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Covid19 - no need to panic - still


AussieBob18

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7 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

You obviously don't have ill friends, a sick child or elderly parents who you care for....

 

You obviously haven't read the thread... The Op mentioned and so did I in my first reply.

 

Take extra care and isolate the vulnerable... 

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29 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

How many of those were healthy people with no underlying conditions ??

How many were MacDonalds eating, diabetic couch potatoes ?

How many were over 80 yrs old ??

sure, the weak are most susceptible... though some were young and healthy... [and how many were eating McD french fries on the couch?] We deserve to know. 

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1 minute ago, Logosone said:

China's shut-down and lockdown policies were a laughing stock world-wide, I saw a German expert talk about how China cordoned off Wuhan AFTER half the population, millions, had left already, and he was just shaking his head laughing.

 

Hence the virus spread beyond Wuhan. If China did such a great job in shutting down the country, pray tell, how did this virus then spread to the world?

 

You may also want to check a Chinese academic study done recently which tried to ascertain how much the social distancing measure of travel restrictions contributed to reducing the spread of transmission, since that study found that it was not possible to determine how much any particular measure contributed to the slow in transmissions because several measures were thrown at the virus at the same time.

 

I'm amazed you're able to make that determination when Chinese academics were unable to do so, are you an epidemiology statistician with data we've not heard of?

 

Lockdowns would have worked, if they had been done very early, they could have contained the virus. As it was China failed miserably in containing the virus, as did all other countries that tried lockdowns. You know, those countries that took guidance from the "experts" you worship so religiously.

Ok mate, you know best, and the leading authorities know nothing..... You should offer your solutions to the WHO an your Government....

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If the world had just carried on as normal, wonder what the figures would be....100 million infected with 10 million deaths and rising...??? No one knows...but sure as a bear is Catholic it would be a lot worse than now

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Just now, cornishcarlos said:

 

How many of those were healthy people with no underlying conditions ??

How many were MacDonalds eating, diabetic couch potatoes ?

How many were over 80 yrs old ??

A lot. But I would suggest that a lot of Americans are 'MacDonalds eating, diabetic couch potatoes' and therein lies the problem. The underlying health conditions of a nation play a big role in this matter, as does demographics, with countries with a significent older population having more to worry about (Italy for example has nearly 30% of its population over 55 years old https://www.statista.com/statistics/789270/population-in-italy-by-age-group/). 

The issue with Covid is there really isn't enough statistic in place to give an accurate assesment of overall health risk, whereas seasonal flu has been around long enough for us to have the stats. Saying this, most experts agree though that the RO is approx 2-3 times greater than seasonal flu and mortality is 20-30 times more (flu has 0.1% mortality, Covid anywhere between 2 and 3%, higher of course for at risk groups). This is why it is so worrying and why when you extrapulate the numbers out, with current measures you would see much, much higher amounts of death and if tens of millions of people become sick and millions die, the economy suffers, and not just because the workforce is being depleted. Widespread fear is bad for business: consumers won’t flock back to restaurants, book air travel, or spend on activities that might put them at risk of getting sick. 

Getting back to the OP's point though, I absolutely agree that the current lockdown cannot continue for much longer. The overall economic impact of the lockdown is causing far too much hardship already and if left for any longer, will literally decimate the world economy. But how to get back to 'normal', withought putting too many people at risk? Here are my suggestions:-

1. Those deemed 'most at risk' must continue to self-isolate until either the crisis abates or a vacine is found.

2. All people on the 'front line' must be adequately protected, meaning mask and gowns and anything else they need is readily available.

3. Borders must open but only people with a valid health certificate (dated within the last 2 weeks) are allowed to travel.

4. Testing MUST be ramped up, with those testing positive forced to self-isolate (or admitted to hospital if particularly bad). To this end, large amounts of government funds need to be deployed to testing, either from existing 'emergency funds' or seperate funds. For example if the US put $100 billion of the $2 trillion stimulus to testing, it would be able to test enough people to get on top of the outbreak. Testing machines (from the likes of Cepheid and Roche), can handle 4,200 tests a day; build five thousand of those machines, and you can test 20 million people a day. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both.

