end of WWII.

 

I think that it is very important to stay updated with the numbers, which is the only way to have some idea of where we are heading (we are heading to hell for sure, but there are different circles in hell, so let's hope for the minimum of pain)

[Gilltom]

3 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

If they aren't being honest, then they are risking a major catastrophe...

The numbers seem to be declining too consistently, as if they are on a tight schedule to re-open or something !!!

How many tested  was positive.and how many negative.

[stephenterry]

12 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Maybe but what about the communal eating? Handling of food to each other and children.  Same with Ice in drinks.

It's a freaking dirty habit that I cannot stand - and especially by the elderly population who have been brought up on such behaviour - and who will never change.  Nowadays, serving spoons and ice pickers are available.  I make my own food and eat it by myself. Reduces the risk a little.

Edited April 13, 2020 by stephenterry
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[Brunolem]

39 minutes ago, BadBouy said:

 

 I think it is more likely there is not enough testing being done in LOS. I hope their numbers are correct but I would not bet on it. 

Testing does not change the number of deaths, only the number of cases.

[korse]

The social distance and closure of business must of course continue.

The numbers might be multiplied with hundreds...They are only made out of the numbers being tested.

 

So don’t stop...let’s continue for at least one more month.

[brianbbb]

1 hour ago, hobz said:

What do you base this opinion on?

if the figures right its a case over of kill

 

1 hour ago, hobz said:

What do you base this opinion on?

kill

 

1 hour ago, hobz said:

What do you base this opinion on?

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Snackbar said:

 

There is something not right about the whole situation, IMO

That sums it up.

 

The global situation, and not specifically the one of Thailand, does not make sense.

[Eloquent pilgrim]

 

The number of confirmed cases obviously has a direct relationship with the number of people being tested. I am finding it increasingly more difficult to find statistics for the number of tests being carried out in Thailand. European countries, the US and Australia have very high testing numbers and are increasing the number of tests as rapidly as they can. Bangkok Hospital in Hua Hin are charging between 6,500 and 10,000 Baht to test for Covid-19, so you can imagine the queue.

 

Low testing numbers means low numbers of confirmed cases, so I hope there is not an underlying plan by the government to keep numbers falsely low, in order to execute a short term plan of opening up to Chinese tourists again too soon. The loss of tourism from China has been a huge economic blow, but Thailand like the rest of the world really needs to recalibrate its relationship with this Pariah state when this is finally over.

 

A better long term plan for Thailand would be to become more receptive to visitors from European and other western countries. To make both short term, and long term visas much easier, and single property purchase possible, without the nightmare of land leases. However, long term planning is probably not on their agenda, which is a shame, because this beautiful country and its people could benefit greatly from some innovative government planning.

[cornishcarlos]

16 minutes ago, Gilltom said:

How many tested  was positive.and how many negative.

 

I didn't do the tests... 

[todlad]

This is a post for the intrigued and the geek, perhaps.

 

All over the world, as far as I can see, no one trusts any of the figures from any source, as far as Covid-19 is concerned. Most especially this is true because it is impossible to find everyone who died from the disease and/or who has it.

 

The purpose of this post, therefore, is to consider the quality of data that we do know about: confirmed cases and deaths that we can find on all sorts of web sites, in my case, the ECDC web site.

 

There is a mathematical law called Benford's Law that I am sure some of you have heard of the Law, I found a couple of articles on the excelmaster.co blog, including this page: https://excelmaster.co/benford-gotcha/

 

Cutting a long story short: if we take the covid-19 cases and deaths for the whole world, the first graph, Cases: Digit 1 shows the actual results in the blue columns and the expected results, according to Benford, in the orange line. This is a pretty good fit.

 

The equivalent graph for analysing the first two digits, covid_ digits 1+2, is also below and it shows that things are not so smooth. ore than that. the blue columns are removed from the orange line and that suggests dodgy data, to some extent.

 

That's the whole world up until 10th April 2020, 9,922 data points

 

As for Thailand, the equivalent two graphs are also presented below. Things look really dodgy here BUT please note, the number of data points for Thailand is very small and that has an influence on the results: 82 data points for digit one and 29 data points for digits 1+2.

 

Just for comparison, I ran the tests for the UK and I have included the graphs for that below, too: 71 data points and 40 data points for digit one and digits 1+2, respectively. Again, the small sample size hampers our analysis but we can still see that there is no significant conclusion from this analysis on a country by country basis. Yet!

 

I hope you found this post interesting and informative and if anyone else has done anything similar I would be interested to see it.

 

 

 

[Geoffggi]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Our declining number is most encouraging but we cannot let our guard down as the numbers in the rest of the world are still rising,” said Taweesin.

At least not until the Chinese are ready to come back........LOL

[Ron jeremy]

We'll see what the actual truth is, perhaps things aren't that bad after all. Who knows, only time will tell. But speaking with a friend in Vietnam, they too are getting fewer cases, apparently only had 260??????? Hopefully things are turning around.

[shackleton]

Well as long as the numbers are on the decrease must be a good sign 

Would expect some days where they might increase not by a large number

I remain with a  positive atitude will see if I am of the same opinion 

In the coming days  / weeks ect 

 

 

[Sean60]

Happy Songkran everyone.

This is great news regardless of numbers being correct or not.

We need to start planning for reopening the economy. Global recession is around the corner and you need to prepare for it. 

