Mass-testing not that effective in battle against contagion

[mindfulness]

Ya don’t have to be a rocket scientist to work this out. It would needn’t the same test to Ben done every 3 to four days on the same individual. 

[DavisH]

1 hour ago, Aland said:

https://youtu.be/Gdd7dtDaYmM

 

It's easy to find a video with a so-called 'expert' that fits ones narrative. 

Search on Judy Mitkovits. She's a real piece of work. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judy_Mikovits

 

[DavisH]

5 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

You mean MoPH? Their leader is Anutin, who's Prayuth's best buddy. All to do with the junta.

So you doubt the published data then? I really hope you lose sleep over this. If not, you must be a troll. 

[Mung]

Quote

However, due to Thailand’s limited resources, it cannot afford mass screening to uncover new infections, Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), said on Monday

There it is, ding ding ding ding 

[DavisH]

1 hour ago, Matzzon said:

Sure, you might be right. If I am wrong, I am pretty sure that this whole community on TVF is going to make me eat my words, TWICE! ????

It´s like I said n another post today in this thread. Sometimes you just have to gamble. According to me the odds are on the number they have presented. There are too many factors that are making it very hard to hide the reality in this case. So, it´s unusual times this time which makes my money to be on Thailand.

You can tell the bars are all shut. The moaners are all here on TV with nothing better to do. Got to wonder why most of them live in LoS, if their home country is so great. 

[SkyFax]

13 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

They have a very obvious bias, but they also have one thing not many others don't have:

Quote

For its articles, the publication draws from a network within China, as well as staff living in the West

 

They got Chinese in China being able to access Chinese document and translate them to English. That's why I read what they got to say. Seems fairly unique. 

I won't say I know about them, but they may selectively draw on their in-China sources and translate such documents that support their 'obvious bias'.

[dcgm]

Very misleading title to this article. Something being not cost effective is vastly different to something being ineffective.

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

I won't say I know about them, but they may selectively draw on their in-China sources and translate such documents that support their 'obvious bias'.

Correct. One has to have critical thinking capabilites and media savvy to weed out any unique information and then verify it as much as possible. Even then, it's often a gut feeling and finding a piece that fits the puzzle. I welcome any data.

[FarFlungFalang]

4 minutes ago, DavisH said:

So you doubt the published data then? I really hope you lose sleep over this. If not, you must be a troll. 

If that's the criteria for a troll then TV must stand for Trolls Ville as the majority here seem to have at least some doubts about the published figures coming from this twisted excuse of an illegal administration who usurped power by use of force shredding any claim to legitimacy or anything else resembling the will of the people. 

[DrTuner]

10 minutes ago, DavisH said:

So you doubt the published data then? I really hope you lose sleep over this. If not, you must be a troll. 

I take it you haven't read my posts from the last couple of months. I've been very vocal about the MoPH methods of throttling the test results. I sleep fine, though.

[FarFlungFalang]

6 minutes ago, DavisH said:

You can tell the bars are all shut. The moaners are all here on TV with nothing better to do. Got to wonder why most of them live in LoS, if their home country is so great. 

You seem to moan so much you could make a hormone! 

[wensiensheng]

4 hours ago, Griffo63 said:

I'm no expert but I don't see any evidence of ambulances queuing at hospitals with urgent admissions, patients lying on gurneys waiting to die, or on ventilators in packed out hospital wards, exhausted nurses and doctors pleading for more PPE, mass cremations or makeshift graves. I don't even see pictures of ordinary folk applauding on Thursday evenings in support of key workers. So show me the evidence you naysayers  

So why is the country in such a strict lock down if everything is so hunky dory? Not saying things ARENT fine, but if they are, why all the restrictions? Countries with more cases are easing restrictions and Thailand is ramping its up!

