“Successful” Thailand hangs its fate on vaccine quest

[Letseng]

24 minutes ago, JAG said:

Opinions in this forum vary across a broad range, from those expecting (relishing even) successive waves, with massive death tolls globally. possibly ending life as we know it; to the "grow up and put your long trousers on, it's only a nasty bout of flu" brigade! Both sides seem to have marshalled statistics and collected expert opinions to support their hypothesis - perhaps a result of having too much time on their hands during "lock-down" and the astonishing amount of contradictory opinion on the internet. I am somewhere in between, aware of the deaths, but conscious of the fact that in societies where more exhaustive records have been kept many were elderly, with other health problems - put callously, they were likely to die from many causes soon anyway!

 

I am also like many struck by the disparity between the effects of the virus in South East Asia and Western Europe, and even more so the USA. I am sure that geographical factors (climate, social habits, open air living, diet, comparative lack of access to air conditioning [in my mind perhaps the biggie] and general genetic and population wide immunities) play a very wide part in this. I am sure that social distancing, personal protective habits and school closures have played a part as well - I teach primary and junior secondary so I know what a disease incubator a classroom can be.

 

There are so many variables in play here, that I expect it will take a long time before any definite answers emerge, perhaps never as they will inevitably be viewed through various political prisms. But as I said, I tend to the middle view, and have some confidence in humankind and natures ability to come through it; perhaps despite our political establishment's best efforts.

 

I am also concerned, like many, that over authoritarian responses could lead to massive damage - greater than maybe the effects of the epidemic - on our societies. Again, I am sure that I am not alone in questioning some of the motivations of those in power.

 

Everybody focuses on Italy, UK and the other high number death countries. There are many countries in Europe with low infection/death nos. These countries locked down and closed borders early instead of letting everybody in. 

Warmer Climate doesn't make much difference when you look at Singapore, Indonesia e.g. Aircon would be counter productive unless you put in special filters. Open windows does help.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Letseng

[GAZZPA]

Whats all this talk about "what if no vaccine?" i thought Thailand just issued a blue paper instructing the scientists to have a vaccine in 3 months.. ????

[Brunolem]

12 minutes ago, Letseng said:

 

Warmer Climate doesn't make much difference when you look at Singapore, Indonesia e.g. Aircon would be counter productive unless you put in special filters. Open windows does help.

Singapore and Indonesia's numbers are nowhere near those of Western Europe.

 

Singapore has less than 20 deaths, and Indonesia a few hundreds...far below the 25,000 to 30,000 seen in the West...

 

[3NUMBAS]

theyll get the nobel  prize  so bring it on 

[GAZZPA]

15 minutes ago, Letseng said:

Everybody focuses on Italy, UK and the other high number death countries. There are many countries in Europe with low infection/death nos. These countries locked down and closed borders early instead of letting everybody in. 

Warmer Climate doesn't make much difference when you look at Singapore, Indonesia e.g. Aircon would be counter productive unless you put in special filters. Open windows does help.

Indonesia has had very few cases in comparison, same as Singapore. It absolutely does make a difference on climate, it has been scientifically accepted now that although warm, humid climates do not kill the virus it does slow it's progress. Also the virus is not airborne so no idea why you think aircon makes a difference. 

 

it's ok to sit on the fence a bit, I guess nobody will know until the passing of time. I personally can see us all treading a horrible line on trying to get the economies going again and practicing social distancing until a vaccine is available. I have faith that there will be one soon, Oxford are progressing well and well into human trials now and I am sure there are others throughout the world. 

 

whatever happens, stay safe and take care of others.. Maybe we will all remember what that actually means for a change.. 

[GAZZPA]

23 minutes ago, Letseng said:

Everybody focuses on Italy, UK and the other high number death countries. There are many countries in Europe with low infection/death nos. These countries locked down and closed borders early instead of letting everybody in. 

Warmer Climate doesn't make much difference when you look at Singapore, Indonesia e.g. Aircon would be counter productive unless you put in special filters. Open windows does help.

which European countries locked down early and have few cases?

[3NUMBAS]

5 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

which European countries locked down early and have few cases?

they were all caught flatfooted as no experince to feed off so playing catchup

[RedPill]

59 minutes ago, JAG said:

Opinions in this forum vary across a broad range, from those expecting (relishing even) successive waves, with massive death tolls globally. possibly ending life as we know it; to the "grow up and put your long trousers on, it's only a nasty bout of flu" brigade! Both sides seem to have marshalled statistics and collected expert opinions to support their hypothesis - perhaps a result of having too much time on their hands during "lock-down" and the astonishing amount of contradictory opinion on the internet. I am somewhere in between, aware of the deaths, but conscious of the fact that in societies where more exhaustive records have been kept many were elderly, with other health problems - put callously, they were likely to die from many causes soon anyway!

