Covid19 - no need to panic - still

[AussieBob18]

Australia under this Covid lockdown is getting ridiculous. 68 people have died since Australia reported its first Covid case on 25th January.  68 deaths in 84 days.  In all that same time, on average over 12,000 people have died (average 144 a day).  Each of those deaths is tragic – all deaths are tragic – but that is life – we all die. I think for some people they are learning/facing for the first time in their lives that people die a lot. Someone died 2 days ago aged 94 (nil today) and that State Premier stated we must be more vigilant and enforce more lockdowns. A person in their 40s died yesterday, and the PM and all the State Premiers are saying they need to keep the lockdown in place – maybe until December – absolutely ridiculous. 
 
What has happenned in Australia, and in the World, is that the Govts and their Health Authorities and their Police have attempted to stop anyone dieing due to Covid. They have failed to face the reality that the lockdown was never meant to stop the infections completely – it is about slowing down the rate of infections so that the medical systems are not massively over-loaded, and hopefully the virus would be ‘burnt out’ because no one new was inbfected.  
 
However the inevitable truth is that without businesses open and people working and both people and businesses paying taxes, the money will run out to keep paying for all the medical staff and supplies, and the health authorities, and the police, and the polticicians, and all the public servants – most of whom are having a paid holiday (not sacked – cant do that). And the businesses that are open will soon find they do not have the cash flow or the borrrowing capacity to pay their staff, and they too will close meaning less and less taxes are being paid.  And fior some people that dont realise how the Govt pays for things – they have two main sources of money – taxes and borrowings.     
 
The Aust Govt will have to borrow more money, in a world that will have all the other countries and big businesses also looking to borrow. Interest rates worldwide will escalate and Govts will take on massive debts but the businesses will have to close and/or fold.  There will be the classic ‘falling dominoes’ and it will not be able to be stopped.  Many Banks will fold/close – Many Food and Grocery businesses will close/fold – Many Industries will close/fold.  The result will be a combination of massive stagnation and huge inflation.  You only need to look at Venezuala to see what happens to a country that has both of those economic conditions over a period of time.  The country is in utter chaos with massive inflation and very little employment – that is called stagnation.  Crime is rampant – millions are starving – it is an economic and social disaster in Venezuala.  That is the direction Australia and the World are heading.  Many people dont realise that economies are like gardens – if you do not water and feed and weed them, they will over time destroy thermselves. Some gardens are stronger than others, but they will all destroy themselves if they are not looked after. The Govt can only ‘print more money’ for a while before the same thing happens as happenned in Venezuala.  But unlike there, where it took years, in a world shutdown by Covid lockdowns the economic collapse will be ctastrophically quick.  Think what happnened in the 2008 Global Financial Crises – on steroids – when they start to fall, they will all fall. That is why many politicians want to re-open their country for business as soon as possible. 
 
China and WHO stopped the world from reacting as quickly as it had done in response to the previous Sars and Mers infections (both coronaviruses). For both of those they quickly implemented localised lockdowns to stop the spread and then managed those infected. China tried to do the same with Covid and to also hide it - but they failed.  The slow to act reality meant Covid had spread far and wide across the world, and the infection rate was going to be very high. WHO finally realised the truth and woke up – their early modelling predicted up to 200 million dying – with at least 50 million.
 
Yes the WHO reports and models were terrifying – once we all became fully aware of them.
Yes it was right to lockdown the world and try to stop the infections.
Because, with an infection rate of the flu (20%-40%) and with the mortality rate of Sars/Mers (15%-30%) the outcome looked horrifying.
If it was Sars-like and infected 20% infected that is 1.4 Billion people – and with a Sars-like  death rate of 15%, that is 210 Million dead.
And if it was Mers the numbers could be much higher.
 
So what did the Govts of the world do? They did the only thing they could and as WHO advised – they went into a lockdown and ramped up their medical systems and infrastructure to deal with it.  Most people never even ‘noticed’ the Sars and Mers epidemics. This time we are all very aware – in fact we are over-aware.  The whole thing has been sensationalised both for political and ratings reasons. In western democracies, the opposition is attacking and blaming the Govts for not doing enough – what is happenning in USA is the same in Australia and UK and most countries.      
 
BUT – what is the reality now? 
 
