Covid19 - no need to panic - still

[TheDark]

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The reason why I mention Sweden is that they are the example of a country that has basically done very little. Insignificant testing and only late and half-hearted and very limited social distancing.

 

So you can use that example to compare against a country like Austria which has done a whole lot of testing and the UK which has done less testing (per capita) but has been strong on social distancing.

Sweden is not doing well.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=DNK+DEU+NOR+SWE+USA+OWID_WRL

Edited April 19, 2020 by TheDark
Adding data source

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

I am in close contact with a friend in Sweden and he is astounded. Being of a similar political ilk as myself (right) he is astounded that the Swedish leaders didnt follow blindly the dogma of locking down the poluation.  Over 70s have been asked to isolate themselves for their own saefty as it is clear that this virus affects the elderly far more than the under 70s (like all flu viruses) and has requested the remainder practice social distancing as much as possible, but keep things going as much as possible - and their borders are closed to most incoming.

 

Your point:  'it was testing and isolating the infected and not social distancing that helped the UK to reduce the number of cases' is exactly correct. And that is why Sweden has decided to follow the Germany model and ramp up the testing - keep things as they are, but test as many as possible and get anyone testing positive to self-isolate as much as possible.  Sensible.  Astonishing. 

I saw a German journalist for the equivalent of the German BBC who was based in Sweden extol the virtue of the Swedish model to a German panel. He was obviously very taken with the sensible approach in Sweden.

 

If Sweden turns out to have identical mortality rates as the UK, or mortality rates that are not different by a lot that would indicate a wholesale failure of the social distancing model.

 

However, the UK has also ramped up testing for a while now, so they may have better figures due to that. No doubt Sweden will also do that though, as you say.

 

This virus has the potential to divide humanity. It will divide locals against foreigners, old vs young, right vs left, rich vs poor, immune vs infected. I really wonder what this new world will look like.

 

[Logosone]

12 minutes ago, TheDark said:

Sweden is not doing well.

 

Same exact mortality rate as the UK as of today.

 

Based on Johns Hopkins figures.

 

Same website you posted:

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?country=GBR+AUT+DEU+SWE

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by Logosone

[mauGR1]

8 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

As usual facts evade the lefties so easily.

Honestly, i wonder what right or left has to do with this awful situation.

I am as leftist as i can be, how comes that i agree with everything you say ?

[cornishcarlos]

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

This virus has the potential to divide humanity. It will divide locals against foreigners, old vs young, right vs left, rich vs poor, immune vs infected. I really wonder what this new world will look like.

 

But it will never divide TVF !! 

[TheDark]

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

Same exact mortality rate as the UK as of today.

 

Based on Johns Hopkins figures.

UK is far ahead of killing her citizens. This is mainly because UK delayed it's actions too long, before it started to apply and tell the citizens about physical distancing. 

 

Like said before. Sweden is a large country with quite few people, while it also has couple of over 1 million people cities. 

 

 

[Logosone]

1 minute ago, TheDark said:

UK is far ahead of killing her citizens. This is mainly because UK delayed it's actions too long, before it started to apply and tell the citizens about physical distancing. 

 

Like said before. Sweden is a large country with quite few people, while it also has couple of over 1 million people cities. 

 

 

 

Yes, people talk about the population density. However, the people per km squared for Stockholm and London, the two main affected areas is not hugely different. 

 

Rather oddly the virus did not always attack urban centres the worst either, some of the worst affected areas were villages in the Lombardy region and Catalonia.

[sqwakvfr]

 

This made me smile and laugh. 

[Logosone]

3 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

I think you are right - there is a new world order coming - but it aint was the liberals wanted with globalism (including open borders and centralised rule like the EU/UN) - it will be exactly the opposite. The weakness of globalism and open borders and centralised management has clearly been shown through this pandemic - both the initial spread and recognition/response, and the implementation of excessive lock-downs. 

The virus has shown up some great weaknesses in our systems.

 

It certainly has confirmed the strength of the nation state vs supranational communites, the importance of manufacturing vs services. It has also shown that indeed the decentralised response of Germany was, by accident, better than the UK's centralised approach.

 

A lot of Cobra theatrics in the UK, few results. In Germany no martial pretense but results in spite of government one is tempted to say.

 

 

[mauGR1]

5 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Good point and fair enough - but see later post about globalism open borders and centralised management - left wing ideals. Hope you agre with that one too. If you do then you are really middle-left (rational moderate).

I am not much into political labels, i'm just crying out for freedom and common sense.

