Thailand warned to brace for the second wave of COVID-19 infections

[19DL86]

20 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

I wouldn't pay too much attention to this color coding.

 

In Thailand, they have green, yellow, orange and red provinces, according to their covid 19 status...and yet they are all treated exactly the same: same curfew, same activities allowed to open, same everything...

 

Yeah same same traffic lights, just ignore them. ????????????

[Dumbastheycome]

8 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Wonder how many pnuemonia etc. deaths compared to last year. Has diabetes, has covid, died from diabetes. It's the died with and died from thing. Some countries are overstating some understating. My guess is Thailand has understated.

Two ways to view that. Person has controlled diabetes but complicated risk when infected  with C-19 and dies.

Which was the immediate cause of  death?

Or a terminally ill cancer patient cancer patient who succumbs quickly when C-19 infected. Cause of death  cancer or C-19?

I agree that there are different criteria applied in instances but I believe that in general terms Thailand's  numbers as reported are valid enough.

[Upnotover]

22 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

No, that's an R0 = 1 which is low.  The R0 of Covid-19 is believed to be between 2 and 5.  Measles has an R0 of 18.  An R0 = 1 would result in a steady state, neither increasing nor decreasing.  An R0 < 1 means the infection will disappear, while an R0 > 0 means everyone will eventually be infected unless there is some intervention to prevent that, such as widespread social distancing.

I think he was referring to the statement in the story that the infection rate would be squared, not doubled.  i.e. 100 becomes 10,000.

[DrTuner]

He's at the epicenter, Siriraj is one of the main hospitals that have testing facilities. What does he know?

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, Upnotover said:

You'd hardly notice a few hundred over the normal 1400/day, even in the UK with 10's of thousands there aren't bodies in the streets, no more than usual in any case. 

Do they burn them in UK? Burials are what cause queues, BBQ'ing is quick and far more efficient. So far the only place I've heard where crematoriums had trouble coping was in Wuhan. They have a high throughput.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Anton9 said:

Let's say you are right, but why would we care?Does it affect you personally if someone dies of Covid 19 or viral pneumonia?A death is still a death

That's why the only reliable indicator is comparing total number of deaths week-on-week to earlier years. Data not available for Thailand. Some other countries showed a marked increase, I can't find the article now but will dig.

 

The importance of that is to get an accurate picture of the current situation and that is needed for further planning. Same as random antibody tests, etc. Information for decision making.

[Anton9]

The second wave it's super scary considering the first one caused less deaths than your average day on the road.

[Enoon]

3 hours ago, JCP108 said:

Exactly right. Not everyone dies all at once and in the same place. Remember that 50k people die in Thailand every month. If there's a 10% bump, since hospitals weren't operating at capacity before the bump, it's business as usual, actually. No mounds of dead bodies. And, please stop with the Thai people would post it on social media stuff. The only Thai people who would know about that extra amount are those at the top with the aggregate reports. And, I assure you, they have no interest in sending us a post about that. 

 

An extra 10% of dead each month would mean an extra 25k dead this year. Don't have to hide it. Just, don't report it. 

 

I'm so glad that at least some people are taking the trouble to crunch the numbers and think it through using their intelligence, imagination and knowledge.

 

If Thailand had suffered the same number of COVID deaths as the UK, the number of COVID deaths in a Thai community of 5000 people would be, about,.......4.

 

 

 

[Bender Rodriguez]

there was no FIRST wave .... 57, are you kidding me ....

[frodo77]

Just more falsehood from a Cabal member to try and instill fear.

[Mr Meeseeks]

BRACE BRACE BRACE

 

And keep them nasty furriners away!

 

2 hours ago, PatOngo said:

How many smart ones will be trying to sell the Honda Wave to avoid infection?

It's already been repossessed by the loan shark...

[DrTuner]

46 minutes ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

there was no FIRST wave .... 57, are you kidding me ....

There might have been, in November-February. The D614 strain could have gone basically unnoticed.

