Chulalongkorn University prof warns of second virus wave, advises govt to crack down on unsafe gatherings

[Caldera]

Thailand's published numbers indicate that there's no community transmission and that all new cases are safely locked away in state quarantine.

 

That being the case, people can gather as much as they want - if none of them is infected, none of them can spread the virus to others obviously.

 

Somehow this has to be brought in sync. Either the numbers are bogus and need to be fixed to reflect reality. Or the lockdown needs to end.

 

[davemos]

More recession more unemployment more food queues. Then wait for the third wave .

[yourauntbob]

I wonder when they are going to let this go already.  Anyone with eyes can see the response was over blown.  All the original estimates were wrong (and they included "if we did what they said), 

 

These people crave the spot light and dont want to let it go.  

[Jingthing]

4 hours ago, Caldera said:

Thailand's published numbers indicate that there's no community transmission and that all new cases are safely locked away in state quarantine.

 

That being the case, people can gather as much as they want - if none of them is infected, none of them can spread the virus to others obviously.

 

Somehow this has to be brought in sync. Either the numbers are bogus and need to be fixed to reflect reality. Or the lockdown needs to end.

 

No. it does not have to be brought into synch.

Anyone that thinks about this for a few seconds well understands that the official counts based on a tiny amount of testing can't possibly reflect the reality.

But nobody knows to what degree.

While the economy is opening up in a stepped way and that is definitely needed, it does not follow that we are anywhere close to the time where no restrictions and adjustments (such as mask wearing) would be prudent or logical.

It's not one or the other. It's a process. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Jingthing

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, yourauntbob said:

I wonder when they are going to let this go already.  Anyone with eyes can see the response was over blown.  All the original estimates were wrong (and they included "if we did what they said), 

 

These people crave the spot light and dont want to let it go.  

Your complaint which is reflective of course of large numbers of people and understandably so is classic push back to public health measures. If people think they are too harsh and the case counts seem low to have justified such harsh measures, that's an indication that the level of measures were pretty good. Nobody can expect perfection. Look at the USA for example. If they had taken harsh measures many weeks earlier, it wouldn't have the highest number of deaths in the world. But people wouldn't have accepted very harsh measures when they didn't see cases. From the public health POV, they almost can't win. People will complain no matter what, even when what they're doing works!

[Jingthing]

8 hours ago, rwill said:

Since apparently no one in Thailand has Covid-19(other than those returning from overseas and in quarantine) there is no danger at all of it spreading.

"Apparently" based on very low rate of testing so the basis of that argument is flawed.

[Jingthing]

13 hours ago, natway09 said:

It is one thing to be cautious, it is another to scaremonger

This virus laughs at such distinctions. 

[Lingba]

here we go again...as soon as somebody sneezes from a common cold everyone will go into panic mode

[ubon farang]

18 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Nonsense. And panic mongering. Thira should be arrested and locked up now. The only way we will get a second wave, is if the government is careless about letting in infected international travelers. Covid is gone from Thailand. Zapped. DOA. KIA. Let it go. Let the people get back to work, and stop the goons who are collecting full salaries from preventing this from happening. 

Honestly Mike you are correct The people just want to get back to work and live there lives. This guy would be on full wages I be honest in my villiage most dont wear masks. 

[hotchilli]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

Chulalongkorn University professor of medicine Dr Thira Woratanarat criticised the unsafe gathering of people as a high-risk factor for contracting Covid-19 and suggested that the government take action against venues or places that allow such events to be organised

Are you listening Anutin ?

[BobbyL]

Completely unnecessary scaremongering. I wonder if Anutin's lunch gathering last week was deemed 'unsafe'. 

[checkered flag]

Is the real issue on social gathering about preventing protests? 

[JCP108]

Just now, checkered flag said:

Is the real issue on social gathering about preventing protests? 

Shsh. Don't say that out loud.

