UK on track to become one of Europe's worst hit in COVID-19 pandemic

By Andy Bruce

 

An ambulance drives past Aylestone Baptist Church, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Leicester, Britain, April 27, 2020. REUTERS/Andrew Boyers

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain is on track to become one of Europe’s worst-hit countries in the coronavirus pandemic, according to data on Tuesday that showed deaths from COVID-19 had already topped 20,000 by April 17, including a fast-rising toll in care homes.

 

The Office for National Statistics said the death toll involving COVID-19 in England and Wales was 35% higher than the daily figures for deaths in hospitals released by the government as of April 17, according to official data that include deaths in the community.

 

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said 21,284 people overall had died as of April 17 with mentions of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus, on their death certificates.

 

That was some 35% higher than the 13,917 people who died in hospitals, as published by the government on April 18.

 

That takes the United Kingdom’s total death toll as of April 17 beyond those reported by France - which also includes deaths in care homes - and Spain, according to Reuters calculations, though lower than Italy’s total toll.

 

A trebling of deaths in care homes in England and Wales within the space of a few weeks contributed to a far higher toll.

 

The ONS said that overall 7,316 people had died in care homes overall during the 16th week of 2020, almost treble the number reported in the 13th week.

 

According to figures released by the health ministry on Monday, 21,092 people had died in hospitals across the United Kingdom after testing positive for COVID-19.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-28

 

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Incorrect and trolling post removed.

A direct consequence of allowing the virus to spread in a callous herd immunity experiment.

9 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

A direct consequence of allowing the virus to spread in a callous herd immunity experiment.

Probably more to do with no inbound flight restrictions and tens of thousands of people from anywhere in the world arriving everyday without so much as a temperature check...UK has always like importing goods but that's taking it too far....not to mention all the lefty students haveing booze parties with cuddles galore plastered all over Facebook.

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

Technically speaking, Reuters is correct.

 

However as far as I can see the UK has signed out of the EU and unless things change drastically, the UK will leave the EU on 31st December 2020.

 

The UK will revert to a sovereign state with its own laws, rules and regulations and will no longer be subject to the EU rules and regulations.

EU has nothing to do with this.

5 minutes ago, baansgr said:

Probably more to do with no inbound flight restrictions and tens of thousands of people from anywhere in the world arriving everyday without so much as a temperature check...UK has always like importing goods but that's taking it too far....not to mention all the lefty students haveing booze parties with cuddles galore plastered all over Facebook.

Tens of thousands arriving every day? Lol.

 

AFAIK checks have been implemented.

 

And no, not lefty students, more the right wing ones.

6 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Tens of thousands arriving every day? Lol.

 

AFAIK checks have been implemented.

 

And no, not lefty students, more the right wing ones.

Checks implented only this week....15,000 daily at Heathrow alone....definitely lefties...their Facebook pages are open

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

Technically speaking, Reuters is correct.

 

However as far as I can see the UK has signed out of the EU and unless things change drastically, the UK will leave the EU on 31st December 2020.

 

The UK will revert to a sovereign state with its own laws, rules and regulations and will no longer be subject to the EU rules and regulations.

One of us is misreading this....the UK may be leaving the EU, it will remain as part of Europe.

 

The bigger - and much more important error is that UK recorded covid deaths at 20,000+ are ONLY those who die in hospital.  All those in Care Homes and the wdier community are not (yet) included.

 

PH

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

Technically speaking, Reuters is correct.

 

However as far as I can see the UK has signed out of the EU and unless things change drastically, the UK will leave the EU on 31st December 2020.

 

The UK will revert to a sovereign state with its own laws, rules and regulations and will no longer be subject to the EU rules and regulations.

Can you explain what Brexit has to do with it? Absolutely nothing, is my humble opinion.......

 

8 minutes ago, Phulublub said:

One of us is misreading this....the UK may be leaving the EU, it will remain as part of Europe.

 

The bigger - and much more important error is that UK recorded covid deaths at 20,000+ are ONLY those who die in hospital.  All those in Care Homes and the wdier community are not (yet) included.

 

PH

This is not correct the article clearly states the care homes etc are included

 

" including a fast-rising toll in care homes"

 

23 minutes ago, baansgr said:

Checks implented only this week....15,000 daily at Heathrow alone....definitely lefties...their Facebook pages are open

Not true. Government estimated 15000 arriving nationwide, looking at sources online less than 10000 nationwide seems more accurate.

 

Still more than I thought, but far from tens of thousands as you claimed.

6 minutes ago, CharlieH said:

This is not correct the article clearly states the care homes etc are included

 

" including a fast-rising toll in care homes"

 

True, but take into account that the numbers are as of April 17. In the UK numbers have increased in the mean time, in France, Italy and Spain decreased.

