Thai economy suffering worst damage since 1950s, experts say

[webfact]

Thai economy suffering worst damage since 1950s, experts say

By The Nation

 

Thanawat Phonwichai,

 

Covid-19 has hit Thailand’s economy harder than any event in the last six decades, with a projected GDP of minus-4 percent and 10 million jobs lost, said the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

 

Thanawat Phonwichai, director of the UTCC's Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting, said that the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) confidence index in March fell to 37.5, the lowest point since January 2018, as a result of the pandemic crisis.

 

TCC members believe that the economic situation is the worst since 1957, since all sectors have been affected by Covid-19, putting 10 million people out of work.

 

“Our members have never experienced a situation like this. Economies around the world are facing the same damage as our own,” Thanawat said. “However, Thailand still can recover in the fourth quarter if the situation stabilises.”

 

The centre predicts the Thai economy in 2020 will shrink by about minus-4 percent (or a range of minus-3.4-4.9 percent) given the government’s Bt1.9-trillion stimulus measures. Without that help, the number would by minus-8.8 per cent, it said.

 

Meanwhile the directive to hold GDP at 4-5 percent would depend on the effectiveness of stimulus measures. For example, people could choose to either spend or save their Bt5,000 monthly aid payments while businesses may or may not get help, especially SMEs who are not targeted clients of a bank.

 

However, each Bt10 billion injection from the government will raise GDP by 0.7 percent, said the centre. If the Bt1-trillion loan request from the Finance Ministry is completely injected into the system, GDP will increase by 7 per cent but Bt30 billion-Bt40 billion would be circulating in the economy.

 

TCC suggested that the government should make moves to secure the jobs of contributors to the social security fund with compensation at an hourly rate.

 

And it should fix the minimum daily wage at Bt325 and the hourly wage at Bt40-Bt41 while stipulating that companies must hire employees for at least four hours per day and no more than eight hours.

 

Companies that need to lay off employees could instead pay 75 per cent of their salaries – with 50 per cent subsidised by social security and 25 per cent paid by the company.

 

Clients of the national credit bureau should be able to postpone loans payments, while the ban on receiving loans should be cut from three years to one year for debtors with excellent credit histories.

 

The centre also proposed that the government lower the interest rate, postpone debt and tax payments and reduce electricity and water charges, while compensating employees who are outside the social security system.

 

Source: http://www.nationthailand.com/news/30386149

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-17

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[ChipButty]

Put the Baht back to 65 to the £ and we will all be over the moon

[AlexRich]

Put the baht back to 65 to the £ ... and get rid of fat munter bar girls ... and we’ll be back with a bang ... quite literally!

[Puchaiyank]

This is going to be a rough ride downhill for the baht...be interesting to see if the hard-asses free up the visa requirements for tourist and retirees...

 

Maybe those "dirty-farang's" money is not so bad after all...

[AussieBob18]

Anyone doubting how bad the Thai economy alrerady is and has been for several years, only needs to read this for the article:

 

The centre predicts the Thai economy in 2020 will shrink by about minus-4 percent (or a range of minus-3.4-4.9 percent) given the government’s Bt1.9-trillion stimulus measures. Without that help, the number would by minus-8.8 per cent, it said.

 

Thailand is following the China model to artificially inflate GDP/Economy figures through Govt spending on large infrastructure projects.  But the real economy is the one without the Govt spending, which creates very little economic benefits to the majority of the people and businesses - only to a select few.

[AussieBob18]

2 minutes ago, Puchaiyank said:

This is going to be a rough ride downhill for the baht...be interesting to see if the hard-asses free up the visa requirements for tourist and retirees...

 

Maybe those "dirty-farang's" money is not so bad after all...

Two countries in the world have by far the largest number of people with communicable diseases - not just in volume but also in percentages - China and India.  Not just corona/fly viral diseases - TB as well.  And who has Thailand encouraged to come and 'spread' - the exact wrong ones - who dont spend money anything like the westerners - no matter what TAT says. Paying money to Chinese and/or Thai-Chinese companies, is not spending money that the vast majority of Thai people get.  You are right - they are missing out big time by pushing the 'farangs' away - both the tourists and the long-stays - but will they realise it and then admit that? Of course not - not this mob is control.

[realfunster]

7 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Put the Baht back to 65 to the £ and we will all be over the moon

 

I’m guessing you are retired ? As a working man I don’t mind the strong baht, it has allowed me to repatriate some savings at a beneficial exchange rate. 

I agree a little bit of weakening would probably be better for the overall economy.

 

Out of interest, I checked the charts, last time we were at 65 was August 2008, from there, a straight dive to 50. Some occasional flirting with 55 since then but generally speaking been below 50 ever since.