I have always had respect for the institutions, but they should know when enough is enough.

[rumak]

22 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

Rumak..fer gawd's sake..I swear I didn't know!

 

Err..where they fer or agin Jeff Davis?

ya see !   a little humor,  some basic human good will ,  and even though y'all

don't always see eye to eye ....... at least we can respect each other's choices.

 

now,  how bout comin down to the Okies and bringin those young offspring along.

we'll be sure to Get er done !     PS:   some of us gettin that cabin fever real bad 

[Skallywag]

10 hours ago, rumak said:

Frankly I am amazed how quickly everyone became obedient servants .  very scary 

 

This is the new normal i guess.   Any dissent is squashed as easy as swatting a fly. 

 

.......we are told to stay home and wear a mask at all times 

No one I know of has been "told to stay home" in Thailand. Yes, I wear a mask now when outside.

Am not a barfly, so not being able to hang out at bars doesn't affect me.  Don't need to "shop" for new stuff at malls, or see a new movie at a mall

Still get beer at my local shop (guess they are dissenters).  Drink beer out by the pool here with friends in the evening (pool closed though - that sucks)  My favorite massage ladies are still giving massages (stay inside shop now with door ajar) . TF still active.  Walk every day along Dongtan or Pattaya beach.  Get food at restaurants (take away is a bit of a drag)  Buy groceries when needed.  Can walk inside Big C or Central if too hot out.

Less noise, more serene, no drunken rowdy tourists, less traffic, less trash. 

Almost everything since the "shutdown" has been a positive as I see it. 

 

[chessman]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

In Germany you only have to be 1.5 metres apart, 2 metres in the UK.

 

In Germany it is okay for more than 2 people to go out at the same time if they are from the same household.

 

In Germany harvest people from abroad are allowed in the country to work.

The first one makes no difference in practice.

 

2nd one is the same in the UK.

 

3rd one is also true in the UK

 

The Germans brought these rules in earlier hence a tougher lockdown.

[chessman]

49 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

My contact in Sweden confirms - UK far harsher than Countries around him, and as he and we all see, the UK police are far harsher in their enforcements - arrests/fins for being in front yard of house? As usual facts evade the lefties so easily.

This is just not true. France you have to print a paper to give the reason why you are out. You should only exercise 2km from your house. The UK doesn't have that. A few overzealous cops have been fining people but there was a lot of criticism of this and it stopped

[chessman]

50 minutes ago, Logosone said:

If Sweden turns out to have identical mortality rates as the UK, or mortality rates that are not different by a lot that would indicate a wholesale failure of the social distancing model.

Hahaha, this obviously makes no sense. You need to compare Sweden with countries that are more demographically similar.

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, chessman said:

The first one makes no difference in practice.

 

2nd one is the same in the UK.

 

3rd one is also true in the UK

 

The Germans brought these rules in earlier hence a tougher lockdown.

Indeed, the much vaunted "social distancing" rules literally treated as law in the UK and Germany, make no difference in real life.

 

An MIT study found that you'd have to be 8 metres apart, 1.5 or 2 metres are useless.

 

Germany brought the rules in earlier, but is not enforcing them as hard as the UK and also lifting them earlier than the UK.

[rumak]

26 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Less noise, more serene, no drunken rowdy tourists, less traffic, less trash. 

Almost everything since the "shutdown" has been a positive as I see it. 

 

i just came across your recent post  : 

These are the situations that will be causing numbers to escalate when Thailand re-opens.  Asymptomatic people are still numerous, possibly 1/3 of all infected. 

So in any busy area someone could infect you even though they had their "temperature" check at the entrance.  This includes bars, malls, restaurants, and the ubiquitous 7-11's

 

As you note :  much of Thailand is closed.   The quiet and lack of traffic especially places like

Pattaya and CM, for example,  are a pleasure when getting around.  sabai sabai .  

Most Thais  are spending a lot of time home (no, not forced)... but the government does encourage it and forbids group gatherings.  

If Rumak had his wish the world population would have been held at the 1927 level of 2 billion.

Not even 100 years later and we are approaching 8 billion !  

My insistence that there is no common sense in this world is no more evident than when one

looks at what has happened as the population explodes.   ( a subject for another day)

Anyway,  this sudden shutdown of activity does have some of us remembering the good old days.   I am doing fine,  except I cannot do my business or sell what i want to sell .  

I can eat.   But what about all the Thais  that work for 10 or 15 thousand baht a month and are

now without jobs.  And all the small businesses?   

