Is it just wishful thinking or deluding themselves

[Leaver]

On 5/16/2020 at 11:12 PM, jacko45k said:

In Pattaya, if bars were open, I would expect the Expats to be in the cheap Buakhao places, and a few western owned bars. Be lucky if they could supply enough business for 5-10% of them. 

I agree. So the rest close their doors. No point opening, even though you are allowed to, and no point paying rent on a business that is not trading. 

[jacko45k]

4 minutes ago, Leaver said:

I agree. So the rest close their doors. No point opening, even though you are allowed to, and no point paying rent on a business that is not trading. 

No rent paying is a step further than not opening too!

[Leaver]

15 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

No rent paying is a step further than not opening too!

I said some time ago, it will be interesting to see what Thai landlords are going to do. 

 

Do they allow a lease to fail, with no chance of finding another tenant any time soon, or enter into rent reduction / suspension negotiations, to keep a tenant in place.  

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Leaver

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, Leaver said:

I said some time ago, it will be interesting to see what Thai landlords are going to do. 

 

Do they allow a lease to fail, which no chance of finding another tenant any time soon, or enter into rent reduction / suspension negotiations, to keep a tenant in place.  

I have heard of 1 bar owner who says his landlord has been very good, both reducing rent and allowing suspension of payment. I wonder what percentage will feel that way, particularly towards a foreigner he perceives as being wealthy? Can't say I have heard much, other than odd trucks emptying out some businesses.

[Leaver]

41 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

I have heard of 1 bar owner who says his landlord has been very good, both reducing rent and allowing suspension of payment. I wonder what percentage will feel that way, particularly towards a foreigner he perceives as being wealthy? Can't say I have heard much, other than odd trucks emptying out some businesses.

I posted about one small bar owner that didn't think much of his Thai landlord, but was lucky his lease was ending later this year, so he walked away, rather than pay his Thai landlord 1 baht more rent. 

 

He obviously couldn't see any reason to buy a new 2 year lease, and operate at a loss for at least the next 18 months, while his Thai landlord was unscathed.  So, he walked, and left it to his landlord. 

 

I haven't seen him around since that day, but I doubt his phone rang with an offer from the Thai landlord after he gave notice. 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/9/2020 at 4:46 PM, jacko45k said:

How about the owner or big fat cashier coming over and asking on behalf of the one sat adjacent? I mean, I get asked to buy drinks so often I wonder if we talk of the same town!

Perhaps they are so desperate now that they have to do the hard sell. If I didn't ask a girl to sit with me I didn't buy anyone a drink, and was usually not hassled either, other than being asked where I came from, where I was staying, and how long was I staying in Pattaya- the usual questions to find out if I was a rich sucker ATM.

 

Back in the day the only place ( in my extensive experience ) where one got the hard word to buy drinks without being invited to sit was in the upstairs bars on Patpong.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/20/2020 at 5:27 PM, Leaver said:

I said some time ago, it will be interesting to see what Thai landlords are going to do. 

 

Do they allow a lease to fail, with no chance of finding another tenant any time soon, or enter into rent reduction / suspension negotiations, to keep a tenant in place.  

 

I'm sure landlords have tea money to pay depending on how well the bars they lease are doing. If the bar is still open they'd still be expected to pay, but if the bar is closed I doubt even the usual suspects will be demanding it.

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Back in the day the only place ( in my extensive experience ) where one got the hard word to buy drinks without being invited to sit was in the upstairs bars on Patpong.

Back in my early days we already knew not to go there!

[Leaver]

On 5/26/2020 at 10:22 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

I'm sure landlords have tea money to pay depending on how well the bars they lease are doing. If the bar is still open they'd still be expected to pay, but if the bar is closed I doubt even the usual suspects will be demanding it.

The monthly amount of tea money will take a big hit here.  I am sure the BiB will come up with other extortion methods to make up for the decline in tea money.  As usual, farang will be targeted.   

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/27/2020 at 12:01 PM, jacko45k said:

Back in my early days we already knew not to go there!

The problem upstairs was that one ended up with a huge bill for lady drinks and threatened with bodily harm if didn't pay.

I only bought one drink and no lady drinks= no problems. I also didn't have one sit with me.

Hollywood Royale in Nana had better shows and no ripoffs.