 

I am also like many struck by the disparity between the effects of the virus in South East Asia and Western Europe, and even more so the USA. I am sure that geographical factors (climate, social habits, open air living, diet, comparative lack of access to air conditioning [in my mind perhaps the biggie] and general genetic and population wide immunities) play a very wide part in this. I am sure that social distancing, personal protective habits and school closures have played a part as well - I teach primary and junior secondary so I know what a disease incubator a classroom can be.

 

There are so many variables in play here, that I expect it will take a long time before any definite answers emerge, perhaps never as they will inevitably be viewed through various political prisms. But as I said, I tend to the middle view, and have some confidence in humankind and natures ability to come through it; perhaps despite our political establishment's best efforts.

 

I am also concerned, like many, that over authoritarian responses could lead to massive damage - greater than maybe the effects of the epidemic - on our societies. Again, I am sure that I am not alone in questioning some of the motivations of those in power.

 

I agree with your point of view overall ... no need to pick parts out and start discussions, at least not for me.

 

After sitting here for so many weeks, watching this all ... no one, not a single person knows the who's and why's, certainly not the governments.

 

But the dramatic news pieces from EUR/UK/US to follow for everyone ... certainly has weighted in big time for the irrational behavior of other countries, ie. countries which have only counted 56 dead ppl so far, and not seen any real outbreak.

 

I will sit back and continue watching, but I'm getting more critical about this, as time goes by.

 

 

[GroveHillWanderer]

8 hours ago, Brunolem said:

First, you may have noticed that these viruses disappear as quickly as they appear (it's a bit different for Ebola, but it is not a coronavirus).

 

SARS 1 is not there anymore, and neither is MERS, but somehow the actual SARS 2 is expected to remain with us forever...go wonder why...

 

There is a good reason why there is no vaccine against coronaviruses.

 

It is very technical and beyond my knowledge, but from what I grasped it has to do with a very specific area of the body where the virus is active, and until now impossible to efficiently reach with a vaccine.

As you mention, Ebola is not a coronavirus (it's a filovirus) but contrary to the claim by the person you were responding to, there is a vaccine for Ebola.

 

It's true that SARS-CoV-1 disappeared - but MERS did not. Apart from the first year it appeared, when it killed a larger number of people, it has continued to kill about the same number of people every year since. There may not be a licensed vaccine for MERS yet but there is a candidate vaccine undergoing phase 1 human trials in Saudi Arabia at the moment. In case you're interested, it's from the same Oxford Vaccine group that currently has the most advanced timetable of anyone, for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. In fact, one of the reasons they were able to progress as quickly as they have, is because they were able to quickly adapt their MERS vaccine delivery platform to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

 

The success of this MERS vaccine in all the pre-clinical and animal studies, and the data from the phase 1 human trial so far, suggests that a vaccine for a coronavirus of this type is eminently achievable.

 

[Mulambana]

I also find another interesting case with Thailand is active cases. Thailand's resolved case rate (death+disccharged)/total cases is almost 99% and it is number one except few smaller islands. The world average is around 40%, US is 22%, UK is 29%, Australia is 89%. I think Australia is doing very good and it is under control and their resolves case rte is also very high unlike Europe and US.

[SiSePuede419]

On 5/8/2020 at 4:28 AM, snoop1130 said:

What if no vaccine is available in the next two years?

Count on it.

 

90+% of vaccines fail to work properly.

 

Some antibodies can actually be HARMFUL and can make the virus worse.

 

That's why vaccines need to be tested on tens of thousands of people to determine if they work properly.

 

Plus, the other 4 Coronaviruses 90% of people have been exposed to?  They're called the "common cold".

 

NO VACCINE WORKS FOR THE COMMON COLD VIRUS. ????

[GroveHillWanderer]

23 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

 

Plus, the other 4 Coronaviruses 90% of people have been exposed to?  They're called the "common cold".

 

NO VACCINE WORKS FOR THE COMMON COLD VIRUS

I don't know if you've noticed, but the common cold produces only mild symptoms in just about every case and produces very little in the way of either morbidity or mortality. Given that even exposure to the whole, live virus produces only a mild response from the human immune system, that makes a vaccine, based on either a weakened, inactivated or partial virus even less likely to produce a sufficiently strong immune response to be effective.

 

There's also the fact that given the low level of risk from getting a cold, there really isn't any particularly urgent requirement for a cold vaccine anyway.