Yes, for you and your friends.... maybe it is a positive.    But for the masses

in thailand and many other countries............ not so good

Edited April 19, 2020 by rumak

[chessman]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Germany brought the rules in earlier, but is not enforcing them as hard as the UK and also lifting them earlier than the UK.

Enforcing them the same. Look at the pictures of Parks in the UK on a sunny day... full of people.

Germany will lift them earlier because they were better organized with testing.

[Logosone]

33 minutes ago, WalkingOrders said:

The new world will look just like this one with a few less people. An insignificant number of the total and thats about it. !!!

 

That would be great. I hope you're right.

 

However, I doubt it very much. The changes the virus will cause will be far reaching.

 

For a start many countries will start to invest heavily in health care. More tax money spent, as far more debt has been taken on. So tax increases are likely.

 

Travel will probably never be the same. The consolidation of airlines means there will be less competitors, so prices will increase, after the intial attempts to re-attract tourists with low fares cease. Perhaps there will be certificates required.

 

There may be id cards, specifically to show you're healthy.

 

There will be far less research on other illnesses, as funds will be concentrated on coronaviruses.

 

There will be increased distrust, dislike, even hatred, of foreigners, across the board. Even in China we're seeing them now target Africans.

 

There will be many consequences of this pandemic.

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, chessman said:

Hahaha, this obviously makes no sense. You need to compare Sweden with countries that are more demographically similar.

No, I don't think so. The people per sq km in Stockholm and London figure is actually very similar, because London is set on a very large area.

 

Besides, some of the worst affected areas have been rural villages in Lombardy and Catalonia.

 

It hasn't always been the the most densely populated urban centres. Sometimes, but often not.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Logosone

[chessman]

4 minutes ago, rumak said:

If Rumak had his wish the world population would have been held at the 1927 level of 2 billion.

It is interesting that since this virus started, a lot of people are using the website https://www.worldometers.info to get data about this virus. But the original purpose of this website is to give statistics about population. If you look now, there are almost 2.5 births for every death. The figures about the virus are pretty scary but this increase in population should also cause a lot of concern.

[rumak]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

It is interesting that since this virus started, a lot of people are using the website https://www.worldometers.info to get data about this virus. But the original purpose of this website is to give statistics about population. If you look now, there are almost 2.5 births for every death. The figures about the virus are pretty scary but this increase in population should also cause a lot of concern.

I was concerned 30 years ago.    I think i remember people making some  tin foil hat comments

about my concerns         some things never change  ????

[FarFlungFalang]

As long as we share our food with those that are hungry the world should be OK.The rest are just human concepts that only exist in the minds of humans and they are more of a threat than the virus.Owership,greed,hate and the fear of death.Beware the cure!5555

[Scott]

Numerous off-topic posts and replies have been reported and removed.   Keep it civil or face a suspension.

 

[Odysseus123]

1 hour ago, rumak said:

PS:   some of us gettin that cabin fever real bad 

Indeed-thereby leading to the opening of dozens of threads on the Big Corona on this site where the main protagonists say precisely the same thing over and over again.

Humans are pretty resilient...nothing has ever really halted the march of Homo Sapiens-which (apart from any other foibles) are the deadliest killing species on the planet.

 

By the way,it wasn't really a very nice world in 1928.The Great Depression and the world's largest mass slaughter were just around the corner..and it's second greatest mass slaughter had ceased-after a fashion-a mere 10 years before.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Odysseus123

[chessman]

20 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No, I don't think so. The people per sq km in Stockholm and London figure is actually very similar, because London is set on a very large area.

And stockholm has been really badly affected. Much more than half the total deaths in Sweden.

 

Rest of the country is more spread out, less large cities. UK also has many more international travel links. 

 

More than 200 countries have corona virus cases. Sweden has the 11th highest number of deaths per million of population. It will overtake Switzerland and go into 10th in a few days. Not too sure why you are insistent on choosing a country higher in the table to compare it with. Norway, Finland and Denmark are much more similar countries and better for comparisons.

 

 

[johnnybangkok]

55 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The reason why I mention Sweden is that they are the example of a country that has basically done very little. Insignificant testing and only late and half-hearted and very limited social distancing.

 

So you can use that example to compare against a country like Austria which has done a whole lot of testing and the UK which has done less testing (per capita) but has been strong on social distancing.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109066/coronavirus-testing-in-europe-by-country/

 

We do have stats and numbers, but we do not have serious, strong studies that would prove, say in the UK, it was when testing was ramped up that it was testing and isolating the infected and not social distancing that helped the UK to reduce the number of cases.