 

As for the OP, we had -4% GDP contraction in 2008 (GFC) and 2011 (Floods), and a -12% year in 1997 (Tom Yam Kung), so I don’t understand their reference to 1957. How many TCC members were alive and working in business in 1957 and did Thailand even have any reliable economic data back then ? If things are biblically bad, how come the TCC member confidence index is only as low as January 2018 and not off the scale low? Or are they just trying to apply pressure for further government support for business ????

 

 

 

[cyril sneer]

1 hour ago, ChipButty said:

Put the Baht back to 65 to the £ and we will all be over the moon

a better exchange rate doesn't count for much when all the Thai businesses start doubling/tripling the prices to make up for the loss

[miamiman123]

This guy is blowing smoke up your <deleted>. His minus 5% is b4 you take into account all those condos houses unsold w the lights on at night.

then look at the impact on industries like education for English program schools...that Can’t even get teachers to teach. Then manufacturing and retail is done....many will never return.

yeah let’s get more 7/11’s and give them a 40 baht increase....that will get it all going again. 

Yes let’s now turn back to those dirty farangs from India UK and Amerika to help us out.

thailand will be a long long time coming back but it will never be the way it was!

except for those bars in Pattaya!

the Vietnam war did this to Thailand and they let it happen.

you need more like him at the TCC.

Edited April 17, 2020 by miamiman123
Spell

[Chassa]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thai economy suffering worst damage since 1950s, experts say

Only Thailand!

[Khun Rob]

The rest of the world comparing it to the 1920's. Maybe hes mixing calendars.

[fdbob]

1 hour ago, cyril sneer said:

a better exchange rate doesn't count for much when all the Thai businesses start doubling/tripling the prices to make up for the loss

We can definitely expect inflated prices

[Snackbar]

2 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Thailand is following the China model

How scary is that

[soalbundy]

2 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

This is going to be a rough ride downhill for the baht...be interesting to see if the hard-asses free up the visa requirements for tourist and retirees...

 

Maybe those "dirty-farang's" money is not so bad after all...

I doubt that the Baht will be going downhill as all other economies are just as badly off, the status quo will remain as it is.

[Georgie65]

All farang beware!!! Try to limit going outside after dark... Desperate times, make people do desperate things! Stay safe boy's.... Who wants to buy a beer bar??? <deleted>!!!!!

Edited April 17, 2020 by metisdead
Profane acronym removed.

[Brickbat]

2 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Two countries in the world have by far the largest number of people with communicable diseases - not just in volume but also in percentages - China and India.  Not just corona/fly viral diseases - TB as well.  And who has Thailand encouraged to come and 'spread' - the exact wrong ones - who dont spend money anything like the westerners - no matter what TAT says. Paying money to Chinese and/or Thai-Chinese companies, is not spending money that the vast majority of Thai people get.  You are right - they are missing out big time by pushing the 'farangs' away - both the tourists and the long-stays - but will they realise it and then admit that? Of course not - not this mob is control.

You have got it all wrong . The rich here are doubling their wealth every few years ( the Billionaires in 2 years) . They know exactly what they are doing. Sure, it’s to the detriment of the vast majority of locals. But.... Cheap Charlie farangs are of absolutely no concern to the Ruling Class. And btw, if you ever go to 4-5 star hotels, the majority are Asian customers. Farangs are in guest houses.

its Time for us to wake up to the hard n fast truth. 

[Isaan sailor]

Don’t look now, but the mighty Baht has just trounced western currencies.  Up nearly 2% in 10 days.  Economy in ruins—and the Baht rises.  Risk on—right, currency traders?  Buy “emerging markets”?  Complete BS.

[lks7689]

2 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Two countries in the world have by far the largest number of people with communicable diseases - not just in volume but also in percentages - China and India.  Not just corona/fly viral diseases - TB as well.  And who has Thailand encouraged to come and 'spread' - the exact wrong ones - who dont spend money anything like the westerners - no matter what TAT says. Paying money to Chinese and/or Thai-Chinese companies, is not spending money that the vast majority of Thai people get.  You are right - they are missing out big time by pushing the 'farangs' away - both the tourists and the long-stays - but will they realise it and then admit that? Of course not - not this mob is control.

The last time I replied to a post was years ago. Since I'm bored from the lockdown in my own country, let me say some <deleted> to go along with the daily doses going around here. So what have farangs, who have "invested" or wasted their time and money in Thailand prior gotta do with how Thailand dictate policies? Times has change and certainly I'm sure the countries these farangs came from has seen better days. If not, they would have zip up, admit they made the wrong judgement call and went back where they came from, why "suffer" in Thailand? For years I have invested in Thailand, then found the culture unsuitable and moved on. I could whine like many losers here do on a daily basis but I figured, what's the chances of me changing a Thai mindset so deeply rooted in greed and superficiality? People in thaivisa has been whining for decades, what has changed? You farangs know the deal in Thailand yet still you stay there, taking pot shots at Thai incompetence that you know very well will continue past the day you die. By staying you are admitting there's a part of Thailand that you still crave and can't let go. Isn't that hypocritical? 