6. Emulate successful countries like South Korea, who have managed to mitigate the deadlier effects of the virus whilst still keeping much of their economy open. Behind its success has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success

 

Despite all the warnings over the years by the likes of the WHO and even Bill Gates, it has become painful obvious The World and in turn individual countries were woefuly unprepared for this pandemic and have been caught completely by surprise. We can't cry over spilled milk now but the answer to an opening of the economy is already there IF sensible and knowledgable people are allowed to talk. Once we impliment these measures worldwide (and it would need a worldwide consensus) we can finally start getting back to normal. And in the furture hopefully countries will realise their mistake (and cost) in not preparing fully for pandemics and get much better prepared for the future as you can be damn sure this is not going to be the first time we will see the likes of this again.   

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1 hour ago, TheDark said:

And this is what the word exponential looks like in practice.. even when there are physical isolation measurements in place. 

 

(I hope this blue-dotted twitter account, who is working for CNN is ok source of information. I'm sure these numbers are vetted).

 

Reported US coronavirus cases

 

Reported US coronavirus deaths:

The numbers are accurate as a reflection of official statistics, though the dates are cherry picked to maximise impact. But it's easy to be hoodwinked by the numbers, which are not actually exponential. To take the chart above, the rate of increase in deaths began slowing 20 days ago:

 

40 - 30 days ago: 8x increase

30 - 20 days ago: 12x increase

20 - 10 days ago: 7x increase 

10 days ago - now: <3x increase

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5 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

The numbers are accurate as a reflection of official statistics, though the dates are cherry picked to maximise impact. But it's easy to be hoodwinked by the numbers, which are not actually exponential. To take the chart above, the rate of increase in deaths began slowing 20 days ago:

 

40 - 30 days ago: 8x increase

30 - 20 days ago: 12x increase

20 - 10 days ago: 7x increase 

10 days ago - now: <3x increase

Cherrypicked? Care to explain how? I see there yesterday's date, a month before it and another month before it.

I also see number of deaths on 10 days intervals. 

 

For me that is more like raw data than cherrypicking dates. 

 

 

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Just now, TheDark said:

Cherrypicked? Care to explain how? I see there yesterday's date, a month before it and another month before it.

I also see number of deaths on 10 days intervals. 

 

For me that is more like raw data than cherrypicking dates. 

Statistics like this are always cherrypicked. In this case they were bound by using the start date (0 cases) and the current date, but they were able to use intervals that maximise impact.

 

By using numbers only, they've created an incorrect impression that the virus is spreading exponentially like you claim, whereas in fact the rate of spread actually slowed some time ago. 

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1 hour ago, smutcakes said:

Ok mate, you know best, and the leading authorities know nothing..... 

I'm not saying they know nothing. 

 

The WHO knows an awful lot, Mike Ryan was absolutely right to suggest that testing and isolating the infected, bringing the fight to the virus, was the key, and that just going into lockdown was not going to solve this issue.

 

However, when experts get it wrong, like the experts in the UK, who chose extreme lockdown at the expense of testing early on, because they believed, in the absence of evidence, like you, that lockdown was the all-solving panacea, then the media, and everyone in a free country has the right to point out that those experts got it wrong.

 

Especially when those lockdown policies are putting the economic existence of many people in danger, and are more likely to cause the societal and economic problems you referred to earlier.

 

We can't just sit there and defend everything governements and "experts" are doing, and keep trusting they're doing everything right, when obviously the result show that is not the case.

Edited by Logosone
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13 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I'm not saying they know nothing. 

 

The WHO knows an awful lot, Mike Ryan was absolutely right to suggest that testing and isolating the infected, bringing the fight to the virus, was the key, and that just going into lockdown was not going to solve this issue.

 

However, when experts get it wrong, like the experts in the UK, who chose extreme lockdown at the expense of testing early on, because they believed, in the absence of evidence, like you, that lockdown was the all-solving panacea, then the media, and everyone in a free country has the right to point out that those experts got it wrong.

 

Especially when those lockdown policies are putting the economic existence of many people in danger, and are more likely to cause the societal and economic problems you referred to earlier.

 

We can't just sit there and defend everything governements and "experts" are doing, and keep trusting they're doing everything right, when obviously the result show that is not the case.

In some cases they made mistakes, this is an unprecedented situation that no one in the whole world has been through before.....

 

I thought the criticism the UK Government are getting because they were to late to lock down....

 

I wont defend everything any Government does if i feel its wrong, but its very easy to sit and criticize with the benefit of hindsight. People have to make real time incredibly uncertain and difficult decisions with the information they have, decisions that no one has had to make previously.