[Wongkitlo]

I don't go bars much except Coconut Bar but would love to go and sit in a bar now and watch the world. My friend in Australia wants to open a bar in Pattaya. He is quite wealthy and wouldn't care much if he lost a little money. He just wants to be able to tell his wife he has to go to Thailand on business. I am sure there are lots of bars which wealthy expats own and just have to show off to their friends or to keep their TGF happy. I'm sure needing to pay rent and wages for a little while wouldn't bother them. It is lucky it is low season anyway. My business (not in Pattaya) shuts every year from April till October so has not affected us much except losing the last half of March trade which is usually a quiet month anyway. As someone posted earlier many others are probably used for money laundering so they won't be affected. 

[Leaver]

8 hours ago, Wongkitlo said:

I don't go bars much except Coconut Bar but would love to go and sit in a bar now and watch the world. My friend in Australia wants to open a bar in Pattaya. He is quite wealthy and wouldn't care much if he lost a little money. He just wants to be able to tell his wife he has to go to Thailand on business. I am sure there are lots of bars which wealthy expats own and just have to show off to their friends or to keep their TGF happy. I'm sure needing to pay rent and wages for a little while wouldn't bother them. It is lucky it is low season anyway. My business (not in Pattaya) shuts every year from April till October so has not affected us much except losing the last half of March trade which is usually a quiet month anyway. As someone posted earlier many others are probably used for money laundering so they won't be affected. 

So, if they are for a hobby, or for money laundering, why do so many close?  I'm guessing there's quite a few that actually think they can make some profit from the bar.

[Kennycrossfit]

On 5/16/2020 at 1:54 PM, Heppinger said:

Don't forget the Russian pioneers forging a new fashion trend using the brightest, high visibility fluorescent combination of as many colors as possible thrown together in a technocolor mish mash of psychedelic vomit.

Better than the usual dress sense of a few expats around Pattaya. 

[Wongkitlo]

28 minutes ago, Leaver said:

So, if they are for a hobby, or for money laundering, why do so many close?  I'm guessing there's quite a few that actually think they can make some profit from the bar.

Yes I'm sure some will close but I don't think it will all be finished as some people think. 

[Leaver]

14 minutes ago, Wongkitlo said:

Yes I'm sure some will close but I don't think it will all be finished as some people think. 

I've never suggested all will be finished, but obviously a percentage will be.  What percentage would you say will open, and remain open, to those that will not?

[Wongkitlo]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

I've never suggested all will be finished, but obviously a percentage will be.  What percentage would you say will open, and remain open, to those that will not?

Don't know enough about bars. I did say I usually only frequent the Coconut Bar. I live far enough out of town and do not drive so am usually home by the time they open. I will have a quiet drink some afternoons. I think until we know about countries  reopening or if there is a second wave it is hard to say. My place is on a small tourist island and as things were getting bad with the virus in March I was amazed how many tourists were still arriving. I think tourists won't care about the virus especially if Thailand keeps it's low figures.I think if  the governments let them people will still come. Maybe things will just go back to normal in a few months. I know you think it will be longer but I think the affect on the economy will make the government open up sooner.

[Tie Dye Samurai]

15 hours ago, Wongkitlo said:

My place is on a small tourist island and as things were getting bad with the virus in March I was amazed how many tourists were still arriving. I think tourists won't care about the virus especially if Thailand keeps it's low figures.I think if  the governments let them people will still come. Maybe things will just go back to normal in a few months. I know you think it will be longer but I think the affect on the economy will make the government open up sooner.

I have said this before under other topics...what tourists are going to come back? With what money, from what job and what holiday time? There is no going back to normal as far as people flooding into Thailand anytime in the near or distant future....the rich or the set up with a pension or steady passive income can make it here but how much of the tourist industry actually fall into that category and how many of them actually end up in Pattaya\Jomtien? The reason you are a 2 week millionaire in Pattaya is because the other 50 weeks a year you are grinding away to acquire your "Millions" when you end up in Thailand...and millions and millions of people around the world do not have the job they had 4 months ago. Not to mention alot of the business model for these bars flies directly in the face of the whole social distancing thing...not here to debate the validity of that, just bringing it up as a factor that needs to be acknowledged. Whether you agree with it or not, it should be taken into consideration because for every couple of people that do not care about the virus, there is somebody that does and will be hesitant to go into the bars and that means the potential number of possible customers goes down from an already seriously depleted customer base.