[GalaxyMan]

16 minutes ago, Georgie65 said:

All farang beware!!! Try to limit going outside after dark... Desperate times, make people do desperate things! Stay safe boy's.... Who wants to buy a beer bar??? <deleted>!!!!!

Actually, even though you're trying to be funny, you're actually correct. My wife (Thai) suggested that perhaps we should not wear our gold necklaces anymore because of just this (we don't). Very sad. ????

[metisdead]

A post containing content that was copy and pasted from some site has been removed.  Please provide a valid link to the source of information when posting. 

[ronaldo0]

How does that song go again ? You ain’t seen nothin yet , b-b-b-baby , you just ain’t seen n-n-nothin yet ! ????

[sahibji]

this is not typical to thailand. that is about what is happening world wide. tough times and all have to belt up.

[sahibji]

18 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Don’t look now, but the mighty Baht has just trounced western currencies.  Up nearly 2% in 10 days.  Economy in ruins—and the Baht rises.  Risk on—right, currency traders?  Buy “emerging markets”?  Complete BS.

is the baht being supported by some forces?

[sahibji]

1 minute ago, ronaldo0 said:

How does that song go again ? You ain’t seen nothin yet , b-b-b-baby , you just ain’t seen n-n-nothin yet ! ????

looks going that way but all we cando is to hope that it does not.

[sahibji]

3 hours ago, ChipButty said:

Put the Baht back to 65 to the £ and we will all be over the moon

is there any manipulation on the currency. maybe worth while to investigate.

[kevin612]

Thailand does not have a financial crisis since 1997. It’s been too long. I would like to see baht drops to 60too.

[Pravda]

28 minutes ago, lks7689 said:

The last time I replied to a post was years ago. Since I'm bored from the lockdown in my own country, let me say some <deleted> to go along with the daily doses going around here. So what have farangs, who have "invested" or wasted their time and money in Thailand prior gotta do with how Thailand dictate policies? Times has change and certainly I'm sure the countries these farangs came from has seen better days. If not, they would have zip up, admit they made the wrong judgement call and went back where they came from, why "suffer" in Thailand? For years I have invested in Thailand, then found the culture unsuitable and moved on. I could whine like many losers here do on a daily basis but I figured, what's the chances of me changing a Thai mindset so deeply rooted in greed and superficiality? People in thaivisa has been whining for decades, what has changed? You farangs know the deal in Thailand yet still you stay there, taking pot shots at Thai incompetence that you know very well will continue past the day you die. By staying you are admitting there's a part of Thailand that you still crave and can't let go. Isn't that hypocritical? 

 

The truth hurts.

 

Smart people cut their losses and move on.

 

God, I have read about so many millionaires here yet they keep moaning about Thailand non stop. I doubt Warren Buffett and Bill spent their life on online forums whinging.

[Nordude]

The 5000 Baht cash handout will definitely have an immediate impact on the exchange rate. They will have to print more money, and bringing more money into circulation makes the currency worth less. If you're not seeing any changes, it must be because your home currency is taking a hit as well.

[Khun Paul]

Any country that BUYS stuff they do not really want has a problem, here it is Submarines and Tanks, the BILLIONS being spent is outrageous, take the Money from the Military to assist the Poor, unemployed and the sick. But NO spend spend spend and NOW ...OMG we have a problem...……..anyone surprised 

[Bob12345]

3 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Thailand is following the China model to artificially inflate GDP/Economy figures through Govt spending on large infrastructure projects.  But the real economy is the one without the Govt spending, which creates very little economic benefits to the majority of the people and businesses - only to a select few.

And China is following the example of the USA: you are probably too young to remember but it was not a coincidence that the Hoover dam was build during the Great Depression. Its a Keynesian approach (named after John Maynard Keynes, a British economist) to economics where the government increases spending (and lowers taxes) to pull the economy out of a recession. Almost all countries have done it, and the biggest risk is they build useless things just to spend money (like a high-speed freight train network). 

 

The biggest difference between China and Thailand is that China makes their banks spend the money for a large part. As all banks there are in the hands of the government they have to follow the orders and dole out the money to businesses to invest. Once the businesses don't do so well and cannot be declared bankrupt (loss of face, necessary products, etc) the bank is stuck with "toxic" loans on its balance sheet that will never be repayed. Marking the loans to value (mark-to-market) will make the banks insolvent. In Thailand its the government doing the spending, and banks can still try to keep the financial market and their balance sheets healthy. The government can't really go bankrupt, as they can borrow more in the market and cover expenses by raising taxes; downside being that they had to lower taxes to stimulate the economy so a new recession might pop up. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Bob12345