 

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v2.full.pdf

 

If that happend, the infections that caused the current lockdowns was already Wave 2. Next would be Wave 3, triggered by opening the borders.

 

They could verify with antibody tests ("too expensive"), although it might be too late now as the antibodies for other coronaviruses start to wane in the bloodstream after 6 months or so.

 

This information would be valuable if verified, but no, usurpers don't want to research. Just keep the state of emergency to prevent student uprising, while at the same time open borders for Chinese to resume their tourist trough. Those are their priorities.

[cmarshall]

2 hours ago, Upnotover said:

I think he was referring to the statement in the story that the infection rate would be squared, not doubled.  i.e. 100 becomes 10,000.

The quote from the original article is:

 

“If there are about 100 new infections in one day, it means the virus has already spread widely.  When it spreads, the number of infections will not be doubled, but squared,” he said, adding that several countries are already experiencing second rounds of infections.

 

cornishcarlo's statement was:

 

Really, so every 100 infected people will infect 100 each ?? That's a pretty high R value !!

 

 

conrnishcarlo is confusing R0, the number of persons an infected person will infect directly before he dies or recovers, with R, the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual at time t in the partially susceptible population.  R0 is a dimensionless number.  R is a rate over time, which can be expressed as doubling time, for example.  Dr. Prasit is talking about R, not R0, although initially with a novel virus R = R0 since everyone is susceptible.  He is describing exponential growth which will indeed grow at a quadratic rate over time.  But it is the number of infections in the populations that grows quadratically over time, not the number of persons infected directly by a diseased person which has an upper bound of R0, or 2 as we are assuming in this case.  

 

R0 is a property of the virus once it enters humans.  R is a function of R0 reduced by either the percentage of immune persons in the population, the limited number of contacts due to quarantine or other social distancing, such as wearing masks.  If R goes below 1 the virus dies out.  If R remains above 1 then everyone becomes infected eventually.

 

It cannot be doubted that the virus spreads exponentially since this is the very exponential-looking graph of the growth of Covid infections worldwide:

 

 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[cornishcarlos]

3 hours ago, cmarshall said:

No, that's an R0 = 1 which is low.  The R0 of Covid-19 is believed to be between 2 and 5.  Measles has an R0 of 18.  An R0 = 1 would result in a steady state, neither increasing nor decreasing.  An R0 < 1 means the infection will disappear, while an R0 > 0 means everyone will eventually be infected unless there is some intervention to prevent that, such as widespread social distancing.

 

For a number to square, it has to be each person out of 100 infects 100 others. Are you sure that's not an RO bigger than 1 !!

[DrTuner]

15 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

The quote from the original article is:

 

“If there are about 100 new infections in one day, it means the virus has already spread widely.  When it spreads, the number of infections will not be doubled, but squared,” he said, adding that several countries are already experiencing second rounds of infections.

 

cornishcarlo's statement was:

 

Really, so every 100 infected people will infect 100 each ?? That's a pretty high R value !!

 

 

conrnishcarlo is confusing R0, the number of persons an infected person will infect directly before he dies or recovers, with R, the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual at time t in the partially susceptible population.  R0 is a dimensionless number.  R is a rate over time, which can be expressed as doubling time, for example.  Dr. Prasit is talking about R, not R0, although initially with a novel virus R = R0 since everyone is susceptible.  He is describing exponential growth which will indeed grow at a quadratic rate over time.  But it is the number of infections in the populations that grows quadratically over time, not the number of persons infected directly by a diseased person which has an upper bound of R0, or 2 as we are assuming in this case.  

 

R0 is a property of the virus once it enters humans.  R is a function of R0 reduced by either the percentage of immune persons in the population, the limited number of contacts due to quarantine or other social distancing, such as wearing masks.  If R goes below 1 the virus dies out.  If R remains above 1 then everyone becomes infected eventually.

