Thai economy suffering worst damage since 1950s, experts say

[overherebc]

Just been watching on UK TV an interview with various people on 'travel post Covid19'.

General opinion is that it be the 2nd quarter of next year before a lot of people from USA and EU start to think about travel and holidays especially by air. Many who have been out of work for a while will be more interested in clearing debts etc. 

International travel can't just start up overnight, it will start with domestic, work up to short haul and when long haul gets going it will very likely have fewer airlines working.

Countries will need to co-ordinate on quarantine requirements for international flights ( no one will want days in quarantine pre and post holiday ) Fewer flights, bigger fares etc.

Lots of big changes on the cards and no-one as yet knows what half of them will be.

Edited April 17, 2020 by overherebc

[Thingamabob]

6 hours ago, soalbundy said:

I doubt that the Baht will be going downhill as all other economies are just as badly off, the status quo will remain as it is.

Agreed. The baht won't be declining much, if at all. Thailand is in much better shape than it was in earlier crises. It doesn't have large loans in foreign currencies, and it's reserves, also in baht, are substantial.

[Tchooptip]

OK that explains why the Thai Baht is still so ridiculously so strong????

[marko kok prong]

5 hours ago, lks7689 said:

The last time I replied to a post was years ago. Since I'm bored from the lockdown in my own country, let me say some <deleted> to go along with the daily doses going around here. So what have farangs, who have "invested" or wasted their time and money in Thailand prior gotta do with how Thailand dictate policies? Times has change and certainly I'm sure the countries these farangs came from has seen better days. If not, they would have zip up, admit they made the wrong judgement call and went back where they came from, why "suffer" in Thailand? For years I have invested in Thailand, then found the culture unsuitable and moved on. I could whine like many losers here do on a daily basis but I figured, what's the chances of me changing a Thai mindset so deeply rooted in greed and superficiality? People in thaivisa has been whining for decades, what has changed? You farangs know the deal in Thailand yet still you stay there, taking pot shots at Thai incompetence that you know very well will continue past the day you die. By staying you are admitting there's a part of Thailand that you still crave and can't let go. Isn't that hypocritical? 

Well some of us bloody well like whining!

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies about Thai/English grammar usage have been removed. 

[marko kok prong]

5 hours ago, sahibji said:

is the baht being supported by some forces?

The Jedi.

[Neeranam]

5 hours ago, lks7689 said:

The last time I replied to a post was years ago. Since I'm bored from the lockdown in my own country, let me say some <deleted> to go along with the daily doses going around here. So what have farangs, who have "invested" or wasted their time and money in Thailand prior gotta do with how Thailand dictate policies? Times has change and certainly I'm sure the countries these farangs came from has seen better days. If not, they would have zip up, admit they made the wrong judgement call and went back where they came from, why "suffer" in Thailand? For years I have invested in Thailand, then found the culture unsuitable and moved on. I could whine like many losers here do on a daily basis but I figured, what's the chances of me changing a Thai mindset so deeply rooted in greed and superficiality? People in thaivisa has been whining for decades, what has changed? You farangs know the deal in Thailand yet still you stay there, taking pot shots at Thai incompetence that you know very well will continue past the day you die. By staying you are admitting there's a part of Thailand that you still crave and can't let go. Isn't that hypocritical? 

Please post more, wise post.

[TommyBlue]

1 hour ago, Jack P said:

“each Bt10 billion injection from the government will raise GDP by 0.7 percent, said the centre”

People really believe this kind of economic absurdity. The Venezuelan state has gambled everything on print and borrow money to shower on their citizens. Venezuela ought to be the most productive society in the world by now, were the economic fantasy true.

IMO Thailand is going that way but wont go all that way down I hope. Authoritative Government out of touch with people, lots of excuses and blames for bad things and problems but no solutions, spending money on Govt projects (money to allies, friends, family) Govt using loans - at minute Thailand still has reserves but it is dropping quickly as trade exports and tourists have slowed money spent for years. But when money gone they will borrow from China? and keep spending - interest rates will drop - economy will slow - projects stop - economy crashes and with it the currency.  Plenty of cheap bargains in Venzuela. I have family of in=law relative living in country near to them - most stories not in western media - but they have been in Sth America - what I say to them about Thailand reminds them of Venezuela.