[Wongkitlo]

4 hours ago, Tie Dye Samurai said:

I have said this before under other topics...what tourists are going to come back? With what money, from what job and what holiday time? There is no going back to normal as far as people flooding into Thailand anytime in the near or distant future....the rich or the set up with a pension or steady passive income can make it here but how much of the tourist industry actually fall into that category and how many of them actually end up in Pattaya\Jomtien? The reason you are a 2 week millionaire in Pattaya is because the other 50 weeks a year you are grinding away to acquire your "Millions" when you end up in Thailand...and millions and millions of people around the world do not have the job they had 4 months ago. Not to mention alot of the business model for these bars flies directly in the face of the whole social distancing thing...not here to debate the validity of that, just bringing it up as a factor that needs to be acknowledged. Whether you agree with it or not, it should be taken into consideration because for every couple of people that do not care about the virus, there is somebody that does and will be hesitant to go into the bars and that means the potential number of possible customers goes down from an already seriously depleted customer base.

I had posted that a lot of bars are either hobby bars or fronts for money laundering and these will survive. Leaver asked what percentage I thought and I said I didn't know but my experience with my customers was they didn't care much about the virus. I do think there will be change but don't believe people won't go on holiday. Many I know in Australia are still working or are getting government support. They aren't really spending money because they can't go out.  I think many of my clientele will still come. I supply budget accommodation and many work in IT, are retired or are long term backpackers. I don't think they will be affected. Even in Pattaya I'm sure single guys wanting a bit of excitement in their lives will still come on holidays. There are always credit cards.

[madmen]

On 5/8/2020 at 10:03 AM, BritManToo said:

That's certainly the case in Vietnam and Cambodia where beer is sold at 50c-$1 a small bottle in many bars & restaurants.

One expat bar in Da Nang I frequented sold beer at $1/bottle normal price and buy one, get one free early evenings. They were still making a profit on the BOGOF offer.

I've never seen a poster  with such a horn for Vietnam and Cambodia. Who cares its a pointless comparison

[jacko45k]

10 hours ago, madmen said:

I've never seen a poster  with such a horn for Vietnam and Cambodia. Who cares its a pointless comparison

I cannot speak for Vietnam but do not know what in Cambodia attracts people. PP is a dump, Snooky ruined, what is there now? 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/31/2020 at 2:53 AM, Leaver said:

I've never suggested all will be finished, but obviously a percentage will be.  What percentage would you say will open, and remain open, to those that will not?

The ones that will stay open are those that were successful before Corona. Not many of those, but one always knew which they were because they had loads of customers and the others had hardly any.

[Leaver]

On 5/30/2020 at 4:21 PM, Wongkitlo said:

Don't know enough about bars. I did say I usually only frequent the Coconut Bar. I live far enough out of town and do not drive so am usually home by the time they open. I will have a quiet drink some afternoons. I think until we know about countries  reopening or if there is a second wave it is hard to say. My place is on a small tourist island and as things were getting bad with the virus in March I was amazed how many tourists were still arriving. I think tourists won't care about the virus especially if Thailand keeps it's low figures.I think if  the governments let them people will still come. Maybe things will just go back to normal in a few months. I know you think it will be longer but I think the affect on the economy will make the government open up sooner.

It not just bars, but restaurants as well.  You can extend that to basically any business supplying a product, service, or entertainment, that is consumed by western tourists. Eg. massage shops.

 

There seems to be the idea among some members that once the order is given for everything to open up here, the financial hardship felt by businesses, and individuals, will cease, overnight.  As I have said before, everything can open up here tomorrow, there will still be no tourists here for months.  The expat population is simply no big enough to support all the businesses catering for westerners here. 

 

The problem facing the Thai tourism industry, and those it employs, either directly, or indirectly, goes way beyond any decision the Thai government makes.  The Thai tourism industry is dependent on the decisions of foreign governments as well, and also on airlines.  

 

There are many hurdles facing the Thai tourism industry, many of which are also out of their control.  It is at a stage where it doesn't matter what the Thai government does, tourists simply can't get here, and will not be able to do so for the foreseeable future, and not just due to transport, but for reasons such as forced quarantining, affordability,  travel insurance issues etc.