 

It cannot be doubted that the virus spreads exponentially since this is the very exponential-looking graph of the growth of Covid infections worldwide:

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

 

It's actually  or  .I think that's pretty hard to communicate through a press release. Even this forum has trouble displaying it.

Quote

Effective reproduction number[edit]

In reality, varying proportions of the population are immune to any given disease at any given time. To account for this, the effective reproduction number {\displaystyle R_{e}} is used, also written as {\displaystyle R_{t}}, or the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual at time t in the partially susceptible population. It can be found by multiplying {\displaystyle R_{0}} by the fraction S of the population that is susceptible. When the fraction of the population that is immune increases so much that {\displaystyle R_{e}} drops below 1, "herd immunity" has been achieved and the number of cases occurring in the population will gradually decrease to zero.^[31][32][33]

 

[lesmac]

Is this the same prof that said the melting of the ice caps would not affect Thailand because they were to far away to be affected

[cmarshall]

51 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

For a number to square, it has to be each person out of 100 infects 100 others. Are you sure that's not an RO bigger than 1 !!

Reading skills no better than your math skills?  You are focused on R0.  Dr. Prasit is not talking about R0.  There is no requirement that the original 100 directly infect 10,000 people, only that in a period of time the 100 infect 200 who infect 400 who infect 800.  At the end of that period of time 10,000 are infected, but not by the original 100 which is your confusion.  

 

Is grasping this difference really beyond you?

[sungod]

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

That's why the only reliable indicator is comparing total number of deaths week-on-week to earlier years. Data not available for Thailand. Some other countries showed a marked increase, I can't find the article now but will dig.

 

The importance of that is to get an accurate picture of the current situation and that is needed for further planning. Same as random antibody tests, etc. Information for decision making.

Serious answer- they have saved 50 lives a day on the roads with this restriction.

[DrTuner]

11 minutes ago, sungod said:

Serious answer- they have saved 50 lives a day on the roads with this restriction.

And not only that, other communicable diseases are also likely less than average. Other viruses cause pneumonia too and masks & co help against them as well. Still, the total body count is the only completely objective stat. You are either dead or not.

[DrTuner]

Here's an article from WEF (yes the NWO illuminati Gates devils themselves, get yer tinfoils ready):

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/covid-19-death-toll-misleading-all-cause-mortality-excess-deaths-pandemic/

 

Quote

• As of 6 May, there have been more than 3.6 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 250,000 deaths.
• However, it’s impossible to know the true figures now.
• Differences in data collection, as well as delays in death registrations, contribute to the uncertainty.
• Looking at the total number of deaths from any cause, and comparing that number with expected averages, can give a clearer picture.

 

Data not available for general public in Thailand. MoPH does not publish AFAIK.

 

I've been monitoring the death cert reports for Pneumonia in the provinces from 6th of May until today: https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a

 

It was first elevated at almost double the daily average from last year (~60/d average, first week was around 100-120/d), now it seems to be going under the average. That'd indicate the lockdown is having a large effect to pneumonia deaths in general. If they bothered to publish daily stats, we could really make the comparison. Benchmark was 11,170 on 6th, it's now 12,796. It's unknown how large delays there are in the data transmission since it seems to be "file based", I would not be surprised if that's excel sheets.

[Knocker33]

I have bookmarked this thread and will return to it on a few month's time. 

[pmh2009]

Whoever wrote this must a be a farang - Caucasian!!!! as in the US coughing at security guards who would not let them in as they did not wear masks, even killing one guard! These people/farangs always cause trouble wherever they go!!!  Having sex on the beach! saying there were WMDs in Iraq!!!! They should be kicked out of the Asian countries!!!

 

In March this year, Dr. Prasit predicted that COVID-19 infections in Thailand would peak at over 100,000 with hundreds of fatalities by mid-April.  To date, however, about 3,000 plus cases have been recorded with a death toll of 57.

 

Doesn't give him much credibility at all, but we are expected to believe his latest fear mongering ? 