27 minutes ago, stevenl said:

True, but take into account that the numbers are as of April 17. In the UK numbers have increased in the mean time

yes France dumping their migrant camps across the channel by the hundreds - the UK will be shipping them right back

11 minutes ago, smedly said:

yes France dumping their migrant camps across the channel by the hundreds - the UK will be shipping them right back

So you're saying it is the immigrants. Strange coming from someone who objects when in Thailand  an infection is traced to a farang.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/28/uk-coronavirus-live-news-minutes-silence-to-commemorate-key-workers-who-have-died

 

The official figures verified Financial Times modelling that suggested 41,000 people had died by last Tuesday either directly or indirectly as a result of coronavirus, with the death registrations higher than expected by the FT’s model.

With almost 30,000 excess deaths by mid-April across the UK, approximately two weeks ago, the number of total deaths now is likely to be in excess of 45,000, according to the FT model.

 

Cant really add anything to that.

8 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/28/uk-coronavirus-live-news-minutes-silence-to-commemorate-key-workers-who-have-died

 

The official figures verified Financial Times modelling that suggested 41,000 people had died by last Tuesday either directly or indirectly as a result of coronavirus, with the death registrations higher than expected by the FT’s model.

With almost 30,000 excess deaths by mid-April across the UK, approximately two weeks ago, the number of total deaths now is likely to be in excess of 45,000, according to the FT model.

 

Cant really add anything to that.

I don't understand why some people (yourself included) seem to spend all their time and energy trying to pin the blame for this unprecedented tragedy on the UK government. 

 

What would a Corbyn led government have done differently, bearing in mind they would be following the same guidance from the same UK medical experts? 

 

What would a Scottish government led by Nicola Sturgeon have done differently? Oh, hang on, there IS a Scottish government led by Nicola Sturgeon, and she's stayed pretty much in line with the UK government, as have the other devolved governments of the UK. 

 

But this is just a Boris bashing extravaganza for you and your brethren isn't it ???? 

Maths gone a bit awry.

 

21384 is not 35% higher than 13917, it is 53% higher i.e. 13917 x 1.53 = 21384

 

13917 is 65% of 21384 so  the lower figure is 35% lower than the higher, but the reverse is not true (although it does make it sound better).

 

10 hours ago, baansgr said:

all the lefty students haveing booze parties with cuddles galore plastered all over Facebook.

Are “righty” students immune against the virus or do they just not party? Or do “righties” just not attend universities? 

8 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

I don't understand why some people (yourself included) seem to spend all their time and energy trying to pin the blame for this unprecedented tragedy on the UK government. 

 

What would a Corbyn led government have done differently, bearing in mind they would be following the same guidance from the same UK medical experts? 

 

What would a Scottish government led by Nicola Sturgeon have done differently? Oh, hang on, there IS a Scottish government led by Nicola Sturgeon, and she's stayed pretty much in line with the UK government, as have the other devolved governments of the UK. 

 

But this is just a Boris bashing extravaganza for you and your brethren isn't it ???? 

This is somewhat off topic is it not?

But you must let us all share your crystal ball as to what Corbyn would or would not have done.

Nicola Sturgeon has, where possible, done what she can to protect Scotland from Johnsons ineptitude. She brought in school closures which forced Johnson to do the same. The Scottish government has produced a roadmap to lifting the lockdown which Johnson has failed to do. She has stated the lockdown in Scotland will not follow that of Englands if it does not suit Scotland. She has recommended facemasks to be worn in public areas. Scottish daily deaths by corona figures include carehome deaths. These are just the ones I can remember off the top of my head.

I might also add that every time she has deviated in even the slightest way from the course Johnson has taken she is subjected to huge criticism and outrage from unionists north and south of the border.

 

So criticism of Johnsons handling of a crisis is now dismissed as "Boris bashing"? How about you open your eyes and actually admit he is and always has been out of his depth.

You can't beat a virus by wrapping yourself in a union flag and chanting slogans. Which is Johnsons limit.  

 

8 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

 

What would a Corbyn led government have done differently, bearing in mind they would be following the same guidance from the same UK medical experts? 

Even if you knew what a Corbyn government would have done...

— How would that have changed the current government’s action? 

 

13 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

 

Are “righty” students immune against the virus or do they just not party? Or do “righties” just not attend universities? 

He actually might have a point. When I was at uni the kids who identified as conservatives had no social life and never managed get laid given their stellar personalities.
 

Social isolation is a perpetual feature of their lives. Covid or no covid.

 

UK has been practising herd immunity by stealth

 

They were extremely vague about key workers and kept flights open on purpose

Feel the pain now but come out quicker on the other side........hopefully 

9 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

I don't understand why some people (yourself included) seem to spend all their time and energy trying to pin the blame for this unprecedented tragedy on the UK government. 

 

What would a Corbyn led government have done differently, bearing in mind they would be following the same guidance from the same UK medical experts? 