[Percy P]

9 hours ago, ChipButty said:

Put the Baht back to 65 to the £ and we will all be over the moon

Over the moon at 65/£ . I've had as much as 90/£ so where would you be then.

[TommyBlue]

1 hour ago, Neeranam said:

OK, thanks. White tourists are made get Health insurance and do a TM30(whatever that is).

I didn't know that, not being a tourist.

Most non-citizens are tourists - might be allowed stay for 12 months - but must report and renew - not resident not citizen that is a visitor (tourist). You not in Thailand and never lived here? No insurance No reporting?

[rumak]

5 minutes ago, Tchooptip said:

OK that explains why the Thai Baht is still so ridiculously so strong????

hmmmmmm     Well, you seem like you are an expert.   Please tell me why the US dollar,

which is manufactured out of thin air as zeros are added on to the ........err, BALANCE SHEET...

added on faster than one can count  .    try counting to a trillion   5555

 How come the dollar does not have the same fate as Zimbabwe paper ?

Note:  No problem for me.  They send me a small amount every month  ????

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, TommyBlue said:

But when money gone they will borrow from China?

 

what I say to them about Thailand reminds them of Venezuela.

Why would Thailand need to borrow from China?

 

Its finances are in much better shape than those of China, which is crumbling under mountains of debt.

 

You probably don't say the right things to your friends, because Thailand has nothing in common with Venezuela.

 

Venezuela is a socialist petro state, with no economy to speak of, and under American sanctions to make things worse.

 

Thailand has a diversified economy and is certainly not socialist.

 

Its income and currency don't depend on the price of ONE commodity (oil).

 

Thailand has probably made the mistake to devote a large share of its economy to foreign tourism, and worse, to rely on a limited number of countries (Russia, then China, then India) to fill up its too numerous hotels and condos.

 

Let's hope that this lesson will be learned.

[marko kok prong]

2 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Christ, get over it. This was one man only that said this, and to be fair to him, did he actually say "dirty"? 

Actually, yesterday my mother said she was surprised that Thailand wasn't more infected due to the lack of hygiene here! I think many of us, due to the environment we were brought up in, have preconceived ideas about foreigners. 

 

 

 

 

Totally agree the amount of paranoia on this thread is staggering,one idiot posted something on face book and got some likes,immigration are not out to get you,they are just stultified by lack of leadership and slavish compliance of the rules,in 8 years i never feel i have been racially insulted,sure if you live in Patts or Phuket,it may be different,i live up country i never remember a time were i have been,ignored,spoken rudely too,or anything.We have a large expat population here for a small town,and if anything i think the local Thai people here value our spending,and support of many Thai families.

[Brunolem]

10 minutes ago, rumak said:

 

 How come the dollar does not have the same fate as Zimbabwe paper ?

 

It is not for a lack of trying.

 

There is nothing more difficult to destroy than faith...and faith in the dollar remains strong, despite all the evidence showing that it is not worth the paper it is printed on.

 

Plus there is also the fact that people hate change.

 

They have got used to deal with dollars, worldwide, and they will probably do it until they are forced to use something else.

[thaiboss]

how can you comments to this bla bla bla ..... we are 2020 and just two month ago thailand was head of the world economy  .....thery said so .....

[transam]

51 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Agreed. The baht won't be declining much, if at all. Thailand is in much better shape than it was in earlier crises. It doesn't have large loans in foreign currencies, and it's reserves, also in baht, are substantial.

Which leads us to the no social security for the poor......

[Swedenlars]

8 hours ago, cyril sneer said:

a better exchange rate doesn't count for much when all the Thai businesses start doubling/tripling the prices to make up for the loss

Very true. I experienced the same thing in Turkey. The Lira down the beer prices up.

[Mikeasq60]

Im curious will Thailand allow Chinese tourism to return in the foreseable future? Or is this a sore spot in Thailand at the moment, nobody wants to say it but after whats happened I get the feeling its going to be a long road for China to return!

[SupermarineS6B]

10 hours ago, AlexRich said:

Put the baht back to 65 to the £ ... and get rid of fat munter bar girls ... and we’ll be back with a bang ... quite literally!