Thaiwrath

[Anton9]

9 minutes ago, pmh2009 said:

Whoever wrote this must a be a farang - Caucasian!!!! as in the US coughing at security guards who would not let them in as they did not wear masks, even killing one guard! These people/farangs always cause trouble wherever they go!!!  Having sex on the beach! saying there were WMDs in Iraq!!!! They should be kicked out of the Asian countries!!!

 

In March this year, Dr. Prasit predicted that COVID-19 infections in Thailand would peak at over 100,000 with hundreds of fatalities by mid-April.  To date, however, about 3,000 plus cases have been recorded with a death toll of 57.

 

Doesn't give him much credibility at all, but we are expected to believe his latest fear mongering ? 

Thaiwrath

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30384494

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7999601/Chinese-woman-repeatedly-spits-lift-buttons-vent-frustration-coronavirus-outbreak.html

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/coronavirus/video-2107194/Video-Chinese-woman-refuses-temperature-check-spits-police.html

 

Check those links and think again about what you said

 

[cornishcarlos]

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

Is grasping this difference really beyond you?

 

It would appear so...

[cornishcarlos]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

And not only that, other communicable diseases are also likely less than average. Other viruses cause pneumonia too and masks & co help against them as well. Still, the total body count is the only completely objective stat. You are either dead or not.

 

Or starving and skint !!

[daveAustin]

12 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

In March this year, Dr. Prasit predicted that COVID-19 infections in Thailand would peak at over 100,000 with hundreds of fatalities by mid-April.  To date, however, about 3,000 plus cases have been recorded with a death toll of 57.

 

Doesn't give him much credibility at all, but we are expected to believe his latest fear mongering ?

 

12 hours ago, Buddha Pist said:

Yeah so where did they hide the corpses, Sherlock?

Typically, numpty viewpoints like this will probably be the accepted norm which is just how CCP-wannabe would have you believe. 'Losing' hundreds, even thousands, among a big population is a doddle. We're not talking people dying on the street (you don't even see that in UK/US); it is more subtle, with folk who were going to die anyway dying at home or in hospital of 'pneumonia'. I'd certainly believe this guy over most there. Thailand isn't special regards this and somewhere so heavily dependent on tourism/face would be in their interests to not show numbers. China/Thailand multiply stats by 10-100.

[pacovl46]

13 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

In March this year, Dr. Prasit predicted that COVID-19 infections in Thailand would peak at over 100,000 with hundreds of fatalities by mid-April.  To date, however, about 3,000 plus cases have been recorded with a death toll of 57.

 

Doesn't give him much credibility at all, but we are expected to believe his latest fear mongering ?

Yeah, because Thailand did extensive testing and therefore they know exactly how many infected they actually had! SMH!!! 

[Fex Bluse]

15 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

In March this year, Dr. Prasit predicted that COVID-19 infections in Thailand would peak at over 100,000 with hundreds of fatalities by mid-April.  To date, however, about 3,000 plus cases have been recorded with a death toll of 57.

 

Doesn't give him much credibility at all, but we are expected to believe his latest fear mongering ?

He may have been right... The Thais only tested a handful of people per day, so who knows exactly how many infections there are... 

[PatOngo]

7 hours ago, pmh2009 said:

Whoever wrote this must a be a farang - Caucasian!!!! as in the US coughing at security guards who would not let them in as they did not wear masks, even killing one guard! These people/farangs always cause trouble wherever they go!!!  Having sex on the beach! saying there were WMDs in Iraq!!!! They should be kicked out of the Asian countries!!!

 What would be the feeling if western countries reciprocated with Asians? What would you do with your western real estate that Caucasians CAN'T purchase in SOME countries in Asia? Where would you get your DECENT QUALITY EDUCATION?

[Tounge Thaied]

If you want the numbers to go up, just do what America does, tests EVERYONE and if you don't have a test handy, diagnos everyone who comes to the emergency room with flu like symptoms to have Covid19. Job done.