 

What I see is that whenever a country has succeeded in keeping the mortality low, like Germany, South Korea it was mass testing that was key. Not social distancing.

 

If Sweden, who did neither, has the same numbers as the UK, but worse numbers than a country like Germany that did mass testing on a great scale, that would support the argument that mass testing, not social distancing, was the key. But yes, we need hard studies to confirm this.

 

Personally I don't think people will start dying in Sweden in greater numbers, on the contrary, as they ramp up testing their case numbers will go up drastically but their deaths probably won't. So their mortality figure will get better.

 

I had a look at the study you posted. It looks very poor and not peer reviewed. I was thinking more of studies that evaluate data from centres for disesase control, not online surveys.

Helsinki has a population of 600,000, London has a population of 8.9 million, nearly as much as the whole of Sweden (10 million). Currently 30% of the whole of the UK's Covid dead are in London a total of 3,825. 

It's a big number but do you want to try and tell me that self-isolation hasn't kept that number lower than it would have been if everyone was allowed to wander around and mingle like before? 

The fact that Sweden chose it's path is in no way an indication of whether it would work for everyone else, especially when talking about highly populated areas like London. IF successful (and the panels still out on that one) then all that will be proven is their method worked for Sweden (they are still doing other things though that make absolute sense and pointed out by other posters i.e. quarantining the most at risk).  

The better anology would be Seol as with a population of nearly 10 million it closely resembles London. Through extensive testing, tracking and isolating they have managed to keep infection numbers impressively low and deaths even lower (in the hundereds rather than thousands). But (and it's a big but) they had already been geared up for this through preperations from SARS, h1N1, Swine Flu etc. Their disease control authorities are very well funded and sprang into action with mass testing on an unprecidented scale. They caught it early, did all the right things and are a model to emulate.

The UK (and many other countries) on the other hand weren't well-funded, reacted awfully (to herd immunity or not to herd ummunity) and don't have the testing capabilities to even start down this route.

So we know what works for sure but where we differ in opinion is what to do when that option isn't available to you. My point is that self-isolation is a better option whilst waiting for the tried and trusted method to be available (all you hear from the UK government is this magic 100,000 tests a day goal they are trying desperately to achieve) than letting everyone just get on with it which we absolutely know will spread the virus. If you type 'covid stats for london' you will see a nice graph and a current plateu and the predictions are this will remain and cases start dropping in the next few weeks. This will hopefully give the incompetant British government the time they so desperately need to get the large scale testing (that they know will work) up and running.  

They are buying time but it is time being given to them through self-isolation.

 

(And yes this is the politicians fault and no it doesn't mean that capitalism is the fault and isolationism is the answer (as many other posters would love to see). Questions need to be asked  and people need to be held responsible but lets get things under control first).    

 

[johnnybangkok]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

No one I know of has been "told to stay home" in Thailand. Yes, I wear a mask now when outside.

Am not a barfly, so not being able to hang out at bars doesn't affect me.  Don't need to "shop" for new stuff at malls, or see a new movie at a mall

Still get beer at my local shop (guess they are dissenters).  Drink beer out by the pool here with friends in the evening (pool closed though - that sucks)  My favorite massage ladies are still giving massages (stay inside shop now with door ajar) . TF still active.  Walk every day along Dongtan or Pattaya beach.  Get food at restaurants (take away is a bit of a drag)  Buy groceries when needed.  Can walk inside Big C or Central if too hot out.

Less noise, more serene, no drunken rowdy tourists, less traffic, less trash. 

Almost everything since the "shutdown" has been a positive as I see it. 

 

Glas it's all working out for you. 

Perhaps ask the ill, the unemployed, the hungry, the soon to be destitute and the dead what 'positives' they are seeing.

[moe666]

12 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

That word is right. They have shown the exponential outcomes if the Covid spreads and it is as bad as Sras/Mers. But they havent shown the exponential outcomes if the world's economy is shut down for too long. No one knows how long is too long - but the great dpression of 1920s and the GFC in 2008 showed how big and how quickly things can fall apart economically.    

If we allow things to be normal say as in NY normal who will be able to take care of the sick and the very sick people that will over whelm the system. All that can be done at present is to slow this virus down until an affective vaccine is developed. I am in the kill zone but still have some living todo.

Edited April 19, 2020 by moe666

[Odysseus123]

6 minutes ago, moe666 said:

I am in the kill zone

Me too-I wouldn't even make a decent slice of Soylent Green..

 

But I am not volunteering for anything either!

 

Best of health to us all.✌️