How Did this Happen

[Mulambana]

The Western countries are devasted by Corona Virus. More deaths and destruction. They are trying to find scapegoat like China and WHO. 
Asian and African countries are spared. You might argue and say they are not testing large number of samples, hiding their numbers blah blah. 
Countries located next China like Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, S. Korea are doing far better than Western countries. 
Even a poor country like India with large slums in all most all big cities are doing far better than Western nations. 
Westerners have the notion of pandemic occurring in Africa and poor Asian countries but not anymore.

How and why did this happen? Please post your feelings/hunch. No need to post arguments about whose numbers are correct. 

 

[timendres]

Different cultures, different spread dynamics.

The real damage is being done to the economies.

Let's see how things look when the dust clears.

[Sheryl]

A post with conspiracy nonsense has been removed.

 

COVID is on the increase in South Africa, and in several other African countries as well . Has also steadily risen in India and may not have yet peaked there.  So I think it is premature to say these places  have been spared.

 

However their demographics (young population) favors less severe infections. Which are also less likely to be detected.

 

As for Singapore, perhaps you have nto ready the latest news there

 

 

[daveAustin]

How can one scapegoat the inventor? Op, I would sit tight and watch this unfold - very early days for Africa and Singapore is ramping up as said. But would bear in mind that Western nations are typically transparent. If you think China has been, there's no point in commenting further.

[Logosone]

You can't say Asian countries are "doing better" than Western countries and then say 'don't discuss if numbers are correct".

 

Western countries are trying hard to be transparent. They have a free press a democratic opposition which have demanded that death figures be accurately reported.

 

In contrast South Korea is known for having endemic corruption. Whilst their pandemic response has been excellent, in terms of actual accuracy of the figures nobody would really expect South Korean figures to be accurate. The same goes for Japan, China, Taiwan and Thailand. Their figures are most likely not reflecting reality.

 

Even in the West the UK has found that reporting accurate numbers is rather difficult. 

 

In terms of Africa, if you have little capacity to test and identify cases obviously the numbers will be low. Little surprise that one of the few countries with the capacity to test somewhat, South Africa, has the most number of cases.

 

Africa and Asia are just not reporting accurately.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Logosone

[watthong]

1 hour ago, Mulambana said:

The Western countries are devasted by Corona Virus. More deaths and destruction. They are trying to find scapegoat like China and WHO.

Really, China and WHO are scapegoats in this pandemic?

Which planet have you just arrived from? 

[lamyai3]

Numbers are unlikely to be accurate in most countries in the region, not least since they're testing so few people. But while it's possible to hide numbers of people who have mild symptoms, it's very different when it comes to overwhelmed hospitals and mass numbers of deaths.

 

Both China and Iran (with their far more extreme restrictions on media freedom) failed miserably in hiding the numbers of sick and dying once they spiralled out of control, so there's no way anything significant could remain hidden for long in Thailand or the surrounding region. To paraphrase an old political slogan, "It's the climate, stupid." 

Edited April 22, 2020 by lamyai3

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

Numbers are unlikely to be accurate in most countries in the region, not least since they're testing so few people. But while it's possible to hide numbers of people who have mild symptoms, it's very different when it comes to overwhelmed hospitals and mass numbers of deaths.

 

Both China and Iran (with their far more extreme restrictions on media freedom) failed miserably in hiding the numbers of sick and dying once they spiralled out of control, so there's no way anything significant could remain hidden for long in Thailand or the surrounding region. To paraphrase an old political slogan, "It's the climate, stupid." 

 

The problem with the theory that heat contains the virus is that MERS, a coronavirus, thrived very nicely in Saudi Arabia, where it is exceptionally hot and sunny. We don't know for sure yet if heat really has a major effect on the virus. It's just speculation and theory.

 

The fact that testing in the Asian countries is not done on the same level as it is in Europe obviously affects the figures. A look at Japan is illustrative here:

 

"But experts say the true number of cases in the country almost certainly exceeds 1,400. The government has been criticized for its strict testing criteria, which requires patients to have had a fever of greater than 37.5 Celsius (99.5 F) for more than four days, unless the patients are elderly, have other underlying health conditions, or are connected to a previously confirmed case. Some people who meet the criteria have been denied tests."