 

What would a Scottish government led by Nicola Sturgeon have done differently? Oh, hang on, there IS a Scottish government led by Nicola Sturgeon, and she's stayed pretty much in line with the UK government, as have the other devolved governments of the UK. 

 

But this is just a Boris bashing extravaganza for you and your brethren isn't it ???? 

The rabid left just can't help themselves 

11 hours ago, baansgr said:

Probably more to do with no inbound flight restrictions and tens of thousands of people from anywhere in the world arriving everyday without so much as a temperature check...UK has always like importing goods but that's taking it too far....not to mention all the lefty students haveing booze parties with cuddles galore plastered all over Facebook.

Well of course, immigrants and ‘lefty students’, where would you go for an argument without them?

55 minutes ago, samran said:

He actually might have a point. When I was at uni the kids who identified as conservatives had no social life and never managed get laid given their stellar personalities.
 

Social isolation is a perpetual feature of their lives. Covid or no covid.

The best post I’ve read in a long time, and so true.

9 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

I don't understand why some people (yourself included) seem to spend all their time and energy trying to pin the blame for this unprecedented tragedy on the UK government. 

 

What would a Corbyn led government have done differently, bearing in mind they would be following the same guidance from the same UK medical experts? 

 

What would a Scottish government led by Nicola Sturgeon have done differently? Oh, hang on, there IS a Scottish government led by Nicola Sturgeon, and she's stayed pretty much in line with the UK government, as have the other devolved governments of the UK. 

 

But this is just a Boris bashing extravaganza for you and your brethren isn't it ???? 

The Government is responsible for its own actions and/or inaction and, in a democracy, accountable for the outcome of its own actions and/or inaction.

 

In this case the Government is rightly being held accountable for the ongoing tragedy that is a direct result of the Government’s own response to this Pandemic.

 

 

It wasn't Boris Johnson, it was the experts in the UK that caused the UK to have 70% more deaths than Germany. Special mention has to be made of Neil Ferguson who it has now been reported previously produced modelling in 2001 that was not "fit for purpose"

 

"Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University said Prof Ferguson was previously instrumental in modelling that led to the cull of more than 6 million animals during the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, which left rural Britain economically devastated. Then, Prof Ferguson and his Imperial colleagues concluded: 'Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic.' But Prof Thrusfield, an expert in animal diseases, claimed the model made incorrect assumptions about how foot and mouth disease was transmitted and, in a 2006 review, he claimed Imperial's foot and mouth model was 'not fit for purpose', while in 2011 he said it was 'severely flawed'. Prof Thrusfield told The Daily Telegraph the episode was 'a cautionary tale' about the limits of mathematical modelling and he felt a sense of 'déjà vu' about the current situation.2

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8258043/Professor-Neil-Ferguson-warns-100-000-UK-coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-lifted-soon.html

 

It was Neil Ferguson who reportedly admitted he did not including testing in his modelling simply because PHE told him they had no tests. The experts should have been aware there were UK biotech companies making tests and turned to them to mass produce the test kits, like Germany and South Korea did. They should have made sure PHE tests South Korea's test kits quicker so the deal Hancock wanted to make would have gone through to buy SK test kits.

 

The UK's experts have performed very poorly and Boris Johnson abdicated his responsibility to them largely.

1 hour ago, samran said:

He actually might have a point. When I was at uni the kids who identified as conservatives had no social life and never managed get laid given their stellar personalities.
 

Social isolation is a perpetual feature of their lives. Covid or no covid.

Strange, I saw the opposite, with nearly all student societies being conservative.

1 hour ago, Canuck1966 said:

 

UK has been practising herd immunity by stealth

 

They were extremely vague about key workers and kept flights open on purpose

Feel the pain now but come out quicker on the other side........hopefully 

That's a big admission.

11 hours ago, CharlieH said:

This is not correct the article clearly states the care homes etc are included

 

" including a fast-rising toll in care homes"

 

Be careful, the more precise statement from the OP is this:

 

“According to figures released by the health ministry on Monday, 21,092 people had died in hospitals across the United Kingdom after testing positive for COVID-19.”

 

The headline paragraph from which your quote comes is:

 

“Britain is on track to become one of Europe’s worst-hit countries in the coronavirus pandemic, according to data on Tuesday that showed deaths from COVID-19 had already topped 20,000 by April 17, including a fast-rising toll in care homes.”

 

Well yes the 21,092 death toll in hospitals is already past 20,000, certainly so when the 7,316* people who died in care homes are added to the total.

 

To my mind the significance of the 7,316 deaths in care homes is not simply the failure to include these deaths in the reported totals but the fact 7,316 people died in care homes, mostly staffed with untrained or semi trained staff, without the comfort of medical palliative care. 

 

* From the OP: “The ONS said that overall 7,316 people had died in care homes overall during the 16th week of 2020, almost treble the number reported in the 13th week.”