The infection rate is high. But it is far higher than the numbers show. You cannot get tested unless you show the symptoms in Australia and even then they dont want to ‘waste’ it on someone that is otherwise OK. The death rate is low – much lower than Sars or Mers.  How low?  Well that will be found out later, because the death rate is relative to the total infected rate, and the vast majority of people who catch Covid (or the saeasonal flu) are showing very little if any symptoms, and most of those infected have not been tested.  But as things are progressing, the mortality rate is clearly above seasonal flu, but it is no where near as high as Sars or Mers.  
 
I read an article where an ‘expert’ said exactly what I am many others said way back in the begginning.  The best true and available data that shows the infection and death rates of Covid, are from the Diamond Princess ship.  3711 people locked together in a ship for over a month, with the first 1-2 weeks being unaware of the Covid flu which was spreading unchecked from several passengers. 712 people became infected (19.2%).  13 people have died (1.8%). But the thing to note is that the vast majority of the people on the ship were over 60s – the median age being in the 80s.  Seasonal flu kills a lot of people every year (500k-750K) and the vast majoity (80+%) of those killed are over 70 – most in the 80s and 90s. The death rate amongst people over 80 who get the seasonal flu is higher than the average – much higher. Seasonal flu kills a lot of older and sick people every year – but it also kills some fit and healthy people – no one knows why (unless they had an underlying medical issue). 
 
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/65over.htm

Quote:
•    People who are 65 years of age and older also should be up to date with pneumococcal vaccination to protect against pneumococcal disease, such as pneumonia, meningitis, and bloodstream infections. Talk to your doctor to find out which pneumococcal vaccines are recommended for you.
•    Pneumococcal pneumonia is an example of a serious flu-related complication that can cause death. You can get the pneumococcal vaccine your provider recommends when you get a flu vaccine.
 
What is the death rate from seasonal annual flu? WHO estimates about 0.2%
But what is the death rate from flu when over 80?  No one seems to count that number, but it is clearly much higher than the worldwide average of 0.2%.
What is known is that about 80% of deaths from seasonal flu are those over 65.
Over 65s account for 9% of the world population – but I will use 16% because that is the number in Australia.
 
So of the 3711 Diamond Princess people, about 2700 were passengers – I will use 70% as over 65.
To compare the deaths rate to the total population I will add numbers so that there are 16,000 people (meaning 2700 becomes 16% of the total).
20% of deaths from flu are those under 65, so I will add 20% to the total deaths, and that now totals 16 deaths (+3).
But there are more people, so more would have been infected, and therefore more would have died – even though all the ‘new’ people are under 65.
The Covid deaths rate for under 65s is far less than over 65s (2 or 3 in Australia’s 81) I will add another 16 and double the total.
32 deaths of 15,000 people equals 0.2% - and I wager that will be close to the eventual numbers when they do have all the stats completed (in 2021).
 
It was right to lockdown the world when it appeared that between 50 million and 200 million would die.
But it is not right to continue the lockdown when it appears that only 1 million or 2 million will die.
More people die of TB and AIDS every year than that – it is accepted - and we live with it - and we all take precautions.
1.25 million die in road accidents (and far more seriously injured) and yet we dont ban private cars do we?
 
Lets start to gradually and sensibly open up the world again – the number of deaths will clearly not be as high as they said initially.
Lets protect those over 65/70 and keep them socially isolated as much as possible – keep the grandkids away.
Lets get back to work and look after the economic garden before we end up with something far worse than a few million deaths.
Let the people decide what precautions they should take going forward with regards to social distancing.
I for one will no longer be shaking hands with anyone – I wonder if that is why far more males get the flu every year?

 

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2Findex.html 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak

[Kinnock]

Most people fretting about the COVID stats have no context to understand if the numbers are exceptional or close to normal for general illnesses.

 

The world is having a mass panic just because the news media have found virus scare stories drive their business.

 

Be honest - have most of us ever tracked flu, TB, pneumonia or other illnesses before to give a context?

 

"Oh no ..... another X people died today of COVID!!!".  Boo Hoo.  Everybody got dead people, but that's no reason to destroy the economy along the way. 

 

Y people died of heart disease, suicide, car accidents, malaria, starvation - and Y is way bigger than X.

[TommyBlue]

Took a while to read but I understand what you say. I agree it has been too much lockdown and they over doing it. Hope your economy prediction is wrong or we are doomed either way if you and they are right. Thanks for the info will read the sites too.

[cornishcarlos]

Good post... 

 

Lets get the world started again, be more careful for sure (protect the vulnerable, as you rightly point out) but no more lock downs.