 

As mentioned above, the promising work on a MERS vaccine and the results of the animal trials so far for several of the SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines, gives real cause for optimism, at least in my opinion.

 

There were indeed a couple of SARS candidate vaccines that produced a dangerous enhanced immune response (one in mice, one in ferrets) but they were in the minority and the majority of SARS candidate vaccines did not have this problem.

Edited May 9, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[Brunolem]

56 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

 

As mentioned above, the promising work on a MERS vaccine and the results of the animal trials so far for several of the SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines, gives real cause for optimism, at least in my opinion.

 

 

One cannot say that there won't ever be a vaccine...but...

 

The most likely scenario is that it will arrive after the battle.

 

Now, if a vaccine like the one you mention proved to be efficient in the short term, one can wonder if it would make things better or worse.

 

Why?

 

Because, obviously, almost 8 billion doses would not be available right away.

 

It could take years to produce all the doses and to vaccine everybody.

 

In the meantime, the world would remain at a standstill, the thinking being "why take risks with lives now that there is a vaccine...let's just wait a little bit longer".

 

This in turn would amplify the economic collapse, probably to the point of complete destruction...

[Blumpie]

7 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

Yes, this is all a trick to keep people down, and Prayut is so smart he managed to get 185 other countries to go along with his scam. 

 

Do people even think before they post here?

It is true.  The astoundation (sic) of the situation is making learned people like meeself (sic) shocked beyond belief.  

By the way I"ve been a medical doctor for 82 years.  Stay back or I'll beat ya with my cane!  

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

One cannot say that there won't ever be a vaccine...but...

 

The most likely scenario is that it will arrive after the battle.

 

Now, if a vaccine like the one you mention proved to be efficient in the short term, one can wonder if it would make things better or worse.

 

Why?

 

Because, obviously, almost 8 billion doses would not be available right away.

 

It could take years to produce all the doses and to vaccine everybody.

 

In the meantime, the world would remain at a standstill, the thinking being "why take risks with lives now that there is a vaccine...let's just wait a little bit longer".

 

This in turn would amplify the economic collapse, probably to the point of complete destruction...

I'm not so sure. Countries are already starting to open up their economies, even without the prospect of a vaccine any time soon. If there were a vaccine, I think that if anything, it would give then the confidence to open up even more quickly.

 

We all know that 8 billion doses could not be available immediately, so I think it's already been acknowledged the available doses would need to be prioritised - going to the most at-risk groups first (like medical workers and the elderly, for example). Again, I don't see that this would mean any slowing of a return towards a more normal life.

 

I also think that (assuming a vaccine does get made) the doses might be available more quickly than you might think. For instance, the Oxford University Vaccine Group has already got commitments from two companies to produce 200 million doses of their vaccine by the end of this year (if it proves successful) and one of them, the Serum Institute of India says it could make another 400 million doses next year. That's with just two companies and the Oxford team have said they they hope to arrange partnerships with other companies as well. 

 

SII to make millions of doses of coronavirus vaccine

AstraZeneca to partner with Oxford University

 

And that's just for one vaccine. There are over a hundred different vaccine development teams working and if others prove viable and can ramp up production in a similar fashion, the number of doses could reach the billions quicker than many might have expected.

[JAG]

2 hours ago, brucec64 said:

Yes, this is all a trick to keep people down, and Prayut is so smart he managed to get 185 other countries to go along with his scam. 

 

Do people even think before they post here?

No one is suggesting that is the case.

 

Quite a lot of us wonder whether the regime is taking advantage of it.

[brucec64]

10 minutes ago, JAG said:

No one is suggesting that is the case.

 

Quite a lot of us wonder whether the regime is taking advantage of it.

In no way do I support this regime, but their response is really no more draconian than most Western countries, especially in Europe. Things will most likely be open within the next month, and then people will be complaining when they let the Chinese back in. I hope they follow the world and open things up domestically over the next couple of months before allowing international travel again.

[Brunolem]

6 hours ago, brucec64 said:

Things will most likely be open within the next month, and then people will be complaining when they let the Chinese back in. I hope they follow the world and open things up domestically over the next couple of months before allowing international travel again.

They will have no choice but to follow the world.

 

Once again, for each country there are 2 borders, its own and the one of its counterpart, say China for example.

 

It is not enough for Thailand to open its border to China, the latter has to do the same with Thailand, which is not the case now.

 

And this is not all.

 

The UK, for example, is going to impose a 14 day quarantine to all incoming passenger, British included.

 

This means, in practice, that no one is going to visit the UK, and no British is going to travel abroad.