 

Abe’s government is going directly against the WHO’s firm recommendation to “test, test, test,” leading many to conclude that the coronavirus may be far more widespread in Japan than the numbers indicate."

 

https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-explainers/2020/3/28/21196382/japan-coronavirus-cases-covid-19-deaths-quarantine

 

Quite clearly there is a deliberate government policy in Japan to try and minimize numbers by simply not testing. This no doubt is in response to the Diamond Princess debacle, where Japan showed shocking incompetence and was widely ridiculed abroad for the explosion of cases on the ship. Clearly Japanese officials want to avoid further loss of face of this kind and decided to simply reduce testing to a bare minimum to make it appear as if they're doing something.

 

The SARS Cov2 virus in fact lends itself perfectly to a policy of hiding the numbers, the vast majority of people have very mild or no symptoms at all, the death rate may be as low as 0.37% and when a death occurs it can easily be ascribed to reasons other than Covid19.

 

Only in the case of a very acute and virulent outbreak like Italy, Iran or the US is it not possible to overlook the elevated death figures. However such virulent outbreaks appear in a minority of countries, places like Germany, Austria, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland or Russia show that this does not always happen.

 

The Asian countries are not testing properly. They are not recording deaths properly. We can not trust figures out of China, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos etc, and even South Korea, whose pandemic response has been fairly good is a country known for endemic corruption where the truth most often falls victim to the interests of the powerful.

 

I do not trust the figures out of Asia. As for Africa, not even worth considering the possibility they are reporting accurately.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Logosone

[OneMoreFarang]

21 hours ago, Mulambana said:

Please post your feelings/hunch.

Just out of interest: Why are you interested in "feelings/hunch"?

There are already lots of interesting explanations out there which are based on facts.

I.e. some countries which experienced SARS recently learned from that and were a lot better prepared.

[cornishcarlos]

21 hours ago, Sheryl said:

As for Singapore, perhaps you have nto ready the latest news there

 

Quite a significant elderly population but still relatively low numbers in the general population/community. Average around 20/day this week, down from 30/day last week.

Very high numbers everyday in the quarantined foreign workers dormitories though for couple weeks now. However, they seem tho have that under control !

Surprisingly, still only 11 deaths out of 10,000 + cases ??

[DaRoadrunner]

It spread by people flying to other countries.

 

More flights / people go to the wealthier countries hence more spread?

 

Fewer people flying to the poorer countries, hence less spread?

 

Roadrunner didn't go anywhere, hence no spread.

[Mulambana]

51 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

More flights / people go to the wealthier countries hence more spread?

Only three countries are wealtheir (based on per capita GDP-PPP) than SIngapore in the World and only one (Luxembourg) is located in Europe and the two (Quatar and Macau) are located in Asia.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Mulambana

[Hanaguma]

Asian countries have fewer people with pre-existing conditions that would make the virus more lethal- obesity, diabetes, drug use, etc. Here in Japan there are a few more possible factors; a tradition of hygiene and bathing, lack of casual touching for greetings, possible influence of widespread vaccination for TB and other respiratory ailments. 

 

I would hardly call this such a disaster, except economically.  Even if for example, 100,000 Americans die, that is a tiny sliver of the population. that would be less than one person in 3,000. The economic costs will be far higher in human terms in the long run.

[Sheryl]

6 weeks ago there were those saying that the US had been largely spared/didn't have a big problem.

 

And a month before that it was solely a problem in China.

 

The pandemic is still spreading and it is way too soon to know the outcome by counyty.

[thaibeachlovers]

How- mass travel by air.

Why- overpopulation and crowded cities, and apparently wet markets

 

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Asian countries have fewer people with pre-existing conditions that would make the virus more lethal- obesity, diabetes, drug use, etc. Here in Japan there are a few more possible factors; a tradition of hygiene and bathing, lack of casual touching for greetings, possible influence of widespread vaccination for TB and other respiratory ailments. 

 

I would hardly call this such a disaster, except economically.  Even if for example, 100,000 Americans die, that is a tiny sliver of the population. that would be less than one person in 3,000. The economic costs will be far higher in human terms in the long run.

Modern medicine is great for keeping people alive that would normally die if nature took its course. Couple that with living in pollution, and eating bad food full of chemicals, obesity etc. It's no surprise that Corona is killing lots of people, as we have created ideal conditions for it to spread and ideal hosts to infect.