[SkyFax]

6 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I take it you haven't read my posts from the last couple of months

I have particularly your "we'll see" prediction from 14FEB2020

[SmartyMarty]

<deleted> we know from other countries that mass testing does work. These muppets have no idea. Complete imbeciles.

[DrTuner]

4 hours ago, Griffo63 said:

I'm no expert but I don't see any evidence of ambulances queuing at hospitals with urgent admissions, patients lying on gurneys waiting to die, or on ventilators in packed out hospital wards, exhausted nurses and doctors pleading for more PPE, mass cremations or makeshift graves. I don't even see pictures of ordinary folk applauding on Thursday evenings in support of key workers. So show me the evidence you naysayers  

Luckily not in that situation - yet. First signs are coming out, BKK post had the dead taxi driver story today, there's a facebook post from a victim that described the treatment and mentioned a new ward had been opened, etc. It's brewing. Remains to be seen how effective the lockdowns are, it took about 2 weeks for <deleted> to hit the fan in Hubei (might look more familiar if you replace 'Lunar New Year' with 'Songkran'):

 

I do think the weather does bring R0 down a bit, so Thailand might fare a bit better. Remains to be seen.

Edited April 14, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

10 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

So why is the country in such a strict lock down if everything is so hunky dory? Not saying things ARENT fine, but if they are, why all the restrictions? Countries with more cases are easing restrictions and Thailand is ramping its up!

MoPH has access to the number of "Probable" and "Asymptomatic" cases, in addition the the "Confirmed" they are feeding us:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

Quote

2. Probable case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by PCR from one (1) reference laboratory, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture.

3. Confirmed case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture.

4. Asymptomatic case is defined as a person who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV2 by PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture, but has shown no signs and symptoms.

 

One could draw the conclusion the probable and asymptomatic cases are ballooning, causing MoPH to take action. We the hoi polloi have no access to those numbers, or even the number of tests done per day.

 

Here's another indication all is not well: MoPH released a separate guideline for medical personnel on 8th of April and there was a report of 80 medics already being infected. It's an indication SARS-CoV-2 has a presence in the hospitals.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/g_CPG.pdf

[DrTuner]

35 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

I have particularly your "we'll see" prediction from 14FEB2020

Yeah, now we're seeing widespread lockdowns, booze bans, etc. Lots to see in the future, too.

[geisha]

There is the answer, testing is expensive, so there are no true figures of contamination. 

[SkyFax]

5 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

41 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

I have particularly your "we'll see" prediction from 14FEB2020

Yeah, now we're seeing widespread lockdowns, booze bans, etc. Lots to see in the future, too

Wow -- more predictions. That's OK. I just cue the JAWS shark theme whenever I read your stuff.

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, SkyFax said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times

 

 

The Epoch Times.........better and better........????????

[transam]

1 hour ago, DavisH said:

You can tell the bars are all shut. The moaners are all here on TV with nothing better to do. Got to wonder why most of them live in LoS, if their home country is so great. 

At last, Mazz has a mate............................

[SantiSuk]

So mass screening is not cost effective? Not according to the UK's Chief Scientific Adviser

 

Extract from yesterday's edition of Politico Pro London Playbook

 

 

"MEA CULPA AT LAST: Big scoop last night for ITV News, which finally secured an admission from a senior government figure that the U.K. got it wrong on coronavirus testing at the critical moment. Speaking on ITV’s weekly “Coronavirus Q&A” show, Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance suggested his colleagues at Public Health England had failed to increase testing as quickly as was needed to control the spread of the virus. Previously PHE officials downplayed the importance of mass testing, while ministers would only say they are now “ramping up” the program as quickly as possible. But Vallance admitted rollout had been too slow, and — crucially — said it needs to be done at sufficient scale not just to test NHS workers but “to look at outbreaks and isolate” — as has happened so effectively in Germany and South Korea."

 

The schools in Germany are still open and South Korea is not in lockdown. Both are widely predicted to be able to bounce back economy-wise than other countries.