[Stargeezr]

I am glad that Thailand has had low numbers of the Covid 19 virus, and they also

mostly wear masks and have done some social distancing.   Just a couple days ago

the Canadian PM was in the protest mob on parliament hill, no mask, and less than 6 feet from

his protectors and staff, what a great example after all the stuff he has been telling

the Canadians to do to social distance, and all the restrictions he put on the population

like, no your parent cannot see you and has to die alone because they are in a seniors

residence.  Hope your future is bright Thailand and the tourism does return.

Geezer

[pineapple01]

A Chula Student is harder to get rid of than Covits once it starts talking to You. If advice came from a Prof at Chiang Mai, the  Top Medical Uni, not a Yappers Uni it would be worth hearing.????

[DB58]

20 hours ago, Kinnock said:

So three weeks ago people were packed on the BTS and queuing to enter malls, and no local transmission since.  It has a 5-7 day incubation period - so his science is based on what?  It's no wonder Chula does not make it into the top 200 universities in the world.

 

But if he wants something to help him join the fear bandwagon, how about this theory of my own:

 

Thailand imported the original, less virulent strain direct from Wuhan, whereas UK, Europe, Iran and US got a more virulent mutation.  That may be why US and UK have higher rates and why all Thailand's recent cases are imported.  So when tourist flights resume, we get the second wave.

 

Or an alternative theory is that Thailand achieved herd immunity in December/January due to the 500,000 arrivals from Wuhan.

 

Or the most likely theory - most people in US, UK and Middle East are fat bastards.

I am not fat!

[mok199]

Thai Tink Tank , Tink Too Mutt

[Bender Rodriguez]

what first wave ?

[pookondee]

21 hours ago, Moonlover said:

I suspect that Thailand did have a first wave, but it went completely undetected. A 'silent epidemic'.

 

Recall that it has now been established that the first recorded case in China was in mid November. Genealogists have done some research that suggests that it could have been around as early as mid October.

 

There is no telling how many infected Chinese visited Thailand during the virus's first emergence and its detection at the end of December. Imagine, all those Chinese spreading their 'cold and flu' bugs around! 

 

And no one realizing that it was actually Covid 19. No one was looking for it, or counting the cases, because no one knew it existed!

 

It's only a theory, but it could explain why the official count is so low.

That is a pretty solid theory actually.

 

I remember before we knew about Covid, walking around BKK thinking how unhealthy these people are.

It was like every second person was coughing and wheezing.

At the time we probably all blamed the pollution, but could it have been a light covid strain?

 

The way they pack into buses and small vans, anything viral was always going to  spread like wild fire.

 

Another theory i have:

Every country seems to only blame the "incoming foriegners" for the worst of the covid.

So, could it be, once someone has it and gets on a flight, the conditions therein, and sitting in a plane cabin for hours on end, might do something to make the sickness more serious?

 

 

[JCP108]

7 minutes ago, pookondee said:

 

Every country seems to only blame the "incoming foriegners" for the worst of the covid.

 

 

 

Another theory is that every country wants to place the blame on someone else. Xenophobia and lack of responsibility abound.

[Moonlover]

32 minutes ago, pookondee said:

Every country seems to only blame the "incoming foriegners" for the worst of the covid.

So, could it be, once someone has it and gets on a flight, the conditions therein, and sitting in a plane cabin for hours on end, might do something to make the sickness more serious?

I'm not so sure about the flight affecting the illness. But hey, it's a great way to pass on the virus to your fellow holiday makers isn't it.

 

'Thailand, here we come' said the virus! ????

 

[Kinnock]

1 hour ago, pookondee said:

That is a pretty solid theory actually.

 

I remember before we knew about Covid, walking around BKK thinking how unhealthy these people are.

It was like every second person was coughing and wheezing.

At the time we probably all blamed the pollution, but could it have been a light covid strain?

 

The way they pack into buses and small vans, anything viral was always going to  spread like wild fire.

 

Another theory i have:

Every country seems to only blame the "incoming foriegners" for the worst of the covid.

So, could it be, once someone has it and gets on a flight, the conditions therein, and sitting in a plane cabin for hours on end, might do something to make the sickness more serious?