[AussieBob18]

4 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Most people fretting about the COVID stats have no context to understand if the numbers are exceptional or close to normal for general illnesses.

The world is having a mass panic just because the news media have found virus scare stories drive their business.

Be honest - have most of us ever tracked flu, TB, pneumonia or other illnesses before to give a context?

"Oh no ..... another X people died today of COVID!!!".  Boo Hoo.  Everybody got dead people, but that's no reason to destroy the economy along the way. 

Y people died of heart disease, suicide, car accidents, malaria, starvation - and Y is way bigger than X.

You hgave hit the nail on the head - many people who blindly accept that the lockdown is warranted and has to stay - do so because they dont know (or feel or or see) the real number of deaths in the world or in their own city/town that happen every day.  And most of them have no idea how the economy works - they think the Govt can just make money (to pay them). I find it utterly ridiculous that our political leaders in Aust are threatening to increase the lockdown and extend it to December because a few people have died. 

Edited April 19, 2020 by AussieBob18

[1FinickyOne]

at least you found something to occupy your time in isolation... 

 

I have no answers but I do understand the word "exponential" and assume that is the fear... 

[rumak]

22 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Lets start to gradually and sensibly open up the world again – the number of deaths will clearly not be as high as they said initially.
Lets protect those over 65/70 and keep them socially isolated as much as possible – keep the grandkids away.
Lets get back to work and look after the economic garden before we end up with something far worse than a few million deaths.
Let the people decide what precautions they should take going forward with regards to social distancing.

Sounds right to me.   Thanks for taking the time to write.   Sensible is a key word here.

IMO   that may be only about 2 percent of the world population  ????

Maybe that is why so much that happens seems senseless. 

  we still have wars and drunk drivers and reckless , greedy people , and the vast majority of people living unhealthy lifestyles.   do we really want to

stop all that ?  (sarcasm)

Free the people

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by rumak

[AussieBob18]

Just saw this post on TV.  Covid-19 wipes out 95 per cent of currency exchange business.

What some people do not realise is that this and all the other recent 'collapses' are going to escalate and will get across to the 'big end' of town eventually.  It is just a matter of time - we need to strat re-opening before it starts to happen.

 

[AussieBob18]

1 minute ago, kenk24 said:

at least you found something to occupy your time in isolation... 

I have no answers but I do understand the word "exponential" and assume that is the fear... 

That word is right. They have shown the exponential outcomes if the Covid spreads and it is as bad as Sras/Mers. But they havent shown the exponential outcomes if the world's economy is shut down for too long. No one knows how long is too long - but the great dpression of 1920s and the GFC in 2008 showed how big and how quickly things can fall apart economically.    

[cornishcarlos]

4 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

assume that is the fear... 

 

Assumption is creating fear.. You got that bit right 

[AussieBob18]

4 minutes ago, rumak said:

Sounds right to me.   Thanks for taking the time to write.   Sensible is a key word here.

IMO   that may be only about 2 percent of the world population  ????

Maybe that is why so much that happens seems senseless. 

  we still have wars and drunk drivers and reckless , greedy people , and the vast majority of

the world living very unhealthy lifestyles.   Who is it that thought we all should be locked up ?

oh, that's right.   Who

Very good point.  Too many people are ignorant of the reality of life - and that is that death is everywhere everyday.  Over educated and under experienced - they are everywhere.  

[rumak]

4 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Assumption is creating fear.. You got that bit right 

Frankly I am amazed how quickly everyone became obedient servants .  very scary 

 

This is the new normal i guess.   Any dissent is squashed as easy as swatting a fly. 

 

I think many people up to now have been able to stay under the radar and more or less

live our lives as we saw fit....... under, on the side,  somehow managing to maintain some sense of individual freedom.    When businesses,  mail,  activities,  venues,  beaches ! ,  etc are all shut

down and we are told to stay home and wear a mask at all times ..... something starts to get very uneasy in my gut.      It is FEAR,  but not of a virus my friends

[TheDark]

7 minutes ago, rumak said:

Frankly I am amazed how quickly everyone became obedient servants .  very scary 

 

This is the new normal i guess.   Any dissent is squashed as easy as swatting a fly. 

 

I think many people up to now have been able to stay under the radar and more or less

live our lives as we saw fit....... under, on the side,  somehow managing to maintain some sense of individual freedom.    When businesses,  mail,  activities,  venues,  beaches ! ,  etc are all shut

down and we are told to stay home and wear a mask at all times ..... something starts to get very uneasy in my gut.      It is FEAR,  but not of a virus my friends

Probably because most people understand the gravity of the situation. 

