US death toll at it lowest since early March, yet getting no coverage

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

And more in a companion article:

 

Quote

 

Nationwide, the daily coronavirus death toll exceeded 1,000 for the sixth day in a row on Saturday, according to The Post’s data. The 1,198 new fatalities marked the most that officials have counted on a Saturday, when death reports tend to be lower than those tallied midweek, since May 9.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s most recent analysis of pandemic fatalities shows weekly reports of new deaths increasing over the next month, with 5,000 to 11,000 new deaths projected in the third week of August. The national death toll could climb to more than 168,000 by that time, with a high estimate of 182,000, according to the CDC’s review.

 

Amid the rising deaths, Trump on Sunday struck an optimistic note, tweeting, “USA will be stronger than ever before, and soon!”

 

 

If you happen to be in the mortuary business, I guess....   

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/02/coronavirus-covid-updates/

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

On 8/1/2020 at 5:12 PM, cmarshall said:

Looks like opening the schools is going to lead to a major disaster.

 

Finally, Dr. Birx of the WH Coronavirus task force appears to break with Trump on his all schools in-person reopening nonsense:

 

 

Quote

 

With the new academic year starting soon in many communities, Birx also suggested that schools avoid in-person instruction in places where infections are rising — a departure from recent demands by Trump and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos that schools fully reopen in the fall.
 

“We need to stop the cases,” Birx said. “If you have high caseload and active community spread — just like we’re asking people not to go to bars, not to have household parties, not to create large spreading events, we’re asking people to distance-learn at this moment so we can get this epidemic under control.”

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/02/coronavirus-covid-updates/

 

 

[Why Me]

Deaths are going up again:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/02/coronavirus-covid-updates/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_leadall-930am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

 

If C-19 isn't controlled in the US in a couple of months Trump's forked.

[Scott]

A post containing an inflammatory addition to a persons name has been removed.   Continued misuse of names will earn suspensions.  

 

[jastheace]

On 7/31/2020 at 2:00 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

No news that helps a certain person will be published by the media that, IMO, hates him.

there is NO positive NEW news that will help a 'certain person' anyway, whether media love or hate him (or her just to get the PC bit in). He (or her) has their own media outfit to help promote themselves....

[The Snark]

3 hours ago, Why Me said:

If C-19 isn't controlled in the US in a couple of months Trump's forked.

Please bear with me for a few and allow me to present some science. There are no absolutes in science. No 1+1 will always and forever =2. Black holes or dark matter prove even that simplest of equations to be questionable.

"Science said this about SARS-CoV-19, AKA C-19 virus and then changed their tune." That's science for you. Proof if you will that science is on the job. Everything in the universe is changing, in a state of permanent flux. The Virus that ostensibly started, or gained traction, in Wuhan, is not the exact same identical virus in the wild today. Similar, yes, but with slight variations.

 

Let's look at the 1918 flu. It came and went in a couple of years and did this and caused that mortality. Said and done? No. That virus is alive and quite active today, the common seasonal flu, which causes the death of 30,000 to 50,000 people in the US every year. AND, 100 years after the major outbreak, pandemic, the vaccine that was finally developed is roughly 70% effective. And that 70% varies from population to population, locale to locale, season to season. There are no absolutes, even in something that has been intensely studied for 100 years. All life on the planet is mutating. It's that simple. 1+1 will never equal 2 when the life version of that formula is ~1+1. You aren't a perfect reproduction of your ancestors and your descendants will never be perfect replications of you. With C-19 we are already a few million or billion or maybe hundred quadrillion iterations from when it came out of the gate. Same basic genes, but with variations, that have been altered by environments.

 

Or to put it in simplified terms. Person A that I escorted to a hospital from a community outside Chiang Dao and person B that I escorted to a hospital outside Mae Chem both had identical tests revealing a leptospirosis infection. Person A was given two shots and a 2 week course of oral antibiotics. Around 10 days the symptoms cleared up and said and done. Healthy. Person B, same treatment. Oral was extended an additional week, then another week, then that antibiotic was changed to two different ones. Infection cleared up after approximately 80 days.

 

Virologist A said X about C-19 in January. Virologist B said an entirely different thing in June. Both were correct. Both were operating on data available at that time. The bottom line here is anyone who makes a solid precise prediction about where C-19 is going, who will be infected, how many, how severe, and how infectious that person is, is wrong. Talking out the rear vent. Science will not, can not, make such a prediction. No absolute, only what we know so far.

And with an organism as young as C-19 is, we know very little. The only thing we can be reasonably certain of is if we do not transmit it, it will go into remission.

 

So when you hear a politician making claims, well..... ask them to turn around and speak to you face to face.

