Only after another 14 days without domestic Covid-19 cases can Thailand 'consider itself safe

[KhaoYai]

8 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

...and those 7 cases, like all the others during the past 13 days, are safely sequestered away from the rest of us in government quarantine. That point has been made loud and clear.

OK so how about the barber in Bangkok that was infected by a customer?

[Traubert]

47 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

OK so how about the barber in Bangkok that was infected by a customer?

Or the Taxi Driver that ferried the Chinese around...........................

[Anton9]

1 hour ago, KhaoYai said:

OK so how about the barber in Bangkok that was infected by a customer?

How about him?Who cares?

It was more than 2 weeks ago

Edited June 8, 2020 by Anton9

[Anton9]

21 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Or the Taxi Driver that ferried the Chinese around...........................

That was 3 months ago for God's sake

[Mac98]

You ever watched Olympic opening ceremonies? Military parades? University marching bands? Las Vegas showgirls? The Rockettes? It's hyptomizing. The government officials can't take their eyes away from so many people prancing to their orders.

[Mac98]

1 hour ago, KhaoYai said:

OK so how about the barber in Bangkok that was infected by a customer?

The idea of quarantine and social distancing was to get the caseload to a manageable level. I think they can manage one case for every 69 million people per week.

[Anton9]

1 minute ago, Mac98 said:

The idea of quarantine and social distancing was to get the caseload to a manageable level. I think they can manage one case for every 69 million people per week.

I think they are now pursuing the idea of zero cases and Covid free long term which will be a huge problem if they want to open up the country

[Traubert]

Oi you're advertising beer on the Internet.

 

Bht50,000 please! ????

[pegman]

10 hours ago, pegman said:

 

I had trouble with the link using this useless iPad. The post was from a Koh Chang blogger. Hopefully someone can repost the link.b

Can someone have a go at opening this report. I'm having no luck.

 

 

https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report_eis.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a

[DrTuner]

16 minutes ago, pegman said:

Can someone have a go at opening this report. I'm having no luck.

 

 

https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report_eis.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a

I've been monitoring it since May 6th, pneumonia deaths then were 11,170, they are now 13,474. That's about 68/d, which is a bit over average, but there are seasonal peaks anyway. In the first week or two after the 6th of May it was briefly at over 100/d. Nothing dramatic, but clearly elevated. Since the average is now coming down, it's likely right now there are less pneumonia deaths than usual. Lockdown will also ease other respitory problems.

 

I think the quoted post hasn't taken into account that data is for the budget year, not for the calendar year.

[Susco]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I've been monitoring it since May 6th, pneumonia deaths then were 11,170, they are now 13,474. That's about 68/d, which is a bit over average, but there are seasonal peaks anyway. In the first week or two after the 6th of May it was briefly at over 100/d. Nothing dramatic, but clearly elevated. Since the average is now coming down, it's likely right now there are less pneumonia deaths than usual. Lockdown will also ease other respitory problems.

 

I think the quoted post hasn't taken into account that data is for the budget year, not for the calendar year.

If it is a bit over average on a 365 day period, it can still have been a lot over average in the last 90 days.

 

Also 100 a day in the 2 weeks after 6th of May, is almost double the average, and since after 6 May probably was when the peak was reached already, it has most likely be considerable higher than that in the 2 months prior to 6 May.

So it becomes very clear that the covid death number has been falsified by this government.

[DrTuner]

10 minutes ago, Susco said:

Also 100 a day in the 2 weeks after 6th of May, is almost double the average, and since after 6 May probably was when the peak was reached already, it has most likely be considerable higher than that in the 2 months prior to 6 May.

So it becomes very clear that the covid death number has been falsified by this government.

Not falsified, they simply did not test the dead. Government people don't like to give out false figures, as those can later be traced and they can be held accountable. Instead they opt to use some sort of filter to keep the raw details to themselves, but also be a able to defend the filtered numbers. 

 

One thing is for sure, the published numbers are the absolute lowest limit.

Edited June 8, 2020 by DrTuner

[uhuh]

The link doesn't open. 

No excess mortality in Thailand found by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html#

 

[shdmn]

Only another 14 days until they decide that it should only be another 14 days.  Didn't this whole thing start out as being only for a month or two and they just kept extending it over and over again even though the numbers never justified it.

[uhuh]

28 days = 2 incubation periods without local transmission is standard procedure if you want to completely eradicate a virus from your country (like Taiwan,  NZ, Iceland, Mauritius,  Fiji ... but they are all much smaller than Thailand).

I would never have thought that Thailand aims so high. Hard to believe Thailand would achieve something no other country of its size doesn't even try. 

