New cases, concert, foreign troops, spark virus surge warning

[Sheryl]

6 minutes ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

The Common Cold didn't die out yet and that's a Corona Virus there's also no vaccine so I think it's too early to predict it will simple die out.
I wouldn't put too much hope in a vaccine either it probably won't be 100% efficient and who knows at this stage about side effects.

 

I said the epidemic would burn out, not that the virus would vanish. Very, very different things.

 

With any organism in pretty much any population, unless it totally wipes the population out, over time epidemic will subside and it becomes just an endemic disease. Typically also becomes less lethal to the host though may become more infectious; this increase in infectivity will be offset though by growing proportion of people who at any point in time have  immunity.

 

At the rate COVID is now spreading it would probably take about 3 years for this to naturally occur. Obviously we all hope a vaccine will shorten that.

[Truth Will Set You Free]

13 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

These people are sent to quarantine, so, technically, should not be a threat in starting the second "ripple".

I think they should be far more concerned about foreign nationals, who appear to cross the porous borders with ease, with having such a large amount of border with neighbouring countries, as was proved a few days ago, with the 18 chinese caught crossing the Mekong river at Chiang Rai.

18 Chinese caught crossing the Mekong river at Chang Rai????????????????? Thailand tourist minister wants to open the door for them. Those 18 must have not read or heard the news.........Plus why would they be trying to get into Thailand illegally?  They must miss the bars, or trying to bring in the virus.. Whats the latest news on them......????????????

[jerolamo]

If they do really test more people in there own country, they will be surprise.

If they do test also the one who die... they will also be very surprise, beause there is more than 2000 people die more than last year in the same time actually... the question should exist to be credible with the actual pandemic world wide problem.

I think the COVID in Thailand, sure, is going slower than other non Asian countries, because of cultural bodies proximity distances, and because also of this very locked border politic choice.

Sure it has a positive impact on COVID spread infection.

 

But there own official number can not be correct. It is definitely out of probability. and as you can see also in many other countries (who are not so restrictive and with no social distances) who don't test too much, there is not too much cases.

 

Sure... no test = no case,

more tests = more cases.

 

Also, look at other countries who have the kind of same hard locked border politic choice made, but who test much more (i mean, try to project to population number also, to be compared correctly). As you can see, there is more infected case (much more), and everywhere there is a link between infected cases and death... a kind of relation it is difficult for some high tech countries to go under...

 

very strange, isn't it ? i can not trust something is out of a statistic or probability's logic.

 

I think there is much more COVID case in Thailand already, and much more people death because of COVID than the official count. I don't think they lie, i think they don't know it (and maybe for some of them, don't want to know the reality as long as it as a price to know).

[jerolamo]

23 minutes ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

The Common Cold didn't die out yet and that's a Corona Virus there's also no vaccine so I think it's too early to predict it will simple die out.
I wouldn't put too much hope in a vaccine either it probably won't be 100% efficient and who knows at this stage about side effects.

yes sure, i do agree with that.

You can also add a UK studies around immunity with this virus (with people already contaminated which body subject made anti-viral solution himself) who should not be valid anymore after just some month (2 or 3 month maximum).

So clearly, you should translate that as: the vaccine should be injected every 2 month (maybe need test before to re-inject).... so 6 times by year. A virus we don't know, as you well said, which can be the side effect(s).  And also, maybe it will not be possible to inject it many times. A vaccine to build that can be ready and safely tested for years, maybe after this COVID-19 no more exist (mutation maybe).

 

I think the business plan who should be maid on this vaccine (and the safety plan closer to it) will be an other one "dirty" plan to abort before to begin. It is difficult to find an the exit there.

[Shaunduhpostman]

From the OP: "Panprapa also revealed details of two Covid-19 scares.

“Some 617 people who attended a crowded luk thung concert in Nakhon Si Thammarat on July 25 have tested negative for Covid-19. Organisers of the Ratchanok “Janey” Suwannaket concert were charged with packing out the venue but failing to impose disease controls such as mask-wearing. Results of tests on about 2,400 other concertgoers will be issued within 2-3 days.”

So, 600 or so concert goers tested negative and the rest we are waiting for the results.  Its as though just by having tested them that that is enough for panic about how the surge is on baby. It no longer matters what the result is. Its almost as though it is admitted that the test is arbitrary anyway. How does this report indicate that the surge for the second wave is on?

 

At least they didn't lie that they tested positive.

 

 

[jerolamo]

33 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

I said the epidemic would burn out, not that the virus would vanish. Very, very different things.

 

With any organism in pretty much any population, unless it totally wipes the population out, over time epidemic will subside and it becomes just an endemic disease. Typically also becomes less lethal to the host though may become more infectious; this increase in infectivity will be offset though by growing proportion of people who at any point in time have  immunity.

 

At the rate COVID is now spreading it would probably take about 3 years for this to naturally occur. Obviously we all hope a vaccine will shorten that.

possible. There is many other scenari possible. Some simulations talk about 66% of the population to be infected for the virus to fall down due to his propagation number (r). But some studies also show that the immunity also disappears after some month (2 or 3). So they are thinking that probably this can stop at this point (sure, if there is no mutation of the virus who will change something in the simulation), but maybe not at all. I read that this virus has already almost 3 different mutated forms (not only low power to destruct life host).

 

difficult to know, i will not put money on prediction with that. The problem of vaccine is also an other one problem to add (the side effect... how long time to seriously be able to provide a safe vaccine ? not 6 month, never...).

Edited August 6, 2020 by jerolamo

[Shaunduhpostman]

8 hours ago, Elkski said:

There is no scientific data that there ever will be herd immunity.   Please post of you are aware of any.    

 

You say they go to 14 day quarantine do no worry but they are in a room  at a hotel.   What about the room next door.  The bus driver, taxi driver, airport  contacts?   What about room service or  maintenance  staff at the hotel.  I hope  Thailand doesn't ever get a real 1st wave of the bad strain ot all you naysayers are going to  be eating your words.  What is your motivation  to throw  caution to the wind?

 

Here is an interview with Oxford Epidemiologist Dr. Suntera Gupta on herd immunity. Perhaps you will find the requested data or links to the data here.

 

https://reaction.life/we-may-already-have-herd-immunity-an-interview-with-professor-sunetra-gupta/

 

 

Edited August 6, 2020 by Shaunduhpostman

[DirtyHarry55]

2 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

I said the epidemic would burn out, not that the virus would vanish. Very, very different things.

 

With any organism in pretty much any population, unless it totally wipes the population out, over time epidemic will subside and it becomes just an endemic disease. Typically also becomes less lethal to the host though may become more infectious; this increase in infectivity will be offset though by growing proportion of people who at any point in time have  immunity.

 

At the rate COVID is now spreading it would probably take about 3 years for this to naturally occur. Obviously we all hope a vaccine will shorten that.

Ok I see what you mean myself I won't be rushing to take the vaccine until it's proven safe which I reckon will be about 2 years.
As far as gaining immunity some exposure to the Virus might be needed which isn't happening in Thailand right now.

[paulikens]

now the world is talking about third waves i really think its time to concede we have to live with this virus,otherwise where do you draw a line under it...on the 10th wave!!