 

[johncat1]

On the decline ? It has only just begun in Thailand.  Today is the first day of Songkran, Governments and local towns and cities may have canceled big events. BUT T.I.T. and Thais will still celebrate Songkran with their usual noisy parties., they will get their booze from somewhere that is willing to sell it.   

[Bangkok Barry]

So many people commenting on here appear not to have caught on yet to the power of social media. If there were an enormous number of cases, far in excess of the official numbers, social media would be full of revelations of what was really happening. That hasn't happened. Maybe the numbers aren't accurate, but if they were out by any significant amount we would all know about it. These days there are no more secrets.

[Cake Monster]

1 hour ago, BadBouy said:

 

 

"He said many Asean countries have seen an increase in the number of new cases: Indonesia found 330 new cases, Philippines 233, Malaysia 184 and Singapore 191 on Saturday, he said."

 

These countries have the same weather conditions as Thailand so I think we can rule weather. I think it is more likely there is not enough testing being done in LOS. I hope their numbers are correct but I would not bet on it. 

The other Countries mentioned from SEA do have very similar weather to Thailand.

They have cases rising daily with hundreds being infected, and yet Teflon Thailand has very few cases daily.

Therefore the Weather conditions as a factor can be completely ruled out.

So that leaves testing, which may, or may not be taking place around the Country. If it is not, then Thailand is playing a very dangerous game with this Virus.

A game that they will loose it spectacular fashion at some point, just to gain Tourists back from China ( Wuhan being the main port of departure, in the past).

Wuhan is opening up again now, and the Virus is said by Chinese Officials to be under control, but I am a tad reluctant to treated like a Mushroom.

 

[shan777]

1 hour ago, kwonitoy said:

So if you go to this website it says Phuket has 34 confirmed cases

https://covidtracker.5lab.co/

 

But if you go to CNN there's an article about Phuket being a virus hotspot with over 170 confirmed cases

https://edition.cnn.com/

 

I believe neither number to be honest

locally in Phuket there  reporting over 200 infected doing daily up dates and what are even where as what streets businesses ,this is all in Thai , I talk to my mate and his wife and  there telling me , on the last day there were  22 new infection. this was a couple days  ago . the same in Sis ak at  few days ago 8 infected with one close to us we know details ,as there saying girl came back from Pattaya , to Kun Han, where she lives and  three days later tested positive to the virus.  and is in Kun Han hospital, so local reporting is good. every one isolating , here nobody taking chances at all ,and every one  warring a masks and yes Thais would I understand get angry if   you don't ware a mask when the laws  say you have  to ,and the biggest spreaders have been from foreigners, bringing in the virus.  

Edited April 13, 2020 by shan777
typo

[khunpa]

46 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Maybe but what about the communal eating? Handling of food to each other and children.  Same with Ice in drinks.

My wife owns and runs a restaurant now doing take away. Next to her are other small restaurants. Overall, I think they all handle the situation with good care. Ensuring things sold are disinfected. Going to a supermarket is also a risk.

 

But since this is a pandemic, it will be impossible to stop completely. But overall, I think the Thais are doing a good job. 

[Pravda]

3 hours ago, bkk_mike said:

The virus probably doesn't cope well outside in Thailand

 

Indeed a great analysis 

[NoshowJones]

4 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

If they aren't being honest, then they are risking a major catastrophe...

The numbers seem to be declining too consistently, as if they are on a tight schedule to re-open or something !!!

Maybe it's affecting the Bigwigs income stream.

[Robert Tyrrell]

I have a question Thailand Government ?

 

what are your numbers for testing ? Because if there low and or everyone has not been tested then these downward trends of reported cases is false !!

 

Secondly, There is NO !! Mention of Asymptomatic people.

These are people showing no signs of infection visibly Fever , Cough etc... that can still be infected and spreading the virus , I’m greatly concerned with lack of both questions I’ve asked !!
Thirdly , Today is the beginning  of Songkran, How many will violate the lockdown and continue to spread the virus ??

Based on my own personal experience in my limited travels outside my home in Thailand for Food , Water , Pharmacy etc.. I see MANY !! Thai’s NOT !! Social Distancing , NOT !! Protecting themselves mask etc... Even within my Family Myself and my Wife ritually following Social Distancing and protecting with mask , Soap and Water and hand sanitizing my wife has mentioned today in her village there going to a local place for free rice , CRAZY !! Bringing more people together.

needless to say myself and my wife WILL NOT !! Attend that !!

In closing I wish everyone Safe and Healthy Thoughts , May Buddha and God Bless you !!    

[joebrown]

53 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Testing does not change the number of deaths, only the number of cases.

Makes me wonder whether all Covid19 deaths are being recorded as such!

[shan777]

46 minutes ago, johncat1 said:

On the decline ? It has only just begun in Thailand.  Today is the first day of Songkran, Governments and local towns and cities may have canceled big events. BUT T.I.T. and Thais will still celebrate Songkran with their usual noisy parties., they will get their booze from somewhere that is willing to sell it.   

disagree with your comment ,all people where I am ,are following the ban , I have not seen one  party here ,no one throwing water at all, people are not even going to temples  , and no parties , here at all and they love a party here. well since writing the above a few minutes ago had the above shot to death 8 young children just came to bless me  happy Songkran  scented water in my hands and me pouring a small amount over there heads, while wishing them good fortune in life . .these are  all relatives of my lady and call me Popa  , there were lead by my 5 year old niece.

Edited April 13, 2020 by shan777
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[Urawatakoyaki]

4 hours ago, Chazar said:

makes  no  sense

In what way?