 

Those who don't will be culled. These groups include the funeral goers in Bangladesh, Church goers in USA and other anti-vaccine people who burn down 5G base stations, eg the people who has decided to go against scientific evidence what has been laid in front of them.

 

And I'm not even saying that's a bad thing. It's just means renewal of the world population, probably for the better. 

 

[cornishcarlos]

8 minutes ago, rumak said:

Frankly I am amazed how quickly everyone became obedient servants .  very scary 

 

This is the new normal i guess.   Any dissent is squashed as easy as swatting a fly. 

 

I think many people up to now have been able to stay under the radar and more or less

live our lives as we saw fit....... under, on the side,  somehow managing to maintain some sense of individual freedom.    When businesses,  mail,  activities,  venues,  beaches ! ,  etc are all shut

down and we are told to stay home and wear a mask at all times ..... something starts to get very uneasy in my gut.      It is FEAR,  but not of a virus my friends

 

You got it...

 

I'm stuck in Singapore, been here since end of January... 

Apparently I'm not allowed go home to be with my wife, because 11 people have died here this year and 47 in Thailand too !!

 

[simple1]

52 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

It was right to lockdown the world when it appeared that between 50 million and 200 million would die.
But it is not right to continue the lockdown when it appears that only 1 million or 2 million will die.

Accordingly from your research what is the projected number of deaths p.a. w/w from Covid without mitigation strategies?

 

To answer one of your questions, my doctor advised me that flu has an annual death w/w toll of around 500k, without vaccines would be in the millions

[rumak]

8 minutes ago, TheDark said:

Probably because most people understand the gravity of the situation.

Probably?   Do most people buy Colgate toothpaste because it is "probably" better than

other brands ?     

Or is it possible that they are just mindless followers of the advertising?   ( they do have

"dentists"  dressed in white gowns telling you how effective it is  )

[TheDark]

43 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

at least you found something to occupy your time in isolation... 

 

I have no answers but I do understand the word "exponential" and assume that is the fear... 

And this is what the word exponential looks like in practice.. even when there are physical isolation measurements in place. 

 

(I hope this blue-dotted twitter account, who is working for CNN is ok source of information. I'm sure these numbers are vetted).

 

Reported US coronavirus cases

 

Reported US coronavirus deaths:

 

 

 

[cornishcarlos]

2 minutes ago, TheDark said:

 

Reported US coronavirus deaths:

 

How many of those were healthy people with no underlying conditions ??

How many were MacDonalds eating, diabetic couch potatoes ?

How many were over 80 yrs old ??

[smutcakes]

What Aussie Bob fails to ever explain (and i share his view of the drastic affect on the economy) is the very real possibility of complete societal breakdown if the virus was permitted to run unchecked.

 

In the US, Italy, Spain, China the health services were strained to bursting points, even with the population in virtual lock down. If the virus was allowed to run its course then 100's of thousands or millions could of become infected in very short time, leading to huge numbers requiring hospital treatment, death completely overwhelming health services etc

 

In my opinion if that was permitted to happen, society, law and order could very well of completely disintegrated.

 

For me the factor with this is the exponential growth factor. i think in the US 7 weeks ago there had been zero deaths, now there are 37,000 and rising daily- this is repeated across many countries. If isolation was not mandated there would be a cataclysmic affect on the numbers requiring hospital treatment which would completely overrun all countries. I would expect at some point, health professionals would simply down tools as desperation/panic took hold.

 

How to get out of this is a difficult question and needs to be urgently addressed, but i think you are seriously downplaying the seriousness of the illness and the sheer contagiousness and high % of people seemingly requiring hospitalization. The population are simply not going to watch loved ones, young and old gasping for air and dying and not be able to access or receive health care.

 

 

[smutcakes]

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

How many of those were healthy people with no underlying conditions ??

How many were MacDonalds eating, diabetic couch potatoes ?

How many were over 80 yrs old ??

I dont know, do you?

Is it ok to accept that they are free to die?

Should we let anyone with a sickness die and not bother trying to save them?

It seems the world over there are plenty of health care personnel young, and old who are passing away and you would presume they would be relatively healthy.

[rumak]

11 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

You got it...

 

I'm stuck in Singapore, been here since end of January... 