Last time i was in Cowboy i thought i'd staggered into Crufts !...........  RAF   Rough As <deleted>....

[transam]

5 minutes ago, Mikeasq60 said:

Im curious will Thailand allow Chinese tourism to return in the foreseable future? Or is this a sore spot in Thailand at the moment, nobody wants to say it but after whats happened I get the feeling its going to be a long road for China to return!

Think cash rules here, wherever it comes from...

[The Theory]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

“However, Thailand still can recover in the fourth quarter if the situation stabilises.”

Wonderful, and what year !!!!

Edited April 17, 2020 by The Theory

[SupermarineS6B]

Strange historical fact. The result of backing the Japanese during WW2 caused Thailand a lot of grief well into the fifties and strangely enough backing the Chinese recently really hasn't done them any favours....... Better stick with them Farangs boys....... Steady money.......  

[Brunolem]

31 minutes ago, Mikeasq60 said:

Im curious will Thailand allow Chinese tourism to return in the foreseable future? Or is this a sore spot in Thailand at the moment, nobody wants to say it but after whats happened I get the feeling its going to be a long road for China to return!

There is also the question of whether the Chinese government will let the citizens travel abroad, and when.

 

It seems likely that China is not going to be in a hurry to unleash its hordes of tourists anytime soon...no more, and probably less, than all the other countries.

 

International tourism will probably be the last thing that will recover...years from now...

Edited April 17, 2020 by Brunolem

[Tchooptip]

1 hour ago, rumak said:

hmmmmmm     Well, you seem like you are an expert.   Please tell me why the US dollar,

which is manufactured out of thin air as zeros are added on to the ........err, BALANCE SHEET...

added on faster than one can count  .    try counting to a trillion   5555

 How come the dollar does not have the same fate as Zimbabwe paper ?

Note:  No problem for me.  They send me a small amount every month  ????

An expert? It was pure irony!

How the Baht can still be less than 35 Bahts for a Euro when we read in this article: Thai economy suffering worst damage since 1950s
 
 

 

[pookondee]

4 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Very true.  But when will the Thai people (non-wealthy) wake up.

Take a look at the Forbes top 10 richest people in Australia - once of the world's better economies and 14th in top GDP.

Then take a look at the Forbes top 10 richest people in Thailand - which economy is 1/3 of Australia.

Unbelievable - the Thai top 10 dwarf the Aussies - it is very very wrong in Thailand.

One day ........... hopefully soon ............... something is going to give.

It happens that way in Thailand because certain families have been able to guarantee a monopoly for their businesses through the right kickbacks.

 

In the west the multinationals gain monopolies by lobbying and paying off governments.

 

So, in effect, most of that money gets completely wasted in advertising and funding for political campaigns.

 

Directors of the MNs take out multi-millions in bonuses, the workers are paid pittance, and a small % goes to shareholders.

Not much difference when you think about it.

 

 

 

 

[Caine]

Perhaps they should all go back to picking rice, where they belong racist ba*t*rds.

[Number 6]

7 hours ago, Nordude said:

The 5000 Baht cash handout will definitely have an immediate impact on the exchange rate. They will have to print more money, and bringing more money into circulation makes the currency worth less. If you're not seeing any changes, it must be because your home currency is taking a hit as well.

It will have less than zero effect.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, SupermarineS6B said:

Strange historical fact. The result of backing the Japanese during WW2 caused Thailand a lot of grief well into the fifties and strangely enough backing the Chinese recently really hasn't done them any favours....... Better stick with them Farangs boys....... Steady money.......  

After WW2, the creation of UN, Marshall Plan and letting Japan keep their emperor were key elements in preserving the peace. Western farang countries had learned hard lessons. 

[The Theory]

!!! Meanwhile enjoy Nana while rates have been lowered significantly as low as 1950es. 
 

[SupermarineS6B]

56 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

After WW2, the creation of UN, Marshall Plan and letting Japan keep their emperor were key elements in preserving the peace. Western farang countries had learned hard lessons. 

Yep, all farang moves at keeping peace...... But i think i'd of strung the emperor up, he knew what was going on......