 

And then the conspiracy theorists. And the fringe science. Your computer or PDA will always operate exactly the same as all others for the exact same period of time. 1+1=2, right?

I've worked with the Gates foundation on three occasions. There is no group of people on the planet more sticklers for scientific methodology. They demand facts and nothing but facts. Bill Gates talking out his rear vent? Not a chance. But, as he will be the first to admit, he is going by the immediate facts at hand as best we know them. You can use him as a gold standard. He didn't get where he is now, by running on half cocked theories and conspiracies.

 

The same applies with Fauci and the other apexes of science that are chiming in on C-19. They aren't going by some wild hair theory, but are the pinnacles of all the knowledge of the institutes beneath them giving their cumulative best guesses SO FAR.

 

 

Trump's forked. Please, get real. Just listen to basic science. Trump's connection with it is a distant one. At best it would be safest to use him as a weather vane. If he said it, it's probably wrong. As far as 100 days... consider track records, trends as we in the medical fields call them. Just look at past track records for accuracy and tendencies to deal in solid proven facts. Forked? It is going to depend entirely on how many people will prefer to not come up to speed on science.

 

And back to reality. We have one weapon to fight H1N1 and C-19. ONE. ONLY ONE. No silver bullet on the horizon: Do Not Transmit The Virus. Scientifically it's called isolation and containment. That's all we got.

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by The Snark
sp

[The Snark]

By the way, how about a little irony? People not wearing masks. Not practicing social distancing. Demanding the right to have their own say as to what they do with their bodies - and indirectly what harm they may cause to others. Many of these people are the same ones with the same mentality; wanting to take away a woman's choice regarding abortions.

Will you folks please consider getting on one side of the fence and staying there? PLEASE? Masks on, social distance, strict isolation, accept the extreme financial burdens, then no to women's personal choices.

 

Epidemic control rule #1: flatten the new infection curve through isolation and containment. Rule 2. Keep #1 flat for at least 3 times the expected probability of contagion. Rule 3. Complacency kills.

 

C-19 US Aug 03 00:11: 4,813,640 infections, 158,347 deaths. 3.29% mortality.

Edited August 3, 2020 by The Snark

[The Snark]

By the way: ~400,000 deaths per year from malaria. Re: hydroxychloroquine. This is especially meaningful to the expats in SE Asia. How many of you have contracted malaria? Fortunately, due to decades of effort from a vast number of people, the answer is few. Unfortunately, plasmodium, like C-19, mutates. Has mutated. At present we have one weapon as our front line of defense. Hydroxychloroquine. Second line of defense: none.

Fact: this drug has no proven efficacy against C-19. If it did that would be week long headline news on every media site in the world.

Fact: the more this drug is used, the greater the probability plasmodium will develop resistance. It already is partially resistant.

 

Please use common sense. Stick to strictly proven science. This grasping at straws stands an excellent chance of causing more harm than good.

[englishoak]

Be real cool of people would stop trying to control the lives of others based on what they want or beliefs.. 

[The Snark]

12 minutes ago, englishoak said:

Be real cool of people would stop trying to control the lives of others based on what they want or beliefs.. 

Amen to that. In my 40+ years in emergency services my #1 gripe has always been victimless crimes. Nobody harmed but that individual. Boil it down to do whatever the heck you want, just don't involve other people. Extend respect to others.

[The Snark]

US death toll at it lowest since early March, yet getting no coverage

 

Let this be a warning to all. Not the fake headline, but the fact is has been read and accepted as fact by a vast swath of voters in the US.

I suppose on the brighter? side, it is worth mentioning C-19 is doing it's own publicity stunt to the same group of voters as it moves into the rural American bible belt. Miles of difference between media noise and your neighbor you shared a couple of six packs with last weekend finding himself in an ICU on a respirator.

[scammed]

here is death rate for students,

lower then at any time the past 4 years

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

[ExpatOilWorker]

30 minutes ago, scammed said:

here is death rate for students,

lower then at any time the past 4 years

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

It actually looks like the worst is over for all age groups.

Interesting that there were a significant under mortality in the 75+ age group in early 2020.

 

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by ExpatOilWorker

[scammed]

8 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

It actually looks like the worst is over for all age groups.

Interesting that there were a significant under mortality in the 75+ age group in early 2020.

 

 

i think that is a re-bounce, the dying are dying at a predictable rate, then came covid and hastened the passing of the dying,

but a re-bounce had to come after that.

there wasnt enough in the store to maintain natural death rate

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

On 8/3/2020 at 6:04 PM, ExpatOilWorker said:

It actually looks like the worst is over for all age groups.

Interesting that there were a significant under mortality in the 75+ age group in early 2020.

 

 

 

 

Back to posting the out-of-date death stats again?

 

Quote

Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death. See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm for more information.