Apparently I'm not allowed go home to be with my wife, because 11 people have died here this year and 47 in Thailand too !!

 

It sucks.   And my business is put on hold......  millions are losing jobs and businesses.

Who benefits ?   1.  Big Pharma   2.  Insurance mafia   3.  Military ( they are the brawn in all

that goes on     4.  The bureaucracy  that is responsible for making the LAWS  ( comically calling themselves public servants )  

 

and some here can only respond with tin hat comments    55555  

 

[rumak]

2 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

How to get out of this is a difficult question and needs to be urgently addressed, but i think you are seriously downplaying the seriousness of the illness and the sheer contagiousness and high % of people seemingly requiring hospitalization. The population are simply not going to watch loved ones, young and old gasping for air and dying and not be able to access or receive health care.

i think the OP  did address that.......   with a sensible suggestion

[smutcakes]

2 minutes ago, rumak said:

i think the OP  did address that.......   with a sensible suggestion

Hardly he makes a broad brush suggestion about opening up slowly and protecting the vulnerable. I expect some of the brightest minds in the medical world are looking at that as a matter of urgency, buts its a lot easier said than done you would assume, other wise many more countries would be doing it.

 

Unless of course you truly believe this is one big conspiracy and countries are happily destroying their own economies for some kind of hidden social order benefiting some Illuminati or other such nonsense.

[cornishcarlos]

5 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Is it ok to accept that they are free to die?

 

Yes... 

We go into lock down so our NHS is not over whelmed..

If there wasn't so many self inflicted ailments then they would be able to cope better...

That's the fast food, smoking, alcoholics etc etc

 

The old folk are gonna die at some point, or do you want everyone to just go on living and be a burden on future generations ??

[TheDark]

2 minutes ago, rumak said:

Probably?   Do most people buy Colgate toothpaste because it is "probably" better than

other brands ?     

Or is it possible that they are just mindless followers of the advertising?   ( they do have

"dentists"  dressed in white gowns telling you how effective it is  )

Go ahead. Go to public gatherings, break the curfew, walk mindlessly around the hospitals. I don't care.

 

Freedom comes with responsibility. So when you get sick or you infect your loved ones or other people, remember to take care of them as well.

[smutcakes]

2 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Yes... 

We go into lock down so our NHS is not over whelmed..

If there wasn't so many self inflicted ailments then they would be able to cope better...

That's the fast food, smoking, alcoholics etc etc

 

The old folk are gonna die at some point, or do you want everyone to just go on living and be a burden on future generations ??

You obviously don't have ill friends, a sick child or elderly parents who you care for....

[Logosone]

However the inevitable truth is that without businesses open and people working and both people and businesses paying taxes, the money will run out to keep paying for all the medical staff and supplies

 

Exactly right, hospitals will go bankrupt as well because of focusing on Covid19. Most of their income comes from things like hip operations, not Covid19.

 

 

[scubascuba3]

Good post.

 

I don't think the lockdowns were right though.

 

As for what i plan to do, it's continue the social distancing, avoiding shaking hands, not go inside to confined spaces such as restaurants, bars, if outside I'm ok with it.

 

If i meet a new girl.... I'm toying with checking their temperature before i commit...

[rumak]

1 minute ago, TheDark said:

Go ahead. Go to public gatherings, break the curfew, walk mindlessly around the hospitals. I don't care.

 

Freedom comes with responsibility. So when you get sick or you infect your loved ones or other people, remember to take care of them as well.

You have been trained well.      Enjoy your freedom

Funny that you and a few others always throw out the same  CNN type  responses.

I am very responsible,  so please do not infer otherwise.

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

What Aussie Bob fails to ever explain (and i share his view of the drastic affect on the economy) is the very real possibility of complete societal breakdown if the virus was permitted to run unchecked.

 

In the US, Italy, Spain, China the health services were strained to bursting points, even with the population in virtual lock down. If the virus was allowed to run its course then 100's of thousands or millions could of become infected in very short time, leading to huge numbers requiring hospital treatment, death completely overwhelming health services etc

 

In my opinion if that was permitted to happen, society, law and order could very well of completely disintegrated.

 

 

 

That is total nonsense.

 

There would have been a short sharp shock to the healthy systems, but that's happened anyway.

 

Why that would cause "society, law and order" to disintegrate I would like to know.

 

Much greater is the danger that society, law and order can break down NOW because of the massively alarmist, exaggerated and overblown reaction by governments world-wide. The cure is worse than the disease.