 

 

 

 

POLITICO, a global nonpartisan politics and policy news organization, launched in Europe in April 2015. POLITICO Europe is a joint-venture between POLITICO LLC, based in the USA and Axel Springer, the leading publisher in Europe.

With operations based in Brussels and additional offices in London, Berlin, Paris, Rome, and Warsaw, POLITICO connects the dots between global power centers. Its journalism lives online at politico.eu; in POLITICO Pro, the real-time subscription-based policy news service for professionals; in daily morning newsletters, such as Brussels Playbook and London Playbook; in print via a weekly newspaper; and through live events.

 

 

[ParkerN]

There are those who would argue that if the testing of the population is not reliable or complete, then all of the pandemic stats are likely to be suspect.

Testing is the sine-qua-non of managing a viral infection pandemic, you can't get much more basic than that and if Thais can't get that right, then they should call in expertise from outside Thailand without further delay.

If Thailand has been relying upon inaccurate or incomplete stats to inform their population and other countries, then I very much fear that after the rest of the world has recovered, Thailand will be awaiting a second phase, and that would be absolutely devastating personally for Thais and economically.

 

Politically, that would be the end of per unit, and arguably the end of coup governments in general in Thailand. They will have lost the faith of the population, and are likely never to recover from the damage that will do to them and to their sponsors.

 

 

 

[SuperTed]

12 hours ago, webfact said:

The CCSA has highlighted four key lessons learned from the Covid-19 battle: 

 

1. Those in high-risk contact groups have to be identified, and to ensure this measure is effective, the authorities need to enforce strict screening measures and the police have to step in and identify those evading the process; 

 

2. Those in high-risk contact groups have to be completely isolated; 

 

3. Active hunting for cases has to be applied to communities that have a high rate of infections or when contact tracing cannot be applied to all high-risk people; 

 

4. Mass screening is not cost effective as the rate of infection is not high enough. 

1 and 2 are correct.

 

3 is half correct - active hunting for infections needs to be undertaken in ALL communities with infections.

 

4. Is absolutely wrong. Ability to test for covid will be just as critical to TH economic survival as ability to test for HIV. Bite the bullet and ramp up testing now. High rate of testing is the clear reason DE has kept fatalities so low.

 

Failure to roll out testing nationwide will eventually cause significant harm to TH. For the next five years, there will be no tourists arriving at destinations which cannot confirm, and have Western medical professionals agree with, their level of testing, infection, antibodies and immunization.

 

Hopefully younger Thais will get this point and let the government know their thought online. Minister Anutin may want to skip checking FB tonight.

 

[Letseng]

9 hours ago, Toany said:

Well at least we now have some idea of the number of tests carried out at some hospitals.  Much  better than keeping everything a secret

Odd that, why does widespread screening work in other countries?

[diks]

23 minutes ago, SantiSuk said:

The schools in Germany are still open and South Korea is not in lockdown. Both are widely predicted to be able to bounce back economy-wise than other countries.

The schools in Germany have been closed for weeks, however they are supposed to open after the easter holidays. There has yet to be an official word that it will happen.

[Traubert]

24 minutes ago, Letseng said:

Odd that, why does widespread screening work in other countries?

Why are the fatalities greater in other countries?

[Incobart]

28 minutes ago, Letseng said:

Odd that, why does widespread screening work in other countries?

it is only effective if you are in the very beginning of an epidemic

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Why are the fatalities greater in other countries?

To be counted as COVID fatalitity in Thailand one first needs to pass the restrictive PUI criteria, then actually get tested and confirmed by two reference laboratories. So it's a subset of the "Confirmed". 

 

It's a funnel designed to keep the numbers low.

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

Why are the fatalities greater in other countries?

 

They may not be, assuming the mitigation measures are similar (yes, I know Thailand's are not likely to be).

 

Two sides of the same competence coin/equation.

Edited April 14, 2020 by ParkerN