 

If China does the same, the result will be the same...and many countries will probably impose similar restrictions...

[inxuinxu]

What do you mean with a beautiful woman?

And did Thaivisa ask any acceptance before publishing very clear picture of our daughter in Pattaya (working as a nurse).

 

[metisdead]

Posts and replies using trolling images and profane language have been removed. 

[chainarong]

The Olympic games committee can't see a vaccine by the start of the games in Japan next year 2021 , so as of yesterday, they may have to be cancelled, there's no vaccine for SARS either, Covid 19 is a little different and the next virus will be a beauty and you wont be as lucky as this time.

Edited May 10, 2020 by chainarong

[tomauasia]

20 hours ago, DrTuner said:

They are still living in pre-covid era. Even if there is a vaccine, the big wheel has turned. People had time to rethink while cooped up in their concrete boxes. Thailand must pivot away from tourism if they are to rebound.

You should see a doctor. Say no to tourism your crazy. Thailand needs to reopen end of month and get on with it. You no 0 about Thailand obviously 

[tomauasia]

20 hours ago, SupermarineS6B said:

The drug you spoke about is being used all over the place right now with great success, it's just being hampered by a little fellow and his mate trying to flog their own.......  

Who gives a toss. The gates must reopen and life must go on. It's only dumb and dirty people that will contract this virus. Block dumb China and start letting people in that have been coming for years with good records. These forums to much talk about what is. Fact is Thais are opening end of month. So will all need another topic to moan about 

 

 

[Brunolem]

2 minutes ago, tomauasia said:

Fact is Thais are opening end of month. 

 

I doubt that very much.

 

There will be a partial opening in June, that most probably will not include the borders, the bars, the discos and nightlife in general.

 

As for tourism, it takes two to tango.

 

It is not because Thailand will say "come we are open" that tourists will come.

 

See what is going on in the US, for example, where the reopened shopping centers remain empty of customers.

 

Obviously, if people are unwilling to visit shopping centers, how likely is it that they will hop on a plane and travel thousands of miles away...assuming that their own borders are open?

 

It is likely that tourism will resume slowly by year end, first with neighboring countries such as Malaysia...

[chrisinth]

You know, I wonder why people think that this corona virus is so different to any that have previously spread on a global scale in modern history and that an effective vaccine can be developed so quickly. 

 

Seventeen years after the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak and seven years since the first Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers) cases, there is still no coronavirus vaccine despite dozens of attempts to develop them.

 

And yet, the world goes on. When they come out with a vaccine that is completely effective against the common flu, then I will start paying attention.

[RedPill]

I wish at least on the vaccine topic, there would be a clear definition and unified answer from medicals all over the world.

 

Alas, this is another one of those gray areas where you read so many different opinions about.

 

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

On 5/8/2020 at 10:09 PM, Venom said:

Another 54 deaths in Thailand is very possible

the real number of deaths is at least 20 times higher.

no way in the world that in the second country in the world for the virus to be found

there will be so little cases. 

dangerous game is being played here...but so far it's working.

[lkv]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

See what is going on in the US, for example, where the reopened shopping centers remain empty of customers.

 

Obviously, if people are unwilling to visit shopping centers, how likely is it that they will hop on a plane and travel thousands of miles away...assuming that their own borders are open?

Give it a week and it will be full.

 

People in many countries already act as if nothing ever happened. Traffic is increasing, and paranoia is diminishing.

 

Many forget to even wear masks anymore here in Europe. Many Thais wear them, only because they are mandatory (or to save face), not because they have health concerns.

Edited May 10, 2020 by lkv

[tomauasia]

3 hours ago, Brunolem said:

I doubt that very much.

 

There will be a partial opening in June, that most probably will not include the borders, the bars, the discos and nightlife in general.

 

As for tourism, it takes two to tango.

 

It is not because Thailand will say "come we are open" that tourists will come.

 

See what is going on in the US, for example, where the reopened shopping centers remain empty of customers.

 

Obviously, if people are unwilling to visit shopping centers, how likely is it that they will hop on a plane and travel thousands of miles away...assuming that their own borders are open?

 

It is likely that tourism will resume slowly by year end, first with neighboring countries such as Malaysia...

End of month flights resume. A minister told me. You can doubt all you want 

[tomauasia]

1 hour ago, lkv said:

Give it a week and it will be full.

 

People in many countries alre3ady act as if nothing ever happened. Traffic is increasing, and paranoia is diminishing.

 

Many forget to even wear masks anymore here in Europe. Many Thais wear them, only because they are mandatory (or to save face), not because they have health concerns.

Yep it's over rated <deleted>