 

 

I hadn't thought the effect of flying, but that makes sense to me.  Most cases are very mild, but the effect of lower cabin pressure and low humidity could make some mild cases more severe.  In the early days of the outbreak, hospitals found that the ventilators can make things worse.

 

Probably a combination of several factors - high levels of herd immunity due to the high numbers of Chinese visitors in December/January keeping current numbers low, plus impact of flights highlighting imported cases.

[spidermike007]

On 6/8/2020 at 12:12 PM, Jingthing said:

There is no way of knowing the actual situation in Thailand because testing has been so limited. So I consider broadcasting that the virus is gone here to be misleading. It might be. That is all anyone can honestly say. 

You do not need testing. If the virus were still here, it would be spreading. Alot of people would be sick and dying. Sometimes science is not required. Sometimes common sense and instincts prevail over testing. Many are simply not willing to let go of their apocalyptic prognostications. 

[spidermike007]

On 6/8/2020 at 11:55 AM, holy cow cm said:

There was a sit in the other day in BKK because of someone being abducted in Cambodia. Bad people spreading the C19 virus.

Total BS. Covid can only be spread, if it exists to begin with. If it were still here, in the numbers many panic mongers claim, thousands would be very sick, and many would be dying. None of that is happening. So, stop the nonsense please. You and other poorly informed individuals are continuing to be responsible for spreading panic, and prolonging the ignorance. 

[spidermike007]

19 hours ago, Clarkey611 said:

Seems that Chulalongkorn is in a steady decline since 2016 where it was in the 601 - 800 grouping. That just about sums up the whole situation!

And Chulalongkorn is the top university in Thailand!

[Jingthing]

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

You do not need testing. If the virus were still here, it would be spreading. Alot of people would be sick and dying. Sometimes science is not required. Sometimes common sense and instincts prevail over testing. Many are simply not willing to let go of their apocalyptic prognostications. 

Oh I see. 

You're against science. 

That's lovely. 

Not sure where that apocalyptic silliness comes from. 

All I said is that without more widespread random testing it's impossible to really know what the actual virus situation is here. 

That's quite a mild factual statement. 

Hardly apocalyptic. 

[holy cow cm]

21 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Total BS. Covid can only be spread, if it exists to begin with. If it were still here, in the numbers many panic mongers claim, thousands would be very sick, and many would be dying. None of that is happening. So, stop the nonsense please. You and other poorly informed individuals are continuing to be responsible for spreading panic, and prolonging the ignorance. 

I would stop the gibberish name calling if I were you. I was totally being facetious. Joking! And if you read that was one of the reasons the police said they were on site. I am well informed.

[JCP108]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Total BS. Covid can only be spread, if it exists to begin with. If it were still here, in the numbers many panic mongers claim, thousands would be very sick, and many would be dying. None of that is happening. So, stop the nonsense please. You and other poorly informed individuals are continuing to be responsible for spreading panic, and prolonging the ignorance. 

How do you know none of that is happening?

[yourauntbob]

16 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Your complaint which is reflective of course of large numbers of people and understandably so is classic push back to public health measures. If people think they are too harsh and the case counts seem low to have justified such harsh measures, that's an indication that the level of measures were pretty good. Nobody can expect perfection. Look at the USA for example. If they had taken harsh measures many weeks earlier, it wouldn't have the highest number of deaths in the world. But people wouldn't have accepted very harsh measures when they didn't see cases. From the public health POV, they almost can't win. People will complain no matter what, even when what they're doing works!

There has been no correlation between measures taken by governments and the number of deaths.  There have been high death counts in areas with strict measures (NYC), and high death counts in areas with little to no measures (Sweden).  There have been low death counts in areas with strict measures (Thailand), and low death counts in areas with little to no measures (Japan). 

 

If they are in a "no win" situation, then let freedom ring!  Id rather die of my own bad decisions than of a decision enforced on me by the barrel of a gun.  

Edited June 9, 2020 by yourauntbob

[uchibenkei]

The following exceptions exist for social distancing rules: rioting and looting