 

I am sure all Governments are aware that they need to open up to try and reduce the economic impact, and i am sure all countries are urgently looking at the best and safest ways to that. I expect they are weighing up the scenarios on reducing measures, and assessing what is the likely human cost of doing so.

 

To think a couple of layman on Thai Visa are more knowledgeable and have the solutions when the combined world medical expertise does not, is frankly laughable, even if they don't get every decision correct.

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59 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

Statistics like this are always cherrypicked. In this case they were bound by using the start date (0 cases) and the current date, but they were able to use intervals that maximise impact.

 

By using numbers only, they've created an incorrect impression that the virus is spreading exponentially like you claim, whereas in fact the rate of spread actually slowed some time ago. 

So which dates would you like to use to cover the period? I will let you use any you like from 0 cases to today.....

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2 hours ago, smutcakes said:

Families would have people dying in their homes gasping for breath, no one would be able to get hospital treatment. When that kind of thing happens, desperation takes hold...

Have you attended speech writing classes given by Greta Thunburg recently?

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3 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

The numbers are accurate as a reflection of official statistics, though the dates are cherry picked to maximise impact.

This is true. The numbers are truly scary but the rate of increase has been slowed. The numbers of worldwide deaths per day has been hovering around 7500 a day for more than a week now. Every death is a tragedy but we must take good news where we can find it and if we have reached a plateau then we can be very thankful that the number of deaths has stopped increasing exponentially. A few days ago I posted that the number of deaths worldwide had increased 18 times in the last month. Today it is less than that (‘only’ 16 times) because the growth of deaths over the last few days has been less.

 

so these extreme actions seem to have worked, we have slowed down the number of deaths and it seems that most health systems have had time to prepare and that they won’t be overwhelmed. Governments have also had time to stockpile PPE and tests.
 

it does seem sensible that things start to reopen slowly now. There will be more outbreaks when this happens but I hope government have learned from what South Korea did. You need lots of tests and you need to contact trace.


 

 

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2 hours ago, Logosone said:

However, when experts get it wrong, like the experts in the UK, who chose extreme lockdown at the expense of testing early on, because they believed, in the absence of evidence, like you, that lockdown was the all-solving panacea, then the media, and everyone in a free country has the right to point out that those experts got it wrong.

 

The real mistake was not preparing for this the moment there was a potential of it happening. Many governments around the world were complacent. 
 

the UK would have tested more if it could have, but it didn’t have the tests or the infrastructure. Bad planning. It still isn’t testing as much as it wants now.

 

the lockdowns clearly don’t solve things overnight but they are working. The number of new cases and deaths are slowed. Experts said that lockdowns would reduce the RO number this would reduce the spread. They were correct, no?Mass testing and contact tracing may be the preferable option but a lot of countries lacked the tests and the infrastructure to do that. Hopefully, as economies begin to open up, they will be better prepared to do it.

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2 hours ago, smutcakes said:

To think a couple of layman on Thai Visa are more knowledgeable and have the solutions when the combined world medical expertise does not, is frankly laughable

One thing the "common folk   haha cough cough"   have that the "experts"  and govt. speechwriters don't have when they comment here :

        COMMON SENSE  AND  NO  PAID FOR ALLIANCES 

 

"combined world medical expertise"       now that is a mouthful   

i might need some listerine after saying that.    do you ever ask to see

the studies that prove it kills germs 50 percent more than Jack Daniels ? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, simple1 said:

Accordingly from your research what is the projected number of deaths p.a. w/w from Covid without mitigation strategies?

To answer one of your questions, my doctor advised me that flu has an annual death w/w toll of around 500k, without vaccines would be in the millions

Irrelevant question - I am not saying remove all lockdowns - read the post.

 

WHO estimates vary greatly but they do go up to 650K.  The problems is that there is a lot more deaths that are from 'lower respitatory' infections that are not counted as flu deaths, but many are as a result of the flu - over 3 mill a year.

 

This site may have some useful info for you. https://www.proclinical.com/blogs/2017-5/the-leading-causes-of-death-in-the-world-can-they-be-cured

 

 

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14 minutes ago, rumak said:

One thing the "common folk   haha cough cough"   have that the "experts"  and govt. speechwriters don't have when they comment here :

        COMMON SENSE  AND  NO  PAID FOR ALLIANCES 

 

"combined world medical expertise"       now that is a mouthful   

i might need some listerine after saying that.    do you ever ask to see

the studies that prove it kills germs 50 percent more than Jack Daniels ? 