 

But once you open borders again cases will be imported. Taiwan (virus- free already,  but borders still closed) today calculated if only one case every 5 days slips into the country (meaning slips through whatever quarantine there may be) and if there is no social distancing,  masks and hand washing any more (ie normal life) - their health system would be over it's limits within half a year. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by uhuh

[DrTuner]

42 minutes ago, uhuh said:

The link doesn't open. 

No excess mortality in Thailand found by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html#

 

Says +1800. Not sure what their data source is.

 

Some of it is here: https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/tree/master/excess-deaths

Edited June 8, 2020 by DrTuner

[uhuh]

35 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

 

Says +1800. Not sure what their data source is.

 

Some of it is here: https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/tree/master/excess-deaths

Sorry, you are right. I just saw it myself and was going to post this. 

I should have gone through the whole article one more time before posting.  

 

They find 4% excess mortality,  much less than in places like Spain or UK, but a lot more than the reported death toll.

[maxcorrigan]

16 hours ago, Traubert said:

Oi you're advertising beer on the Internet.

 

Bht50,000 please! ????

Sorry i did'nt notice i was distracted!

[joecoolfrog]

14 hours ago, uhuh said:

The link doesn't open. 

No excess mortality in Thailand found by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html#

 

The data on Thailand was for March only and showed 1700 extra deaths that month.

[uhuh]

3 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

The data on Thailand was for March only and showed 1700 extra deaths that month.

Yes, see above,  posts from Dr Tuner and myself

[JCP108]

11 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

The data on Thailand was for March only and showed 1700 extra deaths that month.

Right. And, if you read the methods section of the article, for most of the countries, this is a conservative estimate of extra deaths. I looked at the article and can't find what they used as a source. 

 

So, an extra 1,800 deaths in one month and no mounds of dead bodies or social media posts from Thai people letting us know about it. Can that happen? We've been told by several sage TV posters that that would be impossible. 

[uhuh]

11 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Right. And, if you read the methods section of the article, for most of the countries, this is a conservative estimate of extra deaths. I looked at the article and can't find what they used as a source. 

 

So, an extra 1,800 deaths in one month and no mounds of dead bodies or social media posts from Thai people letting us know about it. Can that happen? We've been told by several sage TV posters that that would be impossible. 

1800 deaths are 25 deaths in every province,  over a month. 

Of course,  nobody would notice. 

Switzerland 6000 excess deaths, ten times less population than Thailand - even this was hardly noticeable. 

New York and New Jersey 44000 excess deaths,  people did notice.

 

[DrTuner]

I would be more interested in the numbers of deaths for the November-February period than March. If there's an uptick, it would indicate the virus swept through back then, which would fit the timeline of events well.

[JCP108]

2 hours ago, uhuh said:

1800 deaths are 25 deaths in every province,  over a month. 

Of course,  nobody would notice. 

Switzerland 6000 excess deaths, ten times less population than Thailand - even this was hardly noticeable. 

New York and New Jersey 44000 excess deaths,  people did notice.

 

I've tried to explain that on here a dozen times and have failed the same number. Many here simply can't wrap their head around it.

 

If excess deaths, must be mounds of bodies we'd be tripping over and individual cases of death by Covid-19 would cause the family members of that person to instantly become magically aware of the country-wide public health data and the specific monthly numbers and that amount of increased rate of death would be reported to us via social media. 

Edited June 9, 2020 by JCP108

[uhuh]

5 hours ago, JCP108 said:

I've tried to explain that on here a dozen times and have failed the same number. Many here simply can't wrap their head around it.

 

If excess deaths, must be mounds of bodies we'd be tripping over and individual cases of death by Covid-19 would cause the family members of that person to instantly become magically aware of the country-wide public health data and the specific monthly numbers and that amount of increased rate of death would be reported to us via social media. 

It's too difficult to understand the difference between 1800 and 44000...

[JCP108]

6 hours ago, uhuh said:

It's too difficult to understand the difference between 1800 and 44000...

And two other things: 1) that all those deaths don't happen close together in time and space so no mound of bodies, and 2) that the family of one person dying isn't going to become aware of the aggregate increase in deaths problem since they are as unaware of the data as the rest of us even while directly connected to one case. 

 

It's also perplexing that people can't understand that hospitals don't get overwhelmed by an extra 4% of business. They really don't. Also, an extra 4% of business doesn't make the parking lots fuller by a noticeable amount. 

[KhaoYai]

On 6/8/2020 at 10:43 AM, Anton9 said:

How about him?Who cares?

It was more than 2 weeks ago

The one I heard about wasn't and yes, its only one but one isn't zero. Two people not too far from my home were admitted to hospital recently and diagnosed with 'pneumonia'. According to a relative they are in an isolation ward at the hospital.  Far be it from me to suggest that some 'massaging' of the figures is going on.

[metisdead]

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