[BritManToo]

6 minutes ago, Leaver said:

As I have said before, everything can open up here tomorrow, there will still be no tourists here for months.

14 days quarantine = no tourists.

Interesting to see if the government is capable of working that one out.

[BritManToo]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The ones that will stay open are those that were successful before Corona. Not many of those, but one always knew which they were because they had loads of customers and the others had hardly any.

I'm not sure how long any business, no matter how successful previously, can stay open without customers.

Every outgoing is a loss that will never be recovered.

Edited June 2, 2020 by BritManToo

[Leaver]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The ones that will stay open are those that were successful before Corona. Not many of those, but one always knew which they were because they had loads of customers and the others had hardly any.

The ones that were successful also have higher expenses, particularly rent.  There will be no tourists of any substantial numbers here for months, possibly 12 to 18 months. Would you work for 12 months to make a loss every month?  How many of these businesses will use their savings to operate at a loss for 12 months, and why should they?

 

Also, the time left on their leases will effect their decision.  What's the point at operating at a loss if you have to pay to renew your lease 12 or 18 months or 2 years from now?  That's more loss, on top of consistent monthly losses. The hole just gets deeper, and there is no newbie dreamer to dump it onto this time.  

 

There is a point where each business will know that without customers, or even minimal customers, for every month they operate at a loss, the money can not be recouped, thus making the losses compound to a point that even with many successful and profitable months, they are still behind.  

[Leaver]

37 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

14 days quarantine = no tourists.

Interesting to see if the government is capable of working that one out.

Which government?

 

The Thai government can allow tourists to come to Thailand with no force quarantine, but what about if the tourists' own government requires all returning citizens and permanent residents to undergo forced quarantine, possabily at their own expense?  That equals no tourists also, and there is nothing the Thai government can do about it.  

[scubascuba3]

43 minutes ago, Leaver said:

The ones that were successful also have higher expenses, particularly rent.  There will be no tourists of any substantial numbers here for months, possibly 12 to 18 months. Would you work for 12 months to make a loss every month?  How many of these businesses will use their savings to operate at a loss for 12 months, and why should they?

 

Also, the time left on their leases will effect their decision.  What's the point at operating at a loss if you have to pay to renew your lease 12 or 18 months or 2 years from now?  That's more loss, on top of consistent monthly losses. The hole just gets deeper, and there is no newbie dreamer to dump it onto this time.  

 

There is a point where each business will know that without customers, or even minimal customers, for every month they operate at a loss, the money can not be recouped, thus making the losses compound to a point that even with many successful and profitable months, they are still behind.  

Many aren't throwing in the towel because they think they can sell for 1M baht eventually, that seems to be the magic number for everything

[Leaver]

8 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Many aren't throwing in the towel because they think they can sell for 1M baht eventually, that seems to be the magic number for everything

Sell it to who?

 

Seems like throwing good money after bad.  How many months do you operate at a loss, before you overtake your asking price for the sale, and you still haven't found a buyer?  

 

I see the point you are making.  That is why I have said, some businesses may remain, but just not open, until it profitable to do so.  They would be taking a loss on rent, but that's about all.   They would be minimizing their expenses by not opening, to try to stay in the game.  This business practice would only suit a few of the larger establishments that really do cater for tourists.      

[Leaver]

On 6/2/2020 at 6:40 AM, BritManToo said:

I'm not sure how long any business, no matter how successful previously, can stay open without customers.

Every outgoing is a loss that will never be recovered.

This is why it will be interesting to see what Thai landlords do, in the longer term. 

 

If they reduce rent, many may keep a tenant in place, but if they do not offer a rent reduction, a large percentage of owners will be walking away. 

 

In the past, this was no problem for a Thai landlord, in fact, many were happy, as they got to sell a new lease and pocket more key money. 

 

This time it's different.  There will not be buyers in the market for new leases like there has been in the past.  I suspect that there may be some relocating of existing businesses, which casts further interest over what Thai landlords will do, but if a Thai landlord was to refuse to negotiate a reduction, thus losing their tenant, they may be waiting a long time for another tenant to come along.

[Leaver]

On 5/31/2020 at 11:59 PM, jacko45k said:

PP is a dump, Snooky ruined, what is there now? 

1 years visas for $300USD.  ????