Of course the virologists who sequenced the Covid 19 genome in January so we were able to quickly produce tests were wasting their time. This could have been done with common sense. The doctors on the frontline working 12 hour shifts who studied at medical schools for 7+ years just wasted their time. We could be saving as many lives with the application of common sense. The epidemiologists who have studied how previous viruses have spread and thus enabled us to learn from history, why did they bother? You only have to use common sense to understand how a virus works.

 

it is right to be questioning, but when that tips over so that people assume they automatically understand things better than the experts then society will be in big trouble.

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3 hours ago, smutcakes said:

In some cases they made mistakes, this is an unprecedented situation that no one in the whole world has been through before.....

This would make sense if ancient history was considered to be half a dozen years ago.

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36 minutes ago, chessman said:

it is right to be questioning, but when that tips over so that people assume they automatically understand things better than the experts then society will be in big trouble.

Apparently society is already in big trouble for trusting the experts.

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44 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Irrelevant question - I am not saying remove all lockdowns - read the post.<>SNIP>

To quote from your OP...

 

"It was right to lockdown the world when it appeared that between 50 million and 200 million would die.
But it is not right to continue the lockdown when it appears that only 1 million or 2 million will die.\".

 

if the above is not arguing lock downs shouldn't currently continue what are you trying to articulate? Plus to repeat, how many deaths would there be w/w p.a. if Covid-19 mitigation strategies are not kept in place until a vaccine becomes generally available.

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17 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Apparently society is already in big trouble for trusting the experts.

Do you really think doctors, virologists and epidemiologists are making the problem worse? That we could replace them with common sense?

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7 minutes ago, chessman said:

Do you really think doctors, virologists and epidemiologists are making the problem worse? That we could replace them with common sense?

I have listened to some interviews of eminent scientists talking common sense, but for some reason there is no space for them in the mainstream media.

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51 minutes ago, chessman said:

it is right to be questioning, but when that tips over so that people assume they automatically understand things better than the experts then society will be in big trouble.

Well, you used my quote to get your point off your chest.   The only problem was it went in a different tangent and implied that i said things that i did not.    Good CNN reporting sir.

The opinions of myself and some others here are broad ranging regarding the situation we are

in.  Every day you can read in your own biased media reports about "mistakes that were made".

 

The original OP , if you read it,  does not make scientific claims or disparage doctors as your post would lead others to believe.   The constant use of the words experts and facts is absurd, considering how much contradiction and disagreement there is.  NOW that is what someone with common sense will understand.   

 

Also, as far as the medical opinions you so cherish are concerned,  here also there are many people , even doctors who disagree with the massive reliance on drugs to maintain health.

I have lots of personal experience, as do many others here.  We have no certificates on the wall,  but I assure you I have a very decent IQ  and have been able to evaluate what I think are good uses of medicines and which are bad. ( with regards to my own situation).   

 

Everyone supposedly knows , even you (as doctors admit it ),  that certain foods are better than others,  and that obesity is a worldwide epidemic.   Common sense tells me that I will eat certain foods and stay fit.  But I do not see the millions of obese people being locked up for disregarding what is obviously dangerous to their health.  Heck,  I even see doctors and politicians who look terribly unhealthy .  Aren't they the same ones that I am supposed to follow ?         

 

to be continued.......  or not

 

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One does feel slightly more confident in the ultimate outcome when one realises that 95% of posters on this thread are not in charge of-and therefore not responsible for-ANYTHING relating to the big Corona.

 

I am equally confident that they are all obeying the relevent rules and regulations of whatever country that they find themselves in.

 

The Spencerian philosophy "survival of the fittest" is,just that,a social model which is usually  propagated by the US far right and is in constant conflict with the Social Utilitarian philosophy of "the greatest good for the greatest number"

 

Nevertheless writing is,in most cases,very good therapy.

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1 minute ago, Odysseus123 said:

One does feel slightly more confident in the ultimate outcome when one realises that 95% of posters on this thread are not in charge of-and therefore not responsible for-ANYTHING relating to the big Corona.

 

I am equally confident that they are all obeying the relevent rules and regulations of whatever country that they find themselves in.

 

The Spencerian philosophy "survival of the fittest" is,just that,a social model which is usually  propagated by the US far right and is in constant conflict with the Social Utilitarian philosophy of "the greatest good for the greatest number"

 

Nevertheless writing is,in most cases,very good therapy.

so i guess you feel better